A Warfish Type Mock Draft

[FootballLove]

Fant hasn't signed his extension offer yet (and may never) b/c JD has Fant pegged as a swing tackle. Fant wants starting LT money and JD won't go there. It's more likely he trades Fant than pay him that much. Jet could be going into 2023 with exactly one tackle on the roster.

The ONLY way JD passes on Ekwonu at 4 is if he's already gone, or a top top top top edge rusher is there. Ekwonu/Tomlinson/AVT/Becton gives JD a dominant Oline (the most important position group in football) for a decade for pennies on the dollar. 3 first round picks all on rookie contracts. Money.

What Zack Wilson needs more than a #1 WR is 3-4+ seconds of clean pocket to operate in, every passing down.

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, varjet said:

Great mock.  What S was available at 35?  I think we have enough EDGE for 2022 but if Joyner goes down this team is toast.  

I honestly don't recall. 

I would presume it could have been Jaquan Brisker (#33 prospect), and maybe Lewis Cine (#31 prospect).  I honestly wasn't looking at S that early myself.

The simulator then doesn't rank another safety until the #62 prospect, Jalen Pitre, so at #35 presumably all the S from Pitre onwards were available.

Simulator is here if you'd like to look or run one of your own  -- https://www.profootballnetwork.com/mockdraft/

You can see how the simulator currently ranks everyone by starting a mock yourself.  

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

Fant hasn't signed his extension offer yet (and may never) b/c JD has Fant pegged as a swing tackle. Fant wants starting LT money and JD won't go there. It's more likely he trades Fant than pay him that much. Jet could be going into 2023 with exactly one tackle on the roster.

The ONLY way JD passes on Ekwonu at 4 is if he's already gone, or a top top top top edge rusher is there. Ekwonu/Tomlinson/AVT/Becton gives JD a dominant Oline (the most important position group in football) for a decade for pennies on the dollar. 3 first round picks all on rookie contracts. Money.

What Zack Wilson needs more than a #1 WR is 3-4+ seconds of clean pocket to operate in, every passing down.

Interesting take.  Makes some good points.  Just not sure Fant is as gone as you might think, but it's certainly possible, and would change priorities indeed.

[bitonti]

20 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

Fant hasn't signed his extension offer yet (and may never) b/c JD has Fant pegged as a swing tackle. Fant wants starting LT money and JD won't go there. It's more likely he trades Fant than pay him that much. Jet could be going into 2023 with exactly one tackle on the roster.

The ONLY way JD passes on Ekwonu at 4 is if he's already gone, or a top top top top edge rusher is there. Ekwonu/Tomlinson/AVT/Becton gives JD a dominant Oline (the most important position group in football) for a decade for pennies on the dollar. 3 first round picks all on rookie contracts. Money.

What Zack Wilson needs more than a #1 WR is 3-4+ seconds of clean pocket to operate in, every passing down.

This is exactly what I came here to post

OT at 4 would be a Fant replacement. Who is 30, on the last year of his deal and requires 15 mil per year on an extension

JD is just going to draft his replacement. Because that's Jets football. Not finding a bag for Fant (and McGovern, btw is in the same situation) 

However you lose me at the end, Zach needs a #1 WR as well as more OL. The Jets are going to double dip on offense at one, assuming they keep those picks. The defense is still terrible but offense sells tickets  (and saves JD's job if he can develop ZW) 

from Connor

Quote

There’s a belief that the Jets’ offensive line is set. They’re solid on the interior (Tomlinson, Connor McGovern, Alijah Vera-Tucker), but that tackle spot is anything but.

We’ve talked ad nauseum about the Mekhi Becton concerns. Rich Cimini wrote a great story on his attempted bounce-back this week, and in it, mentioned how Becton ballooned to more than 400 pounds while injured. That’s the second time in two years he’s weighed that much. A source with the Jets in 2020, Becton’s rookie season, said he eclipsed that number then, too. Becton hasn’t exactly been an All-Pro when healthy. He allowed seven sacks as a rookie, struggling mightily against speed rushers, and had a horrible training camp before getting injured in the opener. You love the potential and talent — but he needs to put it together. Faith is all you’re banking on for that happening in 2022.

I’m not sure when George Fant’s 2021 season made him Jonathan Ogden. He was solid. Claiming him to be anything more is a serious stretch. He had a Pro Football Focus grade of 71.1. There are also durability concerns with Fant. He missed games with the Jets in 2021 and 2020. He missed the entire 2017 season with the Seahawks with a knee injury. He’s never started 16 games in his career. He’s also on the final year of his contract.

What do the Jets do at tackle if Becton’s injured again? Or he’s healthy but struggles as he did last summer? What do the Jets do if Fant regresses to the mean? Or if he walks in free agency?

Tackle is absolutely a positional need. Does it need to be addressed at No. 4? No, probably not. But for a general manager who preaches selecting the “best player available,” I’m not sure how he passes on Ekwonu, assuming the top three rushers are gone.

 

[HighPitch]

2 hours ago, PepPep said:

 

2. You can't just look at the sack numbers. At Georgia he was part of an absolutely stacked D-line with elite LBs to boot. There were guys making plays all over the place. Odds are you put him on a weaker defense and he would have tripled his production just because he would have been the only guy making all the plays. You also have the fact that Georgia rotated their players a lot AND asked him to do multiple things on D- move inside, set the edge, fall back into coverage. If he was out there primarily as a pass rusher he would have definitely gotten more sacks. Again, I'm not saying he's a sure thing. He's raw. But you can't just look at his sack total and say 'well this guy is totally overrated'. 

 

I can make the couter argument. If he was part of a stacked team, then his numbers should be higher. If everyone else is busy and he cant be double teamed, he should really put up huge numbers. 

 

IDK, Ive been drafting for a long time and I cant remember an edge with his low numbers being talked up as top 3 in a draft EVER!

[ZachEY]

Just did this for the first time and I think I beat the game:

 

[UntouchableCrew]

I don't want Travon Walker at 4 but other than that I'd be happy with this.

[Jet Nut]

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

Yes, this is using the horribly unreliable Mock Draft Simulator, but it's a good way to display the kind of thinking I have about this draft cycle.

Note:  No Trades here, because this simulators trade AI is just loldumb, you could end up with all 32 1'sts in 2023 if you know how to play the AI, lol.  So I just went strait as-in on picks, no trades.

As always, I am more about the position than the player, for any name on here, I could be convinced another X is a better X than the one I might have picked (even for Wilson, who I love as a prospect).

Ultimately, as with any simulator, you pick the players that the simulation gives you at your picks, based on your priorities, prospect value, etc.

This one is a good simulation of what I think are our needs and priorities, and how best to fill as many of them as possible with the best possible prospects.

Note:  Like the Simulator, I too think the top two Edges will be gone by pick #4, I didn't farm the Simulator to get an interation when they fell just so I could say "we get Thibs!".  

Fire Retardent Suit on, flame away!

Would love the board to fall this way for the first 5 picks.

Nice job

[slimjasi]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I don't want Travon Walker at 4 but other than that I'd be happy with this.

agreed

[65 Toss Power Trap]

Looks pretty reasonable. I hate that we have to reach for a wr at 10, but I'm more and more convinced Wilson is the guy to get. His skills remind analysts and NFL guys of Devante Adams (not that he'll ever get there, it's a nice upside possibility though).

[Scott Dierking]

3 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Cool, I think this where we would differ.  I'd prefer both to Ebiketie.

Yup, not an Ebiketie fan, and I watched him lots. Not in that spot.

[68JET11]

I prefer this. I was able to trade back a few times. 4 rounds....

16. Jermaine Johnson EDGE

24. Treylon Burks WR

35. Breece Hall RB

38. Tyler Linderbaum OC

43. Chad Muma LB

49. Boye Mafe EDGE

56. Alec Pierce WR

69. Brandon Smith LB

88. Jake Ferguson TE

111. Matt Waletzko OT North Dakota

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, ZachEY said:

Just did this for the first time and I think I beat the game:

 

Sure, if you dont want a pass rusher opposite Carl Lawson this year.

[JustInFudge]

37 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Yup, not an Ebiketie fan, and I watched him lots. Not in that spot.

Who did you like better coming out, him or Gross-Matos?

[FootballLove]

3 hours ago, bitonti said:

This is exactly what I came here to post

OT at 4 would be a Fant replacement. Who is 30, on the last year of his deal and requires 15 mil per year on an extension

JD is just going to draft his replacement. Because that's Jets football. Not finding a bag for Fant (and McGovern, btw is in the same situation) 

However you lose me at the end, Zach needs a #1 WR as well as more OL. The Jets are going to double dip on offense at one, assuming they keep those picks. The defense is still terrible but offense sells tickets  (and saves JD's job if he can develop ZW) 

from Connor

 

I included that last sentence about ZW benefiting more from a great oline than he would from another WR b/c if JD goes edge at 4, then he'll be faced with a top WR at 10 -or- the best available T. If it goes that way, it will be a real tough call. If the top lineman are gone and the top WRs are still there, it will make his decision a bit easier.

Fans (and probably the HC) all pull for fire power to WIN NOW!!! While a good GM will be looking 2-3 years down the road. There's always a disconnect of sorts. Sometimes the stars align, sometimes they don't. We won't be picking this high again, so JD needs to really get a player who transforms the team and probably won't be available in later rounds, this draft of ever. That means QB, Edge, or LT territory.  To me anyways!

[HighPitch]

Guys, no joke, ive mocked with that pfn simulator maybe over 1000 times in the last few weeks. Seriously like 10 + times a day forever. 
 

Every draft is a dream scenario. The constant trade offers are crazy. I think one time i had a dozen players drafted in the top 100.

its not going down like that! 
 

try the pff simulator. Very good but more realistic but also less fun

[Warfish]

35 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

Guys, no joke, ive mocked with that pfn simulator maybe over 1000 times in the last few weeks. Seriously like 10 + times a day forever. 
 

Every draft is a dream scenario. The constant trade offers are crazy. I think one time i had a dozen players drafted in the top 100.

its not going down like that! 
 

try the pff simulator. Very good but more realistic but also less fun

Lol, no doubt, trade AI is looooooool in that simulator.  Why I never do trades, which at least keeps it sorta realistic (vaguely).

Took a swing at the PFF Site ( I like it, it does feel more real but less fun, lol!)

 

[Paradis]

Not my choices, but i could stomach the whole thing outside of Breece Hall -- zero chance getting me on board with paying the #38 on overhyped back. You're paying an inflated price. You can get backs for half the price with nearly if not more talent imo

[HighPitch]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Lol, no doubt, trade AI is looooooool in that simulator.  Why I never do trades, which at least keeps it sorta realistic (vaguely).

Took a swing at the PFF Site ( I like it, it does feel more real but less fun, lol!)

 

I like it. I like 2 edges and wr Doubs. Hes like 6 3 210

[Integrity28]

We should create a thread where everyone posts their mock draft.

[naturalscience]

9 hours ago, PepPep said:

I would have gone in a slightly different direction BUT I have no issue with this draft. kudos.

One thing that I would have loved to address at some point is OT...but what can ya do? 

Pretty much exactly what I was gonna say. Would like to see the tackle but could do a lot worse.

This year's draft just seems absolutely wide open.

[The Crusher]

11 hours ago, Warfish said:

Yes, this is using the horribly unreliable Mock Draft Simulator, but it's a good way to display the kind of thinking I have about this draft cycle.

Note:  No Trades here, because this simulators trade AI is just loldumb, you could end up with all 32 1'sts in 2023 if you know how to play the AI, lol.  So I just went strait as-in on picks, no trades.

As always, I am more about the position than the player, for any name on here, I could be convinced another X is a better X than the one I might have picked (even for Wilson, who I love as a prospect).

Ultimately, as with any simulator, you pick the players that the simulation gives you at your picks, based on your priorities, prospect value, etc.

This one is a good simulation of what I think are our needs and priorities, and how best to fill as many of them as possible with the best possible prospects.

Note:  Like the Simulator, I too think the top two Edges will be gone by pick #4, I didn't farm the Simulator to get an interation when they fell just so I could say "we get Thibs!".  

Fire Retardent Suit on, flame away!

This draft is very Warfishy. 

[JetBlue]

11 hours ago, varjet said:

Great mock.  What S was available at 35?  I think we have enough EDGE for 2022 but if Joyner goes down this team is toast.  

Exactly.  I would have gone with a Safety if top one was available.  Also would have passed on McBride, there are way too many good TEs in this draft.   Ruggert, Kolar, Ferguson, Turner, Woods, Likely, to name just a few.  I love the Breece Hall pick; him or Kenny Walker would make me a very happy man.   I'm nervous about the Walker pick at 4.  I know he played on a loaded Georgia DL but at 4, I really need too see more on the field production.  Overall can't complain too much if that is how things fell. 

[Jethead]

Agree Zach is top priority.  I like Wilson too. Let's take him at 4. My sleeper is Jordan Davis at 10. Edge with pick 1 in rd 2, Mafe or Ebitike. S or LB with the other 2nd rounder. TE in rd 3. Big RB and developmental C in rd 4.

[Green Ghost]

22 hours ago, Warfish said:

On the Walker vs. Thibs vs. Johnson question, to be clear I don't have a real educated preference, because I honestly have focused on Offensive talent this draft cycle.

Thibs is almost always taken in the simulator before pick #4.  He's probably my preference at the #4 pick if he drops any, just from the sources I read and the word here at JN.

Walker vs. Johnson, as I said, I think I could be convinced either way by people who have done more work scouting these two guys specifically. 

Edge is a vital need, so even if the top 2 are in fact gone, I still take a swing at one of the two who seem to be just behind Thibs and Hutch (who likely goes #1 overall, and isn't in the picture).

I like this draft because it’s easy to see there is a plan behind it. Good job.

Small quibbles? I don’t see McBride being there at where you have him. It would be great if he was though.

I’d also prefer taking Gardener at #4, only because  I’m not sold on Walker, but that’s just my gut, I see the argument for him. I’m no expert on ER evaluations anyway, so what do I know?