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The over/under for Jets wins in 2022 is still at 5.5!!


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2 hours ago, Biggs said:

The season is no longer 16 games, it's 17 games.  Under 6 wins would be a dissaster for Saleh and his program.  

the team is much better than last year but the schedule is much harder

the AFC in general is loaded 

if the Jets were in the NFC East like NYG I'd agree they win 8 or whatever

this schedule is a beast and it starts in the division

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3 hours ago, bitonti said:

 

but certain situations (At Sea, At Pit, At GB, at DEN) are historic wastelands for this franchise.

 

I generally agree with that you're saying (and agree the @ Denver and @ Green Bay feel like automatic losses) but Drew Lock scares absolutely nobody.

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3 hours ago, Biggs said:

Our record in Denver since 2010 is also no different than our home record.  We have won 2 games against them one at home one in Denver.   Rookie HC, new system.  Not impossible. 

I had to look this up because it was gnawing at me (in case people wonder how I spend my days) 

The Denver Broncos lead the Jets all time 22-16-1

The Jets lost 26-0 in Denver in 2021. They lost 23-0 in Denver in 2017

they literally haven't scored a point in Denver since 2011, another 17-13 loss

The 2010 Jets won in Denver 24-20 (that's an example of a strong team overcoming the road trip)

in 2007 the Jets were also shut out 27-0 

they won in 1999 (Rick Mirer to Keyshawn) and we can keep digging but the road history is brutal 

So just to review the Jets are 1-5 the last 6 times in Denver, and were shut out 3 of those 6 games. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/game_query.cgi?tm1=nyj&tm2=den&yr=all

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31 minutes ago, bitonti said:

the team is much better than last year but the schedule is much harder

the AFC in general is loaded 

if the Jets were in the NFC East like NYG I'd agree they win 8 or whatever

this schedule is a beast and it starts in the division

The AFC now is what the NFC was in the 80's and most of the 90s.

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34 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I generally agree with that you're saying (and agree the @ Denver and @ Green Bay feel like automatic losses) but Drew Lock scares absolutely nobody.

The Jets lost 40-3 in 2020 in Seattle

in 2012 they lost 28-7 

in 2008 they lost 13-3

the last time the Jets won in Seattle was in 1997, before the current stadium was even built 

all of these stats get fed into the model and fans just say "oh yeah they win 8 games" but if one subscribes to history that's going to be a tough game, regardless of the Drew Lock factor 

We're not even sure Drew Lock is better than Zach Wilson, at least as far as the models are concerned. Here's a fun Fact Zach Wilson is 1-6 in road games. 

The Jets fan base assumes Zach Wilson is going to take this amazing leap and that's where the models can get caught looking foolish. 

But if he plays like the Zach Wilson we saw last year - better at home than on the road, these are all tough tough matchups. 

We might have a year of close losses, moral victories, Zach Wilson looking better but how much better? Unless he becomes a franchise QB 1 that does not translate into a huge win difference 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsZa00/splits/2021/

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13 minutes ago, bitonti said:

The Jets lost 40-3 in 2020 in Seattle

in 2012 they lost 28-7 

in 2008 they lost 13-3

None of those are relevant at all. Any kind of historical subset needs to have a larger sample size than that -- especially when Russell Wilson was the starting QB for two of those three games.

13 minutes ago, bitonti said:

the last time the Jets won in Seattle was in 1997, before the current stadium was even built 

all of these stats get fed into the model and fans just say "oh yeah they win 8 games" but if one subscribes to history that's going to be a tough game, regardless of the Drew Lock factor 

We're not even sure Drew Lock is better than Zach Wilson, at least as far as the models are concerned. Here's a fun Fact Zach Wilson is 1-6 in road games. 

The Jets fan base assumes Zach Wilson is going to take this amazing leap and that's where the models can get caught looking foolish. 

But if he plays like the Zach Wilson we saw last year - better at home than on the road, these are all tough tough matchups. 

We might have a year of close losses, moral victories, Zach Wilson looking better but how much better? Unless he becomes a franchise QB 1 that does not translate into a huge win difference 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsZa00/splits/2021/

I mean, if Zach Wilson is "good" I think we should win that game. Even if Zach Wilson is kinda meh  still it's a game we should be in. If Zach Wilson is Drew Lock? Yeah, we're screwed. Have to hope that's not the case.

I just refuse to have expectations that we'll lose every road game and to every good team and will be lucky to go 6-11.

The time for this team to make a leap is now.

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22 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I just refuse to have expectations that we'll lose every road game and to every good team and will be lucky to go 6-11.

The time for this team to make a leap is now.

and I refuse to say the Jets are good until they actually win games 

im taking an evidence based approach

don't make me post the Drew Lock/Zach Wilson comparison, no one's going to like it 

this idea they are getting better is based on this mythical jump Zach has to make from top 32 QB (barely a starter) to top 15 or top 10. It's alot to ask. 

we're getting to the root of the issue  - betting the over (what we want to happen) has nothing to do with what will actually happen. 

this is not a matter of faith. 

it's not like if the fans root harder, the flight to Seattle gets shorter 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, bitonti said:

and I refuse to say the Jets are good until they actually win games 

im taking an evidence based approach

don't make me post the Drew Lock/Zach Wilson comparison, no one's going to like it 

this idea they are getting better is based on this mythical jump Zach has to make from top 32 QB (barely a starter) to top 15 or top 10. It's alot to ask. 

we're getting to the root of the issue  - betting the over (what we want to happen) has nothing to do with what will actually happen. 

this is not a matter of faith. 

it's not like if the fans root harder, the flight to Seattle gets shorter 

 

 

To be clear, I thought Zach Wilson sucked last year and had a worse rookie year than Darnold. I don't know if I'd qualify myself as a Wilson "believer." There were times last year where he clearly didn't belong on an NFL roster.

That said, I think the offense at times last year looked extremely frisky. I this scheme is QB friendly. I think Douglas has done a great job of rebuilding the line and acquiring weapons.

Simply put, even if Wilson still sucks there should be a baseline competency expected on offense. I don't think he needs to be a top 15 QB for this team to be respectable.

And if, with everything lined up for him, he does make a huge leap? Watch out. This offense could be legitimately good.

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8 minutes ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

5 or 6 wins sounds about right. This team still isn't very good.

 

Jets have a lot of talent right now, it’s just that a lot of it is still unproven. Coaches have a big job this year. Winning or losing didn’t matter last year, the offseason the Jets just had tells me that there’s gonna be a lot more emphasis on winning this year. The primary focus is Zach, as it should be, but they’re clearly looking to protect him with a run first philosophy. 
 
A lot of the badness last year was no one knowing what they were doing for much of the first half, and then everyone hurt for most of the second. This team has enough talent to be good. It’s up to the coaches to get all the new starters in place and up to speed, which is no small task. Obviously, Zach has to be better, too. The pieces are there, though. 

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7 minutes ago, bitonti said:

don't make me post the Drew Lock/Zach Wilson comparison, no one's going to like it 

My scariest thought.

We truly don’t know if Zach is a top 10 QB or bust yet. So much hinges on him 

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29 minutes ago, Skeet Ulrich said:

5 or 6 wins sounds about right. This team still isn't very good.

 

Nope. This roster has the capability to win more then 5-6

If they don’t it’s on the coaching staff and well players themselves. The potential is truly there 

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55 minutes ago, bitonti said:

I had to look this up because it was gnawing at me (in case people wonder how I spend my days) 

The Denver Broncos lead the Jets all time 22-16-1

The Jets lost 26-0 in Denver in 2021. They lost 23-0 in Denver in 2017

they literally haven't scored a point in Denver since 2011, another 17-13 loss

The 2010 Jets won in Denver 24-20 (that's an example of a strong team overcoming the road trip)

in 2007 the Jets were also shut out 27-0 

they won in 1999 (Rick Mirer to Keyshawn) and we can keep digging but the road history is brutal 

So just to review the Jets are 1-5 the last 6 times in Denver, and were shut out 3 of those 6 games. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/game_query.cgi?tm1=nyj&tm2=den&yr=all

An amazingly crappy team that lost to Denver in Denver doesn't mean a decent team against a unknown Denver team with a new coaching staff is automatically going to lose.   The Jets are a historically crappy team.  They lose to most teams on the road.  Denver on the other hand has had a historically good team.  They have a ton of 9 to 13 win seasons.  You would expect them to kill the Jets at home most of the time regardless of geography.  One of the reasons Denver is considered a tough place to play is Denver has been mostly good.   They had a lot of stability for a long time at the ownership, Coach and QB positions.   Since Kubiak left they have been a crappy team without stability at the top and HC positions.  It's easier to beat them either at home or on the road.  

RW has been a great QB.  He is also an old QB for his age.  He has taken a pounding and it's not surprising that he got injured last year and missed games.  Seattle, a pretty good organization felt okay moving on.  

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Just now, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

If you see a line that you think is mispriced, you don't try to argue the book into correcting it.

It should be noted that while the line is at 5.5 the over moved from -115 to -150, which implies a likelihood of 53% to 60%.

6 wins at -150 just doesn't really feel like great value though.

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1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I generally agree with that you're saying (and agree the @ Denver and @ Green Bay feel like automatic losses) but Drew Lock scares absolutely nobody.

I would love to win in Denver after that disgrace last year 

 

for whatever reason, we have had some nice performances in Green Bay over the years. It means nothing, of course. But I still enjoy watching jets games at lambeau. Also, I just love that stadium. 

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On 5/6/2022 at 7:14 PM, bitonti said:

it's easy to say "they won 4 last year now they win more because they got better"

that's easy logic.

it's hard to look at the schedule and go team by team and find where they get the 6 wins to win this money

The road schedule especially is terrible with so called "easy wins" like Pitt and Sea in buildings where the Jets usually get destroyed.

yes they got better but Zach Wilson has to become Joe Namath for the Jets to go anywhere in a killer AFC

This is sorta my take.

Do I think the Jets will be far better on the field?  If Zach lives up to his potential/hype, yes, I do.

Do I think that being far more competitive every week will pay dividends in the win/loss column?  Not as much, actually.

I think 5-12 or 6-11 are both quite possible vs. this schedule as we stand here today.  We'll just have more 28-21 and 21-17 type losses and fewer 51-3 losses.

The difference is, if Zach IS the man, and takes that big step, it's more reasonable that 7-9 wins could also be a thing, albeit quite a lift.

As Bit says, start with "can we beat the Steelers at the Steelers" type questions.  Will we not get swept by Miami and Buffalo.  Will we finally beat New England?  

It could be both a big step of a season, and very disappointing, ultimately, in terms of W/L.  And I don't say that often.

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1 hour ago, bitonti said:

the team is much better than last year but the schedule is much harder

the AFC in general is loaded 

if the Jets were in the NFC East like NYG I'd agree they win 8 or whatever

this schedule is a beast and it starts in the division

Yea this is my fear and what I expect 

 

jets will be much better but win like 6 games and everyone will want everyone fired and rinse and repeat 

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1 hour ago, bitonti said:

I had to look this up because it was gnawing at me (in case people wonder how I spend my days) 

The Denver Broncos lead the Jets all time 22-16-1

The Jets lost 26-0 in Denver in 2021. They lost 23-0 in Denver in 2017

they literally haven't scored a point in Denver since 2011, another 17-13 loss

The 2010 Jets won in Denver 24-20 (that's an example of a strong team overcoming the road trip)

in 2007 the Jets were also shut out 27-0 

they won in 1999 (Rick Mirer to Keyshawn) and we can keep digging but the road history is brutal 

So just to review the Jets are 1-5 the last 6 times in Denver, and were shut out 3 of those 6 games. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/game_query.cgi?tm1=nyj&tm2=den&yr=all

The only thing I will say about Denver is that I think there is a 10% chance Wilson is suddenly washed 

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14 minutes ago, Warfish said:

This is sorta my take.

Do I think the Jets will be far better on the field?  If Zach lives up to his potential/hype, yes, I do.

Do I think that being far more competitive every week will pay dividends in the win/loss column?  Not as much, actually.

I think 5-12 or 6-11 are both quite possible vs. this schedule as we stand here today.  We'll just have more 28-21 and 21-17 type losses and fewer 51-3 losses.

The difference is, if Zach IS the man, and takes that big step, it's more reasonable that 7-9 wins could also be a thing, albeit quite a lift.

As Bit says, start with "can we beat the Steelers at the Steelers" type questions.  Will we not get swept by Miami and Buffalo.  Will we finally beat New England?  

It could be both a big step of a season, and very disappointing, ultimately, in terms of W/L.  And I don't say that often.

it's like that multiverse Marvel universe 

if we can see all the outcomes for this season, like all the different ways it could go, there would be the disaster outcomes where everyone gets hurt and they win 2 games (it's happened before) and the "everything goes right" scenario where they win 8 maybe 9 games somehow

most of the outcomes are in that 5-6 range. That's the fat part of the distribution curve

if my rants have a point it's that most people are living in that tail end and ignoring any other outcome 

yes there is an outcome where Zach wilson becomes Josh Allen but even that didn't happen until JA's year 3

 

 

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18 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I would love to win in Denver after that disgrace last year 

 

for whatever reason, we have had some nice performances in Green Bay over the years. It means nothing, of course. But I still enjoy watching jets games at lambeau. Also, I just love that stadium. 

I went to Jets/Packers at Lambeau in 2014 with my late father. Fantastic experience, felt like going to a college game/town. Too bad the Jets blew it, Sheldon Richardson calling TOs and whatnot.

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2 hours ago, bitonti said:

the team is much better than last year but the schedule is much harder

the AFC in general is loaded 

if the Jets were in the NFC East like NYG I'd agree they win 8 or whatever

this schedule is a beast and it starts in the division

God, it’s gonna be hell for Jets fans if the Giants are hovering around .500 on Thanksgiving and the Jets are 3-8. 

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12 hours ago, Dwight Englewood said:

You think we winning getting 2 W's from the pats, Ravens, Steelers, Broncos and Vikings?  I have some crypto coins I want to sell you

NFL 2021 Final Standings:  Bal: 8-9; Den: 7-10; Pit: 9-7; Min: 8-9.  Hopefully for your sake you don't make a living in sales.

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5 hours ago, UntouchableCrew said:

It should be noted that while the line is at 5.5 the over moved from -115 to -150, which implies a likelihood of 53% to 60%.

6 wins at -150 just doesn't really feel like great value though.

True.  I wouldn't normally place a bet with those odds.  However, I'm a long-suffering Jets' fan who has never actually had an opportunity to 'potentially' win a bet ON the Jets.  The payout doesn't really matter, I'm in it for the glory :)

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18 hours ago, Fantasy Island said:

My hope is that we become a ground and pound team so that we can win despite our QB like when we had Sanchez.  

The flashes last year were far and few in between.

We have a chance to have a special running game.  But you still need a competent QB who can keep the defense honest.  Derrick Henry didn't really emerge until Mariota got benched.

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I was just about to post a new thread about "projected" win totals. All over Twitter there are Jets fans taking about how this should be a 7 win team!  7-10? Are you kidding me? What is this hoping they win :"just enough games" so they still are "players" on draft days? I don't want to see them win any less than 10 games and a playoff berth, and from the roster they are building I think it is doable. Playing football for draft picks is depressing, especially when they are talked about anytime BEFORE the college regular season is finished

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3 minutes ago, SoFlaJets said:

I was just about to post a new thread about "projected" win totals. All over Twitter there are Jets fans taking about how this should be a 7 win team!  7-10? Are you kidding me? What is this hoping they win :"just enough games" so they still are "players" on draft days? I don't want to see them win any less than 10 games and a playoff berth, and from the roster they are building I think it is doable. Playing football for draft picks is depressing, especially when they are talked about anytime BEFORE the college regular season is finished

I think it's a really sad Ira from Staten Island/Woody Johnson mentality being disseminated amongst the fanbase to celebrate a 7 win season.  I've been hearing this crap on talk radio for years "If the Jets just won 7 games I'd be ecstatic for the development"

 

What a bunch of crap.  How about a better than .500 record and playoffs?

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1 hour ago, Dwight Englewood said:

I think it's a really sad Ira from Staten Island/Woody Johnson mentality being disseminated amongst the fanbase to celebrate a 7 win season.  I've been hearing this crap on talk radio for years "If the Jets just won 7 games I'd be ecstatic for the development"

 

What a bunch of crap.  How about a better than .500 record and playoffs?

We didn’t get DeShaun Watson, so expectations low

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8 hours ago, Dwight Englewood said:

And what was the Jets record?

You predicted the Jets would win a game against Miami who were 9-8 last season.  Even a starving salesman should realize when he's contradicting himself.  Maybe not.

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