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JetNation 2022 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Kavyon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon


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I've gone back and forth on Thibs, but it's starting to feel like this could be the Jets opportunity to strike gold in the draft. Classic overthinking and reading into too many things about a prospect. If Saleh signs off on his effort, let's go

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4 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Lions sent 7 guys to his pro day.  Id say they are the front runners for him.

and the Lions are a worst run franchise than we are so if they love him then something is wrong.

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Jermaine Johnson put up a 10’5” at 254 and Karlaftis a 10’1” at 266
All of that plus no vert is concerning.

He also had a longer broad than Hutchinson by 2”. The subtle difference an inch here or there mean absolutely nothing. People use it to solidify their narrative instead of taking it for what it is. 1” below the minimum threshold of an elite broad for an edge defender, not bad at all.


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I keep flashing back to the deep 2015 edge class with Fowler, Beasley, Shane Ray, Bud Dupree, and Randy Gregory.  Top 2 edges busted…. Crap shoot.  Have to trust Joe D and Saleh

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14 hours ago, JetNation said:

Kavyon Thibodeaux

Kayvon Thibodeaux

EDGE, Oregon, #5

 

Measurables

Height: 6050

Weight: 254

Hand Size: 0968

Arm Size: 3318

Wingspan: 7968

 

2022 NFL Scouting Combine

40-Yard Dash: 4.58

Vertical Jump: —

Broad Jump: —

3-Cone Drill: —

Bench Press: —

Film Study

Games Watched: USC 2020 (Pac-12 CG), Iowa State 2020, Fresno State 2021, Cal 2021, UCLA 2021

  • First-Step Explosiveness: ++
  • Bend/Flex: +
  • Length: ++
  • Hand Power/Moves: ++
  • Techniques: ++
  • Run Defense: ++
  • Strength: ++
  • Motor: ++
  • Versatility: ++
  • Football IQ: ++

 

Notes

  • Love playing chess, keeps a board in his trunk
  • Also enjoys pottery
  • Combine: 3rd-best DL 10 Yard Split (1.59)

 

Summary

Kayvon Thibodeaux was a 5-star athlete, and #2 overall player in California entering college. A three-year starter at Oregon, he amassed 35.5 TFLs and 19 sacks, 7 PDs and 3 FFs over 30 games in his career. His first-step explosiveness is top of the class, generating a ton of spring out of his stance. He has a good, not great, bend to get around the tackle’s outside shoulder, and possesses the length (33 ⅛” arms) to out leverage blockers at the point of attack. The best positions to play him are the 5-technique (outside shoulder of the tackle), or the wide–9, famously used in New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh’s defense. Thibodeaux has a range of pass rush moves, including a long arm rush, push/pull, two-hand swipe, and ghost move. While draft analysts have knocked him for his effort/motor, it’s something I did not observe in my study of him. Thibodeaux is a 3-down player, capable of producing against the run or pass, specifically as a pass rusher on 3rd down. He can play with his hand in the dirt, but can also play as a stand up rusher, which allows him to play in both the 4-3 and 3-4 defense.

There are rumors that Kayvon Thibodeaux may end up sliding on night one of the 2022 NFL Draft, and if he is still available when the Jets are on the clock at 4, they would likely be the team to end said slide. Robert Saleh is known for his emphatic love for pass rushers, and New York needs to add more compliments to the defensive line unit already consisting of Carl Lawson and John Franklin-Myers. Thibodeaux will finish as EDGE1 and my #1 overall player, and I wouldn’t be surprised if teams around the league felt the same way.

The post JetNation 2022 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Kavyon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon appeared first on JetNation.com (NY Jets Blog & Forum).

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This is who I want at 4. God willing

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KT feels like high bust potential.  PAC 12 has poor offensive line talent, and KT did not dominate - never had more than 9 sacks.  KT was never dominant in the PAC 12, even though he appears to have great tools.  He feel's like someone who might disappear in the NFL against significantly better offensive linemen.  His production doesn't scream elite (against weak o-line talent), even though his athletic traits are elite/ near elite.   For reference, in 2019 Hamilcar Rashed JR (as a junior) put up 14 sacks in 11 games.  In 2019, KT put up 9 sacks in 13 games (as a freshman - in his most impressive year).  We signed Rashed post draft and he had 0 impact.  KT is arguably a little more athletic but overall did not generate significantly more production than Rashed if you look at their college careers.  Just adding to the dialog for consideration.  Elite athletic traits vs weak competition should have generated more production is the crux of the concern.

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If Jacksonville doesn't draft Walker, the Jets will trade with Detroit and draft him. Let the lions take a chance with KT. For all those talking about J.J. What we're his sack numbers at Georgia. What happened  when he transferred to FSU. There's a reason why he transferred. 

Boy, would that be a Jetsy mistake.


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Didn’t run at the Pro Day, didn’t jump because he said he was trying to avoid injury, did positional drills, and told everyone with a mic that he loves football, really. I wouldn’t draft this guy. This is a dude who misses six weeks with a hamstring pull. 

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17 hours ago, genot said:

If Jacksonville doesn't draft Walker, the Jets will trade with Detroit and draft him. Let the lions take a chance with KT. For all those talking about J.J. What we're his sack numbers at Georgia. What happened  when he transferred to FSU. There's a reason why he transferred. 

No, they won't. Jets are HIGHLY unlikley to move from 4, whether up or back. They will like 4 people enough to stay put and take who falls to them. Walker is very green in terms of his pass rush plan, but his athletic numbers are obviously impressive. If he's there at 4, I could see it, but certainly not worth trading up from 4 to get.

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14 hours ago, DTereman said:


He also had a longer broad than Hutchinson by 2”. The subtle difference an inch here or there mean absolutely nothing. People use it to solidify their narrative instead of taking it for what it is. 1” below the minimum threshold of an elite broad for an edge defender, not bad at all.


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1) Subtle difference are everything when evaluating this level of athlete. To dismiss it is how bad players get drafted early. 

2) KTs broad is not below any threshold he’s just showing less than other similarly ranked prospects.

3) The lack of testing is a bigger red flag because it means that there’s a chance he knows he doesn’t measure up 

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19 hours ago, dbatesman said:


for reference, Travon Walker broad jumped 10’3” and is 18 lbs. heavier than Thibodeaux

Because how high a D lineman jumps determines how good a player he will be in the NFL.

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18 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I thought arm length, 10 yard split, 3 cone and vert were key predictors?

I hear some of this stuff thrown around in podcasts, sometimes cited in the occasional draft article or occasionally by someone on youtube, and I genuinely find it difficult to differentiate between a reliable and unreliable sources.

If you have anything you can share that you've found reliable, please do.

The best thing on the basics was a post on FootballsFuture from like 15 years ago where some dude named Waldo laid out a series of equations he’d come up with to predict success for pass rushing prospects. I’m way oversimplifying, but the tl;dr is that the best edge guys tend to be either explosive and powerful (with the broad and vert used as a proxy) or quick and twitchy (three-cone). The workout numbers were keyed to height and weight to equalize things. The results were pretty impressive. The post is long gone (rumor has it Waldo got hired by an NFL team), but I think I have the formulas saved on my laptop somewhere. I’ll try to dig them up later.

Other people have built on this—Justis Mosqueda came up with something called “Force Players,” which is basically tweaked versions of the Waldo formulas, but his website and equations seem to have disappeared too. You can dig up old tweets where he talks a bit about it, but he explains some of it (sans formulas) here: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2617783-what-scouts-are-looking-for-at-the-combine-from-pass-rushers.

Football Outsiders created SackSEER, which uses the two jumps plus the 40, as well as 3-cone, plus a bunch of other stuff. This year’s version isn’t out yet, but here’s last year’s: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/sackseer-2021

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3 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

The best thing on the basics was a post on FootballsFuture from like 15 years ago where some dude named Waldo laid out a series of equations he’d come up with to predict success for pass rushing prospects. I’m way oversimplifying, but the tl;dr is that the best edge guys tend to be either explosive and powerful (with the broad and vert used as a proxy) or quick and twitchy (three-cone). The workout numbers were keyed to height and weight to equalize things. The results were pretty impressive. The post is long gone (rumor has it Waldo got hired by an NFL team), but I think I have the formulas saved on my laptop somewhere. I’ll try to dig them up later.

Other people have built on this—Justis Mosqueda came up with something called “Force Players,” which is basically tweaked versions of the Waldo formulas, but his website and equations seem to have disappeared too. You can dig up old tweets where he talks a bit about it, but he explains some of it (sans formulas) here: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2617783-what-scouts-are-looking-for-at-the-combine-from-pass-rushers.

Football Outsiders created SackSEER, which uses the two jumps plus the 40, as well as 3-cone, plus a bunch of other stuff. This year’s version isn’t out yet, but here’s last year’s: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/sackseer-2021

I really appreciate this. Thank you.

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11 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

The best thing on the basics was a post on FootballsFuture from like 15 years ago where some dude named Waldo laid out a series of equations he’d come up with to predict success for pass rushing prospects. I’m way oversimplifying, but the tl;dr is that the best edge guys tend to be either explosive and powerful (with the broad and vert used as a proxy) or quick and twitchy (three-cone). The workout numbers were keyed to height and weight to equalize things. The results were pretty impressive. The post is long gone (rumor has it Waldo got hired by an NFL team), but I think I have the formulas saved on my laptop somewhere. I’ll try to dig them up later.

Other people have built on this—Justis Mosqueda came up with something called “Force Players,” which is basically tweaked versions of the Waldo formulas, but his website and equations seem to have disappeared too. You can dig up old tweets where he talks a bit about it, but he explains some of it (sans formulas) here: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2617783-what-scouts-are-looking-for-at-the-combine-from-pass-rushers.

Football Outsiders created SackSEER, which uses the two jumps plus the 40, as well as 3-cone, plus a bunch of other stuff. This year’s version isn’t out yet, but here’s last year’s: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/sackseer-2021

(Vert + 3.5*broad)*(weight/height)/3000)

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5 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

Please excuse my dear aunt sallying my way through this one

Vertical in inches, broad and height in feet. Don't ask me why. The twitch formula itself is next to useless for reasons nobody cares about. Hutchinson is basically a Bosa on the shuttle and cone so I'm sure he qualifies.

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5 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Didn’t run at the Pro Day, didn’t jump because he said he was trying to avoid injury, did positional drills, and told everyone with a mic that he loves football, really. I wouldn’t draft this guy. This is a dude who misses six weeks with a hamstring pull. 

Don't forget leaving the combine early!

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5 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Didn’t run at the Pro Day, didn’t jump because he said he was trying to avoid injury, did positional drills, and told everyone with a mic that he loves football, really. I wouldn’t draft this guy. This is a dude who misses six weeks with a hamstring pull. 

Ojabo lost millions. Can’t really blame him.  He can only lose by testing 

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Everything negative I have seen about Thibs boils down to "the interview" and "leaving the combine early". 

I actually watched the interview and am not parroting what I read elsewhere.  I thought I saw a handsome, articulate and well-dressed young man conduct an interview with the national press at the age of 21.   He spoke clearly and without emotion.  His clumsy attempt to tout his academic achievement led him to slight Alabama - a dumb comment to be sure.  But hardly a reason to knock him as a prospect.

As for the combine, LOTS of players left early because the SCHEDULING was a DISASTER.  Nobody could keep to any sort of schedule.  Read about it.  Nevertheless, he has since turned in his pro day.  He did the missing three cone drill and short shuttle.  His times are fine.  Did he turn in a three cone drill like Hutch?  NO.  Was his score good?  Yes.  And unlike Hutch, Thibs has length and can convert speed to power. 

To me it comes down to this. 

Hutch and some of the others could turn out to be one of the Watt or Bosa brothers.  Thibs could turn out to be Lawrence Taylor.  Really.  If you are going to knock the guy, at least be fair and give an honest comparison to the type of NFL football player he projects to be.

And yes.  I am well aware "that the bus station is filled the the next Lawrence Taylor".   But that is his upside and the reason for all the hype.  Personally, I was surprised to see an articulate young man.  I had imagined a different sort of person emerging from his "number 1" prospect status.  The world has been waiting outside his door since he graduated from high school.

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On 4/1/2022 at 1:36 PM, HighPitch said:

HELL NO this dude is a headcase. Karlaftis, Johnson, Mafe please

Proof other than to just say he is?

Any reason anyone would take Karlaftis over him?  You could get Mafe in the 2nd

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