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Zach Wilson - Breakout Candidate (Fantasy Perspective)


Tranquilo
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Jeez. That’s a tough read. Here’s my cliff notes version

Why buy Zach Wilson?

- College Production is more predictive than Rookie season production and Zach Wilson was an elite prospect coming out of college.

- Zach Wilson’s rookie production wasn’t as awful as we think if you look at his clean pocket PFF grade which is the most predictive metric year to year.

- Relatively to other young QBs, Zach Wilson is cheap from a Fantasy perspective. His stock took the type of hit that most QBs take after a poor 2nd year.

 

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2 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Jeez. That’s a tough read. Here’s my cliff notes version

Why buy Zach Wilson?

- College Production is more predictive than Rookie season production and Zach Wilson was an elite prospect coming out of college.

- Zach Wilson’s rookie production wasn’t as awful as we think if you look at his clean pocket PFF grade which is the most predictive metric year to year.

- Relatively to other young QBs, Zach Wilson is cheap from a Fantasy perspective. His stock took the type of hit that most QBs take after a poor 2nd year.

 

Gonna add this to the OG post. Thanks.

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The problem with judging a QB's ability in the fantasy world is that fantasy production does not necessarily equate to actual success, especially at the QB position.

Just look at Jalen Hurts' production from a fantasy football perspective last year.

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1 minute ago, IndianaJet said:

The problem with judging a QB's ability in the fantasy world is that fantasy production does not necessarily equate to actual success, especially at the QB position.

Just look at Jalen Hurts' production from a fantasy football perspective last year.

True. It's just one facet of the larger picture.

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54 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Jeez. That’s a tough read. Here’s my cliff notes version

Why buy Zach Wilson?

- College Production is more predictive than Rookie season production and Zach Wilson was an elite prospect coming out of college.

- Zach Wilson’s rookie production wasn’t as awful as we think if you look at his clean pocket PFF grade which is the most predictive metric year to year.

- Relatively to other young QBs, Zach Wilson is cheap from a Fantasy perspective. His stock took the type of hit that most QBs take after a poor 2nd year.

 

Good summary

I always take this stuff with a grain of salt, but the argument is reasonable. 

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1 hour ago, GreenFish said:

Jeez. That’s a tough read. Here’s my cliff notes version

Why buy Zach Wilson?

- College Production is more predictive than Rookie season production and Zach Wilson was an elite prospect coming out of college.

- Zach Wilson’s rookie production wasn’t as awful as we think if you look at his clean pocket PFF grade which is the most predictive metric year to year.

- Relatively to other young QBs, Zach Wilson is cheap from a Fantasy perspective. His stock took the type of hit that most QBs take after a poor 2nd year.

 

And he offers barely (if any) evidence to support these theories. 

 

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2 minutes ago, maury77 said:

And he offers barely (if any) evidence to support these theories. 

 

Regarding the first two bolded points - I have seen evidence for both posted on the interwebs. 

There was a pretty detailed analysis floating around that got brought up on this forum awhile back (maybe from football outsiders?) which suggested that rookie QB performance is a poor predictor of future success or failure (this also jives with my own perception). And the PFF thing has been posted here before, as well. 

I can't comment on the last one. I don't play fantasy. 

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

I'll buy Zach Wilson because I always buy Jets players for my fantasy football team.

It's why I always lose the league I play in, lol, too many Jets.

That's why I stopped doing fantasy football - rooted against the Jets too many times.

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5 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Ummmmm, Geno Smith just resigned with the Seahawks, for your information.

 

 

6 minutes ago, maury77 said:

And he offers barely (if any) evidence to support these theories. 

 


aY/A is the indicator. 

You guys can compare Geno's and Zach's.

It's cool if you don't care for these stats, but don't misrepresent what's being said because you want to laugh at it. Take it or leave it. 

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4 minutes ago, Sammybighead said:

"College Production is more predictive than Rookie season production and Zach Wilson was an elite prospect coming out of college."

Did I miss the alternate reality where Josh Rosen is a star and Josh Allen stinks?

Not iron clad. And either way, Rosen's aY/A wasn't elite.

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10 minutes ago, Sammybighead said:

"College Production is more predictive than Rookie season production and Zach Wilson was an elite prospect coming out of college."

Did I miss the alternate reality where Josh Rosen is a star and Josh Allen stinks?

Do yourself a favor and look up the word anecdotal 

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Zach was not close to being an elite prospect. Some pluses to his game, but many red flags. I mean, the kid had to compete to be the starting QB his senior year at BYU.
 

Lance and Fields weren’t elite prospects either. Don’t know what this guy is talking about. 

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52 minutes ago, peebag said:

That's why I stopped doing fantasy football - rooted against the Jets too many times.

I only play because my brother asks me to do so.

I hate Fantasy Football, if I were being honest.  

I cannot separate my love of the Jets in order to root, for example, for Tom Brady the Patriot just because he was on my team one year.

It's silly, and stubborn, I 100% get it, but Fantasy takes away from my Fandom, it does not add to it.

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8 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I only play because my brother asks me to do so.

I hate Fantasy Football, if I were being honest.  

I cannot separate my love of the Jets in order to root, for example, for Tom Brady the Patriot just because he was on my team one year.

It's silly, and stubborn, I 100% get it, but Fantasy takes away from my Fandom, it does not add to it.

I have been in FFL leagues for 25+ years.  One rule I have is I have almost never drafted a Patriot (since Brady started playing).  I had Josh Allen last year and that was fine.  I just don't do Pats.  I can still field a good team that way and I don't have that issue.

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