I still want Defense. The data says I’m wrong.

[Tranquilo]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

None of this is what I want 

If it were up to me they would not have drafted wilson at all 

I'll say it again, because you seem to be stuck on the hardware:

JD does not need a ring to keep his job. He just needs the team to entertain 

If all he needs to do is entertain, and not have a sustainable program, why hasn't he splurged and made crazy ass trades?

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

For the past decade the jets have had a bottom 5 offense.  Bad qbs, bad wrs and bad rbs.  And terrible TEs.  This has coincided with taking a defensive player in round 1 nearly every time until douglas arrived.  It’s also coincided with taking some of the worst 2nd round offensive players as well.  This is the primary reason why the jets are always overbidding for offensive guys from other teams.  It just seems easier at this point, with 2 1sts and 2 2nd rounders, to just take your favorite wr rather than enveloping yourself in “BAP” or a similar philosophy.  We sit here wishing for guys like mclauren and Ridley, yet wilson is right there for the taking.  In sum, i agree, don’t adhere too strictly to the draft boards, if a guy is worth taking at 8 he’s worth taking at 4.

Hang on, I’m saying he’s worth 10 not 4. There are too many other WRs who are coin toss as good or better prospects this year to take one at #4 while his (potential) peer slips 15+ slots later. 

Take a guy at 4 that you just cannot get (or replicate) at #10, but is also at a position - yes, like WR - that will be an added playmaking starter on the field, not just stronger depth that relegates a starter to a full-time backup until there’s an injury that might not happen (or might not happen until the season’s over in Dec or late Nov because our draft strategy kept one horse in the stable instead of on the track).

But other than that, yes I agree.

[Augustiniak]

7 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Hang on, I’m saying he’s worth 10 not 4. There are too many other WRs who are coin toss as good or better prospects this year to take one at #4 while his (potential) peer slips 15+ slots later. 

Take a guy at 4 that you just cannot get (or replicate) at #10, but is also at a position - yes, like WR - that will be an added playmaking starter on the field, not just stronger depth that relegates a starter to a full-time backup until there’s an injury that might not happen (or might not happen until the season’s over in Dec or late Nov because our draft strategy kept one horse in the stable instead of on the track).

But other than that, yes I agree.

The flip side of the argument is, the jets go edge at 4, wilson goes 8 or 9 and the jets don’t get (presumably) their fav wr in the draft.  Now maybe they could care less if they get burks, wilson, olave, etc.  but if they really want one, there is a case to take him at 4, if only b/c they really need to help the rookie qb, it’s becoming very hard to bring in quality vet wrs via trade or FA, and quick wrs who can operate well in space are more important to success than virtually every position on defnese.

[bitonti]

32 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

If all he needs to do is entertain, and not have a sustainable program, why hasn't he splurged and made crazy ass trades?

He's trying. Turns out it's way easier to trade away assets than to convince free agents to play here. 

You know what free agents don't give a crap about? Draft picks and cap space 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

The flip side of the argument is, the jets go edge at 4, wilson goes 8 or 9 and the jets don’t get (presumably) their fav wr in the draft.  Now maybe they could care less if they get burks, wilson, olave, etc.  but if they really want one, there is a case to take him at 4, if only b/c they really need to help the rookie qb, it’s becoming very hard to bring in quality vet wrs via trade or FA, and quick wrs who can operate well in space are more important to success than virtually every position on defnese.

Seems clear that their favorite WR is one who’s already played in the NFL. If they were able to trade #10 it’d solidify/finalize that Adams deal as being a coup for the ages, assuming AVT progresses into the probowl guard many/most of us feel he will. Whiff on the #10 pick and it’s still a good trade, but it’s not the same as if he could’ve turned that pick into Hill or Metcalf or whomever. 

But the best thing a GM can do - other than the obvious, like not acquiring bad players lol - is be flexible. If he gets too hell-bent & obsesses on just one guy he’s not doing this right; not when there isn’t one WR universally ranked as a top 4 prospect and the rest aren’t even top 10 unless someone reaches badly. 

Is he such a savant at picking WRs that he knows which of the top 3-4 WR prospects will be the omg one who’s a serious asset right away as a rookie, and which will take 2-3 years before showing their worth? Exhibit A Denzel Mims says he isn’t; or maybe the omg-level WRs he passed on in favor of Becton. 

This isn’t a draft with one must-have WR prospect and then there’s everyone else of shoulder-shrug ranking, and everyone knows who it is on draft day. As often as not - when there’s even a WR with top 10 or even the top 1st round grade - it feels like that top WR taken is Corey Davis, Justin Blackmon, Sammy Watkins, Corey Coleman, Marquise Brown (who’s good, but not the best and maybe/probably not top 5 in his own class), Ruggs III, DHB.

And it feels like that because that’s what history’s shown. It’s just convenient to use hindsight to say, “Oh we knew then that those guys weren’t actually good.” No they didn’t.

He can afford to reach a little because he’s got so many draft picks (so many high ones at that). But you don’t take a prospect who’s rightly got a #15-ish grade, pushed higher because of a weak draft class, and take him early not at #10 but at #4. 

I’m looking at this on paper, having never watched a game pretty much all these guys played, but on paper that’s poor use of limited + valuable resources, basically unless his career starts off like Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase (in which case, of course no one will care).

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Seems clear that their favorite WR is one who’s already played in the NFL. If they were able to trade #10 it’d solidify/finalize that Adams deal as being a coup for the ages, assuming AVT progresses into the probowl guard many/most of us feel he will. Whiff on the #10 pick and it’s still a good trade, but it’s not the same as if he could’ve turned that pick into Hill or Metcalf or whomever. 

But the best thing a GM can do - other than the obvious, like not acquiring bad players lol - is be flexible. If he gets too hell-bent & obsesses on just one guy he’s not doing this right; not when there isn’t one WR universally ranked as a top 4 prospect and the rest aren’t even top 10 unless someone reaches badly. 

Is he such a savant at picking WRs that he knows which of the top 3-4 WR prospects will be the omg one who’s a serious asset right away as a rookie, and which will take 2-3 years before showing their worth? Exhibit A Denzel Mims says he isn’t; or maybe the omg-level WRs he passed on in favor of Becton. 

This isn’t a draft with one must-have WR prospect and then there’s everyone else of shoulder-shrug ranking, and everyone knows who it is on draft day. As often as not - when there’s even a WR with top 10 or even the top 1st round grade - it feels like that top WR taken is Corey Davis, Justin Blackmon, Sammy Watkins, Corey Coleman, Marquise Brown (who’s good, but not the best and maybe/probably not top 5 in his own class), Ruggs III, DHB.

And it feels like that because that’s what history’s shown. It’s just convenient to use hindsight to say, “Oh we knew then that those guys weren’t actually good.” No they didn’t.

He can afford to reach a little because he’s got so many draft picks (so many high ones at that). But you don’t take a prospect who’s rightly got a #15-ish grade, pushed higher because of a weak draft class, and take him early not at #10 but at #4. 

I’m looking at this on paper, having never watched a game pretty much all these guys played, but on paper that’s poor use of limited + valuable resources, basically unless his career starts off like Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase (in which case, of course no one will care).

All true.  Practically speaking to draft strategy, it’s pretty clear the jets are coming away with an edge guy with one of these 1st round picks.  So with the other pick - whether that’s at 4 or 10 or later if they trade back - will likely be wr, OL or secondary as a dark horse pick.  Assuming the ‘other’ pick is offense, the question becomes, do they like a wr enough to take him at 4 and then grab JJ or karlaftis at 10?  Now, the 2020 draft without saleh and his staff looks very different than the 2021 draft.  Clearly the 2021 draft took the systems into account, and also resulted in better picks.  In particular the mims/becton picks look bad for several reason, first b/c they can’t stay healthy, second b/c they don’t fit saleh’s systems, and third b/c of (real or generated) attitude concerns.  

I’m guessing the ratings of these edge rushers are close.  I would not be surprised if the 4th or 5th edge guy taken is as good or better than the first.  Is karlaftis really worse than hutch?  Maybe, maybe not.  None of these guys are elite prospects, and saleh said as much at the combine.  So I’m guessing they are rated very close.  This means the jets may not see much of a difference taking an edge at 4 or 10 in terms of talent.  This suggests they may consider ‘reaching’ at 4 for their fav wr (they did love moore last year) rather than hope he falls to 10.

the wild card is becton, if the coaches want him gone then it may simply be decided they go OL at 4, trade becton and go edge at 10 and then wr is pushed back to the end of round 1 at best, where you’re looking at guys like pickens and olave who aren’t the move the needle prospects.  It’s easy to see why douglas would prefer to trade for a vet wr and then use those first rounders on d.

[Tranquilo]

25 minutes ago, bitonti said:

He's trying. Turns out it's way easier to trade away assets than to convince free agents to play here. 

You know what free agents don't give a crap about? Draft picks and cap space 

If it's easier to trade away assets, why hasn't he? He could've easily gotten Cooper. Why hasn't he found a stopgap QB to get some entertaining wins? Free agents want money. Why hasn't he splurged? 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 minute ago, Augustiniak said:

All true.  Practically speaking to draft strategy, it’s pretty clear the jets are coming away with an edge guy with one of these 1st round picks.  So with the other pick - whether that’s at 4 or 10 or later if they trade back - will likely be wr, OL or secondary as a dark horse pick.  Assuming the ‘other’ pick is offense, the question becomes, do they like a wr enough to take him at 4 and then grab JJ or karlaftis at 10?  Now, the 2020 draft without saleh and his staff looks very different than the 2021 draft.  Clearly the 2021 draft took the systems into account, and also resulted in better picks.  In particular the mims/becton picks look bad for several reason, first b/c they can’t stay healthy, second b/c they don’t fit saleh’s systems, and third b/c of (real or generated) attitude concerns.  

I’m guessing the ratings of these edge rushers are close.  I would not be surprised if the 4th or 5th edge guy taken is as good or better than the first.  Is karlaftis really worse than hutch?  Maybe, maybe not.  None of these guys are elite prospects, and saleh said as much at the combine.  So I’m guessing they are rated very close.  This means the jets may not see much of a difference taking an edge at 4 or 10 in terms of talent.  This suggests they may consider ‘reaching’ at 4 for their fav wr (they did love moore last year) rather than hope he falls to 10.

the wild card is becton, if the coaches want him gone then it may simply be decided they go OL at 4, trade becton and go edge at 10 and then wr is pushed back to the end of round 1 at best, where you’re looking at guys like pickens and olave who aren’t the move the needle prospects.  It’s easy to see why douglas would prefer to trade for a vet wr and then use those first rounders on d.

I’d be very less than thrilled if they drafted an OT in the top 10, but I’m not the one to rank one edge or tackle or wr over another. I’m just looking at it stepping back from the individuals, which on the one hand is convenient, but on the other hand allows me to say look every year there are multiple omg guys who are then soon forgotten as though there was never any real hype about them. 

Absent a trade, I’m still on the EDGE + WR bus, where I was when the sentiment was there’s no WR worth the #10 pick, and maybe none worth the #20 pick. If they can get just as good or better prospects overall by flipping that, I’ll have no complaints. 

[nycdan]

7 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I’d be very less than thrilled if they drafted an OT in the top 10, but I’m not the one to rank one edge or tackle or wr over another. I’m just looking at it stepping back from the individuals, which on the one hand is convenient, but on the other hand allows me to say look every year there are multiple omg guys who are then soon forgotten as though there was never any real hype about them. 

Absent a trade, I’m still on the EDGE + WR bus, where I was when the sentiment was there’s no WR worth the #10 pick, and maybe none worth the #20 pick. If they can get just as good or better prospects overall by flipping that, I’ll have no complaints. 

I think we're looking at a draft where there is almost no PLAYER worth the #10 pick.  Anyone we take will be labeled 'overdrafted' by some, if not most.  So perhaps we just throw that concern away and take the best player for improving our team.  There's a very good chance that would be a WR in that spot.  Take the guy, and if he turns out to be a good pro, nobody will give a rat's ass what position he was drafted in.

I'm pretty sure there will be 2-3 WRs taken by the 15th pick in any case.  Might be better to take our favorite of them at 10 rather than trade down and take our third choice in the teens all for another 3rd rounder this year and next.  

[nycdan]

As for OLine, it all comes down to Becton.  IF he is going to play either side, than OT in the 1st round feels a bit sticky.  But if you're not sure about that, then I can get behind it.  Here's a list of sacks allowed by team in 2021.  There is a pretty high correlation between sacks allowed and success.  Now that may be because the better QBs avoid sacks more readily, and it's not entirely about the OLine.  But other than CIN and TEN, the teams at the top of this list (the most sacks allowed) did not do well.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-sacks-allowed-2021-by-team

 

[Augustiniak]

4 minutes ago, nycdan said:

As for OLine, it all comes down to Becton.  IF he is going to play either side, than OT in the 1st round feels a bit sticky.  But if you're not sure about that, then I can get behind it.  Here's a list of sacks allowed by team in 2021.  There is a pretty high correlation between sacks allowed and success.  Now that may be because the better QBs avoid sacks more readily, and it's not entirely about the OLine.  But other than CIN and TEN, the teams at the top of this list (the most sacks allowed) did not do well.

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-sacks-allowed-2021-by-team

 

Becton influences this draft as much as the draftable players.   He may force the jets hand to go OL, trade him and then wr is not addressed right away.

[HighPitch]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

The flip side of the argument is, the jets go edge at 4, wilson goes 8 or 9 and the jets don’t get (presumably) their fav wr in the draft.  Now maybe they could care less if they get burks, wilson, olave, etc.  but if they really want one, there is a case to take him at 4, if only b/c they really need to help the rookie qb, it’s becoming very hard to bring in quality vet wrs via trade or FA, and quick wrs who can operate well in space are more important to success than virtually every position on defnese.

exactly. Again, everyone is too caught up with the numbers.

 

lets say you want an edge and wr. Wilson will not make it to 10. So, you grab Wilson at 4 and JJ at 10, for example. You cant say "OHHH wilson at 4 is ridiculous" You decide who you want and if the chips fall a certain way, damn the draft positions.

Does it matter at the end of the day if you went JJ/Wilson versus Wilson/JJ? Who cares

[BigRy56]

The dream scenario is to trade both 2's for a proven WR, pick one... then draft KT and Sauce at 4 and 10. That happens and we are talking pushing for a playoff birth IMO

[HighPitch]

good news is we have enough picks to help the D and the O. A balanced approach. 

On O, you could easily wind up with a new WR, TE and OL guy. That should make for a solid O.

along with ?

2 Edges, LB and S. That should be an improved D.

 

plus more!

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, nycdan said:

I think we're looking at a draft where there is almost no PLAYER worth the #10 pick.  Anyone we take will be labeled 'overdrafted' by some, if not most.  So perhaps we just throw that concern away and take the best player for improving our team.  There's a very good chance that would be a WR in that spot.  Take the guy, and if he turns out to be a good pro, nobody will give a rat's ass what position he was drafted in.

I'm pretty sure there will be 2-3 WRs taken by the 15th pick in any case.  Might be better to take our favorite of them at 10 rather than trade down and take our third choice in the teens all for another 3rd rounder this year and next.  

I don't disagree at all for pick #10, with the caveat that some positions won't improve the team all that much (e.g. center) in comparison to others (e.g. wr, edge, and more). My complaint was more about using #4 on a WR. 

[nycdan]

18 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I don't disagree at all for pick #10, with the caveat that some positions won't improve the team all that much (e.g. center) in comparison to others (e.g. wr, edge, and more). My complaint was more about using #4 on a WR. 

I hear you loud and clear.

But likely the same argument will apply at #4.  Assuming Hutch is gone; who is "worth the pick" there?  Every other name will result in a storm of criticism.  There are really no clean picks.

[Augustiniak]

10 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I hear you loud and clear.

But likely the same argument will apply at #4.  Assuming Hutch is gone; who is "worth the pick" there?  Every other name will result in a storm of criticism.  There are really no clean picks.

This is the question, assuming they don’t trade becton, take ekongwu at 4 and then go edge at 10.  In the end it could just depend on how they stack their board.

[rldev]

The G. Wilson hype is off the hook. I can't imagine him being a pick at 4. I would rather roll with Williams and take a flyer on another in the later rounds if we don't make a trade. RB is a need that many are overlooking. I want impact playmakers. I would like to grab an RB by the third round this year.  There are some very good backs that will be available.

[Sperm Edwards]

19 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I hear you loud and clear.

But likely the same argument will apply at #4.  Assuming Hutch is gone; who is "worth the pick" there?  Every other name will result in a storm of criticism.  There are really no clean picks.

Yeah it's not exactly an exact science, but taking a guy at #4 who's expected to still be there at 12 - granted there are no guarantees - seems a waste. 

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Yeah it's not exactly an exact science, but taking a guy at #4 who's expected to still be there at 12 - granted there are no guarantees - seems a waste. 

In this draft, the 1st wr is not going at 12, maybe not even 10.

[Sperm Edwards]

6 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

In this draft, the 1st wr is not going at 12, maybe not even 10.

Perhaps, but we've heard that plenty of times how early someone was supposed to go. The TEs, QBs, etc. who were locks to go in the top 10 - maybe even in/around the top 5 - and slipped to almost 30. If someone bites early you never know how much further he'd have slipped. A month ago there wasn't a single WR worth the #10 pick - maybe not even #15 - and now, after the sticker shock of some WR contracts, projected earlier.

You might be right, but you never know, until it happens, which position is going to go on a run. Fans of every team convince themselves it'll be at the position their team is probably targeting. Often they're right, based on perceived team needs among those with earlier picks, sometimes not.

[ZachEY]

On 4/10/2022 at 2:35 PM, bitonti said:

Don't look at this like "what do the Jets need to do to win a title?" 

look at it like "what does JD need to do to keep his job?" 

All JD has to do is make sure Zach Wilson is not a bust, and he'll get another contract from Woody. The team just has to be entertaining. It doesn't have to actually win anything of significance. 

They can be entertaining with more offense. Yes they will need defense to become a contender but that's wishful thinking. They are going to draft offense to at least make the team watchable 

This falls on its face when you look at the moves Douglas has actually made, and how they're not really "entertainment" moves, but rather, continue to build towards competence and competitiveness.

No Leveon Bell's, No Trumaine Johnson's, No CJ Mosely's.  Just solid upgrades at positions of need.

[ZachEY]

3 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

If it's easier to trade away assets, why hasn't he? He could've easily gotten Cooper. Why hasn't he found a stopgap QB to get some entertaining wins? Free agents want money. Why hasn't he splurged? 

Bit is so dug in on this narrative his head is well below sea level.

[faba]

When you have the worst scoring defenses in NFL history we need to address that at least with one of the picks that is why I am not so enamored with WR at the top