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Who is the #1 draft prospect you were most wrong about ever?


Sarge4Tide
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It's funny cuz every year there's dudes that are set to be second round picks that wind up being Superstars Davante Adams being one of the dudes I was banging on the table for.

This year give me the Ikem icky shuffle OT dude, and Jordan Davis. That's who I want at 4th and 10th.

You want to build a team that wrecks shop?

You start there.

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4 hours ago, CSNY said:

Richard Todd. Big Alabama kid who I thought was the heir apparent to Joe Willie. Had two decent seasons then got traded to the Saints for a # 1 pick and was out of the league within a year  or two.
#2 Is Johnny “Lam” Jones. When Jets drafted him I thought for sure him and Wesley would be our version of Swann and Stallworth and our offense would be unstoppable 

In my defense there are so many that I thought could not miss it’s embarrassing 

Every QB since Joe Willie.... lol

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Leinart and Deshaun Watson. I thought Leinart would be great and cool. I thought Watson’s arm was too weak for the Northeast. I also thought Rosen would be fun as the Jets QB. The majority of my other do-not-drafts were based on knowing that the Jets would have wasted those players, like Mahomes and Josh Allen. Both of those guys would be on the street had we drafted them. Similarly, Zach Wilson. 

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Very few, my resume is impeccable @HessStation but I appreciate showing you all that even the best get it wrong, every once in a while.  I'll start with my biggest gaffs and the one that stings the most because it hit home:

Quinton Coples - while he wasnt the mega bust of all busts as compared to say like a Gholston, Coples actually had some moments but he never saw a 2nd contract in the NFL and I specifically remember my wrongness on this one because I preferred him to Melvin Ingram and Chandler Jones which was a heated debate for months.

Teez Tabor - a bit of homer love here but dude was absolutely incredible in college.  I thought he'd be a stud.  2 year in the NFL, 3 years out.  He actually resurfaced last year and held his own for few games in Chicago but as a S.  Needless to say, I thought he'd be a 1st round, he was a late 2nd and terrible.

Sammy Watkins - not a mega bust, he's in the league, he's playing, had a monster game in the AFC Champ on the way to the SB but never lived up to 4th overall. 

Darren McFadden - honestly, he probably doesnt deserve to be on this list.  He actually had a very nice career in the NFL, he just never lived up to the hype, kind of similar to Sammy.

Derrick Harvey - I wanted him over Gholston.  Both mega busts.

Josh Allen - yes, I was on the "hell no" train

That's it!  That's the list.   The rest is perfection.

 

 

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Not saying I thought he'd be a superstar or anything but I remember thinking Jamarcus Russell would be good because he had the strongest arm I had ever seen (and that's still the case).  In my defense, I had no way to know the guy wasn't going to take his career seriously. 

EDIT: Now that I think about it, I remember being strongly against the Jets taking Deshaun Watson because there was some stat about no QB ever having succeeded when they didn't throw a certain MPH.  I tried doing a quick search but only found this link below. 

 

https://blackandgold.com/saints/82242-arm-strength-deshaun-watson-woefully-bad.html

Arm strength - Deshaun Watson is woefully bad

Ball Velocity Results Raise Arm Strength Concerns for QB Deshaun Watson | Pro Football Spot


Ball Velocity Results Raise Arm Strength Concerns for QB Deshaun Watson
by Mattis Holt March 13, 2017
NFL DRAFT

You can teach a quarterback a lot, but you can’t teach arm strength. That’s why the NFL Combine velocity numbers might send QB Deshaun Watson out of the 1st round.

Deshaun Watson has been the top quarterback on the board for many NFL scouts leading up to this year’s NFL Draft, but his draft stock just took a serious hit. The ball velocity for quarterbacks has been measured at the Combine since 2008. Some say it’s a meaningless stat, other says it’s a matter of life and death in the NFL.

Here’s how the top quarterback prospects in the 2017 draft class ranked in regard to ball velocity, according to CBS draft analyst Dane Brugler:

60 mph: Patrick Mahomes
59 mph: Davis Webb
56 mph: DeShone Kizer
55 mph: Mitchell Trubisky, Jerod Evans
53 mph: Nate Peterman, Brad Kaaya
49 mph: Deshaun Watson

Watson’s Woeful Number

Deshaun Watson’s 49 miles per hour is shockingly bad. The magic number for NFL quarterbacks is 55 mph. Only two quarterbacks with ball velocity below 55 mph have had any success in the NFL: Tyrod Taylor (50 mph) and Dak Prescott (54 mph). Prescott was also reportedly throwing with a minor shoulder injury at the 2016 NFL Combine.

That makes Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor the only QB with a ball velocity below 55 mph since 2008 to find a home in the NFL. Notable players with 55< ball velocity includes Bryce Petty (53 mph), AJ McCarron (53 mph), Kellen Moore (52 mph), Mike Glennon (49 mph), Christian Ponder (51 mph), TJ Yates (53 mph), Jake Locker (54 mph) and Chad Henne (53 mph) – none of which have proven themselves NFL starting caliber.

Only three players have recorded a worse velocity than 49 mph since 2008 — Colt Brennan, Armanti Edwards & Blake Sims — and Dan LeFevour, Tony Pike, Josh Johnson, and the now-Bears QB Mike Glennon are the only other four to match Deshaun Watson’s weak velocity.

Will the numbers scare away NFL teams or will general managers take a shot at the former Clemson QB despite his poor arm strength? This will definitely be a big storyline leading up to the NFL Draft in Philadelphia April 27th.


Read more: Ball Velocity Results Raise Arm Strength Concerns for QB Deshaun Watson | Pro Football Spot

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Josh Allen and Denzel Mims. 

Allen was just so inaccurate and played such weak opponents.  

Mims is a head scratcher. I still go back and watch his highlight reels and combine performance...how can he be SO BAD?

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I really thought that Gholston was going to be good.  Broke the single-season sack record at Ohio State, had a great get-off and immense physical ability.

But turned out to be stiff and a guy who really didn't care much about football.  A real miss by me and by the Jets.

In the wider NFL, I believed that Chandler Jones was going to be a bust.  Really didn't want us to pick him, and celebrated when we didn't. I didn't want the guy we picked, Coples, either - Melvin Ingram was my guy.

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11 minutes ago, Mackman55 said:

Josh Allen and Denzel Mims. 

Allen was just so inaccurate and played such weak opponents.  

Mims is a head scratcher. I still go back and watch his highlight reels and combine performance...how can he be SO BAD?

In both cases the drive/motivation to be the best player on the field. Allen has it, Mims doesn't.

 

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Trevor Lawrence, I thought he was going to be the best QB prospect since Luck. His throws lack zip and accuracy. His progressions are slow.

The fact that he will be in another system is not a good sign for his growth. If they don't protect him it will further hinder his development.

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Running back is the positions I get wrong as much as I get right. I was hoping in Jet fan futility the Jets would draft Dalvin Cook but years earlier I was crazy wrong on Lawrence Philips.

Philips had major character questions  hanging over his head from college but as a football player he seemed like a 'cant miss.'...of course there is no such thing.

 

 

 

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I’m an old guy and this player probably predates a lot of you. But , watching Ohio St RB Archie Griffin when I lived in New Jersey was truly remarkable. I believe he is the only college player to win the Heisman Trophy in back to back years. Getting drafted by the Bengals was a kiss of death for his NFL career. I really thought that his running abilities would be impactful in spite of playing for them.
What a Shame !!!


Sent from my iPad using JetNation.com mobile app

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33 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said:

Oof...I definitely thought Josh Rosen and Darnold would be the best in that class. I can't believe how bad Rosen has failed. 

Rosen was one that I got right.  Really didn't like him at all - thought he would be a middle of the road game-manager, at best.  Turns out, that was a very optimistic assessment of his NFL ability.

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11 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Doesn't have to be a Jets draft pick - a player you thought would be a bust who turned out to be great or a player you thought would be great who turned out to be a bust?

I'll straight up admit to thinking Trent Richardson would be the greatest RB in the NFL.  I also thought another Bama player, Keith McCants would be a Hall of Famer.  

It's usually 2nd-4th round QB's I totally blow.  I tend to fall in love with later-round QB's (since our own QB's have been so awful for so long, but we always seem to have one everyone "hopes" will be a FQB, so backup is the only wiggle room).  I also tend top be more about position than specific prospect.

In recent years, most of the guys I focused on turned out to be ok or TBD:

2021:  I wanted Fields.  Poop so far, but just like Zach, TBD.  I also liked Trask as a 2nd rounder if we went WR in the first, an idea I liked alot too.

2020: I wanted Jerry Jeudy at WR very badly.  I was ok with Thomas (but he was gone) or Wirfs if I recall, but was ok if we got O-line at all.  Still have hope for Becton...

2019:  I wanted T.J. Hockenson, even tho he was a clear reach at our pick.  He's been injury prone I believe, but a very good TE when healthy.  Not sure he alone would have solved our longstanding TE weakness.  Didn't want QW really or DT at all.

2018:  I wanted Baker Mayfield alot.  He was gone, didn't really feel strongly about Darnold or Rosen, was avoiding Allan (accuracy issues) and Jackson (a runner), so that was a blown year lol.

2017:  I was all over Deshaun Watson at QB.  Jamal Adams was a horrible pick IMO at that time with Watson on the Board.

2016:  I honestly don't recall now. I look back at that class now and I don't see any name I recall being passionate about actually.  May be a year I was more about position than player?  Who knows.

2015: Scherff I think, but he was gone by our pick.  Again, at this stage I sorta forget who I was hot about this far back in time.

Most years I want QB (since ours suck,), longshot later-round QB's especially some years where I knew we're just not drafting a QB high (most of whom never do anything of note, lol), O-Line (because like JD seems to be, I'm a winning starts in trenches guy) or Offensive skill players (because the NFL is Offense > Defense in this era).

 

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In 2000 I thought our 5th round WR Windrell Hayes would make our 3rd round WR Laveranues Coles cuttable.

In 2004 and 2005 I was convinced we had the steals of the draft when CBs Derrick Strait and Justin Miller fell to us in the 3rd and 2nd rounds. 

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37 minutes ago, Rob Moore said:

In 2000 I thought our 5th round WR Windrell Hayes would make our 3rd round WR Laveranues Coles cuttable.

In 2004 and 2005 I was convinced we had the steals of the draft when CBs Derrick Strait and Justin Miller fell to us in the 3rd and 2nd rounds. 

I remember doing cartwheels over that Derrick Strait pick.  I really thought we had stolen a great one there.

Nope - he was physically overmatched as a pro.

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12 hours ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Doesn't have to be a Jets draft pick - a player you thought would be a bust who turned out to be great or a player you thought would be great who turned out to be a bust?

I'll straight up admit to thinking Trent Richardson would be the greatest RB in the NFL.  I also thought another Bama player, Keith McCants would be a Hall of Famer.  

JOSH ALLEN - BILLS

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5 hours ago, Greenbloodblitz said:

Definitely that QB draft class.

I really wanted Baker Mayfield and he's turned out to be meh!?

I actually yelled out loud noooooo like Darth Vader when we took Darnold instead of Josh Rosen.

Is Rosen even still playing tennis? Man oh man was I way off....

Yes I wanted Josh Allen the guy who plays on the defensive side of the ball and wanted nothing to do with Josh Allen the QB!

So slap me a few times and I'll buy you a couple of shots!?

I was actually intrigued with Allen the QB since he came from an Alaskan type climate. And Sam was from sun n surf Cali. His arm strength was special. Any fool could see that. And the dude is Big Ben type large. QB’s like that that grow on trees. The only thing with him was you’d have to wait to develop him. So as it turned out, Allen steadily developed and Sam steadily regressed. Go Jets. 💁🏻‍♂️

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