Betting line on Sauce going #4 moved from +1600 to +400 today

[Green Ghost]

1 hour ago, slats said:

I don’t bet. I’d bet against that happening, though. Free money. 

?

 It’s free money betting against any projected combination happening at 4 & 10. Just look at the odds of getting one right. The odds of getting two correct are astronomical. 
So yeah…

 

[Phillyjet]

38 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I could see Gardner at 4 but if so, then no way I could see Hamilton at 10.  Edge or WR or maaaaaybe OL if Ekwonu or Neal drops.  That's pretty much it.

 

With the offer of the 2nds for Tyreek Hill, I came away thinking that the Jets would prefer to not have to use their first round picks on a receiver.  In a perfect world, they'd use their 2s in a trade for a receiver (vs moving up into the first round), and then select a tackle and d-line/edge in the first round.  Unless Fant is resigned, and even if he is resigned, their depth behind him and Becton is really bad.  If 2 (or even 3) edges go off the board in the first three picks, I could easily see them taking their preferred tackle, and then taking their highest rated edge at 10.  If they are unable to swing a trade, then they'll have to make a tough decision about a tackle vs. WR in round 1, particularly at 10.  Would think they highly consider trading back into the first round to come away with all 3.  

[Dwight Englewood]

[varjet]

I don't think there is a meaningful chance in this draft that JD/Saleh do not take an EDGE at 4 or 10.

I really wonder which EDGE will be available at 10.  

I think the EDGEs and WRs will be substantially wiped out at 35.

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

4 hours ago, bitonti said:

agreed- these bets are all low limits maybe 50 dollars or 100 dollars max because everyone involved is guesstimating

mid-to-long range shots are a legit tactic at the horsetrack, that's no way to make money in sportsbooks

To put these "American Odds" into plain English, +400 means the Book is giving Sauce Gardner a 20% chance to go 4 overall. +1600 means 6 percent chance. "implied probabilies. (I used a sports betting calculator) 

Split the difference seems about right. Let's say it's a 10 percent chance just going off the top of my skull. That's not super likely. I don't think the Jets are 20 percent likely to take this player exactly at 4. Given all the other options and possibility. 

also note the bet is not "will the Jets select Sauce?" it's will "Sauce go exactly 4, to any team?" The Jets could trade down to 6, take Sauce and you'd lose that bet. Ouch. 

I'll do props this year if I can use the gofundme to buy a new enclosure for those two pigs in NH who fought off a bear as my charity. Can I get a ruling?

https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-hammy-mary-rebecca 

[bitonti]

3 hours ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

I'll do props this year if I can use the gofundme to buy a new enclosure for those two pigs in NH who fought off a bear as my charity. Can I get a ruling?

https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-hammy-mary-rebecca 

They look delicious. 

[Maxman]

Sauce at 4 to the Jets. Its a lock.

[BurnleyJet]

On 4/1/2022 at 7:10 AM, Maxman said:

Sauce at 4 to the Jets. Its a lock.

Agreed, KT will be taken by the Lions, Sauce is the next best player available in a premium position. If they go Edge or receiver at 10?
 

If it is sauce I figure they will trade back into the First round for either an Edge or Receiver, which ever fall.

[More Cowbell]

On 3/31/2022 at 11:21 AM, Green Ghost said:

as per Eliot Crist Twitter. (disclaimer* I have no idea who Crist is, or if he’s relevant. Just posting what I saw.)

as someone who’s been saying for weeks the Jets will take Gardener at 4 and Hamilton at 10 (if available) I’m wondering what made the line change so much?

What this means is a lot of money is being bet on Sauce

[bla bla bla]

On 3/31/2022 at 4:47 PM, varjet said:

I don't think there is a meaningful chance in this draft that JD/Saleh do not take an EDGE at 4 or 10.

I really wonder which EDGE will be available at 10.  

I think the EDGEs and WRs will be substantially wiped out at 35.

I think we trade back into the first. We were willing to give up both 2nds and a 3rd in the Hill trade. That would get us into the teens if there is a WR we like.

I think the sweet spot is just before the Chiefs and Packers.

[Dunnie]

52 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I think we trade back into the first. We were willing to give up both 2nds and a 3rd in the Hill trade. That would get us into the teens if there is a WR we like.

I think the sweet spot is just before the Chiefs and Packers.

Would be insane if we move back with both 4 and 10 .... stack 2s by just moving back a few spots each.

Edited April 2, 2022 by Dunnie