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@PFF_George: Jets had a below average draft


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4 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

So I like PFF and I love the application of analytics in sports very much.  That said, this is a prime example of where the rigidity of the application clouds reasonable thinking.  Gonna sh*t on the draft because we traded up two spots to get someone who can make a big difference?  Come on

Seems like the rest of the bunch @ PFF - Monson, Palazollo [yea that's not the correct spelling], Renner & Gayle - all had high praise for the Jets despite our 'violations' of their tentpole theories (never trade up, don't take RB's early).

Doesn't surprise me that the guy I don't usually hear from on PFF has the spiciest take. New guy wants his name to ring out.  

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2 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Seems like the rest of the bunch @ PFF - Monson, Palazollo [yea that's not the correct spelling], Renner & Gayle - all had high praise for the Jets despite our 'violations' of their tentpole theories (never trade up, don't take RB's early).

Doesn't surprise me that the guy I don't usually hear from on PFF has the spiciest take. New guy wants his name to ring out.  

 

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16 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

So I like PFF and I love the application of analytics in sports very much.  That said, this is a prime example of where the rigidity of the application clouds reasonable thinking.  Gonna sh*t on the draft because we traded up two spots to get someone who can make a big difference?  Come on

I've got no problem with the guy's tweet.  I disagree, but I kind of understand the take in general (bad teams should not give up picks to move up, and don't take RB early any more). But like you suggest, it misses the context and details.

Both trade ups were not overpays, and both addressed areas of serious need for the team (edge and RB).  Neither was a "reach."  Hall is a gifted receiver and blocker, not just a runner, so he's multi-talented, not just a one-dimensional back.  He's a great pick for a team with a young QB, and he was the team's 4th pick in the draft...not just the 2nd.

The Jets still made 7 picks in a 7 round draft...it's not like JD sold out a bunch of picks for Herschel Walker.  And, they appear to have gotten very good draft value with many of the picks. I love the Ruckert and Mitchell picks, too.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

That said, this is a prime example of where the rigidity of the application clouds reasonable thinking.  Gonna sh*t on the draft because we traded up two spots to get someone who can make a big difference?  Come on

Exactly this…. These guys are all about draft capital and positional value.  Trading draft capital is a sin, trading draft capital for a RB before the 4th round is blasphemy

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All I know is every year we see these types of posts by JN members telling us what this guy said on ESPN or on the radio telling us how the Jets have succeeded or failed and there are some really insightful and sometimes exciting things said. I remember getting all juiced up by a post from Green Jets and Ham the year that they drafted a frigging placekicker in the 2nd round and Ham's enthusiasm had me convinced this was going to be. great bunch of longtime Jets stars and starters. That was the 2005 draft and well, it didn't turn out the way that GJ&H (and I) had thought and hoped. I use this one instance as an example of any rating of a draft class is complete and utter BULLCRAP . The only way to judge a draft is after the last game of that season has been played.

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2 minutes ago, SoFlaJets said:

All I know is every year we see these types of posts by JN members telling us what this guy said on ESPN or on the radio telling us how the Jets have succeeded or failed and there are some really insightful and sometimes exciting things said. I remember getting all juiced up by a post from Green Jets and Ham the year that they drafted a frigging placekicker in the 2nd round and Ham's enthusiasm had me convinced this was going to be. great bunch of longtime Jets stars and starters. That was the 2005 draft and well, it didn't turn out the way that GJ&H (and I) had thought and hoped. I use this one instance as an example of any rating of a draft class is complete and utter BULLCRAP . The only way to judge a draft is after the last game of that season has been played.

The 2005 draft was the one jet draft that universally everyone knew was a God-awful disaster the moment it happened.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Dwight Englewood said:

The 2005 draft was the one jet draft that universally everyone knew was a God-awful disaster the moment it happened.

 

 

I just used the 2005 draft as an example because every year it's the same thing. I'll bet you we can find a half dozen examples of people saying the same thing about last years class of 10 players who between them missed 53 games to injury and just plain being crappy picks. Right now I'd rate it a C

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4 minutes ago, SoFlaJets said:

I just used the 2005 draft as an example because every year it's the same thing. I'll bet you we can find a half dozen examples of people saying the same thing about last years class of 10 players who between them missed 53 games to injury and just plain being crappy picks. Right now I'd rate it a C

I wanted Thibs and Linderbaum but Sauce and Jermaine Johnson is really hard to argue against.  I think Wilson has a chance to be a good posession receiver.  Yes, he's from Ohio State but he can actually run routes unlike Devin Smith

 

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Have to agree with Mcdonald.  If you trade up and get the guy you want, and he works out for you, its hard to call it a bad trade, even if you give up more "points" than the chart shows.

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3 minutes ago, Lith said:

 

Exactly this. You watch the guys on the major networks wax poetic about guys in the sixth seventh round as if they're all going to be superstars so when someone trades the chance to take one they process it emotionally as a wasted opportunity. It clouds their judgement.

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5 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

Exactly this. You watch the guys on the major networks wax poetic about guys in the sixth seventh round as if they're all going to be superstars so when someone trades the chance to take one they process it emotionally as a wasted opportunity. It clouds their judgement.

Also, JD dumped round 5-7 picks on purpose.  The 90 man roster did not need that many players this season.   

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1 hour ago, Dwight Englewood said:

I disagree with the opinion that it was a "below average" draft.  However, how many times in the past 10-12 years did our drafts get praised and less than 3 years later the GM was fired and pretty much the entire class was out of the NFL?

I think a lot of that was because they were purely lock & key (e.g. "The Jets needed a WR and got value on one in round 2"), or the opposite in pure BAP (e.g. "The Jets may have gotten the best overall player in the draft at #6"), rather than a healthy combo of the two. 

Also there's a difference between tepid good job sort of praise and wowz, with the draft class's top (or top 2-3 at worst) prospects at 5 different positions: CB, WR, EDGE, RB, and TE -- and all of them areas the team needed to upgrade (TE being the least urgent, but he was also the last pick of the 5, at the end of round 3).

That's without even accounting for round 4 with some OT depth/future and a potential C.Lawson replacement or rotational edge rusher even if Lawson bounced back & JJ is what they hope opposite him. 17 games plus the playoffs (which we haven't counted in over a decade) is a long season.

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1 hour ago, Dwight Englewood said:

I wanted Thibs and Linderbaum but Sauce and Jermaine Johnson is really hard to argue against.  I think Wilson has a chance to be a good posession receiver.  Yes, he's from Ohio State but he can actually run routes unlike Devin Smith

 

I mean right now, on paper this really   looks like a good haul and completely could change the make up of the team. The only kicker is, can they stay healthy, can they play football like they seem to be able to do 

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On 5/2/2022 at 1:52 PM, Doggin94it said:

 

More likely than the Jets, I think the "not as good a draft in hindsight" may belong to the other purported winner, Baltimore, who are getting slurped off.

Which of these can't possibly be true?

  • Their new safety may be too slow
  • They merely swapped one good starting center for a new one that cost a 1st round pick, doesn't tangibly translate to any additional wins, and was possibly a big regret after seeing how little Bozeman got in FA (though they'd never admit it).
  • That pick itself cost the team their only 1000-yard WR, and they replaced him with...nobody opposite Bateman. Their 4th round WR  from last year caught 2 passes.
  • Their 2nd round edge rusher may never be the quite same as he was once expected to be following Achilles surgery.
  • The day 2 DT is just a rotational 1-2 down player
  • They drafted an OT that weighs as much as Becton after raiding the Ben & Jerry's factory, and may not maintain weight he may have lost just for the combine, or even just pan out as a pro in general
  • And broadly in round 4 maybe got a bunch of depth and no real killer starters, where the punter might end up the best of the bunch

I know less than most about these guys, so I'm just lofting stuff out there, and they may very well have drafted 4-5 starters themselves. But they're getting a lot of praise for drafting 2 players who had the inside runs at being top 10 picks and team after team decided no thanks, not with picks this early, plus another fast-twitch rusher who's had his first major tendon injury before stepping onto an NFL field.

I like our draft better :)

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53 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

I get his point. Generally speaking, trading down is better than trading up, especially for a running back. But there's a lot cutting against that. For one thing, we had a ton of capital--we didn't trade away a bunch of future picks; we just spent the ones we'd accumulated. We started the draft with four picks in the first and second, and came away from those rounds with...four players. For another, the Jets are ******* terrible (If we did a leaguewide draft of current NFL players, how long would it take to get to the first Jet?). Getting a bunch of depth guys in the 4th and lottery tickets in the 6th doesn't do much for us. Most importantly, if the Jets want to have any hope of being even halfway decent in the next 2-3 years, Zach has to get good, and fast, so you pay a premium on a running back you think can be an immediate difference-maker. It's not a viable strategy if you do it every year (hello, Mike Tannenbaum and Ryan Pace), but at some point you just have to get some guys who can actually play.

The trade up for Breece combined with signing both Uzomah and Conklin = clearest indicators JD is feeling a sense of urgency with Zach Wilson. 

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5 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Seems like the rest of the bunch @ PFF - Monson, Palazollo [yea that's not the correct spelling], Renner & Gayle - all had high praise for the Jets despite our 'violations' of their tentpole theories (never trade up, don't take RB's early).

Doesn't surprise me that the guy I don't usually hear from on PFF has the spiciest take. New guy wants his name to ring out.  

Sam and Steve probably do a better job of understanding team building, scheme fit etc while also factoring position value and all the analytics. Sam can be a bit over the top though. Steve Palazzolo’s opinion is probably the only one I take serious.

The pure analytics guys. Not sure if those guys even watch football. They just look a numbers and make bets.

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2 hours ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

The trade up for Breece combined with signing both Uzomah and Conklin = clearest indicators JD is feeling a sense of urgency with Zach Wilson. 

Why 'urgency'? Why not just prudent planning? We had little to no TE talent so signing two and drafting one isn't that puzzling. We had one good young RB and a bunch of filler otherwise. Now we have a one two punch to keep both fresh and not have a lapse in production when one goes out. Those moves of course help the QB, but those moves would help any QB. We aren't used to having a rational player at GM so it seems like desperation to add talent around your second year QB, but it's just common sense. Instead heart broken Jets fans sound an alarm. lol

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