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Simms WR ratings


hmhertz
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14 minutes ago, derp said:

It's interesting, I do think this is a case where football guys would benefit from utilizing basic probability principles. If you want a weapon right now you double dip on day two IMO. We've discussed how they're not likely to take a day one guy and a day two guy, if that's excessive allocation then take two guys on day two instead of a guy on day one and a guy on day three. Teams are so bad at drafting receivers.

I wouldn't mind a trade up into the first so much, I'd probably prefer a trade down from 10 to acquire capital instead of give up capital, especially since if they stick and pick at 10 and it's not a wide receiver I feel like it's going to be a defensive tackle or a linebacker which - while important - defensive tackle is getting old and I don't think top ten on a linebacker is a good use of draft capital. I'd be lying if I told you I didn't think Jordan Davis was a fun pick but I'd also be lying if I told you I didn't think Jordan Davis was a risky pick. I guess Sauce too but I doubt he's there at ten.

I almost think if you're going to let the staff get after their opinion on guys then do something like Watson and Robinson just to get some variety in skill sets. I still think for a team that's almost never going to be in four wide, two high picks risks being overweight on wide receivers. And as much as Davis can be cut after this year...this offseason doesn't make that contract look so bad.

I think if London runs in the 4.6's he probably still goes in the first but there's a chance he slips to the second. Have we ever seen a receiver in the 4.7's go in the first? I can't even think of a 4.6's guy honestly. I know they know he's probably slow but I don't know if the people doing mock drafts genuinely know he's probably slow. Kiper probably thinks he's a high 4.4's guy. Jeremiah is comparing him to Mike Williams who ran high 4.4's at his pro day I believe. I'm probably wrong but I think London's sitting at closer to 20 than 10 right now with the lack of speed, the injury, and not running yet. If he doesn't run at all I think he stays around there, and again if he's 4.6's or lower I see a bubble guy. Hopkins showed more downfield ability in college, ran a 4.57, and went late first in a comparably weak WR class. Even if speed is iffy for evals I don't think we've seen teams discount it except for guys who are absolute behemoths like Mike Evans, and even he ran 4.53 at 230. Kicking way back, USC Mike Williams who was also an absolute jump ball monster and went 10th ran a 4.57 too. I really can't think of a 4.6+ first round guy.

If you cant trade down I would rather just build solid depth that can contribute in rounds 2-4 rather than trade up for someone. I can walk away with a Pierce and a Melton or Robinson in rounds 2-3 and feel decent about the depth and try to make a trade next offseason for the star. I think we're going to see a sizeable shift in how teams operate at the WR position coming up if the packers and chiefs pull off this rebuild.  Trading high priced stars (especially as we see the WR contract value skyrocket) to build controllable depth and be able to rotate 4 good guys instead of having one stud may be the way more franchises go until the market course corrects.  It's going to be interesting because the WR market is insanely high right now at a time where really the market is getting absolutely flooded with good players coming out of college.  Sooner or later teams will pivot (we may be seeing it already), realizing they dont have to pay a crazy price to a guy when they can just draft good players at a regularly deep position in the draft. 

But yes, If we cant trade down to take one in the teens, im all in favor of taking two guys with opposing skill sets in round 2-4 and developing them.  We rotate Wrs so much anyway it would be helpful to have more depth. 

Londons value I feel like is just inflated because of the WR situation in the NFL and the amount of teams in the first round that now need a guy.  While i agree, normally i dont think a 4.6/4.7 guy would be drafted in round 1, his tape and the need and infatuation at the position around the league may keep him in the first round. 

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14 minutes ago, Chrebetfan80 said:

If you cant trade down I would rather just build solid depth that can contribute in rounds 2-4 rather than trade up for someone. I can walk away with a Pierce and a Melton or Robinson in rounds 2-3 and feel decent about the depth and try to make a trade next offseason for the star. I think we're going to see a sizeable shift in how teams operate at the WR position coming up if the packers and chiefs pull off this rebuild.  Trading high priced stars (especially as we see the WR contract value skyrocket) to build controllable depth and be able to rotate 4 good guys instead of having one stud may be the way more franchises go until the market course corrects.  It's going to be interesting because the WR market is insanely high right now at a time where really the market is getting absolutely flooded with good players coming out of college.  Sooner or later teams will pivot (we may be seeing it already), realizing they dont have to pay a crazy price to a guy when they can just draft good players at a regularly deep position in the draft. 

But yes, If we cant trade down to take one in the teens, im all in favor of taking two guys with opposing skill sets in round 2-4 and developing them.  We rotate Wrs so much anyway it would be helpful to have more depth. 

Londons value I feel like is just inflated because of the WR situation in the NFL and the amount of teams in the first round that now need a guy.  While i agree, normally i dont think a 4.6/4.7 guy would be drafted in round 1, his tape and the need and infatuation at the position around the league may keep him in the first round. 

Broad strokes, I do wonder about the league wide infatuation with the position a little. Short of the Rams signing Allen Robinson I’d argue that Miami, Vegas, and Jacksonville are all bad franchises that made those big acquisitions. Miami and Vegas were a little opportunistic as the guys wanted to play there. But KC and Green Bay are pretty well run. While there are buyers there are also sellers and clearly the Jets are in buyer mode - trying to develop a young QB. But as you allude to a little I’m not so sure teams are all interested in being part of this market. I’d think, shy of needing to develop a young QB, the draft a stable and don’t overvalue makes sense. There are just so many guys it’s nearing becoming like RB was a decade or two ago - main difference being you want three guys which is I guess where supply/demand become problematic. But feels like a market that is about to pop, and not in a good way.

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I don’t hate his mock and it gets me thinking a lot about Garrett Wilson and if he’s worth it. 
 

Also, it’s good to be reminded that despite all this draft prospect back and forth - sometimes we just get ‘em completely wrong and in retrospect we learn a bit. Example they gave : Marquise Brown and N’Keal Harry being picked before Debo, AJ Brown, Metcalf in 2019. 

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17 hours ago, derp said:

Broad strokes, I do wonder about the league wide infatuation with the position a little. Short of the Rams signing Allen Robinson I’d argue that Miami, Vegas, and Jacksonville are all bad franchises that made those big acquisitions. Miami and Vegas were a little opportunistic as the guys wanted to play there. But KC and Green Bay are pretty well run. While there are buyers there are also sellers and clearly the Jets are in buyer mode - trying to develop a young QB. But as you allude to a little I’m not so sure teams are all interested in being part of this market. I’d think, shy of needing to develop a young QB, the draft a stable and don’t overvalue makes sense. There are just so many guys it’s nearing becoming like RB was a decade or two ago - main difference being you want three guys which is I guess where supply/demand become problematic. But feels like a market that is about to pop, and not in a good way.

Its just going to be interesting to watch the next few years.  I'm not even really concerned about the Rams, or Jax because they just signed FA's to nice deal or in Jax case an insane over the top deal which will be an outlier.  What is concerning about the market going forward is what Hill and Adams got at close to 30, the market is getting really high for high end WR's, and I dont know when it comes down.  

You look at what GB is going to end up doing.  Rodgers cost X amount and had they signed Adams to a similar deal he got in Vegas thats two players making this massive sum (maybe 40% of your cap?). what room do you have for much else?  Which is why I think we're going to see teams with established QBs sell high on wrs and try to build a solid stable of guys from consistently good draft stocks at the position. 

Which is why the jets are high on Buying one right now.  Zach is on the rookie deal you want to take advantage of that.  I just do not know who else will be available this year. 

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On 3/29/2022 at 4:50 PM, JoJoTownsell1 said:

I like how you so certain Wilson won't be better than both. Especially since there is plenty of talk in Houston about drafting a QB....you know because Mills is just too good for them. Meanwhile, Mac Jones wasn't allowed to throw the ball when it got too windy. So good luck with that type of arm strength playing games in December the rest of his career. 

Wilson was bad last year.  He will be bad next year and the year after 

 

He’s horrible under pressure, stares down receivers and was way overhyped based on one good year in college putting up stats against community college defenses. Simms thought he was being a brilliant contrarian talking him up and he’s regretting it ever since

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I've tended to agree with Simms on a lot over the last few years - I think he's been extremely harsh on Wilson but he is overhyped by some. He'd be my first choice but going top 5 is insanity as it would be for any of these guys. I don't see a particularly high ceiling with him. 

I completely agree with him on London having serious issues. I'm glad someone else highlighted it as people really seem quick to dismiss the concerns about separation or denying they exist - looking at you @bitonti. The tape doesn't lie - He rarely ever creates space for himself. People can point to him having the most contested catches as a positive but it's frankly pretty obvious that his inability to have uncontested opportunities is a factor in that. Maybe London will be as physically dominant at the next level but if the better athletes can disrupt that he has nothing else to fall back on. I'll be pissed if we take someone with such red flags at #10. 

I'm genuinely warming to the idea of Williams at #10 and I think if you remove the injury he's head and shoulders above the rest of this class. The concerns are absurd for the long term and torn ACL's just aren't the game changers they used to be, especially at 21. The problem is this season is pretty much a write off, even if he returns fully healthy it will take a while to get acclimated. I don't think Douglas will go for that given the pressure he is under even if it would be the best thing for the Jets going forward. Douglas' and the Jets failures in the last few years are going to hurt us there. 

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6 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

I've tended to agree with Simms on a lot over the last few years - I think he's been extremely harsh on Wilson but he is overhyped by some. He'd be my first choice but going top 5 is insanity as it would be for any of these guys. I don't see a particularly high ceiling with him. 

I completely agree with him on London having serious issues. I'm glad someone else highlighted it as people really seem quick to dismiss the concerns about separation or denying they exist - looking at you @bitonti. The tape doesn't lie - He rarely ever creates space for himself. People can point to him having the most contested catches as a positive but it's frankly pretty obvious that his inability to have uncontested opportunities is a factor in that. Maybe London will be as physically dominant at the next level but if the better athletes can disrupt that he has nothing else to fall back on. I'll be pissed if we take someone with such red flags at #10. 

I'm genuinely warming to the idea of Williams at #10 and I think if you remove the injury he's head and shoulders above the rest of this class. The concerns are absurd for the long term and torn ACL's just aren't the game changers they used to be, especially at 21. The problem is this season is pretty much a write off, even if he returns fully healthy it will take a while to get acclimated. I don't think Douglas will go for that given the pressure he is under even if it would be the best thing for the Jets going forward. Douglas' and the Jets failures in the last few years are going to hurt us there. 

Simms talks about it late in the podcast, the Jets with Davis and Moore could really use a guy who scares defenses. That’s the first three guys on this list. More than London - who maybe has explosiveness to unpack as he moves from hoops to football full time and maybe he can show that at his pro day but even then it’s a question of whether he’s gotten faster or just runs faster than he plays - and more than the Ohio State guys.

Williams is going to be a first round pick, the other guys might not be. It’s why I’m not so sure they are definitely taking a guy with 4 or 10. They certainly could, and I know opinions of Williams on the board are mixed but he’s ahead of schedule on his rehab, fits what I think they want, and demonstrates toughness which is nice for a speed receiver. But they also might say hey we can get Abraham-Ellis bookends at a premium position with 4 and 10 and can still get a WR or two who suits our needs later in the draft.

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14 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

The problem is this season is pretty much a write off, even if he returns fully healthy it will take a while to get acclimated. I don't think Douglas will go for that given the pressure he is under even if it would be the best thing for the Jets going forward. Douglas' and the Jets failures in the last few years are going to hurt us there. 

This is probably correct...Unfortunately.  JD has played his first 3 years as if time was irrelevant and he wants to do things "the right way" as he says - regardless of the short term consequences.  I think he managed to tie his own hands right now.  

The right move here will be to take Williams at 10.  I really don't think there's a close 2nd to him.  I know it sucks having wait half a year before you start to get much from him - but IMO, it's worth it.

Roll with Davis, Moore, BB and some Cole like JAG - get through that first half a year - and you have a true home run hitter that will keep DC's up at night.

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Simms' evaluation of Drake London is very interesting. Says he's the best 50/50 ball guy he's ever seen. With Drake london it's more like 90/10. Quick and twitchy off the line. Red zone specialist, back shoulder fades. Good route running for a 6-4 guy. Plays bigger that 6-4, in fact. Built like Calvin Johnson (!). Automatic on 3rd and 4. Hot routes on blitzes. Always comes down with the ball. Usc target him 15x per game. No he won't get insane yac like Moore (or crowder). Gets tackled easily.

Chris Simms also says his rankings are going to look different, depending on what teams need. anyone else think he's exactly what ZW needs as a security blanket?

This guy sounds like a poor man's Keyshawn or similar to Mike Evans. If he can run a decent 40 next week, and assuming no Deebo deal or whatever, the Jets' front office will bite. They need a Drake London type more than a Wilson or Olave (neither of which are in Simms' top 5 btw)

as for the rest of Simms rankings, I see the appeal of these other guys especially Pierce. Alec Pierce in rd2 could actually be that dude. but these Jets can't wait until week 8 or next year on Williams, and they can't develop the kid from North Dakota. They need help right now and JD's floundering around on the trade market. 

 

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On 3/28/2022 at 7:35 PM, Jet_Engine1 said:

Captain Hot Takes doesn't have Wilson in his Top 5?

 

How edgy! How avant-garde!!

 

Douche

Maybe he learned his lesson last year when it comes to ranking guys named Wilson.

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Matt Harmon started posting his Reception Perception for the WRs in this draft and he’s high on London. There’s more to it but he had London as elite against zone and comparable to Jamar Chase in man and press. 

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1 hour ago, kdels62 said:

Matt Harmon started posting his Reception Perception for the WRs in this draft and he’s high on London. There’s more to it but he had London as elite against zone and comparable to Jamar Chase in man and press. 

Oh My God Reaction GIF by reactionseditor

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On 3/28/2022 at 3:46 PM, hmhertz said:

 

I like Simms, but this is a terrible list. Garrett Wilson is really good and is going to make him look bad. Olave too, both those guys barring injury will be at very least solid receivers barring injury.

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