Travon Walker heavy betting favorite to be the 1st pick

[Irish Jet]

Just now, 65 Toss Power Trap said:

Pederson actually knows offensive football. Unless Mekhi is 100% good to go (which no one can say he is), take Ickey at 4 if he's there.

I wouldn't complain. Love the prospect but it would be depressing to know they're so low on Becton.

I would say the thought of Enwonu and Becton reaching their potential together would be terrifying, the run blocking would be next level. That said if we draft him I don't think the issue is George Fant. 

[65 Toss Power Trap]

52 minutes ago, faba said:

I still say Jets avoid Thibs was not impressed the times I saw him play but what do I know

Is there any good info on what the Jets actually think of him? I've heard his visit "went well," but nothing beyond that. Some say he is a stud and all the other stuff doesn't affect his evaluation. Then some say he is a huge "?". Which is it?

[derp]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The two teams I keep reading/hearing that like Willis are the Seahawks and the Steelers, but the draft-media hivemind at this moment doesn’t think Willis can give anyone else value right away, and with next year supposedly being an infinitely better QB class, those QB needy teams are just gonna roll with stopgaps and then take another look in 2023. I heard a good point that the only reasons guys like Trey Lance and Max Jones went as high as they did last year was because teams saw how weak this year’s class was, so they took their shots last year. I think someone will take Willis for sure, but I’d be stunned if it was the Lions at 2. 

Yeah the Steelers are the big one.

I think QB early is a dart throw that boils down to things that are hard to assess until you actually get guys in an NFL building. If you like a dude, he's talented, and you don't have one, take him but don't worry about cutting bait early. I brought up Rosen for a reason.

There's a big difference between passing on like, Chase or Pitts to draft a QB and passing on the guys in this draft. It's a terrible framework for it but expected value wise - say Willis is like a literal dice roll. You need a 6 and you win $1M. Hutchinson is say, you need a 4 or below but you win $100k. And maybe Chase and Pitts last year were coinflips for $400k.

This is obviously completely made up and I tweaked the numbers to suit my point, but even if you've got the really high bust rate with Willis, the upside is so high that without a high value position player option it's probably the move with the best expected value even if there's a really good chance you miss. It's especially good if you're willing to cut bait quickly if you realize it's a miss. I don't think anybody is going to bemoan not having Hutchinson (who probably fits the biggest need on the Jets who might be willing to hit a double there for a pass rusher - the Texans are so far away I don't know how much of a difference he makes).

This is even being used to rationalize why Walker is now the favorite to go #1, heard maybe Nate Tice on the Athletic podcast today say this is a class of doubles and Walker is a swing at a home run. Willis is the same. Taking a chance on a franchise QB is a problem if you get it in the way of taking another if you have the opportunity, but with the right outlook it's the biggest chance of making a legitimate big impact on your franchise.

All of that said I still think the Lions pass on Willis, but they've done serious work on QB's. And I think they should take him. See what you've got, you'll probably be bad and have the Rams' pick next year anyway, fire it up again in 2023 if you need to.

[65 Toss Power Trap]

Just now, Irish Jet said:

I wouldn't complain. Love the prospect but it would be depressing to know they're so low on Becton.

I would say the thought of Enwonu and Becton reaching their potential together would be terrifying, the run blocking would be next level. That said if we draft him I don't think the issue is George Fant. 

I agree. If Ickey and Becton were dominating along with AVT and Tomlinson (and I except we upgrade center in the next two years), . . . my goodness

I don't love that the Jets might need to take another tackle, but they can't mess around if Becton is not solidified in their minds. Get it right, now. It's tough to pass up on defense with #4, but do what you have to do.

[T0mShane]

45 minutes ago, derp said:

Yeah the Steelers are the big one.

I think QB early is a dart throw that boils down to things that are hard to assess until you actually get guys in an NFL building. If you like a dude, he's talented, and you don't have one, take him but don't worry about cutting bait early. I brought up Rosen for a reason.

There's a big difference between passing on like, Chase or Pitts to draft a QB and passing on the guys in this draft. It's a terrible framework for it but expected value wise - say Willis is like a literal dice roll. You need a 6 and you win $1M. Hutchinson is say, you need a 4 or below but you win $100k. And maybe Chase and Pitts last year were coinflips for $400k.

This is obviously completely made up and I tweaked the numbers to suit my point, but even if you've got the really high bust rate with Willis, the upside is so high that without a high value position player option it's probably the move with the best expected value even if there's a really good chance you miss. It's especially good if you're willing to cut bait quickly if you realize it's a miss. I don't think anybody is going to bemoan not having Hutchinson (who probably fits the biggest need on the Jets who might be willing to hit a double there for a pass rusher - the Texans are so far away I don't know how much of a difference he makes).

This is even being used to rationalize why Walker is now the favorite to go #1, heard maybe Nate Tice on the Athletic podcast today say this is a class of doubles and Walker is a swing at a home run. Willis is the same. Taking a chance on a franchise QB is a problem if you get it in the way of taking another if you have the opportunity, but with the right outlook it's the biggest chance of making a legitimate big impact on your franchise.

All of that said I still think the Lions pass on Willis, but they've done serious work on QB's. And I think they should take him. See what you've got, you'll probably be bad and have the Rams' pick next year anyway, fire it up again in 2023 if you need to.

I definitely get all that, but my mind is saturated with draft takes explaining why Willis is nine miles away from being even moderately safe as a prospect and I’d just personally be terrified of taking him, especially if I’m Dan Campbell and my program is riding high on good vibes. I like the Willis-Steelers fit, because Tomlin is bulletproof and has enough capital built up to work through a proper reset. The Lions should shoot their shot with Ridder or Corral at 32, imo. Then again, picking QBs always terrifies me. Feels like betting the mortgage at the craps table every time.

[Skeptable]

9 hours ago, Rhg1084 said:

 

Interesting, will Hutch fall in our laps?

Easy money bet hutch 1 overall

[derp]

4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I definitely get all that, but my mind is saturated with draft takes explaining why Willis is nine miles away from being even moderately safe as a prospect and I’d just personally be terrified of taking him, especially if I’m Dan Campbell and my program is riding high on good vibes. I like the Willis-Steelers fit, because Tomlin is bulletproof and has enough capital built up to work through a proper reset. The Lions should shoot their shot with Ridder or Corral at 32, imo. Then again, picking QBs always terrifies me. Feels like betting the mortgage at the craps table every time.

Yeah I'm a very expected value oriented person and I think there's a lot of edge to thinking that way, especially in a league that's mentally roughly back when the wheel was invented, thus my take.

I think bad teams need needle movers. Those "hit a double" guys don't move the needle for me, especially that early. It's really tough to figure if you re-sign them. It's a different position with someone like Hutchinson being an edge but I feel like the Jets have done that with the Williams' and Adams and you get caught in a pickle when you're trying to figure out if they're long-term guys on the team. He could be similar.

The risky prospects are often the hyper talented guys. Allen was risky, Herbert was risky, Mahomes was risky. Tools matter. 

I'd shoot my shot. But I don't mind gambling. Scared money don't make no money.

[T0mShane]

7 minutes ago, derp said:

Yeah I'm a very expected value oriented person and I think there's a lot of edge to thinking that way, especially in a league that's mentally roughly back when the wheel was invented, thus my take.

I think bad teams need needle movers. Those "hit a double" guys don't move the needle for me, especially that early. It's really tough to figure if you re-sign them. It's a different position with someone like Hutchinson being an edge but I feel like the Jets have done that with the Williams' and Adams and you get caught in a pickle when you're trying to figure out if they're long-term guys on the team. He could be similar.

The risky prospects are often the hyper talented guys. Allen was risky, Herbert was risky, Mahomes was risky. Tools matter. 

I'd shoot my shot. But I don't mind gambling. Scared money don't make no money.

I can’t even defend my cowardice when it comes to QBs. I would not have drafted Mahomes, I wouldn’t have drafted Watson, I wouldn’t have drafted Baker, etc. I’m still in 1982 looking for the next Phil Simms. The last prospect that I had any confidence in being good was Matt Leinart.

[Rhg1084]

Walker all the way up to -300!!! 

[Tranquilo]

1 minute ago, Rhg1084 said:

Walker all the way up to -300!!! 

So Ickey or Sauce it is

[jetblue95]

Jags just signed Cam Robinson to a 3-year, $54MM extension.  less likely they use the 1st pick on an OT now

[Rhg1084]

So if it goes 

Jags - Walker

Det - Hutch

Houston - Stingley 

our pick has to be Thibs 100%