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Odds of Icky at 4 just increased dramatically


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46 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

It's funny, this has been the narrative all along, and I've looked for confirmation, but I couldn't find it last year, and I can't find it now.

All I've found are articles stating he was around 360 in 2021, an ESPN article saying he showed up at "his target weight", an article mentioning Becton admitted to being 370 his rookie year (which shows he did in fact get in shape in 2021 if he was at 360), and there was that video last July that showed him looking visibly leaner.

The only negative report was from Lafleur who said he was "dealing with things" that everyone just assumed meant weight issues, even though Saleh disputed that.

I'm not saying that the dude doesn't have a history weight issues, but I'm just not seeing any evidence to suggest that he showed up to camp last year out of shape.

Saying he showed up out of shape is the hopeful explanation as to why he couldn’t block anyone last summer.

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1 hour ago, derp said:

Relative to a rookie? I'd trust Darryl Williams, Riley Reiff, or old friend Brandon Shell more, and if they're open to flipping sides guys like Duane Brown and Eric Fisher are available as well. All those guys are established pros and besides Brown are in their late 20's or early 30's. I'm sure they want a starting job bug I'm sure Morgan Moses did too last year. And the resource allocation is a huge factor.

I still think the way you have Saleh justifying cost is off. Anyone at 4 costs more than Becton returns. I think Saleh is smarter than that. I could see him really liking Ekwonu as a person but think he also understands the importance of pass protection and am sure he saw the value of a steady guy in Morgan Moses last year.

And we Douglas explicitly said he noticed how the Super Bowl teams were built early in the offseason. After leaks the last few years I cannot help but really, really hope that this is a smokescreen because it's bad resource allocation, shows a lack of ability to learn and adjust, and would be another leak which we really shouldn't see the team have.

We also have @Zachtomims47 consistently telling us that Ekwonu doesn't top their tackle board despite prevailing opinion. Maybe he's wrong but I don't think he is. In my opinion the most likely tackle scenario by a mile is Charles Cross at 10. Wouldn't be surprised if he's their top guy and at 10 maybe they take him and figure it out. Even that I don't think would be good but I could see it.

fwiw my thought—in the scenario where they opt to trade Becton—is that Becton is persona non grata inside the building right now and Saleh would want to move on from him, which isn’t uncommon with new coaches trying to establish control of a locker room. As such, he has no value to the team and he’d just represent whatever return you get for him in a trade. That’s one piece. Then it’s the piece where you replace him, which is where I could see Douglas possibly spending another first on a guy he likes, whomever that may be. Fwiw, I’m agnostic on who they pick and where. I’ve saturated my brain with so much draft content the past few weeks that I’m convinced that everybody sucks. 

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2 hours ago, doitny said:

Eric Fisher. he wants 8 mil and to start. so if you wanted to move on from Becton that is an option. i personally dont want to move on from Becton after just 2 years. his 1st year was pretty good.

if JD drafts Ekonwu and pushes Edge or WR till 35 and the position he passed on has a guy that plays really well and we win 5-6 games JD is fired. he cant used a mulligan to replace his 1st rd pick with a 1st rd pick from just 2 years ago.

and your not getting a draft hall for him. all the red flags that we see so do other teams. 

Fisher would be fine, but you’re talking about a guy who gave up 40+ pressures and seven sacks for a team that ran the ball 500 times. You could live with a high-end rookie performing in that range. And Douglas will be in more trouble if Becton continues to be an injured hot mess who helps tank Zach Wilson’s development. You want to gamble the 2022 season on Becton staying healthy and motivated? 

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13 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

As I said much earlier in the thread, it's not the player missing the voluntary workout that I think is a bad look.  It's the player who's availability, durability, fitness, talent, and perhaps most of all, motivation are all a big question mark right now.  And, calling them question marks is probably generous.

If Becton were clearly, to use Saleh's term, a "guy who loves ball" and not one "who loves what ball can do for them," this wouldn't even be a blip.  But come on, if before yesterday I were to say, "name the one player most likely to skip voluntary workouts," be honest, who would you have named?

I won't disagree that there are questions about Becton. I have those questions, too. But, it's April. I'll revisit my stance in July.

On the bold, honestly, I don't know. I don't give that much thought to the players regarding voluntary workouts. When I see Becton and people questioning his motivation and love of ball, I immediately think back to the draft night and his reaction. Dude was crying and looked so pumped. "Let's go! Let's go! I'm ready coach," I remember him saying.

I know actions speak louder than words, though, so let's look at them:

1. Showing up to his first camp overweight, by his own admission. (Although, that didn't seem to hurt his performance much, and if it did, and he can reach an even higher level, then boy look out.)

2. Ballooning up to 380 by the end of the 2020 season. This has a lot to do with his injury and being limited in his abiility to work out. Being dejected could've also played a role and hurt his motivation which led to weight gain. That we can maybe chalk up to immaturity, which is fixable.

3. People complain about him pulling himself out of games over his injury, but I have a unique perspective since I had the same injury. I was able to rehab it with PT some and was still able to work (a physical job) but I was limited, and just when it was feeling close to 100%, BOOM I tweaked it on the job and it got worse. Had to get the surgery.

4. Then there was the foot injury that held him out of last year's OTA's (with varying opinions of whether it was caused by weight or not). This missed time probably contributed to his TC struggles with the scheme change.

5. Then there's the narrative that he showed up to camp last year out of shape, but, as I posted earlier in the thread, I can't find a single article that supports this, and by all accounts, he actually showed up in shape DESPITE the foot injury.

6. Lastly, you have his injury in Week 1, through no fault of his own conditioning. Where I started to get concerned was when the coaches started to air their frustration about his inability to come back mid-season. Now, I'm not a doctor and have no inside knowledge on the particulars of his injury, so I can't speak on when he should've been able to come back (though that never stops anyone else). Let's also not act like this is the first time when team doctors disagree with a player on their recovery time. Hard to say who is right. I do remember seeing that picture that showed he was probably overweight again, due to his inability to exercise and perhaps some depression-induced de-motivation. This would be two years in a row, and I get that that's concerning. That's why I wanted Moses back.

To end this unintentionally long post, I'll say that I totally get the concerns over his ability to get on the field, even though I think some of it is overblown. At best, he's a tremendously talented player who has had some unfortunate injuries and setbacks, and at worst he has some immaturity problems, which are 100% fixable. But I'm not going to hit the panic button over missed voluntary workouts in April. To me, the make or break time will be OTA's, TC, and this season.

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8 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

fwiw my thought—in the scenario where they opt to trade Becton—is that Becton is persona non grata inside the building right now and Saleh would want to move on from him, which isn’t uncommon with new coaches trying to establish control of a locker room. As such, he has no value to the team and he’d just represent whatever return you get for him in a trade. That’s one piece. Then it’s the piece where you replace him, which is where I could see Douglas possibly spending another first on a guy he likes, whomever that may be. Fwiw, I’m agnostic on who they pick and where. I’ve saturated my brain with so much draft content the past few weeks that I’m convinced that everybody sucks. 

Ultimately i don’t think they’re going to draft ekongwu and keep becton.  So if the jets draft ekongwu early Thursday i think becton will be gone shortly thereafter, even if it’s for 2023 picks.  While I can see mims turning it around and contributing i just don’t see it with becton.  

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29 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Saying he showed up out of shape is the hopeful explanation as to why he couldn’t block anyone last summer.

How is that more hopeful when you're using it to build this narrative against him? lol

The dude missed OTA's when they were installing a new scheme. Are you suggesting that if his struggles were due to learning a new scheme, that he'd never get better? How often do we see (and hear) offensive lines struggling early on in the season, only to get better with more experience? It was always a possibility that Becton's TC performance was not indicative of what his season performance would be.

Also, Becton looked fine in pre-season, albeit it was against mostly backups, as well as Week 1 before his injury.

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21 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

I won't disagree that there are questions about Becton. I have those questions, too. But, it's April. I'll revisit my stance in July.

 

If it’s July and Becton is still performing in ways that make him questionable as a contributor, Douglas is probably going to get fired. 

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44 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

fwiw my thought—in the scenario where they opt to trade Becton—is that Becton is persona non grata inside the building right now and Saleh would want to move on from him, which isn’t uncommon with new coaches trying to establish control of a locker room. As such, he has no value to the team and he’d just represent whatever return you get for him in a trade. That’s one piece. Then it’s the piece where you replace him, which is where I could see Douglas possibly spending another first on a guy he likes, whomever that may be. Fwiw, I’m agnostic on who they pick and where. I’ve saturated my brain with so much draft content the past few weeks that I’m convinced that everybody sucks. 

I think I’ve been consistent in our prior exchanges re tackle. No issue whatsoever moving Becton, but a top ten pick on a right tackle to protect a young QB is a non starter for me. High capital for the position on the field, high variance for a team with a young question mark at QB.

Trade Becton and sign Darryl Williams and maybe draft Abraham Lucas at 69, don’t trade him and draft a tackle in the top ten especially one who has pass protection questions. I’d think that should be obvious for a team that got a year of capable RT play from Morgan Moses signed in June of last year.

I also think kind of related to a point you’ve made in the past about I think wide receivers, it’s good to get immediate help this year. I don’t think right tackle moves the needle much over other guys you can acquire at that position.

I’m growing player agnostic but not process agnostic, because I agree I don’t like this class much. So much comes down to picking the right players but with the randomness of drafting I think it’s more important to have a good process in place. I genuinely think the teams that are good at drafting have good processes but aren’t necessarily better at identifying players. They acquire picks and take the right positions in the right spots.

As much as Douglas has warts, I think he’s done that and free agency reasonably well. And I think continuity is good for franchises. I’d rather see him have a good process, learn from mistakes, improve it, get good results, and hang around than be starting this thing over again in 9 months.

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4 hours ago, ZachEY said:

McGovern literally had the baby and he is joining on Monday.  Becton's girlfriend is expecting in like 3 weeks.

They're not covered the same because those are not the same thing.

The moment Becton's girlfriend had a contraction, he could get on Woody's private plane and be there in less than 6 hours.  3 weeks before my wife had our kids, I was working.

Amazing how people don’t see the difference in these 2 circumstances 

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3 hours ago, PepPep said:

This is absurd. So he DIDN'T get hut and have surgery and have to rehab and get back into football shape during a lost NFL season where the team sucked and coaches were probably telling him to take his time because a fully competent LT had already stepped in? Did I dream that? I must have. He must have just 'opted out of playing'. THAT must have been the reality of the situation. 

Him not playing last season is on him and his rehab

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25 minutes ago, derp said:

I think I’ve been consistent in our prior exchanges re tackle. No issue whatsoever moving Becton, but a top ten pick on a right tackle to protect a young QB is a non starter for me. High capital for the position on the field, high variance for a team with a young question mark at QB.

Trade Becton and sign Darryl Williams and maybe draft Abraham Lucas at 69, don’t trade him and draft a tackle in the top ten especially one who has pass protection questions. I’d think that should be obvious for a team that got a year of capable RT play from Morgan Moses signed in June of last year.

I also think kind of related to a point you’ve made in the past about I think wide receivers, it’s good to get immediate help this year. I don’t think right tackle moves the needle much over other guys you can acquire at that position.

I’m growing player agnostic but not process agnostic, because I agree I don’t like this class much. So much comes down to picking the right players but with the randomness of drafting I think it’s more important to have a good process in place. I genuinely think the teams that are good at drafting have good processes but aren’t necessarily better at identifying players. They acquire picks and take the right positions in the right spots.

As much as Douglas has warts, I think he’s done that and free agency reasonably well. And I think continuity is good for franchises. I’d rather see him have a good process, learn from mistakes, improve it, get good results, and hang around than be starting this thing over again in 9 months.

I think I’m just hung up on the idea of Douglas and Saleh prioritizing guys who are tough, low-maintenance, and have good RAS charts. I’ve joked that their perfect first round is Travon Walker and Trevor Penning, but I think we’ll see something along those lines, at least personality wise. I agree with you that ORT would be a shaky use of resources, fwiw, but I think it’s just something they would do. Lay it up and live for the next hole. 

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Just now, 65 Toss Power Trap said:

??? Are you just trolling? What is your reasoning? 

What has Saleh done to make you think he's good?  Our defense last season was the worst Jets defense I've ever seen in my lifetime and I've lived through some really, really bad years.  And now Becton wants to quit and Mims is getting canceled -- way to develop your top draft picks

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11 minutes ago, Dwight Englewood said:

What has Saleh done to make you think he's good?  Our defense last season was the worst Jets defense I've ever seen in my lifetime and I've lived through some really, really bad years.  And now Becton wants to quit and Mims is getting canceled -- way to develop your top draft picks

 

um, you just making stuff up here?

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20 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I think I’m just hung up on the idea of Douglas and Saleh prioritizing guys who are tough, low-maintenance, and have good RAS charts. I’ve joked that their perfect first round is Travon Walker and Trevor Penning, but I think we’ll see something along those lines, at least personality wise. I agree with you that ORT would be a shaky use of resources, fwiw, but I think it’s just something they would do. Lay it up and live for the next hole. 

Actually i think their ideal is ekongwu and JJ.

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Just now, Dwight Englewood said:

It does after you barely played the previous season 

um, no it doesn't

now if he skips mandatory camps and doesn't show to training camp, you may be on to something.  but i'm guessing the coaches and front office (you know, people who actually know him and are talking to him and his team) have more info than any of us message board experts...

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14 minutes ago, Dwight Englewood said:

What has Saleh done to make you think he's good?  Our defense last season was the worst Jets defense I've ever seen in my lifetime and I've lived through some really, really bad years.  And now Becton wants to quit and Mims is getting canceled -- way to develop your top draft picks

1. Your original statement I was responding to is that "Saleh is horrible.  I cannot understand how we've managed to get a coach who is even worse than Bowles and Gase." I am not arguing that he is good. I am arguing that we can't deem him "horrible" at this point. And I am arguing that he hasn't had time to show whether he is worse than both Bowles and Gase. He came into a team that was not going to win very many games his first 2-3 years, regardless of what he did. 

2. The defense looked absolutely horrible last year. He needs to clean if up fast, no doubt. He's not a horrible coach, he came into a situation where he didn't have much to deal with, and he's a first time head coach, and the coaches and gms for years before him didn't do much to build a solid team. If the defense is as bad this year, I'll be the first to say he has to go. I don't see a single indicator that it is going to be as bad. 

3. How do you know Becton wants to quit?

4. What do you mean when you say "Mims is getting cancelled"?

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23 minutes ago, Dwight Englewood said:

So Becton didn't skip OTAs?

No, he didn't.

These are voluntary workouts. Not OTAs. OTAs start in May.

https://jetsxfactor.com/2022/04/01/ny-jets-ota-minicamp-start/

^^

Quote

The Jets will begin their 2022 OTAs on May 23, and their final practice of OTAs will be on June 10. Their 10 permitted practices will take place on the following dates:

Monday-Tuesday, May 23-24

Thursday, May 26

Tuesday-Wednesday, May 31-June 1

Friday, June 3

Tuesday-Friday, June 7-10

 

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2 hours ago, Spoot-Face said:

I won't disagree that there are questions about Becton. I have those questions, too. But, it's April. I'll revisit my stance in July.

On the bold, honestly, I don't know. I don't give that much thought to the players regarding voluntary workouts. When I see Becton and people questioning his motivation and love of ball, I immediately think back to the draft night and his reaction. Dude was crying and looked so pumped. "Let's go! Let's go! I'm ready coach," I remember him saying.

I know actions speak louder than words, though, so let's look at them:

1. Showing up to his first camp overweight, by his own admission. (Although, that didn't seem to hurt his performance much, and if it did, and he can reach an even higher level, then boy look out.)

2. Ballooning up to 380 by the end of the 2020 season. This has a lot to do with his injury and being limited in his abiility to work out. Being dejected could've also played a role and hurt his motivation which led to weight gain. That we can maybe chalk up to immaturity, which is fixable.

3. People complain about him pulling himself out of games over his injury, but I have a unique perspective since I had the same injury. I was able to rehab it with PT some and was still able to work (a physical job) but I was limited, and just when it was feeling close to 100%, BOOM I tweaked it on the job and it got worse. Had to get the surgery.

4. Then there was the foot injury that held him out of last year's OTA's (with varying opinions of whether it was caused by weight or not). This missed time probably contributed to his TC struggles with the scheme change.

5. Then there's the narrative that he showed up to camp last year out of shape, but, as I posted earlier in the thread, I can't find a single article that supports this, and by all accounts, he actually showed up in shape DESPITE the foot injury.

6. Lastly, you have his injury in Week 1, through no fault of his own conditioning. Where I started to get concerned was when the coaches started to air their frustration about his inability to come back mid-season. Now, I'm not a doctor and have no inside knowledge on the particulars of his injury, so I can't speak on when he should've been able to come back (though that never stops anyone else). Let's also not act like this is the first time when team doctors disagree with a player on their recovery time. Hard to say who is right. I do remember seeing that picture that showed he was probably overweight again, due to his inability to exercise and perhaps some depression-induced de-motivation. This would be two years in a row, and I get that that's concerning. That's why I wanted Moses back.

To end this unintentionally long post, I'll say that I totally get the concerns over his ability to get on the field, even though I think some of it is overblown. At best, he's a tremendously talented player who has had some unfortunate injuries and setbacks, and at worst he has some immaturity problems, which are 100% fixable. But I'm not going to hit the panic button over missed voluntary workouts in April. To me, the make or break time will be OTA's, TC, and this season.

I just want to highlight this comment you made... The post was long... And isn't it terrifying that you made a post that long about the challenges of our highly drafted LT after just two years and an offseason? And that post probably could have been longer in highlighting how he made Carl Lawson look like the unintended outcome of a passionate evening between Lawrence Taylor and Reggie White?

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2 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I think I’m just hung up on the idea of Douglas and Saleh prioritizing guys who are tough, low-maintenance, and have good RAS charts. I’ve joked that their perfect first round is Travon Walker and Trevor Penning, but I think we’ll see something along those lines, at least personality wise. I agree with you that ORT would be a shaky use of resources, fwiw, but I think it’s just something they would do. Lay it up and live for the next hole. 

I think the distinction comes with there being a difference between the guys you described, specifically and in general, and laying it up. AVT was a lay it up pick - really good guard prospect, no flags, plug and play. Penning, Ekwonu, Walker all aren’t actually technically good at the things they need to be good at to impact the team day one and so they’re risky prospects, they’re just athletic and not going to be headaches.

Hutchinson, Gardner, Cross, Davis, Karlaftis, even Neal I think are more along the lines of what you’re conceptually describing. Those are guys you’re pretty sure can come in and do something IMO. Ekwonu, Penning, Walker (who I don’t even think is there at 4) you’re bringing in and hoping they’re something they weren’t in college. To me that’s not laying it up.

Put differently, I think you can justify a risky prospect at a premium position or a really safe prospect at a non premium position but Ekwonu and Penning are risky prospects at non premium positions.

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43 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

I just want to highlight this comment you made... The post was long... And isn't it terrifying that you made a post that long about the challenges of our highly drafted LT after just two years and an offseason? And that post probably could have been longer in highlighting how he made Carl Lawson look like the unintended outcome of a passionate evening between Lawrence Taylor and Reggie White?

Yeah, lol, and I'm not even as down on Becton as many seem to be.

As far as the training camp reports of him being beaten by Lawson? I'll just say I'd be more concerned if he didn't already demonstrate he can play at a high level his rookie year. For now, I'll chalk up those TC reports as him just being behind in learning the scheme from missing OTA's (which is why I think it's imperative that he shows this year). He didn't seem to have those same problems in preseason or Week 1, albeit those were super limited snaps.

If he's still struggling this TC and preseason, then maybe it's a sign he's just not a fit for the scheme that Lafleur wants to run here, in which case, if he's healthy, teams that run a more man blocking scheme will see that and we'll be able to recoup some decent capital in a trade.

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25 minutes ago, derp said:

I think the distinction comes with there being a difference between the guys you described, specifically and in general, and laying it up. AVT was a lay it up pick - really good guard prospect, no flags, plug and play. Penning, Ekwonu, Walker all aren’t actually technically good at the things they need to be good at to impact the team day one and so they’re risky prospects, they’re just athletic and not going to be headaches.

Hutchinson, Gardner, Cross, Davis, Karlaftis, even Neal I think are more along the lines of what you’re conceptually describing. Those are guys you’re pretty sure can come in and do something IMO. Ekwonu, Penning, Walker (who I don’t even think is there at 4) you’re bringing in and hoping they’re something they weren’t in college. To me that’s not laying it up.

Put differently, I think you can justify a risky prospect at a premium position or a really safe prospect at a non premium position but Ekwonu and Penning are risky prospects at non premium positions.

I would disagree only in the “day one” part. I think these Jets are still ok with developmental prospects, but they want developmental prospects who are “all about ball,” i.e. Zach Wilson.

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1 hour ago, ZachEY said:

I just want to highlight this comment you made... The post was long... And isn't it terrifying that you made a post that long about the challenges of our highly drafted LT after just two years and an offseason? And that post probably could have been longer in highlighting how he made Carl Lawson look like the unintended outcome of a passionate evening between Lawrence Taylor and Reggie White?

It takes a lot of words to explain why the thing you are seeing isn’t real, and very few to say, for instance, “the sky is blue.”

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8 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

They already have this information.

All they really have is information based off of one shortened training camp in which he struggled, and a preseason and one regular season game in which, IIRC, he didn't.

But, yes, to your point, the coaching staff know a lot better than we do what Becton is capable of. That's what makes this next week really interesting and will be very telling what they do re: Becton and OT. Them letting Moses walk in FA was already pretty telling. Either they 1) have another RT in mind to replace him in the draft or 2) already believe they have their starting OTs on the roster right now.

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12 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

It takes a lot of words to explain why the thing you are seeing isn’t real, and very few to say, for instance, “the sky is blue.”

I think you've already made up your mind about Becton and thus, everything you read about him is just confirmation of what you already believe.

I've never said there isn't substance behind the concerns. Hell, my long post outlined where there is some substance, and I share some concerns.

But, we've already established that you're pushing a narrative that Becton came to camp in 2021 out of shape, which I can't find any reports of being true. If you find them, I'll happily change my tune.

Until then, I'll just say "the sky is blue, and T0mshane sucks".

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On 4/21/2022 at 12:22 PM, Adoni Beast said:

At this point it SHOULD be Icky at 4 and WR at 10.

Trade Becton for a 2nd or even a 3rd at this point he is a culture killer to keep him on.

2020 draft class looking absolutely atrocious...like all time bad for the Jets and THAT is saying something!

I've beaten this horse to death since the day we drafted Becton.  But his pick was even uglier when you consider Tristan Wirfs is the consumate, hard working, high achieving tackle we wanted.  He gave up one sack in 2020 (Khalil Mack) and made the Pro bowl in 2021 in addition to getting the nod as a 1st team all pro.  The writing was on the wall.  Wirfs was a workout warrior who broke Brandon Scherf's powerlifting record at Iowa.  Becton was...very big.  So sad.

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