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A Warfish Type Mock Draft


Warfish
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6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Yes, this is using the horribly unreliable Mock Draft Simulator, but it's a good way to display the kind of thinking I have about this draft cycle.

Note:  No Trades here, because this simulators trade AI is just loldumb, you could end up with all 32 1'sts in 2023 if you know how to play the AI, lol.  So I just went strait as-in on picks, no trades.

As always, I am more about the position than the player, for any name on here, I could be convinced another X is a better X than the one I might have picked (even for Wilson, who I love as a prospect).

Ultimately, as with any simulator, you pick the players that the simulation gives you at your picks, based on your priorities, prospect value, etc.

This one is a good simulation of what I think are our needs and priorities, and how best to fill as many of them as possible with the best possible prospects.

Note:  Like the Simulator, I too think the top two Edges will be gone by pick #4, I didn't farm the Simulator to get an interation when they fell just so I could say "we get Thibs!".  

Fire Retardent Suit on, flame away! :)

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Checks every Jets box, for better or worse

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4 minutes ago, PepPep said:

I would have gone in a slightly different direction BUT I have no issue with this draft. kudos.

One thing that I would have loved to address at some point is OT...but what can ya do? 

It was an option at many of the picks, for example instead of the 2nd Edge, the TE or the 2nd LB.

Ultimately, I am in the "Becton gets another year" camp on the O-line, and would not draft his replacement yet.  But one could certainly argue OT as a mid-round or later round pick (instead of the C for example) could be quite reasonable.  

I just don't see using a top pick on an OT now, not yet.  Next year, if Becton blows his chance, absolutely.  But I really want to believe Becton will be back and play well in 2022.  Call me the homer for a change, lol.

The other big "we didn't get help" was at CB/DB.  But I have to hope with our FA signing, and Hall and Co. in their 2nd year, and with a (hopefully much improved) pass rush with Lawson back and two new high-pick edges, that the existing DB's will be adequate.  Can't fix everything in one year, and CB could be a top priority in 2023 if we draft in the direction above, admittedly.

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I'd be ok with this. Get some top tier weapons for zach. Developmental C late to take over next year (hopefully) and have the chemistry already developing. I think JD continues his trend from last year and tries to address particular position groups instead of getting a little of everything like he did year 1. In this case I agree with attacking DL and LB. Get some youth and talent and you hope to hit on one of the prospects at both levels. Leaves you in good position to look for final peices on O and D next year (FS/more weapons?).

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25 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Yes, this is using the horribly unreliable Mock Draft Simulator, but it's a good way to display the kind of thinking I have about this draft cycle.

Note:  No Trades here, because this simulators trade AI is just loldumb, you could end up with all 32 1'sts in 2023 if you know how to play the AI, lol.  So I just went strait as-in on picks, no trades.

As always, I am more about the position than the player, for any name on here, I could be convinced another X is a better X than the one I might have picked (even for Wilson, who I love as a prospect).

Ultimately, as with any simulator, you pick the players that the simulation gives you at your picks, based on your priorities, prospect value, etc.

This one is a good simulation of what I think are our needs and priorities, and how best to fill as many of them as possible with the best possible prospects.

Note:  Like the Simulator, I too think the top two Edges will be gone by pick #4, I didn't farm the Simulator to get an interation when they fell just so I could say "we get Thibs!".  

Fire Retardent Suit on, flame away! :)

FishDraftI.jpg.cb2f899587b95648b3259b04254a6bf7.jpg

I like it BUT, Travon is the most over rated player in this draft. He had something like 6 sacks and 30 tackles. JJ more of less DOUBLED those numbers playing in the same conference. 

I DO like the idea of an EDGE in 1, and then ANOTHER EDGE like arnold or mafe in 2.

Also, Id snag a second wr in the 4th like a Pierce

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30 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Yes, this is using the horribly unreliable Mock Draft Simulator, but it's a good way to display the kind of thinking I have about this draft cycle.

Note:  No Trades here, because this simulators trade AI is just loldumb, you could end up with all 32 1'sts in 2023 if you know how to play the AI, lol.  So I just went strait as-in on picks, no trades.

As always, I am more about the position than the player, for any name on here, I could be convinced another X is a better X than the one I might have picked (even for Wilson, who I love as a prospect).

Ultimately, as with any simulator, you pick the players that the simulation gives you at your picks, based on your priorities, prospect value, etc.

This one is a good simulation of what I think are our needs and priorities, and how best to fill as many of them as possible with the best possible prospects.

Note:  Like the Simulator, I too think the top two Edges will be gone by pick #4, I didn't farm the Simulator to get an interation when they fell just so I could say "we get Thibs!".  

Fire Retardent Suit on, flame away! :)

FishDraftI.jpg.cb2f899587b95648b3259b04254a6bf7.jpg

Those first 5 picks are fire!

Playmakers on O and a potential pass rush that QBs can't get away from!

 

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31 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Yes, this is using the horribly unreliable Mock Draft Simulator, but it's a good way to display the kind of thinking I have about this draft cycle.

Note:  No Trades here, because this simulators trade AI is just loldumb, you could end up with all 32 1'sts in 2023 if you know how to play the AI, lol.  So I just went strait as-in on picks, no trades.

As always, I am more about the position than the player, for any name on here, I could be convinced another X is a better X than the one I might have picked (even for Wilson, who I love as a prospect).

Ultimately, as with any simulator, you pick the players that the simulation gives you at your picks, based on your priorities, prospect value, etc.

This one is a good simulation of what I think are our needs and priorities, and how best to fill as many of them as possible with the best possible prospects.

Note:  Like the Simulator, I too think the top two Edges will be gone by pick #4, I didn't farm the Simulator to get an interation when they fell just so I could say "we get Thibs!".  

Fire Retardent Suit on, flame away! :)

FishDraftI.jpg.cb2f899587b95648b3259b04254a6bf7.jpg

Solid.  Curious, who were you debating between at 35?  I like Ebiketie, dont love especially in the double dip situation...so just curious.

Interesting you doubled dipped late at ILB late too but good value for both players.

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4 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

I like it BUT, Travon is the most over rated player in this draft. He had something like 6 sacks and 30 tackles. JJ more of less DOUBLED those numbers playing in the same conference. 

I DO like the idea of an EDGE in 1, and then ANOTHER EDGE like arnold or mafe in 2.

Also, Id snag a second wr in the 4th like a Pierce

Walker is not without risk, but Walker and Johnson played in different conferences FWIW. And there are several quotes from Johnson about him needing to leave Georgia - where Walker didn’t put up big numbers - in order to have the opportunity to put up big numbers.

Never been a fan of the Johnson-Walker numbers argument for that reason. If Johnson needed to leave the school Walker didn’t put up numbers at in order to put up numbers, I can’t really see how comparing their numbers is they meaningful of a measure of them as prospects.

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On the Walker vs. Thibs vs. Johnson question, to be clear I don't have a real educated preference, because I honestly have focused on Offensive talent this draft cycle.

Thibs is almost always taken in the simulator before pick #4.  He's probably my preference at the #4 pick if he drops any, just from the sources I read and the word here at JN.

Walker vs. Johnson, as I said, I think I could be convinced either way by people who have done more work scouting these two guys specifically. 

Edge is a vital need, so even if the top 2 are in fact gone, I still take a swing at one of the two who seem to be just behind Thibs and Hutch (who likely goes #1 overall, and isn't in the picture).

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25 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Solid.  Curious, who were you debating between at 35?  I like Ebiketie, dont love especially in the double dip situation...so just curious.

Interesting you doubled dipped late at ILB late too but good value for both players.

There are a few players in that range I like, but didn't feel they were right for us, right now.

A great example is Center Tyler Linderbaum, rated (in the simulator) as the #34 prospect.  As you likely know, I am a huge proponent of O-line, and I think this kid is likely a real-deal, possibly even a Mangold-level talent.  He's very tempting in a situation where Lawson comes back and we get Thibs or Walker or Johnson or even Karlaftis as the opposite Edge.  But Center doesn't feel like that vital a need right now compared to edge and even rotational depth at edge/backup for if Lawson isn't the old Lawson.  Three edges seems like a requirement for the Saleh system.

If not a edge there, a guy like Devonte Wyatt at DT could be an option, as much as I don't really want to go DT there or that early.  He's a big boy, has some rush talent, and may be an underrated talent at DT that is likely available at that spot too.  Probably not the same impact as Ebiketie, nor at an equally premium position.  Or maybe I just underrate DT as a position compared to Edge currently in terms of helping this specific Jets Defense improve.

I've seen some sims that have LB Nakobe Dean drop to that range, and while he seems to be more of a run-stopper type LB not as good in pass defense, it's very tempting to address our weak LB corp. earlier if he were to fall.  But he is rated #29 in the simulator, and unlikely to be there at #35 (and wasn't for the one I did above).

And of course, being who I am, another WR is always tempting IMO, and there are a few who could be there at #35, London or Burks could fall (they're ranked #24 and #25 in the sim), or more likely a guy like Christian Watson (6'5", 208) who might pair with Wilson/Moore very well since those two cover the speedy/agility style of WR pretty well, with Watson perhaps filling the "big durable fighter" WR mold along with our new and drafted TE's,

Lot of options, really.

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2 minutes ago, Guilhermezmc said:

Still trying to understand how can you draft a edge at 4 who can't rush the passer

Change Walker to Johnson or Karloftis if you prefer.  All were available and are regularly available at #4.

As I said, less about the guy, more about the position and who is likely to be available.

If you hate Walker, and lobe Johnson or Karloftis, sub them in instead.

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I would throw out there that I do like the big edge-little edge. Doesn’t have to be in that order necessarily and they could go with Logan Hall or something day two.

To me, for a team that conceptually runs out an explosive edge, a big edge who kicks in on passing downs, an explosive DT, and a DT who eats up blockers and returns Lawson-Williams-JFM among starters I think it’s more likely that a DT or a smaller than JFM but still big and good against the run edge (Walker, Hall, potentially Karlaftis in some situations) walks into a day one starting role than a pure pass rushing edge. That doesn’t mean it needs to be addressed first, pass rush is definitely more of a premium position and I think if they love someone they should and will take him.

But they’ve got three smaller guys with higher win rates - Lawson, Huff, and Martin who they just signed. I don’t think they should be content there and like I said I think if they love someone they should and will take him. But if they think this group is just okay, the actual team need us more for bigger guys and it’s still an important role on the defensive front.

TLDR I think fans try to force pass rushing edge because it’s a premium position and Douglas/Saleh believe in building up front but their depth at big edge and DT is worse and I think they’ve positioned themselves to not force a pass rusher in a draft where there are pass rushers but they all have big questions for guys we’re talking about at 4.

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57 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Yes, this is using the horribly unreliable Mock Draft Simulator, but it's a good way to display the kind of thinking I have about this draft cycle.

Note:  No Trades here, because this simulators trade AI is just loldumb, you could end up with all 32 1'sts in 2023 if you know how to play the AI, lol.  So I just went strait as-in on picks, no trades.

As always, I am more about the position than the player, for any name on here, I could be convinced another X is a better X than the one I might have picked (even for Wilson, who I love as a prospect).

Ultimately, as with any simulator, you pick the players that the simulation gives you at your picks, based on your priorities, prospect value, etc.

This one is a good simulation of what I think are our needs and priorities, and how best to fill as many of them as possible with the best possible prospects.

Note:  Like the Simulator, I too think the top two Edges will be gone by pick #4, I didn't farm the Simulator to get an interation when they fell just so I could say "we get Thibs!".  

Fire Retardent Suit on, flame away! :)

FishDraftI.jpg.cb2f899587b95648b3259b04254a6bf7.jpg

I like it a lot. Sign me up now!  But I brought up the possibility of taking Travon Walker at 4 and edge at 10 or 35/38 and lets just say it didnt go over well here. 😂

Let Me In Conan Obrien GIF by Team Coco

 

 

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26 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

I like it BUT, Travon is the most over rated player in this draft. He had something like 6 sacks and 30 tackles. JJ more of less DOUBLED those numbers playing in the same conference. 

I DO like the idea of an EDGE in 1, and then ANOTHER EDGE like arnold or mafe in 2.

Also, Id snag a second wr in the 4th like a Pierce

While I agree that Travon's lack of production is worrisome, there are a few things to keep in mind when considering drafting him...

1. He is raw. So you have to project him a bit. He is an uber athlete for a guy with his size/length. So you really have to take that into account. It's rare and translates. 

2. You can't just look at the sack numbers. At Georgia he was part of an absolutely stacked D-line with elite LBs to boot. There were guys making plays all over the place. Odds are you put him on a weaker defense and he would have tripled his production just because he would have been the only guy making all the plays. You also have the fact that Georgia rotated their players a lot AND asked him to do multiple things on D- move inside, set the edge, fall back into coverage. If he was out there primarily as a pass rusher he would have definitely gotten more sacks. Again, I'm not saying he's a sure thing. He's raw. But you can't just look at his sack total and say 'well this guy is totally overrated'. 

3. Fit. Saleh is looking for a specific type of pass rusher and JD is looking for a specific type of player. Walker seems to fit that to a T. Saleh likes to rotate guys and he likes versatile linemen who can do different things on defense and line up all over. Walker has the size (6'5, 275!), athleticism and experience to do that. Walker comes form a championship program and has zero character concerns. Walker is also a high RAS guy who checks a lot of boxes for the type of player JD drafts. 

*Also, love Pierce and have been hyping him up for quite some time. If we are going to double dip at WR, I would love to add him to the mix.   

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Yes, this is using the horribly unreliable Mock Draft Simulator, but it's a good way to display the kind of thinking I have about this draft cycle.

Note:  No Trades here, because this simulators trade AI is just loldumb, you could end up with all 32 1'sts in 2023 if you know how to play the AI, lol.  So I just went strait as-in on picks, no trades.

As always, I am more about the position than the player, for any name on here, I could be convinced another X is a better X than the one I might have picked (even for Wilson, who I love as a prospect).

Ultimately, as with any simulator, you pick the players that the simulation gives you at your picks, based on your priorities, prospect value, etc.

This one is a good simulation of what I think are our needs and priorities, and how best to fill as many of them as possible with the best possible prospects.

Note:  Like the Simulator, I too think the top two Edges will be gone by pick #4, I didn't farm the Simulator to get an interation when they fell just so I could say "we get Thibs!".  

Fire Retardent Suit on, flame away! :)

FishDraftI.jpg.cb2f899587b95648b3259b04254a6bf7.jpg

No @ 4. Sauce a better pick. Edge @ 10 (JJ). @ 35 WR C Watson. @ 38 no RB. NO…NO…NO. @38 Muma LB. @69 TE McBride aok. @111 S McKinley. @117 RB Pierre Strong Jr. @ 163 aok!

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48 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Yes, this is using the horribly unreliable Mock Draft Simulator, but it's a good way to display the kind of thinking I have about this draft cycle.

Note:  No Trades here, because this simulators trade AI is just loldumb, you could end up with all 32 1'sts in 2023 if you know how to play the AI, lol.  So I just went strait as-in on picks, no trades.

As always, I am more about the position than the player, for any name on here, I could be convinced another X is a better X than the one I might have picked (even for Wilson, who I love as a prospect).

Ultimately, as with any simulator, you pick the players that the simulation gives you at your picks, based on your priorities, prospect value, etc.

This one is a good simulation of what I think are our needs and priorities, and how best to fill as many of them as possible with the best possible prospects.

Note:  Like the Simulator, I too think the top two Edges will be gone by pick #4, I didn't farm the Simulator to get an interation when they fell just so I could say "we get Thibs!".  

Fire Retardent Suit on, flame away! :)

FishDraftI.jpg.cb2f899587b95648b3259b04254a6bf7.jpg

i do love this, though im not sure i would double dip at Edge or LB. i am a little worried about Joyner so i would draft a safety in rd 2.

i LOVE getting the RB and McBride. im shocked McBride lasted till the 3rd rd. he was mocked in the late 1st rd about a month or so ago. but we see these mocks changing since the combine and pro days. 

we Need a 3rd LB but we dont play base enough to warrant 2 of them. 

i  too dont want to give up on Becton and we arent if we pick a backup OL at 111 or 117. and i love the center pick. i keep seeing this kids name. if we use 2 late picks on those spots then next year they can replace anyone we need replacing. you know the OL cult will be back next year telling us if Fant doesn't resign or if Becton sucks that the Jets cant live without the top OL in the draft. and we can stop hearing about getting a Mangod replacement.... at least for a few years.

overall you did a really good job. 👍. this mock is the closest one to my thoughts on the draft

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20 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

I like this draft a lot, but I think I'm at this point right now that all I really care about is getting Brece Hall.

 

 

Hell yes. Breece Hall instantly turns this into a nasty power running offense, with the addition of home run speed and pass catching out of the backfield. I’m taking him at 35 if he’s on the board. 

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

It was an option at many of the picks, for example instead of the 2nd Edge, the TE or the 2nd LB.

Ultimately, I am in the "Becton gets another year" camp on the O-line, and would not draft his replacement yet.  But one could certainly argue OT as a mid-round or later round pick (instead of the C for example) could be quite reasonable.  

I just don't see using a top pick on an OT now, not yet.  Next year, if Becton blows his chance, absolutely.  But I really want to believe Becton will be back and play well in 2022.  Call me the homer for a change, lol.

The other big "we didn't get help" was at CB/DB.  But I have to hope with our FA signing, and Hall and Co. in their 2nd year, and with a (hopefully much improved) pass rush with Lawson back and two new high-pick edges, that the existing DB's will be adequate.  Can't fix everything in one year, and CB could be a top priority in 2023 if we draft in the direction above, admittedly.

I think the need is there for a center, as the team only has one and he is a FA after the season.

Better to draft one now, let him learn the offense for a year, and be ready next year rather than HAVING to draft one with a high draft pick next year.

For tackle, it's not just, "Is Becton a bust?", but it's also our left tackle is a 30 year old FA after this season who just had a career year.   Is he really that good, can he stay healthy?  

As for taking 2 defensive ends in the 1st 2 rounds, the Jets currently have maybe 1 (depending on the Achilles) and they like to rotate, so I don't have a problem taking two.

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Also, all the pass rushers have some issues, but Travon is bigger than most, with 20 pounds on KT and some of the other ones, meaning he should be better against the run, which does matter.

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Just now, PS17 said:

Hell yes. Breece Hall instantly turns this into a nasty power running offense, with the addition of home run speed and pass catching out of the backfield. I’m taking him at 35 if he’s on the board. 

QB - Wilson

RB - Carter & Breece Hall

WR - Wilson, Davis, Moore, Berrios, Mims

TE - Uzomeh, Conklin, McBride, Yeboah

I feel like this is a Skill Position group that gives Zach every opportunity to do well and win games.

And that is my main goal for 2022.  To give Zach, our single most important player and asset, every possible opportunity to succeed.

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

It was an option at many of the picks, for example instead of the 2nd Edge, the TE or the 2nd LB.

Ultimately, I am in the "Becton gets another year" camp on the O-line, and would not draft his replacement yet.  But one could certainly argue OT as a mid-round or later round pick (instead of the C for example) could be quite reasonable.  

I just don't see using a top pick on an OT now, not yet.  Next year, if Becton blows his chance, absolutely.  But I really want to believe Becton will be back and play well in 2022.  Call me the homer for a change, lol.

The other big "we didn't get help" was at CB/DB.  But I have to hope with our FA signing, and Hall and Co. in their 2nd year, and with a (hopefully much improved) pass rush with Lawson back and two new high-pick edges, that the existing DB's will be adequate.  Can't fix everything in one year, and CB could be a top priority in 2023 if we draft in the direction above, admittedly.

Our CBs were a pleasant surprise last year, I would have no issues with going into camp as we currently stand. Give the younger guys another year to really come into their own and see who surprises, who has already peaked etc.

If McBride is still there in Rd 3 then he's a great pick. If not and this becomes a backup / potential future starter at OT that would fill that particular need.

Overall I like the draft and can easily see us going Walker at 4 ... I know it will split opinion about "potential" vs "production" but with the doubling down at Edge in Rd 2 and the stated desire to rotate guys in at DL I can easily see this happening. I picked Walker as "who will we draft" in Sarge's poll earlier today.

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10 minutes ago, Warfish said:

QB - Wilson

RB - Carter & Breece Hall

WR - Wilson, Davis, Moore, Berrios, Mims

TE - Uzomeh, Conklin, McBride, Yeboah

I feel like this is a Skill Position group that gives Zach every opportunity to do well and win games.

And that is my main goal for 2022.  To give Zach, our single most important player and asset, every possible opportunity to succeed.

I like it. I would add another receiver to compete with Mims for the 5th spot, whether via trade or a mid-late round pick. But we are in firm agreement in surrounding Zach with legit playmakers. It’s a no brainer. 
 

I think we can afford to have the defense be mediocre to not good for another year if it means having a good offense. We cannot afford a good defense with another year of bad offense.

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Yes, this is using the horribly unreliable Mock Draft Simulator, but it's a good way to display the kind of thinking I have about this draft cycle.

Note:  No Trades here, because this simulators trade AI is just loldumb, you could end up with all 32 1'sts in 2023 if you know how to play the AI, lol.  So I just went strait as-in on picks, no trades.

As always, I am more about the position than the player, for any name on here, I could be convinced another X is a better X than the one I might have picked (even for Wilson, who I love as a prospect).

Ultimately, as with any simulator, you pick the players that the simulation gives you at your picks, based on your priorities, prospect value, etc.

This one is a good simulation of what I think are our needs and priorities, and how best to fill as many of them as possible with the best possible prospects.

Note:  Like the Simulator, I too think the top two Edges will be gone by pick #4, I didn't farm the Simulator to get an interation when they fell just so I could say "we get Thibs!".  

Fire Retardent Suit on, flame away! :)

FishDraftI.jpg.cb2f899587b95648b3259b04254a6bf7.jpg

I personally wouldn't fire you if it played out like that.

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14 minutes ago, Warfish said:

QB - Wilson

RB - Carter & Breece Hall

WR - Wilson, Davis, Moore, Berrios, Mims

TE - Uzomeh, Conklin, McBride, Yeboah

I feel like this is a Skill Position group that gives Zach every opportunity to do well and win games.

And that is my main goal for 2022.  To give Zach, our single most important player and asset, every possible opportunity to succeed.

Yes.

This is a legitimate NFL offense - top tier playmakers and potential at every level and an offensive line that should be top 10.

Honestly, if this is the lineup AND they stay mostly healthy - I would be surprised if Wilson doesn't put up 4,000 yards.

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56 minutes ago, Warfish said:

A great example is Center Tyler Linderbaum, rated (in the simulator) as the #34 prospect.  As you likely know, I am a huge proponent of O-line, and I think this kid is likely a real-deal, possibly even a Mangold-level talent.  He's very tempting in a situation where Lawson comes back and we get Thibs or Walker or Johnson or even Karlaftis as the opposite Edge.  But Center doesn't feel like that vital a need right now compared to edge and even rotational depth at edge/backup for if Lawson isn't the old Lawson.  Three edges seems like a requirement for the Saleh system.

If not a edge there, a guy like Devonte Wyatt at DT could be an option, as much as I don't really want to go DT there or that early.  He's a big boy, has some rush talent, and may be an underrated talent at DT that is likely available at that spot too.  Probably not the same impact as Ebiketie, nor at an equally premium position.  Or maybe I just underrate DT as a position compared to Edge currently in terms of helping this specific Jets Defense improve.

Cool, I think this where we would differ.  I'd prefer both to Ebiketie.

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