Updates from the Kayvon visit

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, bitonti said:

If the tackle is icky, I don't know maybe 2 or 3 ppg? 

It's more than zero 

He's a 2-3 ppg upgrade - even as a rookie, mind you - to a LT who gave up 1 sack all year??

lmao

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, Embrace the Suck said:

If they're swapping Fant and a rookie, and we're assuming a first round pick (perhaps the 4) then there shouldn't be too much of a drop. Particularly if the rest of the offense is performing better for instance: ZW making fast reads to WRs ready for a hot route to help slow down the rush. Or just running the ball down the other team's throat. Fant was a journeyman swing tackle until recently. Not to take anything away from the job he did, but he's also about to be a FA. The Jets are in the position to avoid that big contract at LT, and have the line stay together longer. If things look good with the rookie you tag Fant, and then you trade him. All this is assuming, big assumption admitedly , that MB is healthy and playing well at RT.

Drop? What drop? He's saying - incredibly - there's going to be an outright 2-3 ppg improvement specifically because of swapping out Fant for a rookie LT. 

[Sperm Edwards]

3 hours ago, nycdan said:

I know you know this, but I'll say it out loud for the more challenged readers.  Assuming Becton is healthy, adding an OT will do very little this season.

Adding a new, highly competent RG and two reliable TEs will do a lot to help.  One more talented WR will be the most we can hope for at this point but having the rest more healthy than last year will help also.  All together, assuming Zach continues to progress, which is the most important point, I think the offense can be at least NFL-average.  There is a lot of room for improvement baked into this offense considering that last year it was made of balsa wood.

It's absurd.

You'd think seeing the Bengals reach the superbowl - and nearly win it - with a POS OL would get people off the idea that the entire offense runs through the OL.

Our OL - last year and even more so this year - is already superior to the Bengals' line last year. What we lack/lacked are and were people doing something with it: starting WRs staying on the field, and a starting QB who gets them the ball when they are.

I get the idea that maybe the staff or FO is already mentally done with Becton, if there are other neck-up issues with him that they haven't spread to the public (with good reason). Also the only thing I recall hearing from either side regarding a Fant extension is the player complaining about it.

IMO there is too much talent up top in drafts to draft a position that's already adequately filled, over positions that are not adequately filled. Not everyone agrees philosophically, but the idea that a rookie LT is going to be the catalyst for turning this offense around is without merit.

[derp]

11 hours ago, T0mShane said:

 

My belief is that if you were picking guys based solely on the package of game tape and testing numbers, you’d probably pencil in Thibodeaux at #1 and feel pretty good about it, particularly with this class being relatively weak. I heard an interesting point this week about how, when you have a group of players ranked fairly close to each other, the big tiebreakers for everyone involved is the good ol’ “football character” factor, and teams will almost universally prioritize the player with the least chance of being a nuisance. I think Thibodeaux could probably be a really good player, but I don’t think he’d do that here

 

edit: I think your point about Karlaftis is interesting, but that goes back to what I was saying about having Thibodeaux #1 just based on watching him—he looks rare and unique just by the eye test. Karlaftis is like the opposite of that, imo. 

I guess I view the #1 pick situation differently if you're looking at tape and testing. Tape wise, Hutchinson and Walker are both better against the run and Hutchinson has better pass rushing tape for sure. Walker laps Thibodeaux in pretty much everything testing wise in addition to showing those tools on tape, just not in a pass rushing context, and having an elite national championship game performance. Hutchinson honestly probably tested better than Thibodeaux too. So tape plus testing, in my opinion, is Hutchinson and it's not close. To me, if Walker goes #1 as has been rumored recently, Douglas should make Detroit say no to 4+10 for 2+32, which favors the Jets on the chart but I could see Detroit biting on as I think 10 helps them with their needs more than it helps the Jets, and Hutchinson would be a home run.

Thibodeaux's tape kind of meshes with his testing. He's got an awesome first step and he's surprisingly strong for his size. He's I think more of the speed to power variety than the traditional bender, but he's not that big. He's a little muscular tightly wound which hampers flexibility - kind of like what I think of when I think the old school Steelers guys or maybe Khalil Mack as a positive comparison. That all said, the two most important testing things for pass rushers are three cone - which he didn't do particularly well and meshes with that flexibility thing - and vert which he ducked. And I imagine you're going to do the vert if you don't think you'll do badly. So I wouldn't say the testing is that good. The tape is fine too but Hutchinson is absolutely better. 

The point I think I was trying to make about Karlaftis is that people saw early numbers for both of those guys and expected them to take leaps in their junior year and be double digit sack guys. That didn't happen for either guy, they slipped accordingly. We see this happen all the time, I think it's just more pronounced a year like this year because the guy who disappointed as a junior isn't going #1. Honestly, he compared himself to Clowney and that's probably a solid, self aware comparison. The testing meshes, the production meshes, the play style meshes. Clowney's continued to play and teams have paid him, but I don't think NFL teams would be lining up to take Clowney #1 again.

I'd also add, and I'm probably missing who was projected in the top 5 preseason, Stingley and Hamilton. Hamilton ran super slow obviously, Stingley didn't play much last year. 

There really was no good sophomore tape on these guys because of the COVID year, so you've got a projection multiple years out based on who those guys were as freshmen when trying to figure out this draft. Especially because basically anybody who could go last year did go. Turns out, those projections maybe weren't so good - which makes sense when you're just missing a year. That's my opinion, anyway.

Off topic, been listening to the Athletic football podcast you dropped a couple weeks ago. Good find, they have some great conversations on there.

[bitonti]

53 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

He's a 2-3 ppg upgrade - even as a rookie, mind you - to a LT who gave up 1 sack all year??

lmao

It's not the pass protection that creates the upgrade it's the run blocking 

This SF/TEN system has always been built with the idea of running outside zone to set up play action deep. 

Fant is a marginal run blocker, and he's better at left tackle than at right. He's a finesse player, like a Charles Leno or a poor man's Duane Brown. Basically all Fant offers is pass blocking. 

Put together a line with Becton/Icky bookends, Laken/AVT guards and McGovern (or possibly rd2 Linderbaum at C), then yes I think the PPG goes up in a measurable way. The SF line has maulers like Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey. Alex Mack at C. The Titans line has maulers like Taylor Lewan and Saffold (who is now on BUF)

This line isn't nasty enough for JD's taste (which also explains the Trevor penning rumors) 

end of the day JD isn't going to extend Fant so he has to replace him either before this draft or the next one 

 

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

It's not the pass protection that creates the upgrade it's the run blocking 

This SF/TEN system has always been built with the idea of running outside zone to set up play action deep. 

Fant is a marginal run blocker, and he's better at left tackle than at right. He's a finesse player, like a Charles Leno or a poor man's Duane Brown. Basically all Fant offers is pass blocking. 

Put together a line with Becton/Icky bookends, Laken/AVT guards and McGovern (or possibly rd2 Linderbaum at C), then yes I think the PPG goes up in a measurable way. The SF line has maulers like Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey. The Titans line has maulers like Taylor Lewan. This line isn't nasty enough for JD's taste (which also explains the Trevor penning rumors) 

 

Yes, i think the goal this year is to flip the time of possession distortion and become a run dominant team.  I really think if ekongwu is there at 4 he’s the pick, b/c as saleh said there is not one dominant edge.  The edge rusher they can get at the end of the first round may be comparable to jj, karlaftis or thibs.  Increasingly I think wr is not addressed early.

[Dcat]

5 minutes ago, bitonti said:

It's not the pass protection that creates the upgrade it's the run blocking 

This SF/TEN system has always been built with the idea of running outside zone to set up play action deep. 

Fant is a marginal run blocker, and he's better at left tackle than at right. He's a finesse player, like a Charles Leno or a poor man's Duane Brown. Basically all Fant offers is pass blocking. 

Put together a line with Becton/Icky bookends, Laken/AVT guards and McGovern (or possibly rd2 Linderbaum at C), then yes I think the PPG goes up in a measurable way. The SF line has maulers like Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey. Alex Mack at C. The Titans line has maulers like Taylor Lewan and Saffold (who is now on BUF)

This line isn't nasty enough for JD's taste (which also explains the Trevor penning rumors) 

end of the day JD isn't going to extend Fant so he has to replace him either before this draft or the next one 

 

If we don't take ot in rd 1, I am intrigued by Tyler Smith, who is literally a raw, huge, mauler.  About as nasty as there is in this draft. 

[bitonti]

14 minutes ago, Dcat said:

If we don't take ot in rd 1, I am intrigued by Tyler Smith, who is literally a raw, huge, mauler.  About as nasty as there is in this draft. 

sure. he came in for a visit too - there are like 10 other teams with the same plan by the way

Denver for example are on the Tyler Smith in rd2-3 bandwagon 

[bitonti]

19 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Yes, i think the goal this year is to flip the time of possession distortion and become a run dominant team.  I really think if ekongwu is there at 4 he’s the pick, b/c as saleh said there is not one dominant edge.  The edge rusher they can get at the end of the first round may be comparable to jj, karlaftis or thibs.  Increasingly I think wr is not addressed early.

you had me in the first half but I could see an Ikey/London rd 1 (or whatever your favorite WR is) and find that edge later on (or not)

the defense is terrible but one edge is not going to change much about this team. 2 offensive picks might actually  make them watchable 

[genot]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It's absurd.

You'd think seeing the Bengals reach the superbowl - and nearly win it - with a POS OL would get people off the idea that the entire offense runs through the OL.

Our OL - last year and even more so this year - is already superior to the Bengals' line last year. What we lack/lacked are and were people doing something with it: starting WRs staying on the field, and a starting QB who gets them the ball when they are.

I get the idea that maybe the staff or FO is already mentally done with Becton, if there are other neck-up issues with him that they haven't spread to the public (with good reason). Also the only thing I recall hearing from either side regarding a Fant extension is the player complaining about it.

IMO there is too much talent up top in drafts to draft a position that's already adequately filled, over positions that are not adequately filled. Not everyone agrees philosophically, but the idea that a rookie LT is going to be the catalyst for turning this offense around is without merit.

You're being too diplomatic.  It's 

[mrcoops]

32 minutes ago, Dcat said:

If we don't take ot in rd 1, I am intrigued by Tyler Smith, who is literally a raw, huge, mauler.  About as nasty as there is in this draft. 

Very intrigued by him. A bit like Penning, but can likely be had a round or more later.

[jetstream23]

5 hours ago, TheClashFan said:

Nearly totally agree (I think McDermott and Edoga are worse than you do).  I do think JD should wait and grab an OT in the 2nd, but no later.  There's no way that either Fant or Becton starts all 17 games each.  The Jets are going to need a 3rd guy who will likely start at least several games, and they definitely need a good young developmental OT.  They can get both by grabbing one in the 2nd round.  The later he waits, the more likely he drafts a dud.

If I were JD I'd draft an OT in the 2nd and also try to grab a one year vet stopgap as well.  Fant misses a couple of games every year and Becton is a huge risk...what if he gets hurt early on again?

 

Yup.  That's what I can't understand around here.  We have lots of fans who are disgusted by the idea of taking another OT early in the Draft (Rounds 1 or 2).  The rationale seems to simply be that JD has used 1st rounders the past two years on OL with Becton, AVT so he shouldn't do it again.  That makes zero sense.  I could argue that we've used 2nd rounders on WR the past two years as well, and that the second biggest FA contract was given out to WR Corey Davis last year.  Does that mean we should ignore WR just because we've already hit it hard with both Draft and FA resources the past two years?  Nope.

It would be appalling if the Jets rolled into the season with Becton, Fant, Edoga and McDermott and then Becton continued his average of playing in only 7 games per season as he's done over his first two years.  We'd watch Zach crumble, the offense be dysfunctional again, and fans would be like, "Geez, didn't we just have 4 Draft picks in the Top 38 and we didn't get an OT?  How could the Jets take such a gamble at one of the most critical positions to helping the offense function in both the rushing and passing game?"

[#27TheDominator]

14 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

You could be right, however Edoga played less than McDermott in 2021.  Here's what I have from Pro Football Reference for 2021....

Edoga appeared in 5 games for the Jets (that means a minimum of 1 snap in 5 different games). He didn't start any.

Conor McDermott appeared in 6 games, he started 3 of them.

Morgan Moses appeared in 17 games, starting 16.

Fant appeared in 15 games, starting all 15 of them.

Becton started 1 game.

 

My point remains the same, the Jets are on shaky ground going into the 2022 season relying on only Becton and Fant as truly capable OTs.  Odds are that McDermott and Edoga will see more playing time than we want, especially with Moses gone.  They're not horrible backups but we don't want them playing more than a game or two.  We all saw Week 18 vs Buffalo when the Jets gave up 9 sacks.

For 2023, it only gets worse.  Becton is slated to be the only starting-caliber OT under contract as 2022 is Fant's last season unless the Jets extend him this Summer.

Without drafting an OT this year Joe Douglas has a shaky depth chart for 2022, and he has a glaring hole in 2023 in at least one starting OT spot.  This assumes Becton has a healthy and successful 2022 season which is not a given.  Out of 33 career games Becton has played in only 14 of them, and this is during what should be the healthiest and youngest 2 years of his career.

As it stands now, in 10 months JD would be heading into Free Agency needing to sign a starting OT.  I'll stick to my belief that the Jets need to Draft an OT within their first 4 picks this year (4, 10, 35, 38).

 

I didn't mean to dispute your point.  I think it probably bolstered it.  Edoga was the #4 tackle.  He hurt his knee in preseason and was scoped.  He came back, played a few games and ended up on IR in November.  He came back in December and took over when Fant went down against the Bucs the way he had against the Bengals before he ended up IR again.  He hurt his ankle that week in practice and was done after a couple of snaps against the Bills.   Becton started 1 game,  Moses started 16, Fant started 15, and McDermott started 3 - that means one of McDermott's starts was probably as a blocker or extra TE.

They have to add  a T, but I don't know how early it will be.  They don't need an immediate starter, but they need. depth  I think that is the purpose of free agency.  Fill the holes so that you can draft the best guys available.  They can go into the season with what they have, or add somebody between now and the season, so I don't think it has to be a 1st or 2nd.  OTOH, if they have a guy they love, like they supposedly love Ekonwu, I don't see what is stopping them.

[Greensleeves]

4 hours ago, GangGreen Machine said:

Glad you asked. I’m no expert but this is the way I see it.
Rookie edges don’t contribute as much as Offensive lineman their rookie years IMO. don’t ask me for stats to back that up, I don’t have any, just eyeball test. 

 Lawson is coming back. Our offensive system relies on strong run game, Fant is weak in that dept. 

Saleh was hired as a defensive guru who can coach up guys and shouldn’t need a plethora of premium picks and FA’s to succeed.

Because ZW can use all the help he can get to start putting up W’s for this team (move the needle). It’s ZW or bust for this regime. 

All sounds like a good explanation to me! I feel like we're going to go WR in the first round (10) and a later round OT is fine. We just signed an All Pro Guard and two tight ends to help Zach. Becton will be firing on all cylinders. I think the only position on the line that moves the needle is at center right now. Maybe we'll grab Linderbaum in the second round.

[GangGreen Machine]

2 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

All sounds like a good explanation to me! I feel like we're going to go WR in the first round (10) and a later round OT is fine. We just signed an All Pro Guard and two tight ends to help Zach. Becton will be firing on all cylinders. I think the only position on the line that moves the needle is at center right now. Maybe we'll grab Linderbaum in the second round.

Id be down with that. 

[Augustiniak]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

you had me in the first half but I could see an Ikey/London rd 1 (or whatever your favorite WR is) and find that edge later on (or not)

the defense is terrible but one edge is not going to change much about this team. 2 offensive picks might actually  make them watchable 

I agree that 2 offensive picks would make them more watchable.  I just don’t think it’s a possibility.  The only caveat would be, if they went ekongwu at 4, an edge at 10 (or in a trade back in the 12-15 range) and then a wr they liked slipped far enough and they traded multiple picks to get back into the bottom of round 1 to grab a wr. But i do not see an OL/wr combo at 4 and 10.  I do think they’re taking ekongwu or thibs at 4, with thibs the preferred choice.  If neither is there, that’s what i fear, that they could derail the draft by taking gardener.

[bitonti]

4 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I agree that 2 offensive picks would make them more watchable.  I just don’t think it’s a possibility.  The only caveat would be, if they went ekongwu at 4, an edge at 10 (or in a trade back in the 12-15 range) and then a wr they liked slipped far enough and they traded multiple picks to get back into the bottom of round 1 to grab a wr. But i do not see an OL/wr combo at 4 and 10.  I do think they’re taking ekongwu or thibs at 4, with thibs the preferred choice.  If neither is there, that’s what i fear, that they could derail the draft by taking gardener.

Gardner at 4 is pure smoke. They just don't prioritize CBs that way 

Maybe I'm wrong on this but the edge depth at 35/38 might be better than the WR/OL depth. They are saying like 7 WR in rd 1 because of how expensive WR have become 

the Jets can't pass on WR at 4 and 10 and expect to get an instant impact guy at 35 

 

 

[Augustiniak]

5 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Gardner at 4 is pure smoke. They just don't prioritize CBs that way 

Maybe I'm wrong on this but the edge depth at 35/38 might be better than the WR/OL depth. They are saying like 7 WR in rd 1 because of how expensive WR have become 

the Jets can't pass on WR at 4 and 10 and expect to get an instant impact guy at 35 

 

 

I think you’re right about the depth relativities.  I’ve read that the wrs at the top are pretty good, not great, but that there’s not great depth so if you want a good one you need to jump on it early.  

[T0mShane]

3 hours ago, derp said:

I guess I view the #1 pick situation differently if you're looking at tape and testing. Tape wise, Hutchinson and Walker are both better against the run and Hutchinson has better pass rushing tape for sure. Walker laps Thibodeaux in pretty much everything testing wise in addition to showing those tools on tape, just not in a pass rushing context, and having an elite national championship game performance. Hutchinson honestly probably tested better than Thibodeaux too. So tape plus testing, in my opinion, is Hutchinson and it's not close. To me, if Walker goes #1 as has been rumored recently, Douglas should make Detroit say no to 4+10 for 2+32, which favors the Jets on the chart but I could see Detroit biting on as I think 10 helps them with their needs more than it helps the Jets, and Hutchinson would be a home run.

Thibodeaux's tape kind of meshes with his testing. He's got an awesome first step and he's surprisingly strong for his size. He's I think more of the speed to power variety than the traditional bender, but he's not that big. He's a little muscular tightly wound which hampers flexibility - kind of like what I think of when I think the old school Steelers guys or maybe Khalil Mack as a positive comparison. That all said, the two most important testing things for pass rushers are three cone - which he didn't do particularly well and meshes with that flexibility thing - and vert which he ducked. And I imagine you're going to do the vert if you don't think you'll do badly. So I wouldn't say the testing is that good. The tape is fine too but Hutchinson is absolutely better. 

The point I think I was trying to make about Karlaftis is that people saw early numbers for both of those guys and expected them to take leaps in their junior year and be double digit sack guys. That didn't happen for either guy, they slipped accordingly. We see this happen all the time, I think it's just more pronounced a year like this year because the guy who disappointed as a junior isn't going #1. Honestly, he compared himself to Clowney and that's probably a solid, self aware comparison. The testing meshes, the production meshes, the play style meshes. Clowney's continued to play and teams have paid him, but I don't think NFL teams would be lining up to take Clowney #1 again.

I'd also add, and I'm probably missing who was projected in the top 5 preseason, Stingley and Hamilton. Hamilton ran super slow obviously, Stingley didn't play much last year. 

There really was no good sophomore tape on these guys because of the COVID year, so you've got a projection multiple years out based on who those guys were as freshmen when trying to figure out this draft. Especially because basically anybody who could go last year did go. Turns out, those projections maybe weren't so good - which makes sense when you're just missing a year. That's my opinion, anyway.

Off topic, been listening to the Athletic football podcast you dropped a couple weeks ago. Good find, they have some great conversations on there.

I think I downgrade Hutchinson a bit, ironically (stupidly?), because I see him as the perfect 2022 Jets draft pick—the scrappy self-starter who goes on to average eight or nine sacks a year and is a fine, fine player who probably never reaches elite status. It’s my bias toward that Big 10 meathead rush end, even though we have a bunch of examples that counter that perception (Bosas, etc). I heard an interesting stat on Karlaftis, btw. His win rate is higher that both Hutchinson and Thibodeaux, and his testing was pretty good, but (as the PFF guy put it) we downgrade power rushers because they’re not aesthetically pleasing and don’t win in ways that we normally associate with the elite pass rushers (which explains why I’d overrate Thibodeaux from that perspective). The other guy who has crazy win rates but nobody talks about is Kingsley Engbare. Here’s an interesting article on how those numbers line up with the hype over Walker. 
 

https://www.fieldgulls.com/platform/amp/2022/4/19/23025002/nfl-draft-edge-pass-rush-win-rate-travon-walker-seattle-seahawks-aidan-hutchinson-alex-wright

 

[bitonti]

8 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

I think you’re right about the depth relativities.  I’ve read that the wrs at the top are pretty good, not great, but that there’s not great depth so if you want a good one you need to jump on it early.  

they screwed themselves by not getting a vet WR. All the free agent moves they made give them options. At edge, Jacob Martin, Lawson coming back, at TE the two new vets are fine, DJ Reed at corner, Whitehead at Safety. These are all good moves.

but the WR room got worse. It's literally the same room minus Crowder and Cole. because they didn't get a WR all offseason they almost have to go WR early in the draft. 

[Matt39]

6 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I think I downgrade Hutchinson a bit, ironically (stupidly?), because I see him as the perfect 2022 Jets draft pick—the scrappy self-starter who goes on to average eight or nine sacks a year and is a fine, fine player who probably never reaches elite status. It’s my bias toward that Big 10 meathead rush end, even though we have a bunch of examples that counter that perception (Bosas, etc). I heard an interesting stat on Karlaftis, btw. His win rate is higher that both Hutchinson and Thibodeaux, and his testing was pretty good, but (as the PFF guy put it) we downgrade power rushers because they’re not aesthetically pleasing and don’t win in ways that we normally associate with the elite pass rushers (which explains why I’d overrate Thibodeaux from that perspective). The other guy who has crazy win rates but nobody talks about is Kingsley Engbare. Here’s an interesting article on how those numbers line up with the hype over Walker. 
 

https://www.fieldgulls.com/platform/amp/2022/4/19/23025002/nfl-draft-edge-pass-rush-win-rate-travon-walker-seattle-seahawks-aidan-hutchinson-alex-wright

 

Karlaftis at 4 and you're getting a good football player who will get some sacks and could potentially be a Justin Houston type. The sack production is concerning obviously and I've talked myself into this bc I'm pretty confident KT is a bust and a CB or OT does nothing right now.

[Greensleeves]

8 minutes ago, bitonti said:

they screwed themselves by not getting a vet WR. All the free agent moves they made give them options. At edge, Jacob Martin, Lawson coming back, at TE the two new vets are fine, DJ Reed at corner, Whitehead at Safety. These are all good moves.

but the WR room got worse. It's literally the same room minus Crowder and Cole. because they didn't get a WR all offseason they almost have to go WR early in the draft. 

We have 4 premium picks - no real issue to grab a top receiver with one of them.

[bitonti]

from Yahoo

Quote

 

"He's good, he's not great" 

Despite the generational talent qualities that Thibodeaux possesses, the narrative that he may not be 100% bought-in on football, or that he often takes plays off is certainly winning out at the moment. Recently, The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman put out his first mock draft of the year where he listed Thibodeaux at No. 8, going to the Atlanta Falcons where he would join former Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota.

However, the twist on this mock draft was that Feldman got “coaching intel” from a host of college coaches, NFL scouts, and football analysts. What they had to say about Thibodeaux was incredibly revealing, and will likely be frustrating for Duck fans to read. Here’s some of what they had to say:

“When he wants to go, he can really go. He’s got good speed-to-power and he has excellent get-off, but he cannot play in space at an elite NFL level. I don’t think he’s a 3-4 outside linebacker. He’s more of a 4-3 DE that can, at times, drop. He doesn’t have a big counter game as a rusher. He’s gonna have to develop that.”

“He’s a high-waisted long guy, and his get-off is elite. Going into the game, you really worried about that, that he was gonna beat us off the ball.”

“There’s talent there, but what are you getting? He plays in spurts. He’s got it in his body — although there’s a little bit of stiffness in there. It’s not like he’s got an amazing body. He’s got a good first step for a 250-pound guy. I’d worry about his interests off the field. In a weird way, he reminds me of (Josh) Rosen. I think they’re both really good football players, and if they really concentrated on football, they’d be really good at it. But you listen to Thibodeaux talk and you wonder about his mindset. I think whatever his perception of being an NFL guy is going to be totally different to what it actually is.”

He’s a generational talent, freaky on film. He was the best D-lineman in the Pac-12 since Vita Vea. I didn’t think he was consistent with effort. He didn’t have much success early in our game, and he kinda shut it down.

“I don’t see it, man. He’s good. He’s not great. He was a non-factor in so many games. He’s an independent contractor. His first step is unbelievable. You just wonder, how important is football to him?”

https://sports.yahoo.com/good-not-great-college-coaches-161145316.html

 

I can't stress how much I want the Jets to pass on this player

they can literally draft anyone else and I'll be thrilled 

 

[T0mShane]

7 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Karlaftis at 4 and you're getting a good football player who will get some sacks and could potentially be a Justin Houston type. The sack production is concerning obviously and I've talked myself into this bc I'm pretty confident KT is a bust and a CB or OT does nothing right now.

I’ve reached a point where I think Thibodeaux will be alright if he ends up in a winning program that doesn’t put any pressure on him to do much other than chase QBs, but if he comes here it’ll be James Harden playing on a lottery team. 

[derp]

13 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I think I downgrade Hutchinson a bit, ironically (stupidly?), because I see him as the perfect 2022 Jets draft pick—the scrappy self-starter who goes on to average eight or nine sacks a year and is a fine, fine player who probably never reaches elite status. It’s my bias toward that Big 10 meathead rush end, even though we have a bunch of examples that counter that perception (Bosas, etc). I heard an interesting stat on Karlaftis, btw. His win rate is higher that both Hutchinson and Thibodeaux, and his testing was pretty good, but (as the PFF guy put it) we downgrade power rushers because they’re not aesthetically pleasing and don’t win in ways that we normally associate with the elite pass rushers (which explains why I’d overrate Thibodeaux from that perspective). The other guy who has crazy win rates but nobody talks about is Kingsley Engbare. Here’s an interesting article on how those numbers line up with the hype over Walker. 
 

https://www.fieldgulls.com/platform/amp/2022/4/19/23025002/nfl-draft-edge-pass-rush-win-rate-travon-walker-seattle-seahawks-aidan-hutchinson-alex-wright

 

Yeah, I think kind of like you got at there are a bunch of examples counter to the Big Ten perception.

I think Karlaftis gets downgraded in part for raw stats but I’m curious what the Jets think of him because they focus on win rate at the pro level at least. Familiar with Enagbare’s win rate too.

Walker’s a little unique because he’s got such crazy physical tools and didn’t produce and I think freaky guys without pressures are outliers - there aren’t a lot of comparable cases. Oweh is close to that among the guys on that list, I’m curious where older guys like Danielle Hunter, Ziggy Ansah would be. I think athleticism predicts translation better than production for college guys but again, I don’t think that level of athleticism without production really happens too often. One way or another Walker will be used as an example going forward. It’s a definite flag though and makes him a tough read. Also a flag for Jermaine Johnson.

[T0mShane]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

from Yahoo

I can't stress how much I want the Jets to pass on this player

they can literally draft anyone else and I'll be thrilled 

 

I’m trying to imagine Saleh attempting to motivate Thibodeaux and it makes my eye twitch. 

[bitonti]

3 minutes ago, Greensleeves said:

We have 4 premium picks - no real issue to grab a top receiver with one of them.

Zach needs help now. They are not necessarily going to get instant impact from a Rd 2 WR, even a good one 

[Augustiniak]

11 minutes ago, bitonti said:

they screwed themselves by not getting a vet WR. All the free agent moves they made give them options. At edge, Jacob Martin, Lawson coming back, at TE the two new vets are fine, DJ Reed at corner, Whitehead at Safety. These are all good moves.

but the WR room got worse. It's literally the same room minus Crowder and Cole. because they didn't get a WR all offseason they almost have to go WR early in the draft. 

Every team knows the jets are in the market for a wr, and early.  It will be interesting to see what douglas does, b/c there’s a lot of debate about how to rank the top 10 or so.  If douglas has a guy like wilson at 5 or 6, would he have the balls to just take him at 4 and see who slips to 10?  Truth i doubt it.  I have a feeling like you they love london and would love to pair him with the shorter wrs.  

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

I’m trying to imagine Saleh attempting to motivate Thibodeaux and it makes my eye twitch. 

I think you just have to line him up opposite becton and tell him to sack the guy in the red pinney.

[T0mShane]

2 minutes ago, derp said:

Yeah, I think kind of like you got at there are a bunch of examples counter to the Big Ten perception.

I think Karlaftis gets downgraded in part for raw stats but I’m curious what the Jets think of him because they focus on win rate at the pro level at least. Familiar with Enagbare’s win rate too.

Walker’s a little unique because he’s got such crazy physical tools and didn’t produce and I think freaky guys without pressures are outliers - there aren’t a lot of comparable cases. Oweh is close to that among the guys on that list, I’m curious where older guys like Danielle Hunter, Ziggy Ansah would be. I think athleticism predicts translation better than production for college guys but again, I don’t think that level of athleticism without production really happens too often. One way or another Walker will be used as an example going forward. It’s a definite flag though and makes him a tough read. Also a flag for Jermaine Johnson.

I would not mind the Walker pick at all because I think the Jets would just hand him JFM’s role and he’d probably be pretty good at that. I don’t feel like Walker would have to get twelve sacks per year to end up being considered a successful pick, in other words, but if he does, everyone looks like geniuses. 

[bitonti]

5 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

  I have a feeling like you they love london and would love to pair him with the shorter wrs.  

there's this narrative that the Jets are leak proof under JD it's absolute BS

everyone and their grandma knew the Jets were taking Zach Wilson in January 

they are in love with London (and everyone with sources knows it) 

the only question is can JD extract some kind of value (like getting him at 10 instead of 4) 

[bitonti]

3 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I would not mind the Walker pick at all because I think the Jets would just hand him JFM’s role and he’d probably be pretty good at that. I don’t feel like Walker would have to get twelve sacks per year to end up being considered a successful pick, in other words, but if he does, everyone looks like geniuses. 

when a dude has that kind of workout it's kind of hard to hate the pick 

He's got all-pro type of profile he just needs to put it together a little more

still, he really beat the sh*t out of Evan Neal in the Natty 

[Augustiniak]

1 minute ago, bitonti said:

there's this narrative that the Jets are leak proof under JD it's absolute BS

everyone and their grandma knew the Jets were taking Zach Wilson in January 

they are in love with London (and everyone with sources knows it) 

the only question is can JD extract some kind of value (like getting him at 10 instead of 4) 

I’m not sure where it was read or what sources reported it but i buy it.  London’s size and skills are a nice fit on the jets, but i fear this time douglas may ignore the pure measurables by taking him.  I doubt they can trade out of 10 to get him, london should be a nice big target and a chain mover along with those TEs.  I do think they’re going to take thibs though.  I think if he’s on the board that’s a nice lock.

[Waka Flocka Flacco]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

I would not mind the Walker pick at all because I think the Jets would just hand him JFM’s role and he’d probably be pretty good at that.

JFM is pretty good at it. With Walker it's more like, well, he's gotta be better there than he would be at LEO. Why is Becton a reason not to take a tackle if JFM isn't a reason not to take a 5tech?

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, bitonti said:

there's this narrative that the Jets are leak proof under JD it's absolute BS

everyone and their grandma knew the Jets were taking Zach Wilson in January 

they are in love with London (and everyone with sources knows it) 

the only question is can JD extract some kind of value (like getting him at 10 instead of 4) 

1) With respect to the boded, I could be wrong, but I thought the only reason people knew that the Jets were taking Wilson is because BYU people (e.g. Steve Young) leaked what the Jets were telling Zach's family. I don't think that stuff came from the Jets. The beat reporters seemed to be guessing before that. In terms of being "leak proof," I don't think any organization is leak proof, but I did find it sort of amazing that the first report of the Sam Darnold trade didn't come out until it was filed with the league office. 

2) Have you personally heard that the Jets love London? I have seen a lot of media folks link the Jets to Williams.