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Jameson Williams


FidelioJet
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9 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Because that's the nature of medicine, surgery, recovery etc

You find one single surgeon who guarantees a time frame and recovery in general and youre finding a liar

Sure, but then there are risks everywhere, with every one.

You have to weigh his upside over the others vs. his additional injury risk....

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Just now, T0mShane said:

In terms of self-preservation, the best moves for Douglas would be to draft two pass rushers at 4 and 10, and then a bellcow running back and OL in the second. Try to mash your way to eight wins on the ground.

I will amend this slightly.  I would say drafting edge at 4 and that mammoth tackle davis at 10.  This would probably fix the putrid run d the most, and change the time of possession in games that ruined games when the d couldn’t stop the run in the 2nd half.  And yes on offense draft a grinding rb and with those TEs have an efficient, boring offense that can generate first downs and keep games close

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1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

I will amend this slightly.  I would say drafting edge at 4 and that mammoth tackle davis at 10.  This would probably fix the putrid run d the most, and change the time of possession in games that ruined games when the d couldn’t stop the run in the 2nd half.  And yes on offense draft a grinding rb and with those TEs have an efficient, boring offense that can generate first downs and keep games close

Sold

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6 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I am not a professional scout but when I watch tape of the 3 of them - I see one guy in Williams who's explosiveness jumps off the screen, kind of guy that get him in space and he's going to rip off big yardage.

I just don't see that from the other two. 

If that’s what Douglas wants, then the safer move is to go give Carolina a fourth round pick for Robby Anderson, imo.

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15 minutes ago, PackerNation said:

He will fully recover, but no way in hell by June. No NFL team will clear him to practice before week 4 of the season. 

"3rd or 4th round pick" is a bit much. I think he could go late in the first or early 2nd.

And nobody fully recovers from these kind of injuries. I have experience  with this stuff. You aren't  the same, ever. The difference is these are tremendous  athletes that can still play at a high level but it catches up with you the more you abuse it. The human body was not meant to play pro football. 

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11 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Sure, but then there are risks everywhere, with every one.

You have to weigh his upside over the others vs. his additional injury risk....

Not about their knees and their physical ability to play the game.  Thats as basic as it gets.  

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8 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Not about their knees and their physical ability to play the game.  Thats as basic as it gets.  

This isn't complicated - yet you guys are trying to make it complicated.

You talk to the doctors and you are comfortable with the concerns then you take him.  If you're not, then you don't.

If the doctors are telling me he's going to be 100% by June - and that re-injury is a minimal risk - then to me, it's a no brainer to take him over the rest of the mediocre class behind him.

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35 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

See, I feel like this is the weird thing—Wilson had the amazing production and he tested like an elite athlete at the Combine, but he’s a “#2” wideout, but Jameson Williams—who couldn’t beat out either Garrett Wilson or Olave at Ohio State—has achieved some mythical status because he hasn’t done any of the testing. Wilson ran a 4.38. What do we think Jameson would have run—a 4.2? He’s getting the benefit of the doubt because the draft nerds don’t have their little data points that trip them up every year. If Williams was healthy and he ran a 7.0 three cone, all these dudes would have him in the second round, same as they did with DK Metcalf.

Wilson’s combine actually wasn’t that good, it was above average for a draft prospect but pretty run in the mill for a risky first round pick. I wanted to see him show up at 202 and run a 4.44 and instead he showed up at 183 and ran a 4.38 and nothing else was notable. Skinny receivers did okay last year but by in large have not done well after being drafted in the first round.

Williams also had like 50% more receiving yards than any of his counterparts considered sure fire first round picks in this draft class, and was in at least my opinion the guy who made that offense go. You pointed out Smith-Njigba, who completely mapped Wilson and Olave last year. Unlike Wilson, who’s going to be drafted with the expectation he’s a number one receiver, Williams has actually led his college in receiving yards for a year. There are reasons that wouldn’t be a flag for Wilson, and guys end up being stars despite that - but he’s got that, not standout counting stats, not a standout combine, questionable degree of polish…I think the trait that’s getting him drafted in the first round may be the school he attended. He doesn’t stack up with the first round guys in previous classes, really none of them do except healthy Williams.

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28 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

If that’s what Douglas wants, then the safer move is to go give Carolina a fourth round pick for Robby Anderson, imo.

There’s another guy in this draft, Tyquan Thornton, who similar to Anderson has a poor man’s version of this skill set. I’ve been saying the offense needs a field stretcher and that meshes with Douglas’ MO all offseason. Maybe it’s a coincidence that Hill and Metcalf are the names popping up, but I choose to believe I’m right about what he wants haha.

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If Douglas wants Williams then he should do so, and I'm all for it.

However, then he must double down. He should select Williams and another WR using 2 of the first 5 picks. He must have insurance if that's the way he wants to roll the dice. 

Or... if this mystical big trade for a WR occurs, then he can still pick Williams, but he won't need to use a high draft pick on another WR.

 

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23 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

This isn't complicated - yet you guys are trying to make it complicated.

You talk to the doctors and you are comfortable with the concerns then you take him.  If you're not, then you don't.

If the doctors are telling me he's going to be 100% by June - and that re-injury is a minimal risk - then to me, it's a no brainer to take him over the rest of the mediocre class behind him.

There isnt a Dr alive who can guarantee a recovery.  Youre taking a simple concept and ignoring it to make picking an injured player ok and better yet the right move.

Not one single Dr is telling anyone that he will be 100% by June.  Its bad management to draft a player with his injury based on some voodoo Drs claim he'll be 100% in less than 6 months after surgery.  Something no other football player has done.  Hey, maybe some Dr will claim he'll be faster, by a wide margin too

 You didnt learn you lessons from Dee Miliner etc?  

And if he doesnt recover in June or worse by the target date of November you'll be calling for JDs head.

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51 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

Todd Gurley. Same situation. Blew out his ACL in college, drafted high by the Rams. 6 seasons and out of football

My first thought

And really, honestly Gurley had what, 4 good seasons? 2 really good ones?

 

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1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

There isnt a Dr alive who can guarantee a recovery.  Youre making a simple concept and ignoring it to make picking an injured player ok

Not one single Dr is telling anyone that he will be 100% by June.  Its bad management to draft a player with his injury based on some voodoo Drs claim he'll be 100% in less than 6 months after surgery.  Something no other football player has done.  Hey, maybe some Dr will claim he'll be faster, by a wide margin too

Of course not..  But there isn't a Dr. alive that can say someone won't get hurt either.  Injury is a risk with every and all players.  There are although plenty of Dr.'s that can give you odds on additional risks due to his prior injury.

Those are the odds that need to be weighed against his upside over the other WR's.

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22 minutes ago, derp said:

Wilson’s combine actually wasn’t that good, it was above average for a draft prospect but pretty run in the mill for a risky first round pick. I wanted to see him show up at 202 and run a 4.44 and instead he showed up at 183 and ran a 4.38 and nothing else was notable. Skinny receivers did okay last year but by in large have not done well after being drafted in the first round.

Williams also had like 50% more receiving yards than any of his counterparts considered sure fire first round picks in this draft class, and was in at least my opinion the guy who made that offense go. You pointed out Smith-Njigba, who completely mapped Wilson and Olave last year. Unlike Wilson, who’s going to be drafted with the expectation he’s a number one receiver, Williams has actually led his college in receiving yards for a year. There are reasons that wouldn’t be a flag for Wilson, and guys end up being stars despite that - but he’s got that, not standout counting stats, not a standout combine, questionable degree of polish…I think the trait that’s getting him drafted in the first round may be the school he attended. He doesn’t stack up with the first round guys in previous classes, really none of them do except healthy Williams.

But doesn’t Jameson Williams run in that 190 lb range too? I think the DPI rules have brought back the skinny receiver, especially the ones who operate downfield. I like Williams as a prospect and a receiver and all that, but specifically as it relates to the Jets, Douglas can’t take the risk on him. I think any receiver they draft here is going to struggle regardless, but especially one who’s going to be playing catch-up all year. Douglas doesn’t have that kind of rope

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1 minute ago, FidelioJet said:

Of course not..  But there isn't a Dr. alive that can say someone won't get hurt either.  Injury is a risk with every and all players.  There are although plenty of Dr.'s that can give you odds on additional risks due to his prior injury.

Those are the odds that need to be weighed against his upside over the other WR's.

Thats not the point, anyone can get hurt.  But because lots of people are in car accidents it doesnt mean I will.  

And there isnt a Dr alive who will say there is less of a chance of another injury down the road.  Just as there is no way, especially come off of a knee injury that you can predict he will be better than a Wilson.  

Its a risk we're not in the position to take in the 1st

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Just now, Jet Nut said:

Thats not the point, anyone can get hurt.  But because lots of people are in car accidents it doesnt mean I will.  

And there isnt a Dr alive who will say there is less of a chance of another injury down the road.  Just as there is no way, especially come off of a knee injury that you can predict he will be better than a Wilson.  

Its a risk we're not in the position to take in the 1st

And simply this is where we disagree.  There's really no reason to argue back and forth over it.  I get your point, I really do.

I just think - we're in no position to pass on the best player at position of need.  I want to win a championship so for me, it's worth rolling the dice for a potential game changer than drafting a jag+...

 

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14 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

Just stop and think about this for a minute....as a maybe...

With him on the outside, Moore on the other side - Davis in the slot...

You draft Breece Hall at 35

You draft McBride at 38

The OL is already set - If those guys hit near their potential you have a championship caliber offense.  

 

 

 

A dominant offense, that would be something!!

Good call on Moore outside and Davis inside.  Their own performance (stats; usage) tells us this might be the best strategy, even if it’s contrarian to what many in here think of these 2 players.  Follow the data and even more than that maintain flexibility to use them each on the outside and inside, creating mismatches and sewing confusion.

It’s happening.  Thank you Fidelio, thank you!  Sign me up!

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2 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

To be clear though.

Joe was willing to give up 35 and 38 plus $30mm a year for two good years of Hill. 

Honestly, we have no idea how that contract would have been structured but there is a difference between taking a nuclear weapon like Hill and spending the 4th overall pick on a guy that until recently has an injury that was considered a career killer. 

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

In terms of self-preservation, the best moves for Douglas would be to draft two pass rushers at 4 and 10, and then a bellcow running back and OL in the second. Try to mash your way to eight wins on the ground.

That's what I've been screaming for.

 

Quarterback killers in waves. 

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5 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

And simply this is where we disagree.  There's really no reason to argue back and forth over it.  I get your point, I really do.

I just think - we're in no position to pass on the best player at position of need.  I want to win a championship so for me, it's worth rolling the dice for a potential game changer than drafting a jag+...

 

We'll disagree.  You've fallen in love with a dream of getting Hill by drafting Williams.  Thats he'll be perfectly healthy, have a healthy career and be a huge contributor to the team moving forward.  Oh and starting this June, with an unprecedented recovery.  One for the medical books.  

Hes not the best player at a position of need.  Hes possibly the best player at the position if it were December 2021

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I’ve heard he won’t be playing until November. Now it’s being said he’ll be ready to go by June. Hmmm . . . 
 

We need a receiver ready to go. But I would have no problem with JD getting Williams mid to late first round, as long we pick up another receiver first.  Let’s go get AJ Brown or DJ Metcalf and then trade pics and pick up Williams at 20. 

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3 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

A dominant offense, that would be something!!

Good call on Moore outside and Davis inside.  Their own performance (stats; usage) tells us this might be the best strategy, even if it’s contrarian to what many in here think of these 2 players.  Follow the data and even more than that maintain flexibility to use them each on the outside and inside, creating mismatches and sewing confusion.

It’s happening.  Thank you Fidelio, thank you!  Sign me up!

I know it's crazy to think - but this is how close we are.

This is how those championship level offenses happen - you build a soli infrastructure and hit on a few key piece..  Takes some luck for sure - and this is still along shot...but they we are truly in striking distance and that's exciting,

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Jameson is a bit risky to take in the top 10. His deep speed is real but his intermediate game is ehh. Also, hate to say this, but I've seen him in a few interviews, and he might not be the brightest bulb. A great receiver usually has a brain. 

 

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7 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

To be clear though.

Joe was willing to give up 35 and 38 plus $30mm a year for two good years of Hill. 

To be even more clear Hill is a proven commodity and Williams is a dream you're having

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