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2022: Jets vs. Patriots


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People systematically underrate NEs talent.  Its been the same story since the 2007 team, where every year it was (oh its just Brady or Coaching, the rest of the guys are bad).  But then you look at who they had playing for them in hindsight, and you realize they were actually stacked.  They were just young players who werent known at the time.

I look at the 2022 patriots and I see a rather underrated O, but unlike previous years they have big question marks on D.  Their secondary was the best overall unit in the NFL for the past 3 years.  This year, I think they are at best middle of the pack, and maybe even a liability.  And that more than anything else is a problem for them.   M Jones is not going to win shootouts with teams.  That team is built for low to mid scoring grind a thon games.  If they cant cover I expect a few blowouts where the pundits go in hard about the prvious draft and so forth and im kinda hoping the pressure gets to M Jones.  

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1 hour ago, Hael said:

I look at the 2022 patriots and I see a rather underrated O, but unlike previous years they have big question marks on D.  Their secondary was the best overall unit in the NFL for the past 3 years.  This year, I think they are at best middle of the pack, and maybe even a liability.  And that more than anything else is a problem for them.   M Jones is not going to win shootouts with teams.  That team is built for low to mid scoring grind a thon games.  If they cant cover I expect a few blowouts where the pundits go in hard about the prvious draft and so forth and im kinda hoping the pressure gets to M Jones.  

Let’s not forget they lost their OC McDaniel which can weaken their offense. He really is  a pretty good play caller 

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8 hours ago, DepressedJetsFan23 said:

I’m hoping mcdaniels departure hurts them, we have all seen the lack of consistency for young qb’s hurt 

That’s the biggest amputation Belichek will feel

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They were 6 games better than the Jets last year and if the expectation is that Wilson will be better as a second year player, the same logic would seem to apply to Mac Jones. I need to see it on the field before I can say the Jets are equal to the Patriots. 

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To me, the Pats had one of the worst off-seasons of any team in the league.

First off, while Im sure BB is comfortable having Joe Judge and Matt Patricia around, what exactly are those guys going to be doing for Mac Jones and the rest of the team. Judge is a former special teams coach, now coaching offense and Patricia is basically a coaching consultant on both sides of the ball.  On top of that, they do not have an official OC and it sppears BB will have a big role in calling the offensive plays.  While he is of course a top 3 coach in history, I cant imagine that calling offensive plays will come easily or not affect him also influencing the defense.

As far as playmakers they took a guard in the first round which serves only to replace a good guard that they had in Shaq Mason.  They will trot out Damien Harris and Pierre Strong at RB with Henry/JuJu at TE and Davonte Parker as their #1 WR.  How is that offense scaring anyone at all?

Defensively Judon is their best player and he can rush the passer but outside of him there isnt much athleticism and the secondary will take a hit losing JC Jackson.

The Pats have traditionally won with coaching and mistake free football but without TB around to make everyone better I cant see how this team is very good unless Mac makes a huge leap and given his physical limitations it doesnt seem likely. 

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7 minutes ago, BCJet said:

To me, the Pats had one of the worst off-seasons of any team in the league.

First off, while Im sure BB is comfortable having Joe Judge and Matt Patricia around, what exactly are those guys going to be doing for Mac Jones and the rest of the team. Judge is a former special teams coach, now coaching offense and Patricia is basically a coaching consultant on both sides of the ball.  On top of that, they do not have an official OC and it sppears BB will have a big role in calling the offensive plays.  While he is of course a top 3 coach in history, I cant imagine that calling offensive plays will come easily or not affect him also influencing the defense.

As far as playmakers they took a guard in the first round which serves only to replace a good guard that they had in Shaq Mason.  They will trot out Damien Harris and Pierre Strong at RB with Henry/JuJu at TE and Davonte Parker as their #1 WR.  How is that offense scaring anyone at all?

Defensively Judon is their best player and he can rush the passer but outside of him there isnt much athleticism and the secondary will take a hit losing JC Jackson.

The Pats have traditionally won with coaching and mistake free football but without TB around to make everyone better I cant see how this team is very good unless Mac makes a huge leap and given his physical limitations it doesnt seem likely. 

11 wins.

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15 hours ago, Ben Had said:

It's not how good or bad they are...they scare every team they play and will until BB is gone. 

It's a real advantage...

 

The Bills didnt look scared in the WC game last year. 

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8 hours ago, Hael said:

People systematically underrate NEs talent.  Its been the same story since the 2007 team, where every year it was (oh its just Brady or Coaching, the rest of the guys are bad).  But then you look at who they had playing for them in hindsight, and you realize they were actually stacked.  They were just young players who werent known at the time.

I look at the 2022 patriots and I see a rather underrated O, but unlike previous years they have big question marks on D.  Their secondary was the best overall unit in the NFL for the past 3 years.  This year, I think they are at best middle of the pack, and maybe even a liability.  And that more than anything else is a problem for them.   M Jones is not going to win shootouts with teams.  That team is built for low to mid scoring grind a thon games.  If they cant cover I expect a few blowouts where the pundits go in hard about the prvious draft and so forth and im kinda hoping the pressure gets to M Jones.  

The Patriots D has been a tad overrated the past three seasons.   It has not been able to stop the run the past two seasons.  Especially, against good teams.  Brady's last season the team benefitted from an incredibly weak schedule.  That Bill has managed to keep the team in the Top 10 in points allowed is a credit to him.  

I agree with your points about the O being good and a need to win low scoring games.  The D is probably on the same level as it was a decade ago.  Okayish.  If Bill can keep the opponents to 20 points a game, then the Patriots should be all right.  Not Buffalo alright, but 8-10 wins alright

 

28 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

The Bills didnt look scared in the WC game last year. 

Maybe mildly concerned for about four minutes and five seconds and then Micah Hyde maybe an incredible play.

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11 hours ago, jetspenguin said:

Fug a split.....raise the Godd Damme bar...

I WANT A SWEEP.

Sent from the NY Jets /Zack Wilson Suicide Watch desk.
 

Went back and checked to see if we've ever had a sweep against the Pats since BB became HC of the NEP.  Surprisingly, we do have one (back in 2000).

Our most recent best run of success came between 2008 and 2011 when we won 4 of 6 against them.   Since then, we've gone 2-20 (and we're currently on a 12 game losing streak against them).

https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/new-york-jets/teamvsteam?opp=19

image.png.99a5e5b54ac5d9872422ee53b0f60f3b.png

 

image.png.247e24363078453dc54dfd1f761a1cba.png

 

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The Pats are a great measuring stick for this young team and they get to play them twice. That squad has been overachieving since Brady left so it’s absolutely within reason to say that the improvements the Jets have made have lapped the improvements the Pats have made. The games should be very competitive and unless Saleh or Zach absolutely sh*t the bed, there’s no reason the Jets can’t split with the Pats this year at least. I’d be really surprised if they sweep the Jets.

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So first two things need to be established:

1) They've beaten us 12 times in a row. 6 straight sweeps. Last time we beat them was when Marshall and Decker were killing it around here. Feels like a lifetime ago.

2) The last time we played them it was an absolute massacre. One of the worst defensive performances in Jets history.

So it's really hard to crow about how we're going to beat them in the offseason.

That said.... (puts on homer hat)

It very much feels like we're a team on the rise and they're a team on the decline. We've done well (seemingly) in back to back drafts while they've drafted poorly for quite some time. Brady masked it for a while, and BB is still one of the all time greats but they simply don't have an overly talented roster. After missing the playoffs they went on a free agent spending spree and were still in a rough spot where they couldn't stop the run and their offense was fairly limited in stretching the field/explosive plays.

The first game we played them wasn't close on the scoreboard because of Zach Wilson -- but we actually outgained them in yards per play. We moved the ball well, and our running game is a good matchup for their defense.

I'm not going to make any bold predictions here as much as make the argument that we should beat them this year. Maybe even twice. If Zach Wilson makes any kind of leap and demonstrates any baseline competence -- I think there's a very legitimate argument that we're the more talented team.

If we get swept again it's likely because of Wilson and/or Saleh, because outside of QB and HC there aren't many spots where I think they have major advantages over us.

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9 hours ago, carlito1171 said:

Ok, and when we somehow lose to BB again your handle will be "Sent from the Bill Belichick suicide desk" 

Im pumped for the season as well, but lets look at the outcome, we haven't beaten them since 2015, we're 0-4 since Brady left featuring blowout losses to the corpse of Cam Newton and the Pop gun kid from Bama. How about we get on base and get a single or double, instead of swinging for a grand slam, only to strikeout 

You pick your hill to die on, I'll pick mine.

I'm done just hoping for the bare minimum. Do I expect a sweep? No. ...........but I'm not going to say that the best I'm going to hope for is to only lose once. Aren't you sick and tired of "hoping to only lose once" to them?

If you are already thinking about striking out then you will never hit a homerun. Any team I'm on or root for needs to believe they will will them ALL otherwise why show up at the stadium with a losers mentality? You're not going to win them all but you better show up thinking you will. 

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47 minutes ago, PFSIKH said:

Maybe mildly concerned for about four minutes and five seconds and then Micah Hyde maybe an incredible play.

Still didn’t strike me as scared.  They hung 47 on the Pats and won by 30.  They were amused at best

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1 hour ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Went back and checked to see if we've ever had a sweep against the Pats since BB became HC of the NEP.  Surprisingly, we do have one (back in 2000).

Our most recent best run of success came between 2008 and 2011 when we won 4 of 6 against them.   Since then, we've gone 2-20 (and we're currently on a 12 game losing streak against them).

https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/new-york-jets/teamvsteam?opp=19

image.png.99a5e5b54ac5d9872422ee53b0f60f3b.png

 

image.png.247e24363078453dc54dfd1f761a1cba.png

 

I remember that..........lol it was back when my eyesight was good enough to enjoy it without having 4k....now I can barely see the buttons on the remote.

 

We are due.

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Here's what I noticed. Towards the end of the year the league had Jones figured out and he did not rise to the occasion. But long way for Jets to go too. They cannot take 6 games to gel as an OL and we need to have better fortune with injuries.

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Lots of good thoughts.

I think a way of balancing both sides is that the Pats have had a GM, Coach, QB, and Roster advantage over the past decade, if not longer.

This is the first time I feel we have an advantage on GM and Roster.  

Can this advantage offset their Hall of Fame Coaching advantage?  

I’d love to move QB from disadvantage to strong advantage this year.  Last year was not a fair comparison for obvious reasons.

If we can do that, and Saleh/staff prove to be very good coaches, then we overtake the Pats who won last year based on a tremendous coach/system, smart QB play that fit the system, and a pretty good roster that took a step back this year.

The last thing - an important caveat - is our propensity to get hurt at critical spots and throughout a roster with little depth.  Over the last 3 years!!  Our depth is now better across the board except at OT and LB.  We cannot have our QB, OTs, or LBs get hurt.  The depth is scary thin behind the latter 2 and very few teams thrive playing their backup QB.

 

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17 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

It shows how much an impact a Hall of Fame coach has.  Without him and his system, Jones most likely doesn't have that success.

My key point is that the Jets now have a better roster than the Pats on paper and this year's success will be driven largely by the Coaches & QB.  We essentially grabbed 4 players in a lot of scouts top 20 (not just the Jets top 20).   You know the positional rankings.  Add them to Wilson, AVT, and Moore last year and some very good FA pickups with strong PFF scores representative of better than average starters.  

At QB, Wilson needs to play a LOT better to catch up and surpass Jones, but it's clear to me the GM has gotten him the supporting cast so there really is no excuse.  

It's now up to the coaching staff to do the following:

1. Develop these players to fully realize their potential

2. Gameplan around their strengths and anticipate how others will gameplan around their weaknesses (we had no strengths last year and quite frankly were poor at in game adjustments)

3. Build a winning culture that is no longer intimidated by the Pats or any other team (road games will especially be telling)

As fans, it should be fun to watch and is much better than where we were last year: 

2021:  GM (?), Roster ('bad'), QB (rookie growing pains), Coach (rookie growing pains)

2022:  GM (✅), Roster ('competitive'), QB (?), Coach (?)

 

Just responding to the portion I made bold.

It's not just BB's system that guarantees success.  It also has a lot to do with his assistant coaches.  There the ones coaching and implementing the game plans.  Here's an example...Scarnecchia retired in 2013.  After that...the OL didn't play up to usual standards.  So Scarnecchia was coaxed back out of retirement.

https://www.nfl.com/news/longtime-pats-ol-coach-dante-scarnecchia-to-retire-0ap3000001099550

"Scarnecchia has been one of the best offensive line coaches in the NFL for years. After his return, he helped solidify a previously struggling O-line in front of Tom Brady, as the Pats won two additional Super Bowls following his return. "

Sure BB is a HOF coach.  But he has to rely on his CS to be of quality to implement the system at a high level in order to succeed.

Over those last few games of 2021 season...Matt Jones's play tailed off.  And that last game of season defeat in Foxboro...at the hands of the surging Dolphins.  Was a bit shocking.  Not just to me...but to Pats fans...and probably the Bills too.  That last game Jets played the Bills...who needed to win in order to seal the AFCE title over the Pats.  Who they assumed would win at Foxboro. They played that game like their hair was on fire...with an all out effort...like they were already in the playoffs.  Where...if you lose...you go home.  IMO...the Pats didn't play that way.  And when they played the Bills...in actual playoffs...they couldn't force them to punt once...is my recollection.   

What am I getting at?  Are the Pats in decline?  What will the Pats offense be like if in the hands of some other OC not named Josh McDaniels?  Who was one of the best OC's in the league for over a decade. Will the offense and Matt Jones take a step forward without McDaniels...or will they miss him?  How about Cole Strange in round one?  Strange indeed!  Many thought he'd be a 3rd round pick.  Does that be the pick if Scarnecchia and/or Josh McDaniels is there?  Maybe...maybe not.  BB does have the last say.  

To sum up...

Jets have the horses to compete with any team.  Coaching and game planning...as well as ZW's development...will play a big part in how much success Jets have this season.  Same goes for Pats and Matt Jones's development too.  We'll see how Jones develops and plays with someone else...as OC... doing the coaching and game planning.

I really like Jets chances against the Pats this year.  When the 2022 season unfolds...we'll find out who's on the rise...who's in decline.  You already know where I'm leaning...

Go Jets baby!

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5 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Still didn’t strike me as scared.  They hung 47 on the Pats and won by 30.  They were amused at best

That is fair.  

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10 hours ago, jetspenguin said:

You pick your hill to die on, I'll pick mine.

I'm done just hoping for the bare minimum. Do I expect a sweep? No. ...........but I'm not going to say that the best I'm going to hope for is to only lose once. Aren't you sick and tired of "hoping to only lose once" to them?

If you are already thinking about striking out then you will never hit a homerun. Any team I'm on or root for needs to believe they will will them ALL otherwise why show up at the stadium with a losers mentality? You're not going to win them all but you better show up thinking you will. 

Well 1st of all I don't play for the Jets lol....so whatever "losers mentality" because of how I view this team compared to the Pats has no bearing on the outcome. The actual Jets themselves that will take the field will believe they can win. That's all that matters

Sure I can be sick and tired of hoping to split all I want....it still doesn't make the process of being head and shoulders above them go any faster. 

Just because we picked 4-5 of the best rookies the draft had to offer doesn't automatically mean we start routing a HOF level coach and a team we are 0-12 against in the last 7 years LOL. It's a process. Im hopeful for the future but still a process. You want to walk before you crawl and that's fine, but the fact of the matter is that people have been declaring the pig ripe for slaughter for 8 years now and yet somehow BB keeps on ticking, and keeps finding a way to make the Jets look dumb. 

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