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Zach Wilson’s short passes rating (Weeks 15-18)


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6 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

I'm not over complicating anything.  I know you're the biggest Zac apologist on the board but how can you sit here and literally  write off the 2022 season because its unreasonable to expect the #2 overall pick top half of the league QB?   You are legit saying, we shouldnt have any expectations of the #2 overall pick in his 2nd year because of what?  Level of competition in college?  For **** sake, this participation trophy level logic.  lmfao

If Zach Wilson isnt at top 15 QB next year, it's ******* panic time dude.  You're high if you dont think they bring in a starter to take over in year 3.  HIGH! 

damn right.... 

If the 2nd overall pick isn't in the top half of the league by year 2, you better bring in legit starter. 

 

JD still needs to get the WR position taken care of and not have the "well we didn't do enough around Zach excuse"... its all on Zach to perform and prove he's the dude. Year 2 is not too early to expect to see a top 15 qb.

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3 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Seriously?  Unreasonable?  For the #2 overall pick?  That's not good.  While the league has some serious talent at the top end of for QB position right now, you have teams like the Steelers, Seahawks, Texans, ATL, Car, NYG, Was, Det, San Fran, Jax, Miami, NE, Philly, Nor all with sh*tty to no QB, that's half the league.  If he's not rated above every single on of those QB's, this team is proper ****ed.

 

So top 18? 

Trevor Lawrence was also a number 1 pick. Shouldn't we expect him to be better than Zach? That's top 19 now. 

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9 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

I'm not over complicating anything.  I know you're the biggest Zac apologist on the board but how can you sit here and literally  write off the 2022 season because its unreasonable to expect the #2 overall pick top half of the league QB?   You are legit saying, we shouldnt have any expectations of the #2 overall pick in his 2nd year because of what?  Level of competition in college?  For **** sake, this participation trophy level logic.  lmfao

If Zach Wilson isnt at top 15 QB next year, it's ******* panic time dude.  You're high if you dont think they bring in a starter to take over in year 3.  HIGH! 

No one's writing off the season.  I expect serious growth from both the team and Zach Wilson.  I really believe you and I are closer than you think.

If they stay mostly healthy I believe this team will be fighting for a playoff spot.  

I believe, if healthy, Wilson should be expected to surpass 3,500 yards.   If Moore, Davis, Carter, Rookie WR contributes, OL  are all mostly healthy (not saying 100% healthy, but mostly) - 4,000 yards is a reasonable expectation - it would be mine.

But I also believe he's going to have moments where he really struggles, particularly early in the season.  You have to look at where he was at the end of last year - and know that's where he's going to be picking up this year.  He was not a top 15 QB at the end of last year.  Where he ended last year is his starting point this year.

If Zach Wilson comes in and is ranked between 25 and 30 the first quarter of the season, second quarter of the season he's 25-20, third quarter he's 20-15 and last quarter top 15 - You're high if you think the Jets organization will be anything but ecstatic about that...And any rational fan should be as well.  It won't be that clean, but I think you get my point.

This would put him like in that 23/24range for the year - but his continued progress will be apparent - and there will still be lots of room to grow and lots of excitement going into year 3.

Honestly, the difference between you and me right now is a few spots in the seasonal rankings.

 

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On 4/12/2022 at 7:31 AM, The Crusher said:

Top 15 is a huge leap from the bottom of the barrel but I think that a very reasonable goal. But, with the upgrades this year from last year top ten would be far more indicative that we may have our guy. But top 15 is a nice start. 

I know you say its a huge leap but is it really too much to expect when we see other QB's doing it  ? Zach has the talent so what is it we are waiting for ? If he has a problem executing this offense in year 2 then there's going to be some big questions. Yes there will be some mistakes but I want to see the dynamic play his draft position and talent say there should be. Mixing in some mistakes with that will be fine I'm sure Joe Burrow and Herbert made some mistakes during the first 2 years but their stellar play basically covered those mistakes up. In the playoffs Burrow looked fantastic and even in the games when he was getting pounded he still made plays to win the game and that's very rare and that's Brady like. 

We have coddled enough QB's its time to put up or shut up. In other words I don't want to be strung along with small Improvements from year to year that end up being sh*t. So with that being said if Wilson does not break into at least the top half of this league meaning at the very least ranked 15th its going to be a huge disappointment for the second over all pick. 

Even if he gets to 15 or better this year and more importantly starts to win games and bring the team back from behind, In year three I want him to be pushing the top five not lingering in mediocrity .

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On 4/12/2022 at 7:44 AM, Green Ghost said:

People still want to use all kinds of sample sizes or look for stats that will make them feel better about what was a dismal rookie year for Zach.

We’re all hoping he will improve, and most of us think he can.  Last year is over, it’s time to move on to year 2.
Let’s stop trying to put lipstick on the pig the ‘21 season was for him.

You're right last year is over but most of us are talking about expectations in year 2 and beyond.

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On 4/12/2022 at 8:30 AM, FidelioJet said:

All these QB’s are different. Start from different points, surrounded by different talent, coaching, systems etc. 

I mean you can expect what you want. You’re unlikely to see top 10 QB the play.   But he’s going to show more than enough growth and progress to comfortably warrant a third year.  
Then year three elite level performance should be expected/demanded. 

Yes they are different but one could argue Joe Burrow had a pretty hard time last year getting sacked because his OL sucked and he took his team to the SB. Think Zach could have pulled that off in any scenario ? Its not as different as you think. Throughout the history of this league we have seen QB's suck with a lot of talent around them and it was proven by their replacements it was NOT THE TALENT it was the QB. FWIW when Zach got hurt Mike White played one of the best games I have seen from a Jets QB in 20 years against one of the hottest defenses in the league at the time in his first ever start in the NFL and he brought us back from behind to win the damn game. I don't want to get into that comparison between the 2 QB's but it happened so ya can't just ignore it if MW did not suffer that freak injury vs the Colts where he was also playing really good not telling what might have happened last season.

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58 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

If they stay mostly healthy I believe this team will be fighting for a playoff spot.

Wow, I have my fingers crossed for 7-9-1, lol. 

58 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

If Zach Wilson comes in and is ranked between 25 and 30 the first quarter of the season, second quarter of the season he's 25-20, third quarter he's 20-15 and last quarter top 15 - You're high if you think the Jets organization will be anything but ecstatic about that...And any rational fan should be as well.  It won't be that clean, but I think you get my point.

Zach has to come out of the gate looking better than that. He should know the playbook backwards and forwards, and where every player is supposed to be on every play. The OL should be solid on day one. The TEs acclimated. Davis, Moore, Carter, Berrios, rookie, Mims(?)… he’s gonna have to perform. 
 
If we didn’t just go thru this with Darnold, he’d have a much longer leash. But we did just go thru this with Darnold, and the media and fans will not be tolerant of poor QB play. 

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24 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

You're right last year is over but most of us are talking about expectations in year 2 and beyond.

Yeah I get that. The thing with Wilson though is how can you legit feel strongly one way or the other? You can’t be optimistic after seeing him play last year, but by the same token, you see the arm strength and can’t help but hope

With Darnold, I knew 5 games in he wasn’t the guy, and while QB is the one position I’m usually pretty good at evaluating young players, I’ll admit to having a hard time getting a handle on Zach.
I wouldn’t bet money on Zach succeeding here, but I’m not willing to give up on him yet. 
That said, I think we’ll know what we have by halfway through this year. If he’s the same or only marginally better than last? Ugh. Move on.

 

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35 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

I know you say its a huge leap but is it really too much to expect when we see other QB's doing it  ? Zach has the talent so what is it we are waiting for ? If he has a problem executing this offense in year 2 then there's going to be some big questions. Yes there will be some mistakes but I want to see the dynamic play his draft position and talent say there should be. Mixing in some mistakes with that will be fine I'm sure Joe Burrow and Herbert made some mistakes during the first 2 years but their stellar play basically covered those mistakes up. In the playoffs Burrow looked fantastic and even in the games when he was getting pounded he still made plays to win the game and that's very rare and that's Brady like. 

We have coddled enough QB's its time to put up or shut up. In other words I don't want to be strung along with small Improvements from year to year that end up being sh*t. So with that being said if Wilson does not break into at least the top half of this league meaning at the very least ranked 15th its going to be a huge disappointment for the second over all pick. 

Even if he gets to 15 or better this year and more importantly starts to win games and bring the team back from behind, In year three I want him to be pushing the top five not lingering in mediocrity .

You missed my point. I meant that Zach was the worst QB in the league last year, not sure he can make it to top 15. Until I see it, it's kind of tough to believe. That's all. 

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9 minutes ago, slats said:

Wow, I have my fingers crossed for 7-9-1, lol. 

Zach has to come out of the gate looking better than that. He should know the playbook backwards and forwards, and where every player is supposed to be on every play. The OL should be solid on day one. The TEs acclimated. Davis, Moore, Carter, Berrios, rookie, Mims(?)… he’s gonna have to perform. 
 
If we didn’t just go thru this with Darnold, he’d have a much longer leash. But we did just go thru this with Darnold, and the media and fans will not be tolerant of poor QB play. 

This is an interesting point.  But I think a fair one.

Just because Darnold reached his ceiling in year 2 doesn't mean, us as fans were wrong to stick with him.  There was promise with Sam for year 3 - but he regressed.  Unfortunately it took the Jets 3 years to come to that conclusion. In hindsight I think what Sam was missing, from my perspective, is he never really showed that he had a superstar skill-set.  He made a play here or there but elite traits were never there - So that pedestrian play we saw was always going to be what he was - just a more cleaned up version of it.

I think that is different with Wilson.   Note - I expect ZW's year 2 to be better than Sam's - and for him to show much more upside potential

With that said, I really don't think Darnold's success or failure should have any relevance from a team management perspective.  Yes, I get the fan base is going to have a short leash with Zach - I'm prepared for that.  I just the expectations of many fans to be simply too high - based on where Wilson.

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3 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

You missed my point. I meant that Zach was the worst QB in the league last year, not sure he can make it to top 15. Until I see it, it's kind of tough to believe. That's all. 

I didn't miss your point at all. I think Josh Allen was the worst as well and look what he did in year 2/3 . Plenty of comparisons to be made . Also I'm not one to think a QB taken second over all should have been ranked last in the NFL in the first place so in that respect last year was a complete disappointment from my perspective and probably everyone else's as well. I'm hoping year 2 goes as far in the opposite direction as possible

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1 minute ago, Smashmouth said:

I didn't miss your point at all. I think Josh Allen was the worst as well and look what he did in year 2/3 . Plenty of comparisons to be made . Also I'm not one to think a QB taken second over all should have been ranked last in the NFL in the first place so in that respect last year was a complete disappointment from my perspective and probably everyone else's as well. I'm hoping year 2 goes as far in the opposite direction as possible

So is this the part we hug or exchange punches? I always confuse those two.

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26 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

Yes they are different but one could argue Joe Burrow had a pretty hard time last year getting sacked because his OL sucked and he took his team to the SB. Think Zach could have pulled that off in any scenario ? Its not as different as you think. 

When I said - all these QB's are different - I wasn't trying to compare their skill-sets - just that they all in very different situations.  Most specifically his starting point.

Zach's starting point - of where he was mentally and prepared to play at the NFL was lower than Burrow's.  We can debate was that a reason not to take him at 2, happy to have that one ---- but that's not the discussion right now.  

The point is - as fans we have to accept where his is NOW.  Not where he was drafted, not where Joe Burrow, not that his numbers look like Josh Allens's did, not where Justin Fields is - none of the has ANY bearing on the now and how he progresses.  

All I'm saying is - let's accept where he is now and look to how he should reasonably be expected to grow from there.

Like all these guys - they're going to get better until they don't.  When he hits a ceiling (or progressing upwards too slowly to make a difference) and that ceiling isn't good enough - that's when you cut bait.

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19 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

Yeah I get that. The thing with Wilson though is how can you legit feel strongly one way or the other? You can’t be optimistic after seeing him play last year, but by the same token, you see the arm strength and can’t help but hope

With Darnold, I knew 5 games in he wasn’t the guy, and while QB is the one position I’m usually pretty good at evaluating young players, I’ll admit to having a hard time getting a handle on Zach.
I wouldn’t bet money on Zach succeeding here, but I’m not willing to give up on him yet. 
That said, I think we’ll know what we have by halfway through this year. If he’s the same or only marginally better than last? Ugh. Move on.

 

Agree 100% Its going to come down to what Zach does the first half of this season. I'm even willing to give him another chance past that and I'll explain. 

If Zach comes out and plays bad in the first 4-5 games I think Robert Saleh should bench him. So in that scenario lets say the Jets bring in MW or Joe Flacco and they are nothing special but they run the offense a bit better, I would let that go for 3-4 games and then give Zach his chance to come back and show what he's got. If at that point we see the same crap, he's done for a while. Some may find that a bit harsh but I do not feel he deserves automatic starts in year 3 at that stage. If it comes to this we shop for a QB via the draft or FA or Trade and let Zach ride the bench and if that QB fails or gets hurt or whatever then maybe Zach gets his last shot as a starter in the NFL anything after that matters not because if he fails for a 4th time he's Mark Sanchez , Sam Darnold and even dare I say Geno Smith and then he's completely done big arm or not since we have seen plenty of big arms fall flat on there face

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18 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

You missed my point. I meant that Zach was the worst QB in the league last year, not sure he can make it to top 15. Until I see it, it's kind of tough to believe. That's all. 

Still don't know why so many think he was the worst in the NFL. He sucked, but was not the worst. Not even the worst rookie QB.

 

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8 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

When I said - all these QB's are different - I wasn't trying to compare their skill-sets - just that they all in very different situations.  Most specifically his starting point.

Thats why I made reference to the OL Burrow had to deal with. I did not mention there skill set comparisons at all in skillset I think Zach has better skill then most QB's in the NFL he just has to mentally translate that to the games.

Zach's starting point - of where he was mentally and prepared to play at the NFL was lower than Burrow's.  We can debate was that a reason not to take him at 2, happy to have that one ---- but that's not the discussion right now.  

We didn't debate this, but I agree Zach may not have been ready mentally for the NFL at least not as much as those other QB's

The point is - as fans we have to accept where his is NOW.  Not where he was drafted, not where Joe Burrow, not that his numbers look like Josh Allens's did, not where Justin Fields is - none of the has ANY bearing on the now and how he progresses.  

I use the other QB's as comparison for what I expect..yes.  In respect to what Zach is doing with the Jets that's all I really care about and that's how I will judge him no matter what other QB's are doing 

All I'm saying is - let's accept where he is now and look to how he should reasonably be expected to grow from there.

Those are the scenarios I'm trying to work out in my other posts . What's expected in what time frame because there is a time frame for sure.

Like all these guys - they're going to get better until they don't.  When he hits a ceiling (or progressing upwards too slowly to make a difference) and that ceiling isn't good enough - that's when you cut bait.

This is my feeling exactly and probably some of the "Jets Fans" have been a little more harsh on Zach due to how many times we've been let down. I understand that's not Zach's fault but it certainly puts more pressure on the team and the organization as a whole more than it normally would.

 

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2 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

So top 18? 

Trevor Lawrence was also a number 1 pick. Shouldn't we expect him to be better than Zach? That's top 19 now. 

I only listed the obvious ones.  I figured most posters could do the rest.  I expect him to be better than middling QB's like Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins...for sure.  I then I expect him to be better than Fields because we passed on Fields for Wilson and because you and many others posters and Chris Simms told me Wilson was better than Lawrence and I'm steady on the Lawrence is the most overrated prospect of all time train, yeah, I expect him to better than Lawrence too.

I'm bad at teh math, where we at? 

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12 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

I only listed the obvious ones.  I figured most posters could do the rest.  I expect him to be better than middling QB's like Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins...for sure.  I then I expect him to be better than Fields because we passed on Fields for Wilson and because you and many others posters and Chris Simms told me Wilson was better than Lawrence and I'm steady on the Lawrence is the most overrated prospect of all time train, yeah, I expect him to better than Lawrence too.

I'm bad at teh math, where we at? 

I'll give you Matty Ass, but Kirk is solid even if he's a choker. Carr, gotta respect how steady he was last year and Tannehill still a solid vet. I'll give you Lawrence.

Top 17?

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2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

No one's writing off the season.  I expect serious growth from both the team and Zach Wilson.  I really believe you and I are closer than you think.

If they stay mostly healthy I believe this team will be fighting for a playoff spot.  

I believe, if healthy, Wilson should be expected to surpass 3,500 yards.   If Moore, Davis, Carter, Rookie WR contributes, OL  are all mostly healthy (not saying 100% healthy, but mostly) - 4,000 yards is a reasonable expectation - it would be mine.

But I also believe he's going to have moments where he really struggles, particularly early in the season.  You have to look at where he was at the end of last year - and know that's where he's going to be picking up this year.  He was not a top 15 QB at the end of last year.  Where he ended last year is his starting point this year.

If Zach Wilson comes in and is ranked between 25 and 30 the first quarter of the season, second quarter of the season he's 25-20, third quarter he's 20-15 and last quarter top 15 - You're high if you think the Jets organization will be anything but ecstatic about that...And any rational fan should be as well.  It won't be that clean, but I think you get my point.

This would put him like in that 23/24range for the year - but his continued progress will be apparent - and there will still be lots of room to grow and lots of excitement going into year 3.

Honestly, the difference between you and me right now is a few spots in the seasonal rankings.

 

 

2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

No one's writing off the season.  I expect serious growth from both the team and Zach Wilson.  I really believe you and I are closer than you think.

If they stay mostly healthy I believe this team will be fighting for a playoff spot.  

I believe, if healthy, Wilson should be expected to surpass 3,500 yards.   If Moore, Davis, Carter, Rookie WR contributes, OL  are all mostly healthy (not saying 100% healthy, but mostly) - 4,000 yards is a reasonable expectation - it would be mine.

But I also believe he's going to have moments where he really struggles, particularly early in the season.  You have to look at where he was at the end of last year - and know that's where he's going to be picking up this year.  He was not a top 15 QB at the end of last year.  Where he ended last year is his starting point this year.

If Zach Wilson comes in and is ranked between 25 and 30 the first quarter of the season, second quarter of the season he's 25-20, third quarter he's 20-15 and last quarter top 15 - You're high if you think the Jets organization will be anything but ecstatic about that...And any rational fan should be as well.  It won't be that clean, but I think you get my point.

This would put him like in that 23/24range for the year - but his continued progress will be apparent - and there will still be lots of room to grow and lots of excitement going into year 3.

Honestly, the difference between you and me right now is a few spots in the seasonal rankings.

 

I mean, this whole "dont have high expectations" and "where he started last year should be his starting point this year" and "ending the season 23/24" thingy feels like writing the season off to me but yeah, I guess we just have different expectations.  23/24 range is ******* terrible dude.  lol  To give you a point of reference the QB's who were in that range this year were; Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Tua, Daniel Jones and Davis Mills.  lmfao.  

 

 

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1 minute ago, Tranquilo said:

I'll give you Matty Ass, but Kirk is solid even if he's a choker. Carr, gotta respect how steady he was last year and Tannehill still a solid vet. I'll give you Lawrence.

Top 17?

Cousins and Tannehill are the ultimate meh and I will puke if that's what Zach Wilson turns into but for this season, fine.  Carr is underrated.  

16?  I cant keep up.  I was told there would be no math.

 

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1 hour ago, Green Ghost said:

I think we’ll know what we have by halfway through this year. If he’s the same or only marginally better than last? Ugh. Move on.

Fair...

If, half way through the season he's only marginally better than he was last year - that would be concerning for everyone.  Even his most ardent supporters.

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9 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

 

I mean, this whole "dont have high expectations" and "where he started last year should be his starting point this year" and "ending the season 23/24" thingy feels like writing the season off to me but yeah, I guess we just have different expectations.  23/24 range is ******* terrible dude.  lol  To give you a point of reference the QB's who were in that range this year were; Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Tua, Daniel Jones and Davis Mills.  lmfao.  

 

 

Sorry to be repetitive but this is simplifying it.

It's 23/24 as an overall, full season metric.  If he's flat that way all year - I'm with you.  So, ranked 23/24 first 4 games and basically holds that all the way through.  Bring in competition for him next year - I would be 100% on board with you.

But that's not what I'm talking about - it's a QB playing the second half and final quarter of the season at a much higher level than he did the first half year.   His full season numbers (through 17 games) might show 23/24 but I expect him to be playing at top 15 level by the end of the season.   Just the early part of the season I expect him to still struggle but continue to get better throughout the year.

I won't argue this point with you anymore, just thought I would give one last shot :-)

 

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3 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

Sorry to be repetitive but this is simplifying it.

It's 23/24 as an overall, full season metric.  If he's flat that way all year - I'm with you.  So, ranked 23/24 first 4 games and basically holds that all the way through.  Bring in competition for him next year - I would be 100% on board with you.

But that's not what I'm talking about - it's a QB playing the second half and final quarter of the season at a much higher level than he did the first half year.   His full season numbers (through 17 games) might show 23/24 but I expect him to be playing at top 15 level by the end of the season.   Just the early part of the season I expect him to still struggle but continue to get better throughout the year.

I won't argue this point with you anymore, just thought I would give one last shot :-)

 

I just showed you the names of the QB's who finished the season in that range.  It's the dregs of the NFL.  I dont think you even realize what you're asking of Wilson if he does start in the bottom 3 (which is completely unacceptable) to then finish in the range you're referencing but whatever, I thin the simple point is, I expect more from Zach Wilson than you do and that's just fine but I dont know how much patience this team is going to have, I dont think it's as much as you think it is. 

 

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7 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

I think ultimately you're going to be disappointed in both aspects.

He's not going to be a top 15 QB - and he won't have competition in year 3. 

Now, top 15 the last quarter of the season - I think that's a reasonable expectation too.  Growth is the key.  

You say this, yet you also say that we shouldn't expect him to carry over his level of play from the end of last season which, by at least one measure, had him playing at a top-5 level.

You even expect him to struggle at the start of next season, which would be an active regression especially when you consider that he should have a better OL, better weapons, a better understanding of the playbook, plus an OC with a year of experience. 

Now, expecting him to come out immediately as a top-5 QB is foolish, but finishing as a top-15, for a QB of his supposed talent and draft slot, is not only reasonable, but should be the bare minimum expectation. 

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1 hour ago, Grandy said:

Still don't know why so many think he was the worst in the NFL. He sucked, but was not the worst. Not even the worst rookie QB.

 

How many games did Lawrence and Fields play in comparison to Wilson?

I'm too lazy to look it up. 

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