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Breer On Jet Moves


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1 hour ago, Larz said:

Yup. Maccagnans approach of separating the coaching staff from the acquisition of players was bizarre. 

Especially with a veteran coach like Gase, whom he was supposedly a big fan of hiring. 

Why bring in a veteran coach if you aren't going to let him pick some of the groceries? That whole thing was a mess from the start. 

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One minor potential criticism of JD approach to draft.
 

its interesting to think that if JD sat pat it could have gone two different ways:

#4 sauce

#10 wilson

#35 Hall

#38 best DE available / trade down for more picks 

or

#4. Sauce

#10 JJ

#35 Hall

#38 Best WR available / trade down for more picks 

plus we would have kept our 2 other picks. 
 

He still would have still gotten 3 out of 4 of his top prospects with 2+ additional picks if he didn’t trade up

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2 hours ago, section314 said:

The most telling and positive nugget from this has to be that JD and Saleh are so in sync with each other and are truly on the same page of how they want to continue to build this thing. Contrast this to the toxic culture Macc had with pretty much everyone in the building, culminating in his last draft where Gase basically left the war room. Good stuff.

To me, that fell squarely on Woody.  

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2 hours ago, section314 said:

Yeah. Weren't there stories out there that when Macc had the last pre draft meeting with the scouts to set up their final board, that he wouldn't let Gase attend?

IIRC, reportedly Mcc didn't want coaches influence in the ranking...Douglas got a high level of the type of player Gase wanted but nothing to the extent what has been done since Saleh as come aboard.

 

New York Jets GM Joe Douglas has a grading system for the NFL Draft (Report)

04/22/2020

When Joe Douglas took over as general manager of the New York Jets he immediately upgraded the team’s college scouting system.

According to Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News, Joe Douglas has brought a new prospect grading system to the New York Jets. The system is value-based rather than the traditional talent-based systems.

Mehta explains that the system isn’t based on the common grades by round. Instead, the players are given grades based on their value to the franchise. The Jets arrive at this value grade by judging talent, intangibles, and scheme fit. That way the Jets are drafting players who they feel are the most impactful left on their board.

The other major difference between Douglas and former Jets general manager Mike Maccagnan is their ability to collaborate with coaches. Maccagnan was known to disregard his coaches for the most part. He drafted the players that he liked and wanted his coaches to make it work. Douglas has his coaches a little differently.

According to Mehta, Douglas is strong in his convictions but listens to all opinions, preferences, and scheme fit suggestions. For example, if head coach Adam Gase wants a certain kind of receiver, then Douglas will go out and get that kind of receiver. It may not be the exact player Gase wanted, but he would fit the archetype.

This is exactly how a good general manager is supposed to draft. They are not independent of the coaches and they aren’t drafting solely on talent. Building a team is about collaboration. Great players will struggle in systems they don’t fit in, and worse players will overperform in the right system.

It’s all about marrying talent and scheme fit. So if Joe Douglas is willing to listen and get players who will succeed in Gase and Gregg Williams‘ systems, that’s a huge step forward for the Jets.

https://elitesportsny.com/2020/04/22/new-york-jets-news-joe-douglas-has-a-grading-system-for-the-nfl-draft/

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25 minutes ago, thshadow said:

I think what you're saying is that in total, we overpaid by about a late fifth round pick.  Because you're including *all* of the picks.

What many people do is try to figure out what the value of the 3's and the 5th are - which I guess is like a late 3.   So then, you can say it cost us a late 3 to move up from 35 to 26.

This actually is what I was saying! Thanks for explaining better than me.

@slats

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2 hours ago, Cyberjet said:

Yeah that caught my eye. Not sure what that was all about

Via Bob McGinn's Draft Report

 

4. JERMAINE JOHNSON, Florida State (6-4 ½, 260, 4.62, 1): Subpar academics sent him to a junior college for two years. Started four of 24 games at Georgia in 2019-’20 before transferring for a final season in Tallahassee. “Started the year playing his way into third-round conversation and at the end played his way possibly into the first,” one scout said. “Not as explosive or as athletic as (Joe) Tryon or (Azeez) Ojulari, who played over him at Georgia. He can power off the edge. He’s got get-off and flattens down on the quarterback. He can create pressure looping outside when aligned as a 3-technique in sub packages. He can improve his edge rush by developing a counter move once engaged and using his hands better. Best as a 3-4 outside backer.” Several scouts mentioned his father, someone they regard as overly involved and an impediment. “He is a low-confidence know-it-all that’s been pushed by his dad his entire life,” one scout after an interview with Johnson. “I see him as a fake tough guy.” Finished with 106 tackles (26 for loss), 18 ½ sacks (12 at FSU), three forced fumbles and four passes defensed. Wonderlic of 15. Arms were 34. “The surprising thing was he was very good against the run,” a third scout said. “I almost thought he played the run better than he rushed the passer. He’s got exceptional hands and hand usage at the point of attack. That’s what grabbed me the most about him. The sacks came off hustle. He had some where he earned them going around the guy. He’s not a natural bend-the-corner right end but he’s good enough to do it … they called him ‘Hollywood.’ He’s a little arrogant. He’s probably hard to like at times. But he backed up everything he said he wanted to do, which is rare in this era.” From Eden Prairie, Minn.

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33 minutes ago, thshadow said:

I think what you're saying is that in total, we overpaid by about a late fifth round pick.  Because you're including *all* of the picks.

What many people do is try to figure out what the value of the 3's and the 5th are - which I guess is like a late 3.   So then, you can say it cost us a late 3 to move up from 35 to 26.

Why wouldn’t I include all of the picks? 

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2 hours ago, derp said:

I believe the difference between the third round picks alone was worth a third rounder - mid third on the Jimmy Johnson chart, very late third on the Rich Hill chart.

On the Jimmy Johnson chart, the difference between 26 and 35 is 150 points (late-third round value, pick 88) and the difference between 69 and 101 is 149 points. In other words, the value lost in the move back from 69 to 155 is equivalent to the value gained in the move up from 35 to 26. What we lost (and according to the Johnson chart overpaid by) was a 5th round pick.

On the Rich Hill chart, the difference between 26 and 35 is 53 points (mid-third, pick 82.5) and the difference between 69 and 101 is 35 points (very late 3rd, pick 102). On the Rich Hill chart, we actually gained 18 points in value by those paired moves, and 163 (9 points) wasn't enough to make up for it.

Either way, what we gave up was the ability to draft an extra player in the fifth round; the value of moving up to 26 from 35 either exactly offset (JJ) or more than offset (Hill) the loss in value of moving down from 69 to 101.

Or, to put it in more concrete terms, what we got was "Johnson and Ruckert" for "player of our choice between picks 38 and 68, plus player of our choice between picks 69 and 162, and player of our choice between 163 and the end of the draft". (I say 38-68 because it's pretty clear that if we'd stuck at 35 we'd have taken Hall over McCreary or Pitre.

I imagine that would have looked something like Ebiketie/Mafe at 38, and then I have no clue at 69 and 163 

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they still gotta show something on the field.  we've seen lots of highly rated players come through the door and fail either because they get injured or just aren't as good as advertised.  right now i'm thinking douglas knows what he was doing and this has been one of those rare really good jet drafts.

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3 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

On the Jimmy Johnson chart, the difference between 26 and 35 is 150 points (late-third round value, pick 88) and the difference between 69 and 101 is 149 points. In other words, the value lost in the move back from 69 to 155 is equivalent to the value gained in the move up from 35 to 26. What we lost (and according to the Johnson chart overpaid by) was a 5th round pick.

On the Rich Hill chart, the difference between 26 and 35 is 53 points (mid-third, pick 82.5) and the difference between 69 and 101 is 35 points (very late 3rd, pick 102). On the Rich Hill chart, we actually gained 18 points in value by those paired moves, and 163 (9 points) wasn't enough to make up for it.

Either way, what we gave up was the ability to draft an extra player in the fifth round; the value of moving up to 26 from 35 either exactly offset (JJ) or more than offset (Hill) the loss in value of moving down from 69 to 101.

Or, to put it in more concrete terms, what we got was "Johnson and Ruckert" for "player of our choice between picks 38 and 68, plus player of our choice between picks 69 and 162, and player of our choice between 163 and the end of the draft". (I say 38-68 because it's pretty clear that if we'd stuck at 35 we'd have taken Hall over McCreary or Pitre.

I imagine that would have looked something like Ebiketie/Mafe at 38, and then I have no clue at 69 and 163 

I think you can make an argument that JD didn’t have to trade up. Let’s assume the Jets didn’t trade up for JJ.

#4 Sauce 

#10 Wilson

#35 Hall (they got him at #36)

#38 Ojabo (DE)

#69 Petit- Frere OT

#111 Ruckert

#117 Clemons

#146 ?

#163

 

That’s a haul. You can put in anybody else you want at at #38 and #69, but I think they should not have traded up - the old don’t fall in love with a prospect trap. They needed numbers for more depth. That being said it was still a very good draft. 

 

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35 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

I think you can make an argument that JD didn’t have to trade up. Let’s assume the Jets didn’t trade up for JJ.

#4 Sauce 

#10 Wilson

#35 Hall (they got him at #36)

#38 Ojabo (DE)

#69 Petit- Frere OT

#111 Ruckert

#117 Clemons

#146 ?

#163

 

That’s a haul. You can put in anybody else you want at at #38 and #69, but I think they should not have traded up - the old don’t fall in love with a prospect trap. They needed numbers for more depth. That being said it was still a very good draft. 

 

  1. You may not agree, but the Jets likely had JJ graded a full round higher than Ojabo - and I'm not giving up that much better of an edge defender (a decades-long need for us) so that my developmental swing OT might be a little better than Mitchell - assuming, like you seem to be, that the Jets had Petit-Frere rated higher for their offensive system.  
  2. We got Ruckert at 101, and you're making a huge assumption that he would have been there at 111.  It's entirely possible that JD would have taken Ruckert at 69 in your scenario, and ended up with the same draft, except for Ojabo and a couple of 5th rounders instead of JJ - which is a big loss.
  3. It's easy to play Monday morning QB with the draft, knowing what everyone knows now about how things fell.  JD had to make the best decisions at the time, and at the end of the day I'd still rather have his draft than yours.
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41 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

On the Jimmy Johnson chart, the difference between 26 and 35 is 150 points (late-third round value, pick 88) and the difference between 69 and 101 is 149 points. In other words, the value lost in the move back from 69 to 155 is equivalent to the value gained in the move up from 35 to 26. What we lost (and according to the Johnson chart overpaid by) was a 5th round pick.

On the Rich Hill chart, the difference between 26 and 35 is 53 points (mid-third, pick 82.5) and the difference between 69 and 101 is 35 points (very late 3rd, pick 102). On the Rich Hill chart, we actually gained 18 points in value by those paired moves, and 163 (9 points) wasn't enough to make up for it.

Either way, what we gave up was the ability to draft an extra player in the fifth round; the value of moving up to 26 from 35 either exactly offset (JJ) or more than offset (Hill) the loss in value of moving down from 69 to 101.

Or, to put it in more concrete terms, what we got was "Johnson and Ruckert" for "player of our choice between picks 38 and 68, plus player of our choice between picks 69 and 162, and player of our choice between 163 and the end of the draft". (I say 38-68 because it's pretty clear that if we'd stuck at 35 we'd have taken Hall over McCreary or Pitre.

I imagine that would have looked something like Ebiketie/Mafe at 38, and then I have no clue at 69 and 163 

Yeah this is an accurate take. I don’t think “only gave up the value of a fifth round pick to move up” told the whole story.

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6 hours ago, KRL said:

Honestly, I would YouTube different pass-rush moves, watch and just practice it by myself. I just taught myself how to do it.’”

So the Jets traded third- and fifth-round picks to get him at 26,

It’s good that Douglas has put a premium on players who will simply teach themselves how to play football. 

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2 hours ago, C Mart said:

 

 

 

the players are given grades based on their value to the franchise. The Jets arrive at this value grade by judging talent, intangibles, and scheme fit. That way the Jets are drafting players who they feel are the most impactful left on their board.

 

This is such a great system IMO, much, much better than BPA. 

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1 hour ago, MykePM said:
  1. You may not agree, but the Jets likely had JJ graded a full round higher than Ojabo - and I'm not giving up that much better of an edge defender (a decades-long need for us) so that my developmental swing OT might be a little better than Mitchell - assuming, like you seem to be, that the Jets had Petit-Frere rated higher for their offensive system.  
  2. We got Ruckert at 101, and you're making a huge assumption that he would have been there at 111.  It's entirely possible that JD would have taken Ruckert at 69 in your scenario, and ended up with the same draft, except for Ojabo and a couple of 5th rounders instead of JJ - which is a big loss.
  3. It's easy to play Monday morning QB with the draft, knowing what everyone knows now about how things fell.  JD had to make the best decisions at the time, and at the end of the day I'd still rather have his draft than yours.

I’m not playing Monday QB like those that go back a year later and point out who the Jets passed over. It’s obvious  that the Jets valued JJ much higher than other teams. In fact I’ll go a step further - if JJ makes it JD and the Jets scouting dept are good if he busts you have to question their assessment skills and their “need” to give up draft capital. How do we know JJ wouldn’t last to #35? Unlikely but possible. To me JJ is the litmus test of the Jets draft along with Hall. If you trade up and give up draft capital on a team that needs depth you better not bust. 
 

the draft is always a bit of a crap shoot. To me the more swings you take the more hits you make. Having to move up to get Hall at 36 was all on JD for giving up #35 to get Johnson and in the process give up two additional draft picks. In general I don’t like trading up - I like staying put and have things fall their way. If they stay put they get Sauce Wilson and Hall. Is JJ worth giving up two draft picks? (2 because they had to go up and get Hall after losing their #35 for JJ

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2 hours ago, PS17 said:

This report of JJ being arrogant is surprising. In his brief interviews he’s come across as very likable and humble. Shrug.

Doesn’t mean it was a good scout 😀

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8 hours ago, KRL said:

But what you didn’t see was coach Robert Saleh, after passing off the phone with Wilson (and yelling “G-Dub!!!” to start that conversation), tap GM Joe Douglas on the shoulder.

“He’s like, ‘Hey look, if Jermaine [Johnson II] starts falling, let’s go get him,’” Douglas said Saturday afternoon. “And I looked at him and I’m like, ‘Let’s do it.’”

That’s how the Jets turned a draft they already really liked into one they loved.

General Manager Smile GIF by New York JetsFootball Smile GIF by New York Jets

Marry Me Wedding GIF by NeighborlyNotary®Happy Four Weddings GIF by TLC

 

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9 hours ago, slats said:

Just like to point out that the Jets got a late third rounder back in that trade, the one that netted Jeremy Ruckert. This makes it sound like they gave up a lot more to get him. In reality, the cost according to the draft pick trade chart was a mid-fifth rounder. 

I think Ruckert is maybe the highest value pick the Jets made. I think he is going to be one of those players that in 3 years people will wonder how he fell.

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2 hours ago, Cyberjet said:

I’m not playing Monday QB like those that go back a year later and point out who the Jets passed over. It’s obvious  that the Jets valued JJ much higher than other teams. In fact I’ll go a step further - if JJ makes it JD and the Jets scouting dept are good if he busts you have to question their assessment skills and their “need” to give up draft capital. How do we know JJ wouldn’t last to #35? Unlikely but possible. To me JJ is the litmus test of the Jets draft along with Hall. If you trade up and give up draft capital on a team that needs depth you better not bust. 
 

the draft is always a bit of a crap shoot. To me the more swings you take the more hits you make. Having to move up to get Hall at 36 was all on JD for giving up #35 to get Johnson and in the process give up two additional draft picks. In general I don’t like trading up - I like staying put and have things fall their way. If they stay put they get Sauce Wilson and Hall. Is JJ worth giving up two draft picks? (2 because they had to go up and get Hall after losing their #35 for JJ

This is the PFF way of thinking. I am not sure I agree with it. If you have a Top 8 grade on JJ the trades make sense whether he works out or not. If he doesn't you use it to adjust your evaluation system in the future. Draft value is seriously overvalued IMO. All that matters is if he succeeds. I think this emphasis on draft value is part of why drafts fail. You pass on high hit percentage players for risky players with higher projections because "we should not take player x at this spot based on value"

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2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

This is the PFF way of thinking. I am not sure I agree with it. If you have a Top 8 grade on JJ the trades make sense whether he works out or not. If he doesn't you use it to adjust your evaluation system in the future. Draft value is seriously overvalued IMO. All that matters is if he succeeds. I think this emphasis on draft value is part of why drafts fail. You pass on high hit percentage players for risky players with higher projections because "we should not take player x at this spot based on value"

I agree with you that JJ was high on their list which is why I feel that JJ like AVT ( which was a success) is a litmus test for their scouting. Other teams didn’t think that.

my point is that JD was aggressive. JJ was the focus of that aggression. It cost them to trade up for Hall because they gave up the #35 pick for JJ. If he wasn’t aggressive they still get Gardner Wilson and Hall ( taking the Ravens approach to the draft). Trading up for JJ ultimately cost the Jets two draft picks. 
 

Approaching the draft like the Ravens is  just another perspective. And I’m not sure the Jets would be any worse off maybe better.

That being said the Jets had a very good draft 

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2 hours ago, johnnysd said:

This is the PFF way of thinking. I am not sure I agree with it. If you have a Top 8 grade on JJ the trades make sense whether he works out or not. If he doesn't you use it to adjust your evaluation system in the future. Draft value is seriously overvalued IMO. All that matters is if he succeeds. I think this emphasis on draft value is part of why drafts fail. You pass on high hit percentage players for risky players with higher projections because "we should not take player x at this spot based on value"

I agree with the value bs. My point is not value - hell based on “value” JJ was a slam dunk. But you’re right it doesn’t matter if he was great value if he ends up being  a bust.  

I’m just commenting on staying pat vs trading up twice. I’m just not sure it would have made that much of a difference in the quality of the Jets draft.

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Another example is that the Jets tried to trade up into the first round to get Hall. In the end that “aggressive“ of a move was unnecessary since he was there at #36. My point is that sometimes you can be patient and the Jets in the Hall case read the board wrong thinking he would be gone by the end of the first round

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2 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

I agree with the value bs. My point is not value - hell based on “value” JJ was a slam dunk. But you’re right it doesn’t matter if he was great value if he ends up being  a bust.  

I’m just commenting on staying pat vs trading up twice. I’m just not sure it would have made that much of a difference in the quality of the Jets draft.

in this particular draft douglas had a ton of draft currency b/c of the adams and darnold trades, so he wasn’t interested in pure value from a pff standpoint.  He was intent on getting as many top guys on his board as possible at the positions he was targeting.  Trading a 5th and a 3rd or so to get breece and JJ seemed like a small price to pay to get 2 of his coveted guys - guys who he had 1st round grades on.  They still wound up with 7 draft picks, not 3 or 4 like tanny did.  

This was a unique drafting year b/c of those extra picks, so douglas used them to finally stock the offense with real weapons.  Going forward i would imagine the drafting philosophy will morph into more of a value-oriented where hopefully they won’t be so desperate and can capitalize on how the board breaks.

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I think what JD does if he has a highly ranked prospect that slips down 7 or 8 picks beyond his evaluation he starts thinking “trade up” because that prospect is higher than anyone else in his next ranked group. Other teams may say screw it - we’ll wait to see what falls to us 

 

i think I read that Hall was their #20 ranked prospect. How anybody knows that is anyone’s guess

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8 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

in this particular draft douglas had a ton of draft currency b/c of the adams and darnold trades, so he wasn’t interested in pure value from a pff standpoint.  He was intent on getting as many top guys on his board as possible at the positions he was targeting.  Trading a 5th and a 3rd or so to get breece and JJ seemed like a small price to pay to get 2 of his coveted guys - guys who he had 1st round grades on.  They still wound up with 7 draft picks, not 3 or 4 like tanny did.  

This was a unique drafting year b/c of those extra picks, so douglas used them to finally stock the offense with real weapons.  Going forward i would imagine the drafting philosophy will morph into more of a value-oriented where hopefully they won’t be so desperate and can capitalize on how the board breaks.

The JJ pick intrigues me the most because he fell like a rock in water in the first round indicating that many teams were not high on him. The Jets were pretty much on an island when it comes to belief in JJ’s talent. 

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12 hours ago, OilfieldJet said:

It would be fun to be a GM, all the calls, relationships, trade ups, trade backs…..what a blast.

I don't know about being fun...when you don't really have control of a situation or minimal control, for me I would need to have a supply of tranq's laying around.  Maybe it's just me.

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9 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Especially with a veteran coach like Gase, whom he was supposedly a big fan of hiring. 

Why bring in a veteran coach if you aren't going to let him pick some of the groceries? That whole thing was a mess from the start. 

Because the job of buying groceries isnt handed off due to seniority, its done for winners. 

Maybe

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9 hours ago, Cyberjet said:

One minor potential criticism of JD approach to draft.
 

its interesting to think that if JD sat pat it could have gone two different ways:

#4 sauce

#10 wilson

#35 Hall

#38 best DE available / trade down for more picks 

or

#4. Sauce

#10 JJ

#35 Hall

#38 Best WR available / trade down for more picks 

plus we would have kept our 2 other picks. 
 

He still would have still gotten 3 out of 4 of his top prospects with 2+ additional picks if he didn’t trade up

Except for the word is Hall would have been gone.

Theres no criticism for making sure you get the players you want over playing MMQB 

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9 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

The JJ pick intrigues me the most because he fell like a rock in water in the first round indicating that many teams were not high on him. The Jets were pretty much on an island when it comes to belief in JJ’s talent. 

Where was he predicted to go pre draft that this so called drop like a rock in water occurred?  

Most had him as the 4th EDGE to go.  While some had him as the top guy.  Who cares you dont draft because of what others think, you draft by what you and your scouts think.  You pay them, not other scouting staffs

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