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@PFF_George: Jets had a below average draft


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4 hours ago, slats said:

Jet fans love their OL, and they love AVT, but that was not a good trade. I’m okay with anything that turns okay in the end but, he’s right, that was bad process there. 

JD really wanted AVT, a player who should/will be a cornerstone of our O-line for the next decade.

Why was it a bad trade?

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2 minutes ago, Warfish said:

JD really wanted AVT, a player who should/will be a cornerstone of our O-line for the next decade.

Why was it a bad trade?

I don’t want to harp on it, because I’m perfectly content as long as it works out (and it seems to be). But taking a guard in the top half of the first round is already a poor value decision, trading two third round picks to get there in the first place makes it significantly worse. It’s in the same vein as trading up for a RB in the second, it’s all to help the young QB, but the RB is much more help for much less. Especially if Hall is the stud his tape and testing suggest he will be. Starting caliber guards can be had in free agency. We got a good one this year. 

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1 minute ago, slats said:

I don’t want to harp on it, because I’m perfectly content as long as it works out (and it seems to be). But taking a guard in the top half of the first round is already a poor value decision, trading two third round picks to get there in the first place makes it significantly worse. It’s in the same vein as trading up for a RB in the second, it’s all to help the young QB, but the RB is much more help for much less. Especially if Hall is the stud his tape and testing suggest he will be. Starting caliber guards can be had in free agency. We got a good one this year. 

AVG has a few things going for him that those free agent available guards don't (and added context, we tried signing a few last year, and they all went for big money)

1. Young
2. Doesn't cost a lot
3. Plays multiple positions.

The total value lost was around a 4th round pick. I think it's worth it.

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Analytics don't always weigh context. As in: any (well run) NFL GM and his minions are looking at the draft, the following years draft, and the possible picks and cuts from all the other rosters as well as their own. So, for example, if the Jets had sat in the second round at their slot, and Hall had been picked by some other team, and then they picked another RB, would they be graded even worse because the other team acted in a fashion that reflected poor value for them as well? Does the grading system take into account that the plan inside the building is to use a two back system, and that Hall represented higher value because of how he fits? Does drafting the best WR available account for the better value of getting a younger player on a rookie contract vs. shelling out big bucks for an older veteran? 

I doubt their system takes any teams plans or needs into account, and so it a limited two dimensional look at value.

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I’m not crazy about drafting RB’s high either or trading up for one but you have  to use some context which these PFF nerds never do in that you want to give your young QB as many weapons as possible.

Jets now have a back who can be effective in the redzone and also is a threat to catch the ball.

Also apparently he did no research on the Jets if he thinks we have holes everywhere.

Lastly if he thinks QB’s can’t bounce back off a bad rookie season why didn’t he tell the Bears to draft Willis?

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

AVG has a few things going for him that those free agent available guards don't (and added context, we tried signing a few last year, and they all went for big money)

1. Young
2. Doesn't cost a lot
3. Plays multiple positions.

The total value lost was around a 4th round pick. I think it's worth it.

How was the total value lost possibly a fourth round pick when he traded two third round picks to move up?!? 
 
He’s inexpensive as a rookie, but really not so much for an average starting guard. And that goes out the window if he plays well. As a first round pick, he’ll be looking at Scherff money with his next deal. Jets can fifth year option him then tag him, and that gets pricey, too. It’s a low value position that they paid, and will pay, a lot for. 
 
Cool, lots of OL play multiple spots on the line. 
 
I don’t have a major issue with it, he’s a Jet now and I’ll root for him. But I said it at the time the Jets drafted him that I didn’t like the trade, and that he’ll be difficult to sign to a second contract. That hasn’t changed. 

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1 minute ago, slats said:

How was the total value lost possibly a fourth round pick when he traded two third round picks to move up?!? 
 
He’s inexpensive as a rookie, but really not so much for an average starting guard. And that goes out the window if he plays well. As a first round pick, he’ll be looking at Scherff money with his next deal. Jets can fifth year option him then tag him, and that gets pricey, too. It’s a low value position that they paid, and will pay, a lot for. 
 
Cool, lots of OL play multiple spots on the line. 
 
I don’t have a major issue with it, he’s a Jet now and I’ll root for him. But I said it at the time the Jets drafted him that I didn’t like the trade, and that he’ll be difficult to sign to a second contract. That hasn’t changed. 

Because we got a pick back. Someone posted the value chart a few pages ago.

If he's really good next year, his next deal won't come for a while anyway. 

Not many of them can play tackle well, too.

If you don't have a major issue with it, you're just being difficult for no reason. Just cause you said it at the time, doesn't mean you have to die on this hill. If he's difficult to sign a second contract, we can replace him. In the meantime, we have 5 cheaper years with him than an old ass out of prime Scherff. 

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1 minute ago, Tranquilo said:

If you don't have a major issue with it, you're just being difficult for no reason. Just cause you said it at the time, doesn't mean you have to die on this hill. If he's difficult to sign a second contract, we can replace him. In the meantime, we have 5 cheaper years with him than an old ass out of prime Scherff. 

I’m not dying on a hill. I’m sitting in a lounge chair, drinking tequila, responding to all your queries. 
 
Also, the Jets traded two third rounders, one of them at the top of the round, and got the very last fourth round pick in exchange. I’m not bothering with the math right now, but that sucked for a ****ing guard. 

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30 minutes ago, slats said:

I don’t want to harp on it

I understand, I just want to better understand this type of mindset.

30 minutes ago, slats said:

, because I’m perfectly content as long as it works out (and it seems to be). But taking a guard in the top half of the first round is already a poor value decision, trading two third round picks to get there in the first place makes it significantly worse.

Value defined in this case as.....?

30 minutes ago, slats said:

It’s in the same vein as trading up for a RB in the second, it’s all to help the young QB, but the RB is much more help for much less. Especially if Hall is the stud his tape and testing suggest he will be. Starting caliber guards can be had in free agency. We got a good one this year. 

So we could have just found as good as Guard as AVT in Free Agency, easy peasy.  Ignore all the FA linemen we signed or drafted late who sucked up the joint.

And we should have not traded up and instead drafted....who would the "value" choice have been then at our original pick(s)?

 

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22 hours ago, GreenFish said:

Sam and Steve probably do a better job of understanding team building, scheme fit etc while also factoring position value and all the analytics. Sam can be a bit over the top though. Steve Palazzolo’s opinion is probably the only one I take serious.

The pure analytics guys. Not sure if those guys even watch football. They just look a numbers and make bets.

Yeah that guy Eric Eager admitted he doesn’t watch tape but bases all his draft takes in those stupid charts 

George clearly doesn’t know who’s on the Jets roster if he thinks we have holes everywhere 

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25 minutes ago, AdrianMurrel said:

Yeah that guy Eric Eager admitted he doesn’t watch take but basis all his draft takes in those stupid charts 

George clearly doesn’t know who’s on the Jets roster if he thinks we have holes everywhere 

Doesnt surprise me that he admitted that. 😂 I listen every now and then to the PFF Forecast podcast and I’m like - do these guys even watch football? They love betting more than anything.

There are really 3 areas of PFF. Guys like Mike Renner do less analytics and more actual scouting. George and Eric are basically trying to figure out what are the best bets to make (ie looking at spreads etc). Then you have a guy like Steve Palazzolo who has a more generic role. Steve thought the Breece Hall pick was fine. “PFF” gave us an A- grade for our draft. That’s likely heavily influenced by Mike Renner. George is probably kicking rocks somewhere.

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2 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Doesnt surprise me that he admitted that. 😂 I listen every now and then to the PFF Forecast podcast and I’m like - do these guys even watch football? They love betting more than anything.

There are really 3 areas of PFF. Guys like Mike Renner do less analytics and more actual scouting. George and Eric are basically trying to figure out what are the best bets to make (ie looking at spreads etc). Then you have a guy like Steve Palazzolo who has a more generic role. Steve thought the Breece Hall pick was fine. “PFF” gave us an A- grade for our draft. That’s likely heavily influenced by Mike Renner. George is probably kicking rocks somewhere.

Ian Hartitz is cool.

Think this is the only tweet he's had on this, other than fantasy related stuff:
 

 

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4 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Doesnt surprise me that he admitted that. 😂 I listen every now and then to the PFF Forecast podcast and I’m like - do these guys even watch football? They love betting more than anything.

There are really 3 areas of PFF. Guys like Mike Renner do less analytics and more actual scouting. George and Eric are basically trying to figure out what are the best bets to make (ie looking at spreads etc). Then you have a guy like Steve Palazzolo who has a more generic role. Steve thought the Breece Hall pick was fine. “PFF” gave us an A- grade for our draft. That’s likely heavily influenced by Mike Renner. George is probably kicking rocks somewhere.

Yep I don’t mind their show but it’s mostly for gambling purposes. To  try to act like  scouts because of charts they read is hillarious.

TBF to PFF everyone outside of those two liked the Jets draft.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, slats said:

I don’t want to harp on it, because I’m perfectly content as long as it works out (and it seems to be). But taking a guard in the top half of the first round is already a poor value decision, trading two third round picks to get there in the first place makes it significantly worse. It’s in the same vein as trading up for a RB in the second, it’s all to help the young QB, but the RB is much more help for much less. Especially if Hall is the stud his tape and testing suggest he will be. Starting caliber guards can be had in free agency. We got a good one this year. 

One thing about avt - can’t he also play tackle?  Let’s say becton flakes out again and there’s another injury somewhere at T.  Didn’t avt play well at LT at USC?  Couldn’t that have been part of the decision to target him, specifically b/c of his versatility?

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1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

One thing about avt - can’t he also play tackle?  Let’s say becton flakes out again and there’s another injury somewhere at T.  Didn’t avt play well at LT at USC?  Couldn’t that have been part of the decision to target him, specifically b/c of his versatility?

I’m not trying to be the anti-AVT guy here. I actually like the player, and the versatility you mention is a big reason why. I’m not someone who hates on a player because of the Jets “stupid” decision to draft them wherever. All I’m saying is that pick #14 is not a good value spot for a player you project as a guard. Trading two third rounders for that privilege makes it worse. The Vikings took their starting LT with the pick the Jets traded up from. And then they had two more third rounders to play with…
 
I’m primarily down with JD’s moves, especially this offseason, which I think he did really well. At the time of the pick, I wanted the exact players he took from pick #10 on down (gotta admit, Sauce threw me, but I already liked the idea of it). I’m all on board with trading up for Breece high round two even though the nerds think that was a poor value pick. Breece is a special talent who will help the young QB a lot more than even a great OG will, for the cost of a little less than Sam Darnold overall. I like this guy’s moves. Except that one, lol. It’s not a big deal. And again, I like AVT. I do. 

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2 hours ago, Bungaman said:

Analytics don't always weigh context.

I think this is why many, even those within the analytics community, have understood and praised the Jets regardless.

It's borderline banal to say "don't take a RB until day 3" at this point, and that's because it's so widely accepted that RB is devalued that even the filthy casuals understand.

But there are exceptions to every rule. And if I were JD, I'd argue both the situation (year 2 QB needs big jump) and the prospect (the closest athletic comps are very promising) dictate a break from conventional wisdom. 

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18 minutes ago, slats said:

I’m not trying to be the anti-AVT guy here. I actually like the player, and the versatility you mention is a big reason why. I’m not someone who hates on a player because of the Jets “stupid” decision to draft them wherever. All I’m saying is that pick #14 is not a good value spot for a player you project as a guard. Trading two third rounders for that privilege makes it worse. The Vikings took their starting LT with the pick the Jets traded up from. And then they had two more third rounders to play with…
 
I’m primarily down with JD’s moves, especially this offseason, which I think he did really well. At the time of the pick, I wanted the exact players he took from pick #10 on down (gotta admit, Sauce threw me, but I already liked the idea of it). I’m all on board with trading up for Breece high round two even though the nerds think that was a poor value pick. Breece is a special talent who will help the young QB a lot more than even a great OG will, for the cost of a little less than Sam Darnold overall. I like this guy’s moves. Except that one, lol. It’s not a big deal. And again, I like AVT. I do. 

I think douglas realized he went too cutesy by trading back in 2020 in round 2 and taking mims when he could have had claypool.  And in 2021 he traded up for avt and this year he traded up 2x to get guys he really wanted.  From a practical perspective, if the guy you trade up for pans out, you’re happy and it was worth the draft capital.  If avt plays 12 yrs at a high level that trade was fantastic.  And if breece hall has a great career with the jets, the only person who is going to ever care is the guy who thinks it was too much to give up an additional 5th round pick is the guy at pff who never has consequences based on how his team performs. 

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28 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

I think this is what many, even those within the analytics community, have understood and praised the Jets regardless.

It's borderline banal to say "don't take a RB until day 3" at this point, and that's because it's so widely accepted that RB is devalued that even the filthy casuals understand.

But there are exceptions to every rule. And if I were JD, I'd argue both the situation (year 2 QB needs big jump) and the prospect (the closest athletic comps are very promising) dictate a break from conventional wisdom. 

That's why I find it weird last that last year's  trade up for AVT was criticized. Like, the Jets needed to improve there OLine and there was no one else that was as a sure thing as AVT was. You could not get someone as cheap, young and capable on free agency to have such an effect on the team. 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, slats said:

I’m not trying to be the anti-AVT guy here. I actually like the player, and the versatility you mention is a big reason why. I’m not someone who hates on a player because of the Jets “stupid” decision to draft them wherever. All I’m saying is that pick #14 is not a good value spot for a player you project as a guard. Trading two third rounders for that privilege makes it worse. The Vikings took their starting LT with the pick the Jets traded up from. And then they had two more third rounders to play with…
 
I’m primarily down with JD’s moves, especially this offseason, which I think he did really well. At the time of the pick, I wanted the exact players he took from pick #10 on down (gotta admit, Sauce threw me, but I already liked the idea of it). I’m all on board with trading up for Breece high round two even though the nerds think that was a poor value pick. Breece is a special talent who will help the young QB a lot more than even a great OG will, for the cost of a little less than Sam Darnold overall. I like this guy’s moves. Except that one, lol. It’s not a big deal. And again, I like AVT. I do. 

In the Vacuum it's not. AVT was more important for the Jets than for any other team. 

It was absolutely necessary for the Jets to find someone cheap and ready to plug and play, in order to stabilise the unit. Two third rounds is something that I'll gladly pay for certainty in the position. 

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17 minutes ago, Gramsci said:

That's why I find it weird last that last year's  trade up for AVT was criticized. Like, the Jets needed to improve there OLine and there was no one else that was as a sure thing as AVT was. You could not get someone as cheap, young and capable on free agency to have such an effect on the team. 

 

 

The AVT move was more controversial than anything we did this year.

Trading up from 23 to pick 14 for a guard is an expensive price to pay for a non-premium position. 

I feel like that AVT trade-up has some legit criticism associated with it. 

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3 hours ago, Bronx said:

 

This is salt. That's all this is.

How the F can the "process be poor" if you selected good players? 

Is he really that butthurt that we gave up two 5th round picks that may or may not have even made the team? 

We got 4 premium starters, 1 future starter, and 2 depth players. 

Isnt that actually a smart allocation of resources? Not to mention securing a 5th year option on a 3rd 1st round selection? When we otherwise wouldnt have, if we selected another 2nd round player? 

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3 hours ago, Tranquilo said:

A stupid sentence with an even dumber video clip.

When analytics are misused. 

I've never seen someone get so many things wrong in a single 1 minute clip.

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14 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

The AVT move was more controversial than anything we did this year.

Trading up from 23 to pick 14 for a guard is an expensive price to pay for a non-premium position. 

I feel like that AVT trade-up has some legit criticism associated with it. 

It was a guard though that every draft analyst defined as a solid starter from day one with pro-bowl potential. The Jets with a Rookie QB, had to solidify the unit. 

I think that the whole lack of nuance surrounding the analysis of the trade, by ignoring anything but positional value will always lead to a incomplete assessment. 

 

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Again, not sure why this bothers anybody.  

These PFF nerds are grading the process.   Can't grade the players yet, no matter how excited everybody is about how many "starters" we drafted.

AVT didn't play as well as you all think but I am hopeful he will be a cornerstone.    They traded #23 (760 points) #66 (260) and #86 (160) for #14 (1100) and #143.(34.5).  AVT is a guard.  The fact that he can be a crappy tackle is not that big a deal.  He can play multiple positions?  How many positions could the guys we'd have drafted at 23, 66 and 86 have played?

You trade up and you can't miss.  Hit your targets and you are fine.  I don't have a problem with trusting the scouting, especially with all the extra picks we had.  Still, as a process it isn't something you want to continually be doing.  That is what pff is saying and why you all hate Mike T.

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7 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Again, not sure why this bothers anybody.  

These PFF nerds are grading the process.   Can't grade the players yet, no matter how excited everybody is about how many "starters" we drafted.

AVT didn't play as well as you all think but I am hopeful he will be a cornerstone.    They traded #23 (760 points) #66 (260) and #86 (160) for #14 (1100) and #143.(34.5).  AVT is a guard.  The fact that he can be a crappy tackle is not that big a deal.  He can play multiple positions?  How many positions could the guys we'd have drafted at 23, 66 and 86 have played?

You trade up and you can't miss.  Hit your targets and you are fine.  I don't have a problem with trusting the scouting, especially with all the extra picks we had.  Still, as a process it isn't something you want to continually be doing.  That is what pff is saying and why you all hate Mike T.

But, extra picks part provides more context. The Jets still made 10 picks in 2021 and 7 more picks this year. They’re not trading up and losing players in the process. This year they consolidated and made their picks in the top half of the draft. If they were trading up and coming away from the draft with like 4 players, I’d see that argument. 

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7 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Again, not sure why this bothers anybody.  

These PFF nerds are grading the process.   Can't grade the players yet, no matter how excited everybody is about how many "starters" we drafted.

AVT didn't play as well as you all think but I am hopeful he will be a cornerstone.    They traded #23 (760 points) #66 (260) and #86 (160) for #14 (1100) and #143.(34.5).  AVT is a guard.  The fact that he can be a crappy tackle is not that big a deal.  He can play multiple positions?  How many positions could the guys we'd have drafted at 23, 66 and 86 have played?

You trade up and you can't miss.  Hit your targets and you are fine.  I don't have a problem with trusting the scouting, especially with all the extra picks we had.  Still, as a process it isn't something you want to continually be doing.  That is what pff is saying and why you all hate Mike T.

Mike T traded up and left us with a minimal number of picks.
Joe Douglas trades up and we still have an ample number of picks.

Nothing alike,

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5 minutes ago, Tranquilo said:

But, extra picks part provides more context. The Jets still made 10 picks in 2021 and 7 more picks this year. They’re not trading up and losing players in the process. This year they consolidated and made their picks in the top half of the draft. If they were trading up and coming away from the draft with like 4 players, I’d see that argument. 

 

3 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Mike T traded up and left us with a minimal number of picks.
Joe Douglas trades up and we still have an ample number of picks.

Nothing alike,

Once again.  They are grading the process.  He traded up and left us with less picks than he started with.   Not sure why that is a controversial take or why you'd want to argue against that simple fact 

PFF likes the trade down.  as a process they find it superior. They probably liked moving down and ending up with Mims Morgan and Clark.  Was it the right move?  Obviously not but kind of tough to whine about.

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Just now, #27TheDominator said:

 

Once again.  They are grading the process.  He traded up and left us with less picks than he started with.   Not sure why that is a controversial take or why you'd want to argue against that simple fact 

PFF likes the trade down.  as a process they find it superior. They probably liked moving down and ending up with Mims Morgan and Clark.  Was it the right move?  Obviously not but kind of tough to whine about.

I will generally snarl at any argument backed up by PFF's biased crap.

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25 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

 

Once again.  They are grading the process.  He traded up and left us with less picks than he started with.   Not sure why that is a controversial take or why you'd want to argue against that simple fact 

PFF likes the trade down.  as a process they find it superior. They probably liked moving down and ending up with Mims Morgan and Clark.  Was it the right move?  Obviously not but kind of tough to whine about.

These dudes are the outliers at PFF. Mostly everyone else at PFF say the Jets had a good draft. They’re misunderstanding the process. Trading down is not the only thing that matters in the process. And in fact, if you watch the video, you’d see that he also had issue with who they picked. So more than just process. Anyway, like I said, they’re outliers. 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2022-nfl-draft-grades#NYJ

 

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4 hours ago, slats said:

I don’t want to harp on it, because I’m perfectly content as long as it works out (and it seems to be). But taking a guard in the top half of the first round is already a poor value decision, trading two third round picks to get there in the first place makes it significantly worse. It’s in the same vein as trading up for a RB in the second, it’s all to help the young QB, but the RB is much more help for much less. Especially if Hall is the stud his tape and testing suggest he will be. Starting caliber guards can be had in free agency. We got a good one this year. 

The problem I have with positional value is that it’s not factoring the actual player. It speaks too much in generalities. Is Dereck Henry worth a 2nd round pick? Is the Colts pick of Quenton Nelson a bad pick? Is the Colts pick in the 2nd of Jonathan Taylor a bad pick?

It’s more a risk/reward debate. If you take a RB in the 2nd, in order for it to be worth it, he needs to be a top 5 RB. Same with guard in the 1st. The position makes riskier that you’re going to get the most value. But a top 5 guard is more valuable than a swing tackle. So how you project players matters. Breece Hall projects as a top 5 RB in this league.

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