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Why I think Drake London has the biggest bust potential of the top 5 receivers in the NFL Draft


DoomProphet
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1 hour ago, RVAJet815 said:

I honestly think he has that speed and that will show up and surprise some people in his pro day (Friday?). His qb didn't have the arm to capitalize on that speed. He'd have that here with Wilson. And he gives the Jets that bully ball aspect they don't have now. He'd be a real red zone weapon. On top of the TEs and maybe another wr/RB or two, this could be a pretty interesting, dare I say functional nfl offense. 

I’d like to see a sub 4.5, nice vert, and good shuttle if he is getting looked at for #10. 

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23 minutes ago, nickfoshizal said:

Shockingly height doesn’t prevent separation, just because a guy is 6’5” doesn’t mean he can’t separate. Just because he can outmuscle players DOES NOT MEAN HE CANT SEPARATE. Announcing that Drake London can’t separate or run routes is just announcing that you either haven’t watched him or didn’t understand what you were seeing. Guys who can’t get open don’t catch 80 balls in 6 games, period. 

I would rather draft Williams. But some of these takes are crazy. Guy catches 80 balls in six games for a ton of yards and a bunch of tds. 

 

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45 minutes ago, DoomProphet said:

Agreed. The most polarizing WR in this draft without a doubt!

 

Here's a pretty well-written analysis on London that compares him to the extreme comps - Mike Evans on the plus side, and N'Keal Harry on the downside.

https://www.rotowire.com/football/article.php?id=63005

One fact that surprised me a bit: "On a team that completed 65.4 percent of its passes at 7.4 yards per attempt, London caught 71.2 percent of his targets at 9.3 yards a pop. Harry's production at Arizona State was strong, but London's is rare."  Catch % stats aren't easy to find, but this is pretty solid.  

The author fully acknowledges London as not being fast and talks about the implications.  At the end, he drops this comp, which I hadn't seen before:  "London might compare favorably to Keenan Allen. A bigger, potentially more athletic version. Allen is a player who proved a high-volume, high-efficiency NFL target despite no one ever mistaking him for a true downfield threat, and the hope is London will prove the same. Like Allen, London is a big receiver with a point guard-like ability to cross up a defender, and that one moment of separation might be all he needs to consistently wound the defense."

None of the WRs are clean prospects but I don't get a higher-risk vibe from London than I do from Wilson or Olave.  Williams might be the safest once you look past the injury impact on the first few weeks.  Tough call.  But I wouldn't write London off just yet - at least until we see if he does run on his pro-day.

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London isn't near the route runner that Wilson, Williams, & Olave are. He's better than Burks but he doesn't have game speed or the game breaking ability that Burks has. Plus he's the slowest receiver out of the top 5. He's my WR5. Maybe that's a hot take but he scares me and I don't want the Jets to go near him.
Better fighter for the ball
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I legit worry about level of competition as well.  The pac12 is a dessert for Draft-able DBs.  He played against kyle hamiton but did not play vs washington and their two fine CBs.  Most of pac12 db's are scrubs.

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The wrs aren’t great at the top in this draft.  I do think the jets go edge at 4 whether it’s KT or JJ.  Then when 10 comes around, the only wr i think they would take is wilson, but if he’s gone I think they trade back and then who they take is a crap shoot.  They could well wind up taking a wr on day 2 and not invest a first rounder on one in this draft.

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29 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

I legit worry about level of competition as well.  The pac12 is a dessert for Draft-able DBs.  He played against kyle hamiton but did not play vs washington and their two fine CBs.  Most of pac12 db's are scrubs.

Very true.

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2 hours ago, rldev said:

I would rather draft Williams. But some of these takes are crazy. Guy catches 80 balls in six games for a ton of yards and a bunch of tds. 

 

Facts I like Jameson a little more especially in the offense we’re running, just crazy that people watch London and say the things they do. I actually suggested drafting both of them in the draft board a few months back when it looked like they could be had in the late 1st due to injury. I think those two plus Elijah Moore is such a complementary group.

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4 hours ago, ZachStepdad said:

Slow, no separation…. People like to compare him to Mike Evans because of frame and size ….. Mike Evans gets separation and he’s fast and it’s was and still is on tape ….

And anyone who thinks separation comes through sheer speed doest really understand the position and what it takes to get open

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28 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

And anyone who thinks separation comes through sheer speed doest really understand the position and what it takes to get open

I didn’t say he gets separation because he’s fast ….. I said separation and fast read that again before you make declarations about someone understanding positions. How about you understand what’s being said 

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37 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

And anyone who thinks separation comes through sheer speed doest really understand the position and what it takes to get open

Very true but London doesn't get enough consistent separation.

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1 hour ago, ZachStepdad said:

I didn’t say he gets separation because he’s fast ….. I said separation and fast read that again before you make declarations about someone understanding positions. How about you understand what’s being said 

I wasnt talking about you in particular, was talking about what some have said in the thread.  

"And anyone who thinks separation comes through sheer speed doest really understand the position and what it takes to get open"

Relax

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IMHO, London possibly one of the least likely BUST given his size and high point ability. Floor seems like pre-injury Plax Buress - that's not a bust to me in the sense that we sometimes have worry about guys flaming out altogether or not caring about being in the league, etc. 

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1 hour ago, DoomProphet said:

Very true but London doesn't get enough consistent separation.

Watch him. His qb was trash and constantly threw it late. He gets plenty of separation and is actually one of the best if not the best route runners in the class. He cuts really well and knows how to find holes in the D. He’ll be a fantastic over the middle big slot guy similar to Michael Thomas. 

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11 hours ago, Jdub03 said:

I like how you referenced  Cooper Kuup. Want to know what his 40 time was.....4.62.  Why is he successful? He is an elite route runner.  He also operates mostly from the slot, which help free him from press. London is one of the best route runners coming out of this class, he is also the best against press coverage coming out of this class.  I'd suggest you try and find video that shows the complete play. He does create separation, especially in the short to intermediate area. When your QB is throwing late or inaccurate, you'll tend to have more contested catches. 

Also, he only 20! He'll still mature physically and get bigger/faster.  Worst case, he become a very good Big Slot.

Nah is all downhill after 20 💁🏻‍♂️

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He moves really well for a big receiver. And you dont have to be a consistent downfield threat to be a damn good receiver.

I'd take him at 4 or 10, easily. If he hadnt gotten injured, his #'s at USC would be ridiculous and nobody would be sleeping on this guy.

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The guy is an excellent football player with skills that will translate to the next level:  route running, footwork, size/physicality, catch radius, instincts, and balance.  If he runs in the 4.5-4.59 range tomorrow with solid 20 splits, agility & explosion, he solidifies himself as a top 10 selection.

The fact is he doesn’t need a ton of separation and he proves this time and again on film.  And he is only getting better.

I prefer Jameson Williams but would be very happy with Drake London.

 

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15 hours ago, DoomProphet said:

 

Do you have video cut-ups to support your analysis?  
 

The guy’s highlight tape is fantastic but that obviously shows his best plays.  Maybe you are on to something but it would be helpful to see the plays that show where his limitations consistently fail.  Possibly against NFL ready corners..

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2 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

Do you have video cut-ups to support your analysis?  
 

The guy’s highlight tape is fantastic but that obviously shows his best plays.  Maybe you are on to something but it would be helpful to see the plays that show where his limitations consistently fail.  Possibly against NFL ready corners..

Yes I do. This is from 2 months ago.

 

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18 hours ago, Jdub03 said:

London is one of the best route runners coming out of this class,

I will be honest I have not looked at a ton of film on him. But I have read draft profiles and seen highlights and your statement just does not seem right. Out of the top 5 receivers in the class (Wilson, London, Burks, Williams, Olave)- my understanding is that Olave and Wilson are the best route runners. Am I wrong? lol When you say 'one of' are you saying he's better than these guys? Cuz, if the Jets are taking the top receiver in the class, they better be talking the guy who is the fastest, has the best hands, is the best route runner and can create separation with ease. To me, thats not London. I'd rather gamble on Wilson or Olave.  

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There's a small voice in my head that wonders how many PI flags London will draw against defenders.  A big part of his game is that quick come-back along the left sideline.  DBs are going to have trouble with that (unless there's a Safety doubling him, which is fine) without doing some grabbing.  Is there an NFL WR that uses that move a lot that would be a good comp for that?  I know Mike Evans for one is pretty good at that.

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5 minutes ago, nycdan said:

There's a small voice in my head that wonders how many PI flags London will draw against defenders.  A big part of his game is that quick come-back along the left sideline.  DBs are going to have trouble with that (unless there's a Safety doubling him, which is fine) without doing some grabbing.  Is there an NFL WR that uses that move a lot that would be a good comp for that?  I know Mike Evans for one is pretty good at that.

The reality here is that london is going to need a real good pro day to convince teams like the jets to consider him early in round 1.  And his injury history isn’t helping either.  Increasingly it’s looking like the only wr the jets would take at 10 is wilson and even that decision is questionable on some levels.  

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19 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I don't think he's nearly as slow as his detractors think he is.

The other thing -- our skill players are all tiny outside of Davis. We need more size. Berrios, Moore, and Carter are all really small. We need to find size somewhere.

Big TEs. 

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3 minutes ago, DoomProphet said:

I could see some team using him in the same way the Broncos used Shannon Sharpe as an undersized TE. He's going to have to bulk up in that case and work on his blocking.

Well, my point was we signed Conklin and CJ and both are BIG dudes. We now have two big targets for Zach. Not WRs but big targets apart from Davis so he's not just throwing to Berrios, Moore and Carter, who are all under 6ft tall. 

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22 hours ago, varjet said:

Look at last year's draft at the top 10 players picked.  Basically they were all sure things except the QBs, both of whom may bust.  Whoops!  We picked one.   The hit rate on the next 10 is actually pretty good too.

1-Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence QB-"generational"

2-New York Jets Zach Wilson QB-WIP

3-San Francisco 49ers Trey Lance QB-WIP

4-Atlanta Falcons Kyle Pitts †TE Florida-"generational"

5-Cincinnati Bengals Ja'Marr Chase †WR LSU-"generational"

6-Miami Dolphins Jaylen Waddle WR Alabama-solid

7-Detroit Lions Penei Sewell OT Oregon-solid 

8-Carolina Panthers Jaycee Horn CB-solid 

9-Denver Broncos Patrick Surtain II CB-solid

10-Philadelphia Eagles DeVonta Smith WR Alabama-solid

Of the next 10, you had Mac Jones, AVT, Micah Parsons, Rashaan Slater. Jaelen Phillips, and then WIP.  

This draft will show us what we have in JD.  He needs to scout these players and figure them out.   Reaching for a WR or EDGE, because that is what they play, to have them bust will be his undoing.   

Man the top-10 last year was stacked. Of course, we have TWO top-10 picks this year. Brutal how things always seem to work out in worst case scenario for the Jets. 

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