Putting the puzzle together

[bitonti]

6 hours ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

You do realize you're advocating for a "depth" pick at #4 overall? Unless Becton is toast, that would be an enormous waste of resources when there are serious holes at other skill positions that need high quality starters. I can fully understand drafting a tackle or center/guard in rounds 3 or later, but not in the first round or even the second.

Fant is on the last year of his deal. He wants decent Charles Leno plus money. Maybe 13 or 14 per season. 

JD would rather draft his replacement 

[Adoni Beast]

1 hour ago, Long Island Leprechaun said:

But then it's not a depth pick. That changes the equation, as I said.

Indeed it does.

[jetblue95]

1 minute ago, hit its said:

Whose to say that u wait until 10 and Cross in also gone. We know the Giants are picking one for sure. I think if you can get a blue chip tackle @ 4 you run to the podium 

 

again, why do the jets need to use a 1st round pick as tackle DEPTH?

if joe and the staff are confident in becton (i'm leaving the judgement to the people who actually know him and work with him on a daily basis, not posters on a message board) and they already have fant, why should they allocate a valuable resource to tackle depth?  they can draft a tackle with a non-1st round pick, they can sign a free agent, be it one currently available or one who inevitably becomes available after the draft, or they can make a trade.  there are multiple ways to acquire tackle depth that don't require using picks 4 or 10.

[hit its]

9 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

 

are the options limited to using the #4 pick or doing nothing else to address tackle depth?  

But your point is well taken, we picked up Moses last yr and he played well. Kinda wish they had resigned him. 

[hit its]

2 minutes ago, jetblue95 said:

 

again, why do the jets need to use a 1st round pick as tackle DEPTH?

if joe and the staff are confident in becton (i'm leaving the judgement to the people who actually know him and work with him on a daily basis, not posters on a message board) and they already have fant, why should they allocate a valuable resource to tackle depth?  they can draft a tackle with a non-1st round pick, they can sign a free agent, be it one currently available or one who inevitably becomes available after the draft, or they can make a trade.  there are multiple ways to acquire tackle depth that don't require using picks 4 or 10.

I think u just answered your own question. If JD and staff do not believe in Becton, the possibility of OT @ 4 is pretty high. 

[jetblue95]

Just now, hit its said:

I think u just answered your own question. If JD and staff do not believe in Becton, the possibility of OT @ 4 is pretty high. 

 

well that is not acquiring tackle depth.  that is covering for your own screw up, if they don't believe in becton so shortly after drafting him.

what i initially responded to was your post asking what happens if becton or fant get hurt?  you seemed to indicate they needed to get insurance for such possibilities by using the 4th pick in the draft

"If we don’t go OT @ 4, and Fant or the oft injured Becton go down early, who exactly is playing OT for this team ? That is a recipe for QB suicide"

i said they don't need to use the #4 pick for insurance.

[slats]

33 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

Look, even if Becton was solid, we'd still have an urgent need at right tackle for this draft.  Fant right now is a question mark, even off his best year.  And Becton is far from solid right now.

I’m sorry, but this is ridiculous.
 
Fant was always a LT prospect, playing out of position in his first season. Becton always projected better as a right tackling mauler. There’s no need, let alone an urgent one. 
 
Still available in free agency: Duane Brown, Riley Reiff, Eric Fisher, Brandon Shell (last two just 30 years old). Also guards like Daryl Williams and Trai Turner as AVT is also capable of moving outside. It is absolutely not a situation that requires the #4 pick of the draft. 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

3 minutes ago, slats said:

I’m sorry, but this is ridiculous.
 
Fant was always a LT prospect, playing out of position in his first season. Becton always projected better as a right tackling mauler. There’s no need, let alone an urgent one. 
 
Still available in free agency: Duane Brown, Riley Reiff, Eric Fisher, Brandon Shell (last two just 30 years old). Also guards like Daryl Williams and Trai Turner as AVT is also capable of moving outside. It is absolutely not a situation that requires the #4 pick of the draft. 

Also there's a thing called extending players or tagging them. Becton is by far the bigger question mark, not Fant. If the Jets can't make something happen, worry about it later, not now when there's bleeding needs elsewhere. Draft a developmental tackle in the 5th or see who's available by the end of camp as insurance and move on. I would suggest using a 6th, but we needed Joe Flacco to moonlight against the Dolphins last year.

[Fantasy Island]

6 hours ago, Guilhermezmc said:

Its April 2022 and people still call Mekhi "Bechton"

Luncheon?

[Larz]

It’s a farm system. Let expensive players walk, draft cheap young guys , fill some potholes in FA 

there is no master plan 

Keep the costs in check, scandals low and the fans looking to next year 

J!

[JohnnyLV]

7 hours ago, doitny said:

so your picking a guy at 4 to be a backup then? or does Fant the guy who gave up 1 sack all year get benched? or does Becton not even get a 3rd year?

funny thing is Laken the guy we just got has went down a similar path. a #1 pick by Det. traded after 2 years for a 5th rd pick to SF and is now one of the most sort after OG in the game. 

and thats the plan we are following. the great Detroit Lion plan. since 2015 the year Laken got drafted they have used 4 out of 7 first rd picks on the OL. in the same time Buffalo had zero, but you can pick any good team and they all do the same. except us and Detroit. 

thats when you throw BAP out the window. or we become the NY Lions. hows that working out for them?

last year we had a good OL with one 1st rd pick, Fant (UDFA), LDT and Moses (6th rd), and Mcg (5th). and Moses was signed in July i believe. LDT was a mid season trade. you can get good OL. there a dime a dozen. 

but what you cant get are good WRs and Edges. and neither should be pushed to rd 2 when the top 7 or more are gone when at 4 and 10 we can get the best WR and one of the top Edges. if you got to reach for them then reach, nobody is going to care years from now if Wilson or Landon are good that we took them at 4 instead of where Mel Kiper told us to get them. 

WR and Edges make a difference. they win games. not 1st rd OL. why cant we following the rest of the NFL, the winning franchises instead of the losing ones? 

You could I think make a good argument that backup OL that can play both tackle spots and guard like Icky is worth more to a team than most starters. OL rarely get through a season healthy, and we lose Fant next year and still control him for 5 years. OL is in no way a bad pick

[T0mShane]

Gonna be some mix of Travon Walker, Trevor Penning, and/or an IDL

[jetstream23]

5 hours ago, bitonti said:

Fant is on the last year of his deal. He wants decent Charles Leno plus money. Maybe 13 or 14 per season. 

JD would rather draft his replacement 

The very reliable Mekhi Becton is the ONLY starting caliber OT under contract for 2023 with the Jets.

It continues to confuse me that so many people think the Jets have three or four bigger roster needs than OT over the next few seasons.  We're drafting this year with the goal of pushing for the playoffs in the 2023 season.

[slats]

11 hours ago, johnnysd said:

OL rarely get through a season healthy

What? 

[Scott Dierking]

22 hours ago, Warfish said:

I'll be honest, I don't think it's a "who", I think it's a what.

I've laid this argument out several times, many don't agree with it and I respect that. 

But I believe that supporting Wilson and the Offense trumps doing the usual "win the draft, draft the BAP value and crush the Draft Points Chart!" methodology so often favored by some fans.

Wilson is desperate for support on O at the skill positions.  While I like Moore, Davis is a ? IMO, Berrios is KR and a #4/depth WR (not a starter) and Mims is a bust on his last chances unlikely to turn it around here.  We're basically, today, betting our QB future in the NFL on....Moore.  Who missed alot of time last year.  It's too risky.

I'm unimpressed with the FA TE's, they're better than what we had, but not by that much tbqh.  They won't move the needle much on this offense. 

So I'm 100% for a WR in the top 10.  The best one we can get.  We can debate all day who that is, but that's my position, get the best WR possible at (likely) #10.  I'm unmoved by the "well, the 2nd and 3rd rounders are always just as good, just look at these 1 in 20 cherry picked examples!" argument.  Demonstrably that belief has failed for this franchise for well over a decade+.  Including with Mims now.  We always draft the 19 failures, never the 1 that succeeds in those rounds.  Guess it depends on your faith in JD in those mid-rounds, IMO his resume doesn;t look so good there so far.

Wilson is my guy at WR, primarily for his comps to McLaurin, but honestly, I could be convinced for Olave, or even one of the other guys at WR.  I'm less about the player (as much as I like what I read about Wilson) than I am the position.

And yes, a WR moves the meedle and impacts us immediately IMO, finally making our WR's not a material weakness for this franchise.

As for the other pick, I'm more than happy with Defense.  Edge is clearly a desperate need (And Lawson given his injury cannot and should not be counted on to be the same guy he was, and even if he is, he was mostly a pressures, not a sack guy anyway).  So edge is fine.  Sauce at CB is probably fine.  No Safety or DT tho, that's lunacy.  Literally repeating the mistakes of the past verbatim.

I appreciate many hate this idea, and prefer to strictly draft BAP.  Like I said, I respect their beliefs, and acknowledge they could be right.  But I'm not betting Wilson's future on that.  As of now, Wilson is a bust.  I'm doing my damn'est to make sure he isn't one if I were GM of this team.

Obv. this all changes if we trade for McLaurin, or some other #1 WR before the draft.  I'd be more open to Defense/Defense (Edge and CB sounds good) in that scenario.

Very impressive and you have done an excellent job here. 

I say all that, but I feel it is incomplete. YES(!!!!!), "what" is very important. But, we (and I am looking at YOU, Mr Warfish, because you have adroitly exhibited football team building acumen) need more.  "What" does not suffice in this case. That is because, our own GM who will get praised or criticized will be graded by "Who". 

JD will not have the leash at the end  of next season to say , "well, I tried to get Wilson a WR to compliment his style, I just picked the WRONG WR. Oh well, I still believe the positional analysis need was correct, better luck to me next time". Nope. Doesn't have that luxury. Nor should.

OK, let's sharpen our probe. And examine the exact "WHO" fits our team that will create a difference.

Me? I don't know. The only analysis I have given on this board, based upon watching players on a repeated basis over their career is:

   -Johan Dotson would be tremendous early round pick in the 2nd for some team. His hands, his route running, his ability to change on the fly of a route and meet the ball are exceptional. He is what the Broncos wish KJ Hamler was.

   -Arnold Ebikitie. A while ago I gave a synopsis of this PSU DE. I saw he was being projected as early as the early 2nd round. Personally, I would not take him before the 3rd round. For me, he was often a one trick pony with his moves, and NFL OT's will pick that up. He has quickness, a fair motor, but not necessarily great. Maybe he got poor coaching at Rutgers before PSU, and is just learning the game. I don't know. But he feels like a project.

That's all I got.

[the Claw]

12 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

The very reliable Mekhi Becton is the ONLY starting caliber OT under contract for 2023 with the Jets.

It continues to confuse me that so many people think the Jets have three or four bigger roster needs than OT over the next few seasons.  We're drafting this year with the goal of pushing for the playoffs in the 2023 season.

Sure, but there’s a whole other offseason between now and then. Why draft one now and have him ride the bench until something happens when this team needs an infusion of talent all over the field. It’s not like there isn’t going to be any zone-centric tackles next year. Draft a guy for depth on day 2 or 3 as insurance for this year, not day 1. 
 

[JohnnyLV]

2 hours ago, slats said:

What? 

I was saying that in recent NFL seasons offensive lineman are injured a LOT. There are very few Mangolds and Bricks in the NFL, so depth on the OL is becoming more and more important.

[jetstream23]

5 hours ago, the Claw said:

Sure, but there’s a whole other offseason between now and then. Why draft one now and have him ride the bench until something happens when this team needs an infusion of talent all over the field. It’s not like there isn’t going to be any zone-centric tackles next year. Draft a guy for depth on day 2 or 3 as insurance for this year, not day 1. 
 

He wouldn't ride the bench.  He would start.  Fant would replace Morgan Moses as OT3 and likely still play 4-7 games due to injuries given the 3-year average playing time of Jets starting OTs.  This idea that Becton and Fant are both going to play really well and both play every game is the stuff of fantasy.  Becton has averaged 7.5 games per season since he came into the NFL.... and these should be the youngest and healthiest years of his career.

The Jets do need an infusion of talent everywhere to displace average or slightly above average starters.  The reason everyone wants a WR is because they want to push Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Braxton Berrios, etc. off the field.  We should be doing the same thing at OT, find Fant's replacement (or extend him).

I think the OL is still important and it's simply not as well positioned as some seem to think even after signing Laken Tomlinson.

The Jets had Becton, Fant and Morgan Moses last year.  Guess what? Connor McDermott (OT4) played in 6 games, starting 3 of them last year.  Why?

[the Claw]

1 hour ago, jetstream23 said:

He wouldn't ride the bench.  He would start.  Fant would replace Morgan Moses as OT3 and likely still play 4-7 games due to injuries given the 3-year average playing time of Jets starting OTs.  This idea that Becton and Fant are both going to play really well and both play every game is the stuff of fantasy.  Becton has averaged 7.5 games per season since he came into the NFL.... and these should be the youngest and healthiest years of his career.

The Jets do need an infusion of talent everywhere to displace average or slightly above average starters.  The reason everyone wants a WR is because they want to push Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Braxton Berrios, etc. off the field.  We should be doing the same thing at OT, find Fant's replacement (or extend him).

I think the OL is still important and it's simply not as well positioned as some seem to think even after signing Laken Tomlinson.

The Jets had Becton, Fant and Morgan Moses last year.  Guess what? Connor McDermott (OT4) played in 6 games, starting 3 of them last year.  Why?

I agree with your reason, Becton has been unreliable. No question. They brought in Moses who played admirably on a one year deal. Either way, there’s a first rounder acting as backup. The team can’t keep investing high picks in guys who aren’t playing. Sign a stop gap player again as insurance beyond McDermott and look to upgrade next year after resigning Fant or another FA. I think there’re too many first rounders on the OL with your plan. There are good players to be had on day two. 

[CTJetsFan]

7 minutes ago, the Claw said:

I agree with your reason, Becton has been unreliable. No question. They brought in Moses who played admirably on a one year deal. Either way, there’s a first rounder acting as backup. The team can’t keep investing high picks in guys who aren’t playing. Sign a stop gap player again as insurance beyond McDermott and look to upgrade next year after resigning Fant or another FA. I think there’re too many first rounders on the OL with your plan. There are good players to be had on day two. 

Some good points. I still think the OTs are the safest pick if we are stuck @ 4 but a case can be made to wait on a swing o-lineman later.

[the Claw]

1 hour ago, CTJetsFan said:

Some good points. I still think the OTs are the safest pick if we are stuck @ 4 but a case can be made to wait on a swing o-lineman later.

I think you’re right. At the top of this draft, the tackles are extraordinarily tempting. If Ekwonu is there and a trade isn’t happening, I can understand taking him. I just really want to trade out of four and into the teens while picking up a couple of picks in the 40s/50s where there are still really good players. 

[BurntDice]

On 4/5/2022 at 11:46 AM, johnnysd said:

I am fully with you on this. People always say that "but we will play a LOT of 12 personnel" and while that may be true it will still only be 10-20% of the snaps and 11 will be the primary alignment which it is for every single team in the NFL. So a true #1 is critically important. I am hoping the TEs turn out to be a bigger upgrade than you think

I’m not so sure about this. The 49ers use 21 personnel 36% of the time. 11 is 47% and 12 is 17%
 

With the current jets roster I can see the 21 personnel being reduced while the 12 is increased. So maybe something like 35% 12  45% 11 and 21 20%. 

Maybe if another good wr is added the 11 will jump up some more who knows. I’m just glad we finally have 2 solid TEs 

[JohnnyLV]

15 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

I’m not so sure about this. The 49ers use 21 personnel 36% of the time. 11 is 47% and 12 is 17%
 

With the current jets roster I can see the 21 personnel being reduced while the 12 is increased. So maybe something like 35% 12  45% 11 and 21 20%. 

Maybe if another good wr is added the 11 will jump up some more who knows. I’m just glad we finally have 2 solid TEs 

You only run 12 when ahead essentially or at beginning of games. And although they ran a lot of 21 personnel it is really 11 with the option to run. Even if they only passed 30% of the time that puts 11 really close to 60% of the time. I know you disagree with me on the prevelance and importance of 11

[jetstream23]

3 hours ago, the Claw said:

I agree with your reason, Becton has been unreliable. No question. They brought in Moses who played admirably on a one year deal. Either way, there’s a first rounder acting as backup. The team can’t keep investing high picks in guys who aren’t playing. Sign a stop gap player again as insurance beyond McDermott and look to upgrade next year after resigning Fant or another FA. I think there’re too many first rounders on the OL with your plan. There are good players to be had on day two. 

I agree with that.  I'm certainly not saying that the pick of an OT has to be made at #4 or #10, although it's very possible the best player on the board at #4 could be Ikem.  I'd be just as happy if the Jets identified a very good RT prospect that could be taken at something like #38 or #69.  He'd have to be a scheme-fit guy though, a zone-blocking type OL and not just a short-area bulldozer.  Going with a RT later would let the Jets put Fant and Becton in a face-off for LT this year, with the loser likely moving to RT as we develop the drafted guy and try to work him into the lineup.  If the Jets see Becton get hurt again or if Becton actually has a great year at LT allowing the Jets to let Fant walk after 2022, then we'd have our RT drafted from this year.

[the Claw]

2 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

I agree with that.  I'm certainly not saying that the pick of an OT has to be made at #4 or #10, although it's very possible the best player on the board at #4 could be Ikem.  I'd be just as happy if the Jets identified a very good RT prospect that could be taken at something like #38 or #69.  He'd have to be a scheme-fit guy though, a zone-blocking type OL and not just a short-area bulldozer.  Going with a RT later would let the Jets put Fant and Becton in a face-off for LT this year, with the loser likely moving to RT as we develop the drafted guy and try to work him into the lineup.  If the Jets see Becton get hurt again or if Becton actually has a great year at LT allowing the Jets to let Fant walk after 2022, then we'd have our RT drafted from this year.

My bad man, I thought you meant with #4 or #10. If Ekwonu is available at either it will be very hard to resist, but I think they should. 

[Cyberjet]

If the Jets don’t trade out of #4 then it is BPA and that will be OT. They can get their DE and WR at #10 or later 

[Phillyjet]

14 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

I agree with that.  I'm certainly not saying that the pick of an OT has to be made at #4 or #10, although it's very possible the best player on the board at #4 could be Ikem.  I'd be just as happy if the Jets identified a very good RT prospect that could be taken at something like #38 or #69.  He'd have to be a scheme-fit guy though, a zone-blocking type OL and not just a short-area bulldozer.  Going with a RT later would let the Jets put Fant and Becton in a face-off for LT this year, with the loser likely moving to RT as we develop the drafted guy and try to work him into the lineup.  If the Jets see Becton get hurt again or if Becton actually has a great year at LT allowing the Jets to let Fant walk after 2022, then we'd have our RT drafted from this year.

Listening to the Athletic podcast yesterday, and they reviewed the hit rate on 2nd round tackles… it’s putrid… often those guys have warts or are being drafted for tackle based on traits not production.  We’re talking well below 20%.  If the Jets pass on tackle in the 1st round, they are better off waiting til a developmental prospect they love appears in later rounds.  The potential for success  is likely comparable to over-drafting one in the 2nd round.

Interior line may be different, but that’s the outlook on tackles.  But unless we are targeting center in the 2nd round because Linderbaum or even Zion Johnson drop (developmental projection), then the 2nd probably has better hit rates for receivers, safeties, LBs.  Would love to see Lewis Cine drop into the 2nd, for example.  And go S, LB/DLine in second round, assuming we were to draft a receiver in the first.  In this scenario, I am still assuming we draft edge at 4 or 10 in the first. 

[jetstream23]

32 minutes ago, Phillyjet said:

Listening to the Athletic podcast yesterday, and they reviewed the hit rate on 2nd round tackles… it’s putrid… often those guys have warts or are being drafted for tackle based on traits not production.  We’re talking well below 20%.  If the Jets pass on tackle in the 1st round, they are better off waiting til a developmental prospect they love appears in later rounds.  The potential for success  is likely comparable to over-drafting one in the 2nd round.

Interior line may be different, but that’s the outlook on tackles.  But unless we are targeting center in the 2nd round because Linderbaum or even Zion Johnson drop (developmental projection), then the 2nd probably has better hit rates for receivers, safeties, LBs.  Would love to see Lewis Cine drop into the 2nd, for example.  And go S, LB/DLine in second round, assuming we were to draft a receiver in the first.  In this scenario, I am still assuming we draft edge at 4 or 10 in the first. 

I was targeting Zion Johnson in Mocks with the #35 up until the Jets signed Tomlinson in FA.  They're not pursuing an OG in this Draft now IMO.  They'll roll with AVT, Tomlinson, GVR, Feeney..... which is actually a solid depth chart at OG (and AMAZING that the Jets were in a situation of really counting on GVR and Feeney just a year or two ago along with Laurent D-T)).  Less than 12 months ago neither AVT nor Tomlinson was on this team.  Now they're our two starting OGs... and pretty good ones!

I've been on the "drafting near the LOS" bus for a while.  I think the mix of both value, talent and need at #4 and #10 will have the Jets taking an Edge rusher and OT.  Could be Ikem + Johnson, Thibodeaux + Cross, etc.  but some combination of those guys seems fairly logical.

AT LEAST 6 of the Top 10 guys in this Draft are Edge rushers or OTs.  You have to take what a Draft gives you AND those just so happen to be the positions that Saleh and JD prize the most, respectively.