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The over/under for Jets wins in 2022 is still at 5.5!!


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4 hours ago, RVAJet815 said:

Vegas isn’t perfect. I believe they had the bengals at 5.5 this time last year. Not saying we’re the bengals, but even Vegas can miss the boat. 

5.5 is definitely too low for the Jets… 

As for Bengal, I bet Vegas made money on that line even though it was way too low.  That whole org was on the hot seat entering the year… so I think they probably collected a decent amount on the under before the lines rose.

Bengals had a ton of question marks about their roster, the health of their QB, and the strength of their division… very similar in some respects to the Jets

Of course, it was pretty clear from Burrow’s rookie season that he was already really good.

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15 hours ago, T0mShane said:

The league is about coaches and quarterbacks, and unless something radically changes for the two guys we got, they’re both lower-tier guys and that guarantees a lower-tier record. 

We don’t have a qb and we don’t have a functional head coach

 

until we get both Joe Douglas can continue to have all these critically acclaimed drafts

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21 hours ago, LongTimeJetFan said:

Where are the 6 wins coming from?

Let’s assume 

Wins:

2 out of 3 Home vs Jax, Chicago, Detroit. 

That means they will need to win a combination of 4 division games +
 

@ Cleveland, Green Bay, Seattle, Pittsburgh, Denver

Home vs Cincinnati and Baltimore 

5.5 is fair. If the season started today the Jets are likely to be favorites in 3 games and underdogs in 14. 
 

Not a lot is talked about how brutal the schedule is for Zach Wilson. All those defenses are going to be pretty good. 

So you don't think we will able to steal a couple of games from the elite teams? If they steal at least 2 games, they will get at least 6.

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22 hours ago, DoomProphet said:

Yes we may have the 2nd hardest schedule in the league (for a team coming off a 4 win season is a joke!) but with the improvements JD made to the roster, if the Jets can't get 6 wins out of 17 games then something is seriously wrong.

This team made significant improvements to the offense.  Their biggest weakness was an inability to protect Zach, making it harder to run the ball.   Adding Tomlinson, returning Becton and the growth in Vera-Tucker, we should be able to run the ball.  Nothing slows the pass rush better or moves the chains more consistently than a solid running attack.  That will help the defense a lot.    Fewer three and outs will give them more rest and keep them fresher late in the game.

I am guessing 6-7 wins.  If we shoe up the run defense and Zach makes a nice second year jump, we could surprise some teams.  

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20 hours ago, Facts said:

Part of me says that’s easy money.

The other part of me says “Vegas ain’t stupid. They know something”

Yep Vegas knows our QB is not proven yet and until he does something to change that we will be on the bad side of the over/under. If we traded for Aaron Rodgers this offseason our over under would be at least 10

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On 5/6/2022 at 4:14 PM, Alka said:

If you're right about this, then the Jets will be searching for a new QB after this season.  

honestly wilson can play well next year and we can still only win 4 or 5 games

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17 hours ago, neckdemon said:

honestly wilson can play well next year and we can still only win 4 or 5 games

Unless there is serious injuries again this year, I just don't see that as a possibility.

Our offensive weapons are double from last year, with a healthy Davis and now Wilson at wide receiver, 2 proven tight ends and a highly touted tight end from the draft, the best running back in the draft, and an immense upgrade at guard from free agency and a hopefully in shape and healthy Becton.  

If Wilson plays well next year, with the upgraded offense, I do not see under any circumstances where the Jets win 4 or 5 games.  The question is the defense in your scenario.  Will Carl Lawson be healthy and return to his pre abilities before injury?  Will Jermaine Lawson and the other edge rushers we got finally put pressure on the QB?  Will the newly formed backend of the defense be as good as is predicted, with Sauce and the other corner and safety and a hopefully healthy Joyner beck at safety?

Winning 4 or 5 games with Wilson playing well next year would be tragic, and it will not happen.  Only injuries and vastly overhyping the new players we got would allow your scenario to happen.  

If Wilson plays well, and the players are generally healthy, the Jets will in fact win 8 or 9 games this coming year.  But these are "ifs", and when it comes down to the "ifs", the Jets seem to always fall short, at least when it comes to recent history.

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I realize I am a Gotham Green colored glasses sort of optimistic fan but assuming we stay healthy I see this roster being solidly playoff caliber. We play in a hard division and a hard conference but we have added so much talent it's ridiculous. At TE alone we went from worst group in the NFL to at minimum a Top 10 group. RBs project super well into the NFL and we fixed the RG spot. Our #1 CB is now #3 and our EDGE is significantly upgraded. We should easily be Top 12-15 in offense and Top 15-20 in defense and possibly much better. It is something no one especially yhe media will notice until we start winning.

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On 5/7/2022 at 7:26 AM, Dwight Englewood said:

Still no qb and the head coach stinks 

Zac Taylor (offensive minded hc) Bengals 2019: 2-14 30th in nfl with 17.4 ppg. Zach Wilson is a bit concerning, but what he has to learn is correctable (short throw touch and accuracy) which I hope he's working on vehemently this offseason. Jets talent wise got a lot better on both sides of the ball. Lets see how he (Saleh) coaches the defense this year, even though I was deflated by the 3 game stretch last year with the Pats, Colts, and Bills.

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I would take the over on that. We have the overall 2 draft pick last year who at times showed he has ability to be a franchise Qb and a good one.  So I would think with better weapons on O and a more experienced HC and coaching staff the Jets should win more games. We lost all 6 games to AFC East opponents last year and that alone should be better. I don't see us losing all of those games in 2022. 

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As a long time jets fan like I assume most of us I would recommend staying off this bet.  I went over 6 last year so on top of the pleasure of living though a 4-13 season I lost $200 for the privilege.  That salt in the wound is going to be used in a margarita instead this year.  

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This seems like a no-brainer bet, but what scares me is that Vegas oddsmakers usually get it right (or there wouldn't be a Vegas). I just don't understand what they can possibly be thinking?  Last I heard, it jumped to >7 after the draft, which seems more realistic than >5.5, but I just checked and it is indeed >5.5.  I had to drop $100.  Even if Zach plays equal to his play post injury last season, how do they not get 2 more wins with the new additions (plus Lawson and hopefully Becton)?  Maybe I'm missing something, but it just doesn't seem possible that the house can win this one.

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22 hours ago, BradSmith16fan said:

Zac Taylor (offensive minded hc) Bengals 2019: 2-14 30th in nfl with 17.4 ppg. Zach Wilson is a bit concerning, but what he has to learn is correctable (short throw touch and accuracy) which I hope he's working on vehemently this offseason. Jets talent wise got a lot better on both sides of the ball. Lets see how he (Saleh) coaches the defense this year, even though I was deflated by the 3 game stretch last year with the Pats, Colts, and Bills.

Burrow in his rookie year looked way better than Zach Attack

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Ok so lets see...

 

@Browns - L, even if Watson is suspended then that means Baker probably starts.  Even Brisset and that loaded roster probably beats us

@Packers - L

@Dolphins - L

@Vikings - L

@Pats - L

Bills - L

Dolphins - W 

Pats - L

Ravens - L

Bengals - L

Bears - W (Fields is garbage)

Lions - W

@Steelers- L

@Bills - L

@Broncos - L

Jags - W

@Seahawks - W

 

5 Wins is about right

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On 5/6/2022 at 3:58 PM, DoomProphet said:

Yes we may have the 2nd hardest schedule in the league (for a team coming off a 4 win season is a joke!) but with the improvements JD made to the roster, if the Jets can't get 6 wins out of 17 games then something is seriously wrong.

If Wilson plays well and is consistent, the Jets can win 10 games.  If Wilson flops 5 to 6 wins is about right

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42 minutes ago, Dwight Englewood said:

Burrow in his rookie year looked way better than Zach Attack

100% true. I just think Zach's issues last year are fixable with his touch passes, as long as he's putting in a hardcore practice routine this off-season which I hope he has and continues to do.

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On 5/6/2022 at 5:57 PM, Facts said:

The other part of me says “Vegas ain’t stupid. They know something”

This is the correct part of you. I'm at 6 wins, hoping, as should all fans, that the stars align and we get to 10 and the playoffs.

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On 5/8/2022 at 1:54 PM, Rangers9 said:

We have the overall 2 draft pick last year who at times showed he has ability to be a franchise Qb and a good one.  

Be careful, at times, Mike White showed he has the ability to be a FQB. 

I take the over at 5.5 wins as well, but it's not a no-brainer unless you are betting with your heart.

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9 hours ago, Dwight Englewood said:

Ok so lets see...

 

@Browns - L, even if Watson is suspended then that means Baker probably starts.  Even Brisset and that loaded roster probably beats us

@Packers - L

@Dolphins - L

@Vikings - L

@Pats - L

Bills - L

Dolphins - W 

Pats - L

Ravens - L

Bengals - L

Bears - W (Fields is garbage)

Lions - W

@Steelers- L

@Bills - L

@Broncos - L

Jags - W

@Seahawks - W

 

5 Wins is about right

NE (2), Bal, Pit Den, Min.  Easily (2) wins from those games.  Throw in 1 unexpected upset (didn't they beat the Bengals last year)?  They just have to be pretty good to win 7, not great.   I think they'll be pretty good.

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11 hours ago, Supersonic said:

NE (2), Bal, Pit Den, Min.  Easily (2) wins from those games.  Throw in 1 unexpected upset (didn't they beat the Bengals last year)?  They just have to be pretty good to win 7, not great.   I think they'll be pretty good.

You think we winning getting 2 W's from the pats, Ravens, Steelers, Broncos and Vikings?  I have some crypto coins I want to sell you

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On 5/7/2022 at 6:26 AM, Dwight Englewood said:

Still no qb and the head coach stinks 

 

On 5/7/2022 at 6:28 AM, Dwight Englewood said:

We don’t have a qb and we don’t have a functional head coach

 

until we get both Joe Douglas can continue to have all these critically acclaimed drafts

This is spamming. There’s no need to make posts like this back to back. This is the main reason you keep getting banned. Not that you hate everything, but that you need to post the same crap eight million times across multiple threads. 

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9 minutes ago, slats said:

 

This is spamming. There’s no need to make posts like this back to back. This is the main reason you keep getting banned. Not that you hate everything, but that you need to post the same crap eight million times across multiple threads. 

Like us!  Learn to hate everything in new and exciting ways!

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Last year was a 20 game exhibition season. It was 100% about installation and evaluation. A green coaching staff teaching the youngest team in the league new systems on both sides of the ball. There was really no emphasis on winning, at all. Just about getting the team up to speed. But, when there were a couple close games, you did see some intensity from Saleh when the win was in sight. I expect that Saleh much more often this year. 
 
Zach sucked the first half of the year. No one denies this. His yips were epic and legendary. But he managed to settle down later in the season to play some mistake free football while playing with the team’s second, third, & fourth stringers. Now he’s had a full year in the system, and the move to hire his private coach for a while, then to send Zach back to work with that same coach who now has first hand knowledge of what the Jets want from him on offense should pay dividends. His work ethic has never been questioned and if he’s put the same time into the offense, studying film, etc., that he clearly put in at the gym, he should be in the best possible place. They’ve put a solid line in front of him and surrounded him with playmakers who can take it the distance on any given play. 
 
I don’t expect a lot in terms of wins, but I do think that 5.5 number is low. There’s gonna be some bumps in the road for what could be the youngest team in the league again this year, but I do expect see a team that gets better as the season goes on. 

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21 hours ago, Dwight Englewood said:

5 Wins is about right

In July 2021 there was a rash of posts about Zach Wilson ROY at +900 being such easy money. The only question is would Eli Moore +2000 split the vote.

hah. 

these types of "put your money where your mouth is" threads feels like people trying to "buy the win." Like our financial support moves the dial at all. 

the way these bets actually work (FOR ALL TEAMS NOT JUST THE NYJ)  is somewhere in the depths of the Hilton Superbook there's like a team of MIT and Stanford PhD's with tons of models and algorithms and frigging AI that makes Watson look like a dumb loser.

All those predictions models say about 4.5-5 wins. I can hear the critique now that those models aren't perfect and they aren't, it's true. They are something though. 

And Vegas puts the O/U at a half point or point higher than the models, makes the homers think it's easy money and viola, easy money.

If they put it at 5.5 that means somewhere they've determined the magic number is probably 5. Again it's not perfect but it's the same models they are using to make the spreads. 

If you're making a bet that pays off in Jan 2023 in May 2022 you are by definition a low-information gambler. Vegas loves low information gamblers. 

I get being optimistic on the Jets but if you're going to do it, do it the week of the game, and take the damn points. You'll know more about injuries, weather, momentum, etc. Right now no one knows anything. But we are imagining happy thoughts and that's money for Vegas. 

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We face 4 teams with rookie HC.   We play the Dolphins 2, The Bears, Denver, Jacksonville.  Those should be winable games.  I'm of the opinion that the Pats got significantly worse lossing Josh McDaniels coupled with a bad draft and the loss of CJ Jackson.  

I still believe Zach is going to be fine.  I'm not sure of Saleh but having a program in place for a second year should give us an advantate over clubs with rookie HC's.  

Generally bad teams win a couple of games they shouldn't.  In a 17 game season under 6 would be a really bad season.  

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7 minutes ago, Biggs said:

We face 4 teams with rookie HC.   We play the Dolphins 2, The Bears, Denver, Jacksonville.  Those should be winable games.  I'm of the opinion that the Pats got significantly worse lossing Josh McDaniels coupled with a bad draft and the loss of CJ Jackson.  

I still believe Zach is going to be fine.  I'm not sure of Saleh but having a program in place for a second year should give us an advantate over clubs with rookie HC's.  

Generally bad teams win a couple of games they shouldn't.  In a 17 game season under 6 would be a really bad season.  

at Denver with Russell Wilson at QB is basically a schedule loss i.e. a Loss when they release the schedule. 

granted The Jets will probably steal wins where they shouldn't and lose games they should win, like always

no one had them beating CIN or TEN last year that's for sure  

the other side of the coin is that every team on the schedule sees the Jets as an automatic W and that's where teams like CIN and TEN fall into a trap. 

but certain situations (At Sea, At Pit, At GB, at DEN) are historic wastelands for this franchise. They don't play Seattle on a neutral field they play them 3000+ miles away in one of the two loudest stadiums in the USA (KCC the other one, a schedule loss last year). That road trip from the East coast to SEA sucks, even if you're the Bills. 

really good franchises can make these long road trips and rely on their program quality to win. The Jets are not really good and the program is just getting started 

I also don't get why everyone says the Pats are done. They are the Pats, and own the Jets' asses every season for the last like 10 seasons in a row. Not just beating them, blowing them out every time. It's false bravado to say the Pats are significantly worse. 

there is hope for the future. 2022 might not be the expression of that hope however. The team ceiling is basically .500 and that's if everything breaks correctly 

give these kids another year I can see them building on that etc. BUt teams don't go from 2 wins to 4 wins to 10 wins it happens occasionally but it usually takes time 

 

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1 hour ago, bitonti said:

at Denver with Russell Wilson at QB is basically a schedule loss i.e. a Loss when they release the schedule. 

granted The Jets will probably steal wins where they shouldn't and lose games they should win, like always

no one had them beating CIN or TEN last year that's for sure  

the other side of the coin is that every team on the schedule sees the Jets as an automatic W and that's where teams like CIN and TEN fall into a trap. 

but certain situations (At Sea, At Pit, At GB, at DEN) are historic wastelands for this franchise. They don't play Seattle on a neutral field they play them 3000+ miles away in one of the two loudest stadiums in the USA (KCC the other one, a schedule loss last year). That road trip from the East coast to SEA sucks, even if you're the Bills. 

really good franchises can make these long road trips and rely on their program quality to win. The Jets are not really good and the program is just getting started 

I also don't get why everyone says the Pats are done. They are the Pats, and own the Jets' asses every season for the last like 10 seasons in a row. Not just beating them, blowing them out every time. It's false bravado to say the Pats are significantly worse. 

there is hope for the future. 2022 might not be the expression of that hope however. The team ceiling is basically .500 and that's if everything breaks correctly 

give these kids another year I can see them building on that etc. BUt teams don't go from 2 wins to 4 wins to 10 wins it happens occasionally but it usually takes time 

 

We don't have a terrible record in Seattle.  I think we are 3 and 5 historically in Seattle and are 8 and 12 over all.  Seems where we play them has been mostly irrelevant.  

Our record in Denver since 2010 is also no different than our home record.  We have won 2 games against them one at home one in Denver.   Rookie HC, new system.  Not impossible.

Not saying the Pats are done.  They aren't a loaded team with a great QB and great Staff.  They are a mediocre roster with a great HC, decimated staff and a decent QB who's not special.   It's winnable with good coaching and solid play from Zach. 

The season is no longer 16 games, it's 17 games.  Under 6 wins would be a dissaster for Saleh and his program.  

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