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The Jets need to be strategic with their top 4 draft picks. I have the answers which I believe the Jets will follow.


Alka
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If the top 3 picks go worst case scenario with Hutch, Thibs and Walker gone I'm still going Jermaine Johnson at 4.  

Get that edge even if you have to reach a little.  JJ won't be available at 10.  WR at 10.  BPA for defense at 35 and 38, ideally IDL and LB.

Maybe snag a RB in the third if one of the top 3 falls there.

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59 minutes ago, Alka said:

Well, I know you make a joke here, but didn't one of the premier draft mock experts mentioned in another thread just mock the Jets getting both Gardner and Hamilton with the #4 and #10 picks?  

That's because they know doing that gets clicks. 

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1 hour ago, varjet said:

Let's say the Jets take Ekwenu at 4.  No trades.  Then what?

Let's say Wilson is taken before 10.  Then what?  London, or an EDGE like Karlaftis of JJohnson?  

I’m all about trading back into the 1st.

If we go for bpa at 4. Say Ekwonu or Sauce

Then grab a WR or Edge at 10. Whichever one you dont grab, you jump back into the 1st with 38 and 69 to grab the other. Aside from Hutch, I dont see much of a difference between the edge guys that will go top 10 vs back half of the first.

I would love to edge at 4, but all these guys look risky. Edge at 4 feels forced. WR even more so.

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I believe the jets are building this thing to be a super bowl contender in 2025 - 2027.  To be strategic, the jets will be trading both 2nd round picks and moving back up to the first round.  For no other reason then the 1st round fifth year option.  4 years from now if everything goes the way Douglas is planning it he will need to sign Wilson and AVT.  If he drafts and hits on a player in the 2nd or anywhere else, that’s a problem.  Thinking years out, Douglas needs to trade back in for the benefit of the 2027 season.

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1 hour ago, David Harris said:

If the top 3 picks go worst case scenario with Hutch, Thibs and Walker gone I'm still going Jermaine Johnson at 4.  

Get that edge even if you have to reach a little.  JJ won't be available at 10.  WR at 10.  BPA for defense at 35 and 38, ideally IDL and LB.

Maybe snag a RB in the third if one of the top 3 falls there.

JJ won't be available at 10?  You want to pick your 4th choice at a position when selecting 4th?  Sounds crazy to me.  I hate being at the end of a run.  The Seahawks took Bruce Irvin?  Hey, let's take Coples!

Honestly, IMO, if you think there isn't that much drop off to Karlaftis and JJ, that is more reason to take Gardner.  Get him at 4 and you'll still have a solid edge at 10.   

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2 hours ago, slats said:

I think the pure BAP type draft strategy only works if you either have no talent at all or a stacked roster. Otherwise, specific needs need to be addressed. Positional value is much more important up high, too. With two top ten picks, the Jets need to select premium positions. For me, that takes Hamilton right off the table. Next off the board are the OL. The Jets do not need another OL in the first two rounds this year. JD has done a solid job on the OL, but still has other needs. I’m okay with Sauce, as I generally feel CB is a premium position, but I’m not sure that it is as much in this defensive system. 
 
I’ve been saying Edge and WR all along, and nothing has happened since the end of last season to change my mind on that. Although I definitely believe that Douglas will be very eager to trade back and add 2023 draft picks as a part of the deal, but he needs a trade partner to do that. 

I agree. Thats why I said positional value and need HAS to still play a role. However, when drafting in the top 10 of Rd. 1 I don't want the Jets passing on the top 2-3 guys on their board to take a WR because its a major need- for example. If Ekwonu or Sauce are sitting there at 10 and we addressed Edge at 4, I'm not taking a WR unless he's at the top of the Jets board. Thats all I'm really saying.  

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8 minutes ago, PepPep said:

If Ekwonu or Sauce are sitting there at 10 and we addressed Edge at 4, I'm not taking a WR unless he's at the top of the Jets board. Thats all I'm really saying.  

I’d consider Sauce, but happily pass over the OT. 

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20 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

JJ won't be available at 10?  You want to pick your 4th choice at a position when selecting 4th?  Sounds crazy to me.  I hate being at the end of a run.  The Seahawks took Bruce Irvin?  Hey, let's take Coples!

Honestly, IMO, if you think there isn't that much drop off to Karlaftis and JJ, that is more reason to take Gardner.  Get him at 4 and you'll still have a solid edge at 10.   

Yes it'd be a bummer but I don't view it the same way for this reason;  if Joey Bosa, Nick Bosa, and Myles Garrett all came out the same year it'd be a mistake not to take one of them because the other two were taken already.  The strength of this draft is at Edge.  I still think a Jermaine Johnson does much more for this defense than any CB.  Lean into the strength of the draft and secure an Edge. 

 

Jermaine Johnson is a cut above Karlaftis (IMO) and any guys that would be available in the second round.  So people can pontificate about getting the best value at 4 but then talk themselves out of taking a good prospect at the most important position on defense, thus leaving a gaping hole.  If Jermaine Johnson will go in the top 8 no matter what then just take him at 4 if the top 3 are gone.  Again this is worst possible case scenario, hopefully a QB and OL go ahead of us.  Really hoping a trade up ahead of us happens because that means QB.

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31 minutes ago, David Harris said:

Yes it'd be a bummer but I don't view it the same way for this reason;  if Joey Bosa, Nick Bosa, and Myles Garrett all came out the same year it'd be a mistake not to take one of them because the other two were taken already.  The strength of this draft is at Edge.  I still think a Jermaine Johnson does much more for this defense than any CB.  Lean into the strength of the draft and secure an Edge. 

 

Jermaine Johnson is a cut above Karlaftis (IMO) and any guys that would be available in the second round.  So people can pontificate about getting the best value at 4 but then talk themselves out of taking a good prospect at the most important position on defense, thus leaving a gaping hole.  If Jermaine Johnson will go in the top 8 no matter what then just take him at 4 if the top 3 are gone.  Again this is worst possible case scenario, hopefully a QB and OL go ahead of us.  Really hoping a trade up ahead of us happens because that means QB.

I'm a BPA guy.  I can understand this if you think JJ is that good.  I'm kind of mixed on him.  I tend to be devils advocate on picks and I see the negatives of everybody and Johnson is an older prospect that wasn't statistically dominant until he transferred.  On the other hand he is a high motor guy that ticks all the boxes athletically.  He is probably high on the Jets list since they really seem to value the senior bowl and he supposedly had a great week of practice.  I tend to think that 4 is crazy rich for him, but we will see.

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4 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I'm a BPA guy.  I can understand this if you think JJ is that good.  I'm kind of mixed on him.  I tend to be devils advocate on picks and I see the negatives of everybody and Johnson is an older prospect that wasn't statistically dominant until he transferred.  On the other hand he is a high motor guy that ticks all the boxes athletically.  He is probably high on the Jets list since they really seem to value the senior bowl and he supposedly had a great week of practice.  I tend to think that 4 is crazy rich for him, but we will see.

I share your concerns about him.  The age really bothers me.  So it comes down to the Jets grade on him, if he's in their top 10 and the other 3 guys are gone then I'm in the boat to just take him unless they have a Jalen Ramsey grade on Sauce.

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10 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

I'm a BPA guy.  I can understand this if you think JJ is that good.  I'm kind of mixed on him.  I tend to be devils advocate on picks and I see the negatives of everybody and Johnson is an older prospect that wasn't statistically dominant until he transferred.  On the other hand he is a high motor guy that ticks all the boxes athletically.  He is probably high on the Jets list since they really seem to value the senior bowl and he supposedly had a great week of practice.  I tend to think that 4 is crazy rich for him, but we will see.

JJ didn't run agility drills, fyi. So he didn't check off all the athletic boxes from my perspective either.

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5 hours ago, Alka said:

I have way too much time on my hands.  I have done countless mock drafts, and over the course of time, I have realized that there is a definite trend that I believe the Jets must see as I do.

And that is, that there are at least 10 cornerbacks/safeties in this years draft that are very solid, and at approximately  5 of these draftees will be available at the #35 spot and #38 spot.  All 10 of these prospects are deemed worthy of either a 1st round pick, or 2nd round pick, and I can see every one of them as potential starters going into this next season.  In addition, there will be at least 2 solid, potential starters for linebacker at the #35 and #38 spot as well.

So, why is this so important?  The answer is clear.  By the #35 spot, the top edge rushers will be gone, and the top wide receivers will be gone.  The Jets need edge rusher and wide receiver, and if the Jets do in fact stay calm and focused, they must stick to the plan and get both players in the top 10.

At #35 and #38, the Jets will be in great shape to draft a potential starter at cornerback, safety and linebacker.  

This is the way the Jets will go in my opinion.  I don't care if Sauce or Kyle Hamilton is available at the #10 spot.  There will be solid players for them at the top of the second round, and they must stay focused and understand the strength of this years draft.  

I'll bite ALKA.  While I agree that the Jets MUST come away with one of the top five WRs, the only edges worth the #4 pick are Hutch and Thibs.  After that it is a very large PILE of the same guy.  Who is better, Ebiketie or Walker?  We will not know until they play.  There are 14 of them.  No need to rush, take what's left over.  Nearly half a round worth and they will all be gone by the end of the 2d.  I see warts on every of these WONDERFUL edges.  I covert these Edges.  But I cannot lose sight of value. 

The Jets may not pick at #4 for a long time.  We have to come away with Thibs, Hutch, Cross, Ekwonu, Neal or TRADE BACK for value.   

Obviously - if Thibs and  Hutch are gone - I want to trade back.  If I cannot, I do the right thing and take the Tackle.  Let them fight it out and make a decision.  It is not like we have a settled situation at tackle (those who drone on endlessly can drone on, it changes nothing).  Becton cannot be relied upon, Fant is likely to walk (the Jets will not offer his free market value which is at least the Armstrong contract (4 years 15 per) and there is no depth on the team for LT.  Nor is there much depth at LT in this draft.  After the top guys, all I see is Petit-Friere and you would have to overdraft him at 69 or go into the season with no plan at all.  Just nuts.

As for Safety, unlike so many drafts - this one is loaded with FREE SAFETIES.  Which is what we need.  I would take two in the fifth and call it a day.  Corker, Woods, Monday, McKinnely.  It is just loaded.  There are more too.  Both will make the team and we have as good a chance to hit on one as we do in the 2d.  Safeties are like that.  So are tight ends.  So are running backs.  In THIS draft, it is also true of linebackers (but we should be on the lookout earlier and splurge if one falls).  We should  do the same thing there.

The only thing that attracts me to Sauce is the increasing number of draftniks who claim he is the best prospect in the draft.  But I generally agree with your analysis.  If we are forced by NFL stupidity to pass on WRs at 4 & 10, then we have to bite the bullet and move up from #35 before the last one is gone.    Lots of second banana WRs too.  I would double dip and be buyers throughout the 3d. 

Ideally, the Jets can trade back from 10 and from either 35 or 38 and add picks.  This draft is just loaded with what the Jets need to add to avoid giving waiver wire players starting snaps. 

Here's hoping.

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15 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

JJ didn't run agility drills, fyi. So he didn't check off all the athletic boxes from my perspective either.

Yeah, I didn't see him run the 3 cone, but he ran the "pro shuttle" in 4.20 at his pro day, which is a tenth better than Thibodeaux.  IIRC, Thibodeaux's 3 cone was alarmingly in the not a pass rusher range.

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6 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Yeah, I didn't see him run the 3 cone, but he ran the "pro shuttle" in 4.20 at his pro day, which is a tenth better than Thibodeaux.  IIRC, Thibodeaux's 3 cone was alarmingly in the not a pass rusher range.

I missed those, thanks for clarifying. Yeah, above 7 3-cone is bad, especially with an apparent 7.23 and  sub 10 foot broad jump as well. Not great.

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12 minutes ago, clayton163v said:

We have to come away with Thibs, Hutch, Cross, Ekwonu, Neal or TRADE BACK for value.   

Gracias no on the bold. You may also drone on, but taking OL in the first round three years in a row is a terrible way to build a team. That’s why it’s never done. Douglas has done enough on the OL where it’s probably, right now, the strongest position group on the team. That’s not where you spend the fourth pick in the draft when you have a bunch of other holes.

I think JD would like to trade back from there but, if he can’t, I will not have a problem with him taking the third Edge or first WR there. Sauce would surprise me. I wouldn’t hate it, but I wouldn’t love it, either. 

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1 hour ago, David Harris said:

I share your concerns about him.  The age really bothers me.  So it comes down to the Jets grade on him, if he's in their top 10 and the other 3 guys are gone then I'm in the boat to just take him unless they have a Jalen Ramsey grade on Sauce.

Why is age such a concern? If he delivers youll get 4 or 5 of his prime years then he will go elsewhere as a free agent

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18 minutes ago, slats said:

Gracias no on the bold. You may also drone on, but taking OL in the first round three years in a row is a terrible way to build a team. That’s why it’s never done. Douglas has done enough on the OL where it’s probably, right now, the strongest position group on the team. That’s not where you spend the fourth pick in the draft when you have a bunch of other holes.

I think JD would like to trade back from there but, if he can’t, I will not have a problem with him taking the third Edge or first WR there. Sauce would surprise me. I wouldn’t hate it, but I wouldn’t love it, either. 

You do not use the 4th pick to fill holes.  It is precious.

image.jpeg.8c587940f6ed003088c8074fc17f768e.jpeg

You take the hard to find 10 year starter who has a chance to get the gold jacket and the ring.  That means QB, Edge or OT.   This draft is filled with Edges and we bought Zach at great cost and it must last at least two more seasons.  

That leaves OT and there are three worthy of the #4 pick.  Everybody else can be had with a #10 pick.  Draft in and draft out.  Year over year.  

But this year, we pick 4th. 

 

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4 hours ago, varjet said:

Let's say the Jets take Ekwenu at 4.  No trades.  Then what?

Let's say Wilson is taken before 10.  Then what?  London, or an EDGE like Karlaftis of JJohnson?  

I would go with London at the #10 spot in that scenario.  I think it is a "must" that the Jets improve at wide receiver, and with Ekwonu at tackle, and our upgraded right guard and tight end group, we could have a hell of an offense, don't you think?

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34 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

Why is age such a concern? If he delivers youll get 4 or 5 of his prime years then he will go elsewhere as a free agent

Breakout age in college is a good indicator of pro success. Ideally you want guys to be top producers by age 19 or 20 in college, thus showing they’re superior to their peers and excellent prospects. Jermaine Johnson wasn’t that productive until age 22. 
 

Breakout age isn’t the end all be all, but it’s a useful tool. 

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Uh oh……

NCAA%20178x142%20DarkGrey.png
QB, COLLEGE PLAYER
Malik Willis

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports that Malik Willis is scheduled to meet with the Panthers and Falcons.

The Panthers hold the No. 6 pick in the draft, with the Falcons at No. 8. Willis will meet with other teams and has already met with the Steelers, Saints, Giants, and Titans. Still, it's notable that two teams in the top 10 are showing clear interest in the Liberty quarterback. Willis has generated top 10 buzz throughout the pre-draft process, given his rocket arm, pinpoint placement on deep throws, and high-end rushing ability. Willis also has major red flags, most notably his propensity to take sacks and lack of intermediate production. Daniel Jeremiah did not include Willis in his late-March first-round mock draft, and Peter King believes that he will need a full redshirt season. If Willis is selected top 10, his franchise is very likely to commit to developing him, even if it takes multiple coaching regimes.
 

If Willis goes either 6 or 8, then Jets MAY still be able to trade back, but not for the haul if Willis were to drop to 10 and a team like the Steelers/Minnesota/NOLA may not give the draft haul we’d hoped for a team trading up to 10. I doubt any team values Willis as high as 4

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1 hour ago, HighPitch said:

Why is age such a concern? If he delivers youll get 4 or 5 of his prime years then he will go elsewhere as a free agent

You get 21 year olds dominating at college and they have no ceiling.  Jermaine Johnson at 24 is close to maxed out

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7 hours ago, peekskill68 said:

What exactly are you basing that on?  If you go by salaries based on position, after QB, Edge and WR are pretty close. But then comes IDL, LT and CB all lumped together.  It is a premium position based on what teams are having to fork over to retain talent...

I'm going on among other things common sense. The basic idea is you can get top CB later when other positions that we need - edge OL etc - the top guys are gone. That is just based on the draft, then you throw in our team deemphasized the CB position in our system then it makes even less sense to spend a top 10 pick. Then on topo of that we just brought in Reed to fill our CB 1 hole and we still have Hall etc. for the CB2 3 spots. well again it all reenforces the logical conclusion that spending a top 10 pick on CB is silly when you can easily grab a top guy in round 2 or 3, if you even draft one, which we don't really need to do.

This of course is all be design to by Joe D, our team having the flexibility to draft one or not this off season. Not to mention the fact that the very best CB ever drafted was later in the draft too.

Do you disagree with any of what I have said? and if so what? I do think you are rigth that CB is becoming a more expensive piece, Saleh agrees with you too, that is why his system takes advantage of it, let other team waste their money/draft captiol on CB's

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8 hours ago, peekskill68 said:

What exactly are you basing that on?  If you go by salaries based on position, after QB, Edge and WR are pretty close. But then comes IDL, LT and CB all lumped together.  It is a premium position based on what teams are having to fork over to retain talent...

Also lets say you hit! it out of the ball park you know, i mean this dude is revis - cool. You got that one WR locked down but still ahve no pass rush, how you think that will go? Now probably you are not going to have the next revis - I know I know hard to believe- now who you got? some rook that's at CB3 maybe CB2 at best and a liability? why not have that guys like hall drafted late than you first rounder...just the more you think about it, it become more and more of a ridiculous idea.

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8 hours ago, rangerous said:

i don't really care much if they take a corner in the first round or second.  the key is to get those  impact players with the 4th and 10th picks.  and if this draft is as level as people say then they should also get some good players with the second round picks.  if they can emerge with 4 starters then douglas has done his job well.  if he adds some good depth then it's all the better.

Ickey at #4, Jermaine Johnson at #10, use 35 and 38 to trade up if the Jets want to get WR3, WR4, etc.  Somebody like Burks or Olave is probably going to be available in the late teens to early 20's.

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3 hours ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

Hutchinson excepted, they're all kind of not great.

What are your thoughts on Walker? I only watched two of his games and they were the same two everyone else watched, so I won’t pretend to know anything about him beyond the Combine numbers.

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