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Jets & Saints trade might be kind of maybe sorta in a way heating up! Would you trade 4th pick to Saints for picks 16, 19 & 98?


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Jets & Saints trade rumors are heating up! Would you trade 4th pick to Saints for picks 16, 19 & 98?

I suppose we'd have to consider it if, as many here seem to think, there is no meaningful difference between the players picked at #4 and those later in the first or even the 2nd/3rd/4th.

Four shots > 1 Shot, even if the 4th overall prospect should be more likely to succeed than lower tier prospects.

There is some appeal to 10/16/19, in that WR had damn sure better be one of those picks in that scenario, not guaranteed with just 4/10.

We're still so dreadfully thin on talent, more shots may just > better prospects.

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3 minutes ago, K_O_Brien said:

Yes. 

I'd also do 10+38 for 16+19. Take Sauce at 4 and then go get your edge and receiver.

Hmm. I'd would go for that as well. I think JD personally can get more than that. I like your idea too. But if Saints want Willis they are going to have to leapfrog over Carolina, so trading 4th pick makes more sense.

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8 minutes ago, Green hat said:

Since there are no blue chips, I'd do this in a heart beat. Then I would swap 19 for a first in 2023 plus whatever else we can get. 

Karlaftis at 10 and Olave / Williams at 16.

 

3 minutes ago, Embrace the Suck said:

16, 19, and their first round pick next year.  They get 4 this year, and a 4th next year. Or the following (maybe not Sauce):

 

Saints don't have a 1st round pick next year.  They gave it up in the trade with the Eagles to get 16 and 19.

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7 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I know trading down is popular, but I would actually pass. 

The Jets have plenty of picks. We need a few gamechangers who can help us right away, not more picks. 

I understand how you feel.

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This is just speculation that the Giants and Jets could be trade partners...so could other teams.  Now, if the Saints were in direct contact working out a trade, that would be "trade talks heating up"...this is nothing.

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3 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

Seriously.  Wtf.  I’m all for a good old fashioned ‘hey guys look at the video I madezzz’ attention post as much as anyone but next time he may want to change its title to something more honest like ‘click on my video. Never mind I have no sources and just speculate out my butthole but that’s gotta be worth a click, right man?’  

It's gotten truly absurd this offseason.  If this Board links to one more BREAKING NEWZZZZ "article" by that Boy Green moron I might lose my mind.

 

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Very good topic, not sure how much I would consider these rumors versus conjecture.  But to answer your question, I would but only if I believed that either Jameson Williams (my current preference) or Drake London would be there for the taking at #10.  The Jets have made clear how much they value a #1 WR, and these are the only 2 in the draft I think who have that potential and who could get there by year 2.

The Edge market is pretty deep and I have questions on all but agree the Jets need to grab one with pick 16.  I'm not as high on Thibs as some and for others, am very wary of workout warriors who don't have matching production. 

Pick 19 could potentially land you top player or top LB available while pick 98 can be used to build much needed depth. 

 

 -----------------------------------------------------for nerds only----------------------------------------------------------

Here's some supporting data over the standard hot takes or 'facts'.

1.  10 of the 10 teams that have made the past 5 Super Bowls have had a top 10 offense in points scored.  6 had a top 10 defense while 4 did not.  Statistically (and don't make me pull out the data again), a top offense helps the defense more than the other way around.

2. Looking at current #1 WRs (my definition-- 70+ catches, 1000+ yards, 6+ TDs), 5 of the 11 taken in the first round reached that status in year 1 versus only 1 of 9 taken in the second round.  That is the biggest differentiator between 1st and 2nd round.

3. The SEC, Oklahoma, and Clemson have a batting average of 11-12 = 92% dating back to 2016 when Laquon Treadwell was the most recent bust.  7 of the 11 are already #1 WRs by the above definition.  The other 4 are DeVonta Smith (Eagles), Kadarius Toney (Giants), Jerry Jeudy (Denver) and Henry Ruggs (Oakland).  Smith might just get there this year and Toney / Jeudy have shown early promise while Ruggs was on the rise before falling hard off the field. 

4. USC has recently developed #1s Deebo Samuel and Michael Pittman and soon to be #1 Amon-Ra St. Brown (90 catches, 912 yards, 5 TDs).  Yes, rounds 2,2 & 4 but Drake London isn't lasting to mid round 1.   

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Just now, kmnj said:

no the jets need to get elite players-enough with stockpiling draft picks and cap to be used "next year"

What is your level of confidence that whoever is picked at 4 will be better than whoever is picked at 16?

Part of the reason you consider this is because there may not be any elite players in this draft.

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I would love to see a trade down.  Lots of confidence in how JD works the phones!

Typically, an NFL draft has a layer 5-10 players at the top who are regarded as significantly better than the next group.  Thus, the value of very high draft picks is quite high.  The goal is a legitimate starter or, even better, an elite pro athlete.  But all Jets fans know this is still a crap shoot.

This year's draft looks different.  There doesn't seem to be a true elite group--except possibly some of the OL prospects.  But the second tier looks especially deep and stretches well into the 2nd round.  There also seem to be a large number of solid prospects stretching in to Day 3 choices.  So trading down makes sense.

Also agree that asking for 2023 picks makes sense.  Jets have a ton of draft capital in 2022.  I worry that some picks could fall through the cracks during training camp and the season.  Spreading it over 2 years makes sense.  Doesn't help with win now, but does position Jets for a steady year-on-year improvement.  I know. I know.  Jets history doesn't breed optimism, but the current GM-CS look a significant cut better than our past.

Anyway, there's not all that much else to talk about until the Off Season Workouts start and the draft actually happens.

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1 minute ago, UntouchableCrew said:

What is your level of confidence that whoever is picked at 4 will be better than whoever is picked at 16?

Part of the reason you consider this is because there may not be any elite players in this draft.

Agreed. There is no Chase/Pitts. There are a bunch of Waddle/Moore/Smith/Batemans types in London/Williams/Olave/Wilson/Dotson/Burks. So unless the Jets absolutely fall in love with a guy at 4 and they knew he won't be there at 10, there is really no reason not to make this type of trade. 
It's not a bad draft, just not the top best top 5. 

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23 minutes ago, NIGHT STALKER said:

This is just speculation that the Giants and Jets could be trade partners...so could other teams.  Now, if the Saints were in direct contact working out a trade, that would be "trade talks heating up"...this is nothing.

Where there is smoke there is fire. Even if it turns out to be nothing it's still discussing possible trades leading up to the draft. I think JD will trade down.

14 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Agreed. There is no Chase/Pitts. There are a bunch of Waddle/Moore/Smith/Batemans types in London/Williams/Olave/Wilson/Dotson/Burks. So unless the Jets absolutely fall in love with a guy at 4 and they knew he won't be there at 10, there is really no reason not to make this type of trade. 
It's not a bad draft, just not the top best top 5. 

or top 10 for that matter.

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That number 4 pick is the pick that gets JD fired.

There is so much pressure there to pick the "Gold Jacket."   I feel better with the 10 pick.  GangGreen.com did an analysis of the past 10 4 and 10 picks, and the 10s actually ended up in more Pro Bowls.

I would feel much better about the Jets walking away with more first round picks than pick 4.

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42 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

Seriously.  Wtf.  I’m all for a good old fashioned ‘hey guys look at the video I madezzz’ attention post as much as anyone but next time he may want to change its title to something more honest like ‘click on my video. Never mind I have no sources and just speculate out my butthole but that’s gotta be worth a click, right man?’  

He's been doing this for months now.

 

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