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Odds of Icky at 4 just increased dramatically


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4 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Can we create a swap around becton and deebo?

The Niners have Trent Williams and Mike McGlinchey at tackle. But you know who is absolutely desperate for a tackle? The Seattle Seahawks

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Not to toot my own massive horn, but I remember telling this website that Rex was going to immediately cut Kerry Rhodes and some people got very mad at me because they loved Kerry Rhodes. Same thing with Becton. The new coach gets to decapitate a prominent player he doesn’t like. 

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

This Becton is gone thing has caught fire. 

 

The question I have is - If Ickey is off the board- are the Jets really taking Neal or Cross at 4 over an edge rusher? 

It sure would be nice if Becton could just get his sh*t together. 

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9 hours ago, BigRy56 said:

What I think we are missing is Fant's age, his only one year of major production, and the idea that his contract is up after this year. Rewind to Summer 2021 and everybody was blasting George Fant - he was somebody that people regularly knocked JD about. One good season and now we are set with him? If Becton is healthy, he's a monster. Drafting Ickey at 4 puts him as the opposite bookend and gives the Jets one of the best OL's in the NFL heading into training camp.

I would prefer a premier pass rusher or Sauce, since Fant did have such a solid season last year and could be extended for a couple of years. But you could see the identity of this team being put together with Ekwonu at 4.

I understand 'it hasn't been done before' with regards to drafting OL in round 1 three years in a row, but we have the luxury of 2 top 10 picks.

Also... trends aren't built until they are. 10 years ago, trading away all your draft picks was lunacy and could never result in a Superbowl. Enter the Rams, who are now Superbowl champs and upcoming NFC favorites, and it's suddenly not such a bad idea. There are a lot of worse things to invest in than an elite OL.

but do you understand why nobody has ever done it? 

1st. your not paying all of them in 5 years. a 1st rd draft pick should get a 2nd contract. if these guys all live up to there draft spots you just cant afford them. even if Becton is gone AVT if he continues to play well will cost around 20 mil. the 4th pick in the draft better be so good he asks for top LT money which today is 23 mil. thats 40 mil for 2 spots. AVT is gone.

2nd. we didnt use 3 picks on a LT, LG and lets say RT. no we are using our 3rd pick on LT again. so 3 picks for 2 positions. how does that make us better? because remember why were doing this, were all worried about Becton. so were not even doing it right. 

3rd. todays QBs release it much faster that they make these OL obsolete. you dont need the best OL to win just look at Cincy. one 1st rd pick an a bad OL. they built there team thru the QB, WRs and defense, the right way. and you also prove my point with the Rams who had none and a 40 yr old LT. 

its true this would be the 1st time that 3 have been drafted in 3 straight years, but there have been a few teams who have had 3 on there roster. last year in was Atl, NO  and Det. and none of those teams are good. and the Lions have draft 5 in 10 years. there like the NFL farm system for OL. Rielly (2012) played on 3 teams and went to the SB last year with Cincy. Laken (2015) was traded to SF after just 2 year and is now our LG. 

so drafting OL every other year has been tried before and has all failed. could we make it work and be a unicorn? sure anything is possible but the odds are better for you to hit lotto then this to work out.

out of the last 22 SB winners 20 had one or none on there roster. and the other 2 teams had 2. the NFL is doing just fine without drafting OL in rd 1. there isnt going to be a trend. 

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5 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Not to toot my own massive horn, but I remember telling this website that Rex was going to immediately cut Kerry Rhodes and some people got very mad at me because they loved Kerry Rhodes. Same thing with Becton. The new coach gets to decapitate a prominent player he doesn’t like. 

I’m still mad at you. I love Rex and I’m still mad at him.

Rhodes was great. Too good for our fans.

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I’m still mad at you. I love Rex and I’m still mad at him.
Rhodes was great. Too good for our fans.
Hated Rex ... but loved Rhodes, and Vilma, Rob Moore, and Demario.... all guys that escaped from ny.
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4 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

Hated Rex ... but loved Rhodes, and Vilma, Rob Moore, and Demario.... all guys that escaped from ny.

Vilma was entirely on Mangini's stubbornness trying to force a system on players completely unsuited to it. 

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15 hours ago, bitonti said:

I appreciate the effort but that's a very injury prone list. They are not going to bring back Brandon Shell. And half of these guys are pure left tackles like Duane brown and solder. Replacement level is how this group can be described 

 

It's a list for depth, not for week 1 starters we need for 17 games. The entire purpose is replacement for a few snaps or a few series or a few games when a starter has to come off the field.

The "pure left tackles" thing is nonsense. The good ones are all pure LTs until they're needed on the other side more than they're needed at LT, like Beachum after he left the Jets. The idea that there's even one person on this list inferior to Edoga is preposterous.

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8 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Not to toot my own massive horn, but I remember telling this website that Rex was going to immediately cut Kerry Rhodes and some people got very mad at me because they loved Kerry Rhodes. Same thing with Becton. The new coach gets to decapitate a prominent player he doesn’t like. 

Pure football question (Non regarding his injuries) - Does Becton fit the zone running SF scheme? Those guys have to be really mobile I thought. Ikey would be like the prototype right?

Pete Carroll loves Becton btw. 

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1 minute ago, Shockwave said:

Pure football question (Non regarding his injuries) - Does Becton fit the zone running SF scheme? Those guys have to be really mobile I thought. Ikey would be like the prototype right?

Pete Carroll loves Becton btw. 

Becton is exceptionally mobile for his size. Freakishly so.

I don't think it's a physical thing with him, just doesn't seem willing to put in the work. LaFleur was frustrated with him enough to keep him after practices. I think there's just been a breakdown in the relationship and all parties want to move on.

He could easily thrive somewhere else, especially with a good team and that could be another rod the Jets will be beaten with in a few years. But this coaching staff seems either unable or unwilling to work with him. 

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2 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

Becton is exceptionally mobile for his size. Freakishly so.

I don't think it's a physical thing with him, just doesn't seem willing to put in the work. LaFleur was frustrated with him enough to keep him after practices. I think there's just been a breakdown in the relationship and all parties want to move on.

He could easily thrive somewhere else, especially with a good team and that could be another rod the Jets will be beaten with in a few years. But this coaching staff seems either unable or unwilling to work with him. 

For real, the narrative of him being this lumbering guy is total crap.  His reach blocking, which is arguably the most important one for zone blocking, is the one he may be best at.

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10 hours ago, doitny said:

but do you understand why nobody has ever done it? 

1st. your not paying all of them in 5 years. a 1st rd draft pick should get a 2nd contract. if these guys all live up to there draft spots you just cant afford them. even if Becton is gone AVT if he continues to play well will cost around 20 mil. the 4th pick in the draft better be so good he asks for top LT money which today is 23 mil. thats 40 mil for 2 spots. AVT is gone.

2nd. we didnt use 3 picks on a LT, LG and lets say RT. no we are using our 3rd pick on LT again. so 3 picks for 2 positions. how does that make us better? because remember why were doing this, were all worried about Becton. so were not even doing it right. 

3rd. todays QBs release it much faster that they make these OL obsolete. you dont need the best OL to win just look at Cincy. one 1st rd pick an a bad OL. they built there team thru the QB, WRs and defense, the right way. and you also prove my point with the Rams who had none and a 40 yr old LT. 

its true this would be the 1st time that 3 have been drafted in 3 straight years, but there have been a few teams who have had 3 on there roster. last year in was Atl, NO  and Det. and none of those teams are good. and the Lions have draft 5 in 10 years. there like the NFL farm system for OL. Rielly (2012) played on 3 teams and went to the SB last year with Cincy. Laken (2015) was traded to SF after just 2 year and is now our LG. 

so drafting OL every other year has been tried before and has all failed. could we make it work and be a unicorn? sure anything is possible but the odds are better for you to hit lotto then this to work out.

out of the last 22 SB winners 20 had one or none on there roster. and the other 2 teams had 2. the NFL is doing just fine without drafting OL in rd 1. there isnt going to be a trend. 

The way it'd work is one-fold: the position starters we'd otherwise have drafted in the top 10 will have to be found later in the draft instead. Sure it can work; it's just much harder is all. e.g. of course there are plenty of WRs found after round 1; we hear about them all the time. What's conveniently ignored is that there are more misses than hits among those later picks, and the further back you go the higher the miss-rate.

We might go to an Idzik strategy there: instead of a 1st round guard, he took 3 of them in rounds 3 and later; instead of a 1st round WR he took 3 of them in rounds 4-6. Each time he technically hit on 1 of 3 starters, though neither attempt yielded a huge hit like the team craved. Anyway, the alternative is hoping to go 1 for 1 with a later pick at those need-positions (or adding a veteran instead).

Pittsburgh finds all their WRs in the bottom half of round 2-3 or even later - their most recent round 1 WR was Santonio Holmes in 2006, and Plaxico in 2000 before that - but they would seem to burn a day-2 pick & take at least one every year religiously and, since we're not Steelers fans agonizing over every missed pick, as a result we conveniently ignore those they drafted who weren't hits (and they've sure had 'em).

  • 2013 they missed on 2 WRs (rounds 3 & 6);
  • 2014 they missed on 2 more in rounds 3 & 4 (though Bryant briefly teased success);
  • 2015 missed on yet another (round 3);
  • 2016 only took a late-rounder (round 7) but missed again; still count him because we'd surely count him if he'd hit;
  • 2017 hit on JJSS (round 2);
  • 2018 missed again (round 2);
  • 2019 they hit again on Dionte J. (round 3)
  • 2020 hit again with Claypool in round 2 (even if he's not as big a hit as he seemed he'd be after his rookie season, he wasn't a whiff of a pick). 

So a team that's really, really good at this - with a further advantage of solid coaching and a veteran HOF QB - has a lowly hit rate of 30% (3 of 10) over the past 8-year span. They didn't just arbitrarily start in 2017 and then hit on 3 of 4; they're playing percentages and keep trying again whether they've hit or not, creating a WR pipeline that keeps them from burning $20MM/year on a WR (the last time they did reinvest in a veteran mega-contract - Antonio Brown - it blew up in their faces, but look at his numbers plus the whiffs they drafted before offering that extension).

Doing this is a discipline, easier done by a team that doesn't have a last-place team's starter holes, and you can't just surgically draft them when you need a starter that year. Draft 'em, let them get better, accept that most won't develop as you hoped, but if you're doing it right you don't have to fret over losing the big money veteran WR because it allows you to keep paying your HOF QB you can't do without.

At the same time they did hit on a few in a row before the drought (Wallace, Sanders, and Brown). If you burn a 1st round pick on a center, it's typically terrible value but a team can easily get away with that - and then some - if they then find Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown in rounds 3 and 6 in that same draft, where most would require hindsight to hit on a pair like that (if two such WRs are even drafted that year by any teams), and I can't recall the last time a team hit that big on such a pair after the first 2 rounds were over, while welcome this is as poor percentage of a plan as a financial plan that relies upon exclusively picking winning equities rather than a series of hedges to not just enjoy gains but also lessen the blow of losses. The draft is kinda like that, in a sense.

Anyway it's not all, "meh, just draft one in rounds 2 or 3 because that's where Deebo & Kupp (and others) were drafted."

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The big advantage I think there is, in drafting a WR after round 1, is it makes it easier for a GM to ignore combine numbers. 40 time most prominently; but also height, hand size & more.

It's less common to pull the trigger on a 1st round WR (never mind top 10) who ran the 40 in 4.5 seconds or slower, even though sharp cuts (or fake cuts) that catch a CB leaning the wrong way will create more separation than running the 40 yard dash 0.1 to 0.2 seconds faster in gym shorts.

If a GM misses on one of those "slow" WRs in rounds 2-3? Shoulder shrugs, unless the team's desperate for a starting WR right this minute. Miss on a slower-40 WR in round 1 ahead of one with blistering speed? Every media outlet kills you for your stupidity and lack of foresight, you get fired, and all fans & media alike will say deservedly so.

Further, WRs later than round 1 aren't expected to be insta-awesome; you can sporadically put them on & off the field as they earn more coach confidence, and if they do hit right away they make the GM look brilliant. Never mind finding a 300-600 yard WR in round 3 still (at least temporarily) fills a useful role as a WR and probably on specials, too; conversely if that production WR is drafted in round 1 - top 10 especially - that's a noteworthy bust of a pick. 

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54 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

Becton is exceptionally mobile for his size. Freakishly so.

I don't think it's a physical thing with him, just doesn't seem willing to put in the work. LaFleur was frustrated with him enough to keep him after practices. I think there's just been a breakdown in the relationship and all parties want to move on.

He could easily thrive somewhere else, especially with a good team and that could be another rod the Jets will be beaten with in a few years. But this coaching staff seems either unable or unwilling to work with him. 

It's totally not my preference, but if there's enough bad blood between the player & coaches after 1 season, it's another hurdle to get over on top of the past health/injury issues.

Good reason/excuse as there may be for missing this past voluntary workout, unless the team is purposely trying to make the player look bad it would seem they were unaware he was going to be a no-show until it happened; that he didn't even contact the team to say, "hey my kid could be born any minute now, I can't put future mama on an airplane to NJ, but prior to her going into labor I'm available anytime day or night to show you whatever you want via zoom."

Anyway I still think it's overkill, as there are far less costly insurance hedges the team can make than such a high draft pick, but I can  of course understand it. And at least we're not talking about a ****ing center that early.

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On 4/25/2022 at 3:13 PM, football guy said:

I haven't gotten specifics. What I know is that they seem to be settled in at Sauce or Ickey at #4 (don't know the order)

No offense but this isnt big news or inside info, we all know the Jets will take one of 3 positions, EDGE, CB or OL @ 4 the inside info leading to two of those 3 isnt earth shattering.  Or shouldnt be to anyone 

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2 hours ago, varjet said:

We ask ourselves why JD used basically three premium draft picks to add AVT to the OL as LG last year.  Seems kind of crazy now.  

But last year, the Jets could not find a good LG.  We lost out in FA to Thuney, and getting AVT for three picks seemed like the right move. 

But now that we were able to buy Laken in FA to plug in at LG, the AVT move seems to make less sense.  He is now a RG which you are supposed to be able to find in the 4th round and below (1 pick, not 3).  

Depends whom you're talking to. I agree with you 100% here, but when it suits one's (argumentative) needs, RG is suddenly more valuable than LG if Scherff is the name being tossed around lol.

If AVT is merely a very good guard it was overkill. I'm not big on guards taken that early in the first place, but if they do it he'd better be a perennial pro bowl guard (if not all-pro). Particularly since AVT was in one of the OL-richest draft classes, it did remind me of taking Adams at #6: a non-premium position in the first place, in a draft where there were ~20 safeties expected to be selected.

The odds of drafting Quenton Nelson II are beyond slim - not just luck of picking the right one, but despite the annual hype of this or that one, I'm not sure if one like him even comes out of school every decade - and with the lack of championship rings & such on Nelson's fingers it's still questionable value (though I'll grant the team that Luck's early retirement caught them by surprise, and who knows what'd happen if he was their QB these past few seasons). 

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4 hours ago, Shockwave said:

Pure football question (Non regarding his injuries) - Does Becton fit the zone running SF scheme? Those guys have to be really mobile I thought. Ikey would be like the prototype right?

Pete Carroll loves Becton btw. 

Pete Carroll also likes Thibodeaux, the Jets aren’t going to take him at four, and it sounds like Ekonwu is going top three, so I’d tell Deebo to pound sand and try to do something like THIS:

 

 

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3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The way it'd work is one-fold: the position starters we'd otherwise have drafted in the top 10 will have to be found later in the draft instead. Sure it can work; it's just much harder is all. e.g. of course there are plenty of WRs found after round 1; we hear about them all the time. What's conveniently ignored is that there are more misses than hits among those later picks, and the further back you go the higher the miss-rate.

We might go to an Idzik strategy there: instead of a 1st round guard, he took 3 of them in rounds 3 and later; instead of a 1st round WR he took 3 of them in rounds 4-6. Each time he technically hit on 1 of 3 starters, though neither attempt yielded a huge hit like the team craved. Anyway, the alternative is hoping to go 1 for 1 with a later pick at those need-positions (or adding a veteran instead).

Pittsburgh finds all their WRs in the bottom half of round 2-3 or even later - their most recent round 1 WR was Santonio Holmes in 2006, and Plaxico in 2000 before that - but they would seem to burn a day-2 pick & take at least one every year religiously and, since we're not Steelers fans agonizing over every missed pick, as a result we conveniently ignore those they drafted who weren't hits (and they've sure had 'em).

  • 2013 they missed on 2 WRs (rounds 3 & 6);
  • 2014 they missed on 2 more in rounds 3 & 4 (though Bryant briefly teased success);
  • 2015 missed on yet another (round 3);
  • 2016 only took a late-rounder (round 7) but missed again; still count him because we'd surely count him if he'd hit;
  • 2017 hit on JJSS (round 2);
  • 2018 missed again (round 2);
  • 2019 they hit again on Dionte J. (round 3)
  • 2020 hit again with Claypool in round 2 (even if he's not as big a hit as he seemed he'd be after his rookie season, he wasn't a whiff of a pick). 

So a team that's really, really good at this - with a further advantage of solid coaching and a veteran HOF QB - has a lowly hit rate of 30% (3 of 10) over the past 8-year span. They didn't just arbitrarily start in 2017 and then hit on 3 of 4; they're playing percentages and keep trying again whether they've hit or not, creating a WR pipeline that keeps them from burning $20MM/year on a WR (the last time they did reinvest in a veteran mega-contract - Antonio Brown - it blew up in their faces, but look at his numbers plus the whiffs they drafted before offering that extension).

Doing this is a discipline, easier done by a team that doesn't have a last-place team's starter holes, and you can't just surgically draft them when you need a starter that year. Draft 'em, let them get better, accept that most won't develop as you hoped, but if you're doing it right you don't have to fret over losing the big money veteran WR because it allows you to keep paying your HOF QB you can't do without.

At the same time they did hit on a few in a row before the drought (Wallace, Sanders, and Brown). If you burn a 1st round pick on a center, it's typically terrible value but a team can easily get away with that - and then some - if they then find Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown in rounds 3 and 6 in that same draft, where most would require hindsight to hit on a pair like that (if two such WRs are even drafted that year by any teams), and I can't recall the last time a team hit that big on such a pair after the first 2 rounds were over, while welcome this is as poor percentage of a plan as a financial plan that relies upon exclusively picking winning equities rather than a series of hedges to not just enjoy gains but also lessen the blow of losses. The draft is kinda like that, in a sense.

Anyway it's not all, "meh, just draft one in rounds 2 or 3 because that's where Deebo & Kupp (and others) were drafted."

Trying to remain brief, drafting receivers is hard. It’s one of those positions that skill at the position sometimes overcomes tools but teams draft traits uncorrelated with success early. Also IMO something to be said for having a stable of guys so the QB can identify mismatches to attack.

It needs to be done consistently as it’s a volume play, but it’s one of those positions that legit stars are found day two and you need a bunch nowadays anyway. Think it’s a really solid strategy.

No guarantees in the first round either. Eagles are potentially drafting their third in three years. Believe recently quoted stats had over the last 10-15 years both mean and median rookie year receiving yards in the 600’s and something like 19% over 1000 - more specific to the vet versus first round discussion than first or later but still interesting.

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On 4/26/2022 at 11:32 AM, choon328 said:

Did he come into camp "ready to go" last year? Why should anybody give him the benefit of the doubt. Get off your high horse. 

My high horse? Dude I am just not ready to sh*t all over a third year player who was hurt last season. Knock yourself out. 

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