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Betting line on Sauce going #4 moved from +1600 to +400 today


Green Ghost
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as per Eliot Crist Twitter. (disclaimer* I have no idea who Crist is, or if he’s relevant. Just posting what I saw.)

as someone who’s been saying for weeks the Jets will take Gardener at 4 and Hamilton at 10 (if available) I’m wondering what made the line change so much?

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Just now, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

If jets go cb and safety at 4 and 10 it would be a great mismanagement of 2 top 10 picks

I dont think so.  I'd prefer that they take Ickey at 4 and Sauce at 10, or Sauce at 4 and London at 10, but if they go Sauce and Hamilton, it would not be a mistake given the character of those two players.  The Jets would like to build a core/identity I would think.  Sauce and Hamilton would be ideal core guys.  They would be "Mangini" picks.

If the Jets can get any combo of two of the players below, it will be a super good draft.

Ickey (probably gone by 4 and for sure gone by ten)

Sauce (will be there at 4 but gone by 10)

Hamilton (there at 4 and at 10, but NO way should it be 4.  10 would be good)

London (probably there by 10 and would be ideal at 10)

Hutch (probably gone by 4, but if there, could be good even though I'd prefer Ickey at 4)

Once again... My dream draft.  Ickey at 4 and Sauce at 10

Consolation.  Sauce at 4 and Hamilton or London at 10

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6 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

Yes, and I think he should be.

I’m wondering why such a big movement with Sauce however. Going from +1600 to +400 in a day is notable, to say the least.

The betting markets and aggregators have gotten so good that it's almost not worth paying attention to the take machine anymore. Almost. The most likely reason for the line on a potential first Jets draft pick to shift this significantly is an official visit. The first pick is always a visit. Gardner's was announced almost a week ago. I really should have been in on this.

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22 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

as per Eliot Crist Twitter. (disclaimer* I have no idea who Crist is, or if he’s relevant. Just posting what I saw.)

as someone who’s been saying for weeks the Jets will take Gardener at 4 and Hamilton at 10 (if available) I’m wondering what made the line change so much?

Joel Klatt says (at 11:53) that Trevon Walker is "in play at #2 with the Lions".

 

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20 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

Yes, and I think he should be.

I’m wondering why such a big movement with Sauce however. Going from +1600 to +400 in a day is notable, to say the least.

Jets had him for a visit and made him cupcakes. Clear smoke tactic. 

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37 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Joel Klatt says (at 11:53) that Trevon Walker is "in play at #2 with the Lions".

 

For what it’s worth, I saw something this morning where the Lions GM said he’s been receiving, and is open to offers to trade out of the #2 spot.

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1 hour ago, Green Ghost said:

Yes, and I think he should be.

I’m wondering why such a big movement with Sauce however. Going from +1600 to +400 in a day is notable, to say the least.

well maybe the answer is who made the jump backwards? someone isnt in the top 4 anymore.

maybe it was one of the Tackles who were 400 and went to 900? maybe this guy finally realized we have 2 Tackle already and it would be stupid to take a 3rd so he moved them back.

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1 hour ago, derp said:

The pre draft lines are usually pretty soft but there are low maximum bets. I imagine there was a bit of action on Gardner because people saw the line was out of whack and they fixed it.

Not a great example but it leaked shortly before the 2018 draft that Mayfield was firmly in play to go first and it took them a bit after the leak to correct it.

Anyway, don’t think the lines mean much of anything, the movement tends to lag news not lead it, they just don’t want to be hurt by having a bad position. Gardner +1600 was a bad line, it got played a little, and they fixed.

agreed- these bets are all low limits maybe 50 dollars or 100 dollars max because everyone involved is guesstimating

mid-to-long range shots are a legit tactic at the horsetrack, that's no way to make money in sportsbooks

To put these "American Odds" into plain English, +400 means the Book is giving Sauce Gardner a 20% chance to go 4 overall. +1600 means 6 percent chance. "implied probabilies. (I used a sports betting calculator) 

Split the difference seems about right. Let's say it's a 10 percent chance just going off the top of my skull. That's not super likely. I don't think the Jets are 20 percent likely to take this player exactly at 4. Given all the other options and possibility. 

also note the bet is not "will the Jets select Sauce?" it's will "Sauce go exactly 4, to any team?" The Jets could trade down to 6, take Sauce and you'd lose that bet. Ouch. 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, THE BARON said:

I dont think so.  I'd prefer that they take Ickey at 4 and Sauce at 10, or Sauce at 4 and London at 10, but if they go Sauce and Hamilton, it would not be a mistake given the character of those two players.  The Jets would like to build a core/identity I would think.  Sauce and Hamilton would be ideal core guys.  They would be "Mangini" picks.

If the Jets can get any combo of two of the players below, it will be a super good draft.

Ickey (probably gone by 4 and for sure gone by ten)

Sauce (will be there at 4 but gone by 10)

Hamilton (there at 4 and at 10, but NO way should it be 4.  10 would be good)

London (probably there by 10 and would be ideal at 10)

Hutch (probably gone by 4, but if there, could be good even though I'd prefer Ickey at 4)

Once again... My dream draft.  Ickey at 4 and Sauce at 10

Consolation.  Sauce at 4 and Hamilton or London at 10

This is an offensive league. Even the best corners are getting torched regularly nowadays with the rules that are in place. That’s why I think it would be foolish to take a cb and a safety with 2 top 10 picks.

I personally think Hamilton is extremely overrated as a prospect. If he’s Ed reed I’d take him at ten. But he’s not. 

if we’re going defense I think it should be edge @4. I’d prefer thibs if he’s available. @ 10 I’d take the best wr which Imo is Jameson Williams. I’d be fine with London too. I also think we should double dip at wr taking another in the 2nd round. 

 

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1 hour ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

The betting markets and aggregators have gotten so good that it's almost not worth paying attention to the take machine anymore. Almost. The most likely reason for the line on a potential first Jets draft pick to shift this significantly is an official visit. The first pick is always a visit. Gardner's was announced almost a week ago. I really should have been in on this.

I wish I knew more about this. You take interns? 

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1 hour ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

If jets go cb and safety at 4 and 10 it would be a great mismanagement of 2 top 10 picks

that would show that joe is definitely no different than izadick and co and it would be the jet like thing to do

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Darnold Schwarzenegger said:

This is an offensive league. Even the best corners are getting torched regularly nowadays with the rules that are in place. That’s why I think it would be foolish to take a cb and a safety with 2 top 10 picks.

I personally think Hamilton is extremely overrated as a prospect. If he’s Ed reed I’d take him at ten. But he’s not. 

if we’re going defense I think it should be edge @4. I’d prefer thibs if he’s available. @ 10 I’d take the best wr which Imo is Jameson Williams. I’d be fine with London too. I also think we should double dip at wr taking another in the 2nd round. 

 

All good points and you may be right.  I'm thinking more in terms of the qualities of the prospects rather than positional value.  Given that the Jets are young and looking to build a core and an identity, I'd prefer they go for the character/leadership guys

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Jets had 7 INTs last year. Felt like we went the first half of the year without a TO. Our DBs have zero ball skills. Probably why the coaching staff isn't as high on Hall.

Sauce is not just good in man coverage, he’s also good in zone and has ball skills. Unless Hutch is on the board, I’m going to add some sauce to this team.

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22 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

All good points and you may be right.  I'm thinking more in terms of the qualities of the prospects rather than positional value.  Given that the Jets are young and looking to build a core and an identity, I'd prefer they go for the character/leadership guys

Since you’re the only one besides myself who thinks Sauce and Hamilton makes sense, I’ll add one more thing to what you said.

Our roster is lacking in a lot of areas, and no one or two rookie picks this year will have a major affect on that. Aside from Hutchison and Thibadeaux, (who will most likely both be gone before we pick at #4) these two seem to be the next best, and complete prospects in this draft.

The only possible “game changer” was the Zach pick, that’s the one that is/was critical to our wins and losses.

We can’t afford to take the 3rd best guy at any position group when the clearly best at another is still on the board.

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3 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

Since you’re the only one besides myself who thinks Sauce and Hamilton makes sense, I’ll add one more thing to what you said.

Our roster is lacking in a lot of areas, and no one or two rookie picks this year will have a major affect on that. Aside from Hutchison and Thibadeaux, (who will most likely both be gone before we pick at #4) these two seem to be the next best, and complete prospects in this draft.

We can’t afford to screw up our picks this year, this team needs above average guys everywhere. The only possible “game changer” was the Zach pick, that’s the one that is/was critical to our wins and losses. Anyone else is, as you said, vital to building the core of a solid franchise going forward.

Agree with all you have said.  Add to that, Ickey IMHO is the best player in the draft.  My big board is Ickey # 1 and Sauce # 2.   I also think Hutch and Thib would be later first round picks in most other drafts.  They are not "special" prospects.  Just solid. 

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9 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

JD goes DB at 4 and DB at 10....

 

star-wars-into-the-garbage-chute-flyboy-1.gif.e53cdf0196859e81b80e03b272ae68a5.gif

I cant believe this would be considered -

it would be criminal to do this 

it would be 2017 all over again -passing on big needs to try and build a championship team from the freaking secondary -

Joe repeating our mistake would be an abomination 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Green Ghost said:

as someone who’s been saying for weeks the Jets will take Gardener at 4 and Hamilton at 10 (if available) I’m wondering what made the line change so much?

I don’t bet. I’d bet against that happening, though. Free money. 

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1 hour ago, Tranquilo said:

Wait, so who do you think we're picking, based off the odds?

That's not really how this works. If I have to guess a pick based on odds, I guess go with the lowest, right? What I'm saying is that the visit factually changes the 'correct' odds on Gardner at 4. And these markets are not so efficient that this super esoteric piece of Jets draft knowledge is going to get picked up as quickly as, say, somebody putting a big bet on Bucs futures. That was worth money and I missed it but at least I can console myself with dur hur it's a derpscreen if I hit myself in the head with a hammer a few times first.

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1 hour ago, Green Ghost said:

For what it’s worth, I saw something this morning where the Lions GM said he’s been receiving, and is open to offers to trade out of the #2 spot.

If Hutchinson goes #1, the Jets will want to trade up for Walker. Hope they don't have too, but as I've been saying for two months.  Walker will be a beast, once he learns the nuances of pass rushing and stays at one spot most of the time.

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13 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

Thibs the favorite at 4

 

Those odds seem about right.  Regardless of the individual player the money is clearly flowing to the Jets taking an Edge rusher at #4, which seems like a pretty safe bet.

I would have expected Ekwonu to be a little lower, maybe +700, not because of the likelihood the Jets go OT but that because, to me, he'd clearly be the OT taken IF the Jets went OT, and not Neal.  Either Neal should be higher or Ikem lower, but not the same.

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1 hour ago, The Crusher said:

I wish I knew more about this. You take interns? 

Sorry. COVID killed live poker and I didn't have enough other stuff going on to justify keeping a bankroll around so I'm out of all advantage play now. I probably would have done this after Black Friday, but at that point it was only going to be a year before the casino opened and I was working at a nonprofit so my gambling hourly was better than work.

The thing you have to remember about this crap is that it's a hustle like everything else. LeBron couldn't make a living at basketball if he had to try to get people to bet him on 1-on-1. Not getting 86ed is way harder than counting cards. There are people out there mathing 16 hours a day who have no idea what they're going to do when they can't get invites to the good games and nobody will take their action.

Your time should be the most valuable thing there is and it is way easier to evaluate the quality of the source of a tip than it is to evaluate the quality of the tip itself. I wish I knew less about this.

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23 minutes ago, jetstream23 said:

 

Those odds seem about right.  Regardless of the individual player the money is clearing flowing to the Jets taking an Edge rusher at #4, which seems like a pretty safe bet.

I would have expected Ekwonu to be a little lower, maybe +700, not because of the likelihood the Jets go OT but that because, to me, he'd clearly be the OT taken IF the Jets went OT, and not Neal.  Either Neal should be higher or Ikem lower, but not the same.

Thibs would be a really good pick.

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