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Who is the #1 draft prospect you were most wrong about ever?


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14 minutes ago, Maynard13 said:

I was actually intrigued with Allen the QB since he came from an Alaskan type climate. And Sam was from sun n surf Cali. His arm strength was special. Any fool could see that. And the dude is Big Ben type large. QB’s like that that grow on trees. The only thing with him was you’d have to wait to develop him. So as it turned out, Allen steadily developed and Sam steadily regressed. Go Jets. ??‍♂️

I def bought into the "Sam is in the mold of Big Ben" hype.  Not that I want to rehash this (you can search in previous threads if interested in hearing why) but I still haven't given up on Sam.

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12 hours ago, GangGreen Machine said:

I thought Reggie Bush would be a hall of fame back. Absolutely electric in college. 

I remember how pissed people were we won a game, so we didn't get him, and instead we had to settle for D'Brick, which was pure luck in hindsight.

Reggie at least had a good career.   I was pissed we missed out on Darren McFadden, who was kind of mediocre, but did have 2 1,000 yard season.

I thought the Blair Thomas, Reggie Rembert draft class was going to set us up for a huge offensive upgrade.

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13 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I def bought into the "Sam is in the mold of Big Ben" hype.  Not that I want to rehash this (you can search in previous threads if interested in hearing why) but I still haven't given up on Sam.

I think Sam will one day be a great surfer ? 

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3 hours ago, Claymation said:

Trevor Lawrence, I thought he was going to be the best QB prospect since Luck. His throws lack zip and accuracy. His progressions are slow.

The fact that he will be in another system is not a good sign for his growth. If they don't protect him it will further hinder his development.

Way too early to tell.  He showed a lot of promise at times.  His biggest problem is the team he is on.  I expect he will be a reclamation project at the end of his rookie contract.  

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its been a trail of dead with me and QBs lately... not who I thought was going to be good (RIP Josh Rosen)... but the ones i had concerns about -- are now fcking canton ohio shoe-ins lol. Mahomes - didn't trust he was would translate, Allen - major accuracy concerns, Herbert - came up flat in all the big college spots...  "Fool's gold i tell you!"

Whelp!

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12 hours ago, HessStation said:

Reggie Williams, WR, Washington, 2004 

Mike Williams, WR, USC, 2005 

Taylor Mays, SS, USC, 2010

Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU, 2013

Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama, 2013

Marquise Lee, WR, USC, 2014

 

…that’s it I was absolutely right about everything else. That ever existed. HessStation for GM 2023

 

I'm with you on a lot of these guys. I thought they would be legit. 

Recently I really thought Prince Tega Wanogho-OT Auburn was going to be a stud. 

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19 minutes ago, Paradis said:

its been a trail of dead with me and QBs lately... not who I thought was going to be good (RIP Josh Rosen)... but the ones i had concerns about -- are now fcking canton ohio shoe-ins lol. Mahomes - didn't trust he was would translate, Allen - major accuracy concerns, Herbert - came up flat in all the big college spots...  "Fool's gold i tell you!"

Whelp!

Where they go is everything.  

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4 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Not saying I thought he'd be a superstar or anything but I remember thinking Jamarcus Russell would be good because he had the strongest arm I had ever seen (and that's still the case).  In my defense, I had no way to know the guy wasn't going to take his career seriously. 

EDIT: Now that I think about it, I remember being strongly against the Jets taking Deshaun Watson because there was some stat about no QB ever having succeeded when they didn't throw a certain MPH.  I tried doing a quick search but only found this link below. 

 

https://blackandgold.com/saints/82242-arm-strength-deshaun-watson-woefully-bad.html

Arm strength - Deshaun Watson is woefully bad

Ball Velocity Results Raise Arm Strength Concerns for QB Deshaun Watson | Pro Football Spot


Ball Velocity Results Raise Arm Strength Concerns for QB Deshaun Watson
by Mattis Holt March 13, 2017
NFL DRAFT

You can teach a quarterback a lot, but you can’t teach arm strength. That’s why the NFL Combine velocity numbers might send QB Deshaun Watson out of the 1st round.

Deshaun Watson has been the top quarterback on the board for many NFL scouts leading up to this year’s NFL Draft, but his draft stock just took a serious hit. The ball velocity for quarterbacks has been measured at the Combine since 2008. Some say it’s a meaningless stat, other says it’s a matter of life and death in the NFL.

Here’s how the top quarterback prospects in the 2017 draft class ranked in regard to ball velocity, according to CBS draft analyst Dane Brugler:

60 mph: Patrick Mahomes
59 mph: Davis Webb
56 mph: DeShone Kizer
55 mph: Mitchell Trubisky, Jerod Evans
53 mph: Nate Peterman, Brad Kaaya
49 mph: Deshaun Watson

Watson’s Woeful Number

Deshaun Watson’s 49 miles per hour is shockingly bad. The magic number for NFL quarterbacks is 55 mph. Only two quarterbacks with ball velocity below 55 mph have had any success in the NFL: Tyrod Taylor (50 mph) and Dak Prescott (54 mph). Prescott was also reportedly throwing with a minor shoulder injury at the 2016 NFL Combine.

That makes Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor the only QB with a ball velocity below 55 mph since 2008 to find a home in the NFL. Notable players with 55< ball velocity includes Bryce Petty (53 mph), AJ McCarron (53 mph), Kellen Moore (52 mph), Mike Glennon (49 mph), Christian Ponder (51 mph), TJ Yates (53 mph), Jake Locker (54 mph) and Chad Henne (53 mph) – none of which have proven themselves NFL starting caliber.

Only three players have recorded a worse velocity than 49 mph since 2008 — Colt Brennan, Armanti Edwards & Blake Sims — and Dan LeFevour, Tony Pike, Josh Johnson, and the now-Bears QB Mike Glennon are the only other four to match Deshaun Watson’s weak velocity.

Will the numbers scare away NFL teams or will general managers take a shot at the former Clemson QB despite his poor arm strength? This will definitely be a big storyline leading up to the NFL Draft in Philadelphia April 27th.


Read more: Ball Velocity Results Raise Arm Strength Concerns for QB Deshaun Watson | Pro Football Spot

I've said this before, this is where the combine made a huge difference for me.  I liked Watson before the draft but then the arm strength thing and velocity came up as a big negative.  At the combine with al QBs throwing I am watching and saying 'Watson's passes are getting there just as fast and with just as much zip as almost anyone and he is way more accurate, he also is acting like a leader.  Right there it put arm concerns to rest for me.  It also reaffirmed that some of the big armed guys were terrible, such as Davis Webb.

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30 minutes ago, THE BARON said:

For the Jets, I thought Dee Milliner would be a good CB.   I didn't think he would be elite, but I was fairly sure he would be a solid CB.  There was nothing there to suggest he would be a total NFL bust. 

Injuries killed him not as much his play, he won rookie of the month near the end of his 1st year.

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Dewayne Robertson killed homer Bitonti 

I legit believed in that player, and that's when I realized that belief ain't worth sh*t

Vernon Gholston is often brought up but I never really loved VG per se. I said things there wasn't any other pick that made sense (still true) and  he needs more time (untrue) 

Now, sans hope, my scouting is fire. I wanted Mahomes over Adams. I can pick busts like Josh Rosen from a half mile away. I told everyone who would listen Josh Allen would be special. I called the Becton pick live on a Jets podcast (and I still like that pick). 


Turns out, being right has to be it's own reward. Because no one will remember your victories but haters will remember your mistakes. 

this year, I'm ok with any 4/10 pick besides KT and Hamilton.  If it were up to me, I'd take Ikey and JJ, look for WR like Alec Pierce or Tyler Lindy at top of rd 2.  3 of the top 4 picks on offense. The defense stinks but Saleh can rebuild using the mid-to-late round picks again. Or not. This 4-3 defense can use a Sauce but it doesn't need one. 

this isn't Rex Ryan's era the NFL doesn't care one whit about defense. They want shootouts and that's the only way this team can get to 7 or 8 wins is by scoring way more. This franchise has to build around Zach, and despite all this zen talk, drafting a ton of defense doesn't really help Zach. 

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3 hours ago, chirorob said:

I remember how pissed people were we won a game, so we didn't get him, and instead we had to settle for D'Brick, which was pure luck in hindsight.

Reggie at least had a good career.   I was pissed we missed out on Darren McFadden, who was kind of mediocre, but did have 2 1,000 yard season.

I thought the Blair Thomas, Reggie Rembert draft class was going to set us up for a huge offensive upgrade.

Oh man, that 90 class!!!…..I was so hyped about getting Rembert and thought BT would at least be a very good back for us. I really wanted Junior Seau (largely because, what a cool ass name…and he did have something like 20 sacks at SC)…all the hype that year was McCants but somehow I don’t remember being that fussed about him.That was a brutal draft for us 

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30 minutes ago, redlichtie said:

Oh man, that 90 class!!!…..I was so hyped about getting Rembert and thought BT would at least be a very good back for us. I really wanted Junior Seau (largely because, what a cool ass name…and he did have something like 20 sacks at SC)…all the hype that year was McCants but somehow I don’t remember being that fussed about him.That was a brutal draft for us 

I wanted Cortez Kennedy, mainly because I grew up with the Sack Exchange, and thought it'd be great to have a good defensive tackle.   However, I though BT would be a really good running back.

 

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14 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

+1

I'll throw Stephen Hill in there too.  For whatever reason I really thought he become a high-end WR2 in this league.  Maybe it was reinforced by his very first NFL game in Week 1 vs Buffalo which turned out to be the best of his entire career.  5 catches, 89 yards, 2 TDs.

 

 

I loved the that kid the moment he went up on stage and put on the Jets hat. He was was so excited, had a giant, genuine ear-to-ear smile. It’s a real shame it didn’t work out for him. 

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3 hours ago, bitonti said:

this year, I'm ok with any 4/10 pick besides KT and Hamilton.  If it were up to me, I'd take Ikey and JJ, look for WR like Alec Pierce or Tyler Lindy at top of rd 2.  3 of the top 4 picks on offense. The defense stinks but Saleh can rebuild using the mid-to-late round picks again. Or not. This 4-3 defense can use a Sauce but it doesn't need one. 

this isn't Rex Ryan's era the NFL doesn't care one whit about defense. They want shootouts and that's the only way this team can get to 7 or 8 wins is by scoring way more. This franchise has to build around Zach, and despite all this zen talk, drafting a ton of defense doesn't really help Zach. 

I'm fine with pass rushers.  You can't hit a WR, you can't hit a tight end, but if you can rush the passer you can still stop the other team's offense.

That being said, I can't get on board with KT.   Every time I start to change my mind, he starts talking, and I'm like, "nope, can't take that risk at #4"  And, I'm sorry, you don't take a safety top 10.   You want a new OT to be insurance for Becton and take over for Fant in a year, great.   You want 1 or 2 pass rushers in the 1st two round, great. 

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