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Matt Waldmann Film Review on Breece Hall


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20 minutes ago, derp said:

Hall and Wilson are 4-5 in odds right now. London, Pickett, Burks, Hall, Wilson.

I’d expect Christian Watson with Aaron Rodgers or Skye Moore with Mahomes being the OROY

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27 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

I’d expect Christian Watson with Aaron Rodgers or Skye Moore with Mahomes being the OROY

I don’t know how much the betting markets factor in “sharp” stuff from the now pretty big fantasy football analytics community. I think they’re largely down on Watson as a prospect  - late breakout, inconsistent hands, not that heavy for his frame - though obviously the Packers are a nice landing spot.

They liked Moore as a prospect and as much as KC is nice they did more weapons wise before the draft so he’s he’s got to leap Juju, MVS, and Hardman for targets behind Kelce. Doable but I think it’ll scare people off.

London I think is probably overhyped because he’s easily their top WR so I think people assume he’ll get a ton of targets but Pitts is basically a WR. Pickett is an easy one as a likely starting QB for a stable organization. Corral an interesting sleeper as that job is winnable and they have some skill talent.

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16 minutes ago, derp said:

I don’t know how much the betting markets factor in “sharp” stuff from the now pretty big fantasy football analytics community. I think they’re largely down on Watson as a prospect  - late breakout, inconsistent hands, not that heavy for his frame - though obviously they a nice landing spot.

They liked Moore as a prospect and as much as KC is nice they did more weapons wise before the draft so he’s he’s got to leap Juju, MVS, and Hardman for targets behind Kelce. Doable but I think it’ll scare people off.

London I think is probably overhyped because he’s easily their top WR so I think people assume he’ll get a ton of targets but Pitts is basically a WR. Pickett is an easy one as a likely starting QB for a stable organization. Corral an interesting sleeper as that job is winnable and they have some skill talent.

Well thought out commentary. I appreciate the insight. 

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I'm still a little shocked that we got Breece. I was assuming we'd use the 2nd rounder for d line or safety or o line, and I thought we'd get a RB later on so that MC would be our number one and the other guy we drafted would be part of the "running back by committee." But now, I think Breece is our top RB, and we got MC (who's a stud) and the other guys with him. 

Really exciting to see what MC and Breece are going to put out there. And we finally have competent, big and tough TEs. We also have one of the best Guard combos in the NFL. Can't wait.

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1 hour ago, derp said:

Hall and Wilson are 4-5 in odds right now. London, Pickett, Burks, Hall, Wilson.

Outside of last year, WRs typically take a year or two to blossom compared to RBs. I think Pickett sucks.

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Definitely put money on Breece Hall for OROY. He has a high statistical output type of profile. Early declare, young breakout age and dual threat makes him a safe choice.

The only thing going against him is Michael Carter’s established ability. Even then it’s still worth the bet.

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1 minute ago, kdels62 said:

Definitely put money on Breece Hall for OROY. He has a high statistical output type of profile. Early declare, young breakout age and dual threat makes him a safe choice.

The only thing going against him is Michael Carter’s established ability. Even then it’s still worth the bet.

I think we are looking at a 70-30 split, which is as close as any non-Derrick Henry back gets to “bellcow” in the modern NFL. 

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3 hours ago, derp said:

Not sure what product you’re reading. Page 139 of the pdf, page 123 in the bottom corner.

I was looking at the Post draft RSP cheat sheet. He has Skylar 4th on his post draft chest sheet.

Doh - You are right - on his pre-draft “depth of talent” metric he has that kid as his top prospect in the last 3 years.

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21 minutes ago, jNYC1 said:

I was looking at the Post draft RSP cheat sheet. He has Skylar 4th on his post draft chest sheet.

Doh - You are right - on his pre-draft “depth of talent” metric he has that kid as his top prospect in the last 3 years.

All good. Haven’t had a chance to look at the post draft guide yet but I figured he’d drop him in there since his draft capital was pretty low.

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34 minutes ago, maury77 said:

Outside of last year, WRs typically take a year or two to blossom compared to RBs. I think Pickett sucks.

Yep, just what the betting markets are saying. I think situation is huge for QB stats, it’s a stats award, QB’s win it around half the time, and Pickett is the only guaranteed starter so I get why money is going there.

If anything, Pickett being as low as he is as the only first round QB in a class with no first round RB and a mixed group of WR’s kind of indicates people agree with you about him.

Not a lot of WR winners like you said, though I’m sure we’re seeing a gradual change there. Chase, Beckham, Percy Harvin, Boldin, and Randy Moss the last five.

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4 hours ago, T0mShane said:

 I think Zach Wilson has some problems in this arena, and I think the evidence for this is how much better the Jets looked whenever a non-Zach QB was playing QB for the Jets. 

This is just silly. 

The Jets three best performances last year were the Bengals game, Titans game, and Bucs game. 

Wilson was the QB for 2 of the 3. 

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14 hours ago, T0mShane said:

I heard a really interesting interview with a former GM who was commenting on this class of QB prospects. He cautioned against trying to shoehorn a QB into the program because that QB ends up representing your vision for that program, and if that QB sucks or is a mush, then every other player on your roster infers that you, as the GM, don’t really have a viable plan for building the team, and it poisons the well for your rebuild. The giant red flag on Zach Wilson coming out was that he lacked leadership skills and he wasn’t beloved in his own locker room. I don’t think that’s a thing that you can fix, particularly if you’re not playing well. I think Zach Wilson has some problems in this arena, and I think the evidence for this is how much better the Jets looked whenever a non-Zach QB was playing QB for the Jets. 

Zach has plenty of red flags on the field that make me deathly afraid but this gigantic pile of nonsense is not even close to one of them.

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10 hours ago, slimjasi said:

This is just silly. 

The Jets three best performances last year were the Bengals game, Titans game, and Bucs game. 

Wilson was the QB for 2 of the 3. 

The Colts game was probably in the top 3 with the Bucs and Bengals. 

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13 hours ago, derp said:

Hall and Wilson are 4-5 in odds right now. London, Pickett, Burks, Hall, Wilson.

Pickett probably has the best chance, just based off of being in the best situation. 

I think our guys will be good but don't think they'll get a big workload enough to be a standout.

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18 minutes ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

The Colts game was probably in the top 3 with the Bucs and Bengals. 

And then I’d put the Titans, Eagles, Dolphins, and Jag games a step below. 
 

The second half of the season in general was pretty good, all things considering. 

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18 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said:

Pickett probably has the best chance, just based off of being in the best situation. 

I think our guys will be good but don't think they'll get a big workload enough to be a standout.

If they’re both good they’ll split votes too.

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Here is little opposing fan Sunshine!

Here is the link to a 105 Page Tirade on Why the Bills should have draft/drafted Breece Hall!  And the reactions are epic once the Jets draft him, worth going through the last few pages just for laughs and giggles!

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/238955-breece-hall-please/page/105/

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19 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Can’t tell if I’m pro or anti Zach Wilson anymore. I’m have a split identity problem

 

It wont matter. We've got a sick ass offense so if he's not it he can **** off into oblivion cause a league average qb should ball out with our weapons

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1 hour ago, Charlie Brown said:

Here is little opposing fan Sunshine!

Here is the link to a 105 Page Tirade on Why the Bills should have draft/drafted Breece Hall!  And the reactions are epic once the Jets draft him, worth going through the last few pages just for laughs and giggles!

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/238955-breece-hall-please/page/105/

That Solomon Grundy guy who apparently started that thread gives me DWC vibes.

 

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20 hours ago, Joejet said:

Weren’t you the one that was slurping all over Paxton Lynch a few years ago? If I am correct forgive me if I  don’t buy into your qb analysis.

Paxton Lynch is on the comeback trail

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5 hours ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

The Colts game was probably in the top 3 with the Bucs and Bengals. 

Nah.

the Jets were down 42-10 halfway through the third quarter. Josh Johnson played well, but his TDs were all in garbage time. 

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16 hours ago, PS17 said:

865214D3-1E6F-48B0-956E-760AE626F77F.jpeg

Just curious for anyone who understands RAS scoring - why is Hall's score low for height?  Wouldn't a lower center of gravity be a benefit for a RB?  Not sure I'd want a 6'2" RB...

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Just me, but this vid analysis of Breece Hall took some of the shine off of him.

He was sold to us draft night as a 3 down back who is excellent in pass protection and a constant threat out of the backfield.

Seems he has some work to do on both of those things.

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19 hours ago, maury77 said:

I think Hall has a strong shot at winning offensive rookie of the year. I can’t remember the last Jet to do that.

@Joe W. Namath’s Jonathan Taylor comp actually is a really good one when I go back and watch the tape.  I absolutely loved the Garrett Wilson pick, but Breece may have been my favorite pick from the whole class.

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