Bills almost took Breece Hall in the 1st round

[32EBoozer]

11 hours ago, Facts said:

I just looked and they not only have 2 million more posts than we do, but 4,000 more active users.

But who gives a crap - why are we arguing about Bills fans? I’d rather paint my toenails.

We’ve all been lied to! We were told we were the largest fan based message board in pro football.

I want my money back…… oh, wait……….never mind!

[slats]

3 minutes ago, 32EBoozer said:

We’ve all been lied to! We were told we were the largest fan based message board in pro football.

I want my money back…… oh, wait……….never mind!

This place’ll pick up if we can get to 13 seconds from the AFFCG. 

[32EBoozer]

1 minute ago, slats said:

This place’ll pick up if we can get to 13 seconds from the AFFCG. 

Or…. when Becton comes to 

camp at 400+ or gets owned by JJ

[Barry McCockinner]

9 hours ago, Pac said:

Lucky for us you're wrong 92.7% of the time.

7.3% of the time, I'm right every time.

[Jdub03]

1 minute ago, Barry McCockinner said:

7.3% of the time, I'm right every time.

[Dcat]

12 hours ago, JTJet said:

Yeah that's not true. 

Not only would they have taken him in the first, the Jets attempted to trade into rd 1 a second time to select him, but couldn't find a trade partner. 

first I've heard that.  Link?  

[neckdemon]

beane sounds like a bitch....getting butt hurt when a trade or signing doesnt go his way......gets butthurt, pouts and gets mad at the gm, agent etc....

[Integrity28]

12 hours ago, Zachtomims47 said:

It’s kinda insane the amount of slander the Jets are getting for drafting a RB in the 2nd round. Look at this whole Twitter thread, you’d think they took one at 4. 

I skimmed the thread. It’s unintelligible and shouldn’t warrant reading or reacting.

[BCJet]

12 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

It was a great pick for the Jets - and analytics guys don't take into account the Jets team, how it's positioned and what they're trying to build.

Breece Hall will have bigger impact on this roster over the next couple of years than any other player they could  have possibly taken.  

Analytics without context is useless.

 

This is how I feel as well.  Could we have taken a DT with that pick to "fill a need", sure and it would have probably been hailed as a good pick on the day after the draft. But we are trying to build a team around Zach for the next 5 years and giving him a weapon like Breece is going to do exactly that. 

From an analytics standpoint there should be an additional factor that we had 3 other picks in the top 40.  If JD had ignored edge or WR and taken Breece then I think you could question it as a bit of a luxury pick but thats not what happened. 

 

[JTJet]

52 minutes ago, Dcat said:

first I've heard that.  Link?  

I read it here on another link someone had posted, but cant find which thread it was in. It may have been Hughes that tweeted it. 

[slats]

3 minutes ago, BCJet said:

From an analytics standpoint there should be an additional factor that we had 3 other picks in the top 40.  If JD had ignored edge or WR and taken Breece then I think you could question it as a bit of a luxury pick but thats not what happened.

You don’t need any additional factors in the analytics department. Let them crunch numbers all day long as if those are the only things in the universe that matter, then spit out the data. It’s up to the GM and HC to decipher it and use it how and when they see fit. There are just too many variables in football vs. baseball for analytics to take over the sport. That’s what the PFF guys try to do, assign a number to those variables, but it’s about as inexact a science  as it can be. 
 
I understand why these guys don’t like “the method,” of trading up for a guard or RB, but Joe Douglas is trying to jumpstart a team that top free agents would rather not join right now. Only way for him to get top shelf players is to claim them in the draft. I suspect that next year’s draft will be much more conventional, that the team will better be able to attract free agents at that time, and there won’t be any pressure to find multiple starters there. 

[CSNY]

11 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I think a highly drafted RB makes more sense for a team like the bills who are Superbowl contenders. 

I hope the kid is a stud and proves me wrong but I still don't like taking a RB so high. 

If Hall can take the rushing attack to a higher level which in turn helps Zach and the passing game it will be a great choice  regardless of the need at LB. Really liked Chenal

[Fantasy Island]

13 hours ago, BradSmith16fan said:

The Jets arguably got the best cb, wr, maybe edge, and rb in the whole draft. Not to mention a TE people had highly rated. To trade up to 36 they gave up a 5th rounder. They got 26 and a late 3rd rounder giving up 35, an early 3rd rounder, and a 5th rounder, maybe getting the player they were gonna take early that 3rd round with the late 3rd. They took 7 players in first 4 rounds, better chance of hit rate than 5th rounders. You really couldn't do better than they did, yet people still "roast" them. If I were the coach, I would tell the players to stay off the media social feeds and watching television networks. Plus be respectful in press conferences to minimize engagement. There is no rational way a team should be criticized for the draft the jets had or the "process" they are following, and I would ask Jason politely if the Ravens had the same exact draft the Jets did how would he rate their "process"? 

This draft was so good, it was like JD wanted to do all he could to make up for the 2020 draft.  He wanted this draft to be the polar opposite of that horrendous first draft of his.

Kudos.

[Darnold's Forehead]

11 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I think a highly drafted RB makes more sense for a team like the bills who are Superbowl contenders. 

I hope the kid is a stud and proves me wrong but I still don't like taking a RB so high. 

Yeah the reason I’m fine with it is because he helps the offense and this team NEEDS to start putting points up and playing well.  This idea that RBs don’t help teams much is ridiculous, they just require not terrible O-lines first and have a smaller time window of good play/risky for 2nd contracts.

We’re not going to the Super Bowl but it seems we may have some pieces set on offense.  This was a nice addition and the kid seems to have a low bust potential that can be effective day 1.

[slats]

14 hours ago, Zachtomims47 said:

It’s kinda insane the amount of slander the Jets are getting for drafting a RB in the 2nd round. Look at this whole Twitter thread, you’d think they took one at 4. 

Jason’s a Jet fan, and I love his site, but I wonder how he feels about the Rams’ process the last couple of years? 

[Jet Nut]

14 hours ago, bitonti said:

that was enjoyable but did these numbnuts think the Bills were going to trade back into the round? 

i'm really excited for Hall but even the Jets didn't like him enough to take him in rd1

 

They may have if they didnt trade up for JJ.  If they had Hall as their 18th best player a trade up into the 20's could be justified.  Problem was they had JJ rated in their top 8

[IndianaJet]

15 hours ago, fullblast said:

For anyone who hasn't seen this yet, enjoy

 

Which one of these dudes in the Bills version of Doom Prophet?

[IndianaJet]

27 minutes ago, slats said:

Jason’s a Jet fan, and I love his site, but I wonder how he feels about the Rams’ process the last couple of years? 

As Jason's site has grown and become more and more mainstream, I feel like he's becoming more and more of one of those guys in the "it pays to bash the Jets" crowd.

[Facts]

1 hour ago, slats said:

You don’t need any additional factors in the analytics department. Let them crunch numbers all day long as if those are the only things in the universe that matter, then spit out the data. It’s up to the GM and HC to decipher it and use it how and when they see fit. There are just too many variables in football vs. baseball for analytics to take over the sport. That’s what the PFF guys try to do, assign a number to those variables, but it’s about as inexact a science  as it can be. 
 
I understand why these guys don’t like “the method,” of trading up for a guard or RB, but Joe Douglas is trying to jumpstart a team that top free agents would rather not join right now. Only way for him to get top shelf players is to claim them in the draft. I suspect that next year’s draft will be much more conventional, that the team will better be able to attract free agents at that time, and there won’t be any pressure to find multiple starters there. 

“Jumpstart the team”

Love that analogy!

Weve been running on a dead battery for a while. 

[Charlie Brown]

15 hours ago, Facts said:

Loved this pick from the moment it was announced but this confirms it.

Bills GM basically admits that Breece Hall was going to be their pick if Elam wasn’t there.

https://www.ballysports.com/national/news/brandon-beane-s-lasting-formula-to-build-a-champion-in-buffalo

The Truth is that many many many fans were irate and that the Bills didn't pick him.  Indeed fans were clamoring for him.  There is one thread that is over 115 pages long and over 12 months in length in duration discussing this....

Wow!!

[Dcat]

Just now, Charlie Brown said:

The Truth is that many many many fans were irate and that the Bills didn't pick him.  Indeed fans were clamoring for him.  There is one thread that is over 115 pages long and over 12 months in length in duration discussing this....

Wow!!

yeah and the last couple of pages right after the Jets moved got  him really took the wind out of their sails comically and abruptly. 

[Lurker89]

This pick is about having a strong run game to take pressure off of ZW and aid in his development.

It's pretty sad that the analytics nerds can't look past their formulas to see common sense.

[Shockwave]

15 hours ago, JTJet said:

Well Jason from OTC needs to stick to cap evaluation. 

Oh absolutely - Jason needs to stick to putting numbers into Excel. In fact the PFF guys as well regarding teams picks in certain drafts as they have consistently missed on this. Especially when neither has any track record of calling picks correctly. 

All of these types absolutely hated the Rams method of trading many of their picks for players. The Rams just won the Super Bowl. Their was a podcast in which the PFF guys were like "Lets not mention that as it makes our process look wrong". 

Jason - Puts those numbers in Excel great. No business talking about team building. Guy was just an average poster when he was here. 

PFF - Great at quantifying players winnings and losing plays. No business talking about team building. Rams say hello who they sh*t on always for trading picks. 

In terms of building a roster much of their data is insignificant and circumstantial. There is just too many Variables in Football to examine this.  I have seen so many years of Idzik, Mac and JD's first year where GM's want value, trade down and just get the last ranked player on their board in a tier just not work out. A whole lot of Denzil Mim's out there in the world. Draft picks just bust too often. 

Teams that often do the best move around getting the exact players they want - Especially when your talking about moving mid-late round picks that have a hit rate below 8%. 

 

[JiFapono]

10 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

7.3% of the time, I'm right every time.

Seems generous. 

[T0mShane]

22 hours ago, JTJet said:

B - There about 47 Bills fans in the world anyways. 

You’re just counting the 47 Bills fans who have internet access.

[JiFapono]

9 hours ago, slats said:

Jason’s a Jet fan, and I love his site, but I wonder how he feels about the Rams’ process the last couple of years? 

Jason is a Jets fan and in the last 3 years he's seen this taken in the first round and second rounds; LT, WR, QB, G, WR, CB, Edge, WR, RB and he saying its a bad approach?  lmfao.  Yeah, I guess we should go back to Safeties and Defensive Tackles and Kickers.  That was a great approach.

 

[slats]

9 hours ago, Fantasy Island said:

This draft was so good, it was like JD wanted to do all he could to make up for the 2020 draft.  He wanted this draft to be the polar opposite of that horrendous first draft of his.

Kudos.

This ****ing narrative again. The conventional wisdom has always been to give a draft three years before judging it, and not just in Covid/Gase years. The narrative that the Jets had given up on Becton has turned out to be pure propaganda, he’s gonna open the season as one of your starting tackles, and don’t be surprised if it’s the left one. Mims is a huge question mark, I get it, but he’s getting a lot of buzz from the coaches. Something must be up. He’s, at best, the #5 WR opening day. But if anything happens to any of the top three guys, he could wind up seeing the field a lot if all this talk translates into reality. If those guys actually contribute the way they’re currently penciled in to, that draft really won’t be looking all that horrendous. 

[T0mShane]

9 hours ago, slats said:

Jason’s a Jet fan, and I love his site, but I wonder how he feels about the Rams’ process the last couple of years? 

The PFF guys counter the “but the Rams!” talking point by pointing out that they always end up picking around nine players in every draft and a lot of those mid-round picks become high-end contributors, which their algorithm likes. 

[derp]

The numbers guys have come to the conclusion that they were naturally going to come to. Numbers bear out that teams aren’t actually good at picking players (which is a perspective I happen to agree with). Accordingly, they’re better off accumulating draft picks than isolating a few guys they really think will be good and consolidating the picks they have to acquire them.

That two of the last three moves up have been for a guard taken very early for a guard and a running back doesn’t look good from that standpoint. You kind of need those guys to be on the high end of their range of outcomes to justify it

I do get the gripe and hope this isn’t indicative of an organizational philosophy as the two places Douglas came from tend to do a really good job of acquiring picks.

[rtnelson]

On 5/6/2022 at 5:38 PM, fullblast said:

For anyone who hasn't seen this yet, enjoy

 

Whenever I watch this, I feel bad for Kevin.  Kevin likes football, he likes watching football with his friends.  He doesn't study the draft, or make his own boards.  He doesn't watch opposing teams film to prepare himself for the upcoming week.  Kevin just likes to eat his nachos and enjoy the game with his friends.

[fullblast]

12 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

Whenever I watch this, I feel bad for Kevin.  Kevin likes football, he likes watching football with his friends.  He doesn't study the draft, or make his own boards.  He doesn't watch opposing teams film to prepare himself for the upcoming week.  Kevin just likes to eat his nachos and enjoy the game with his friends.

Be like Kevin.

[GreenReaper]

On 5/6/2022 at 6:28 PM, slimjasi said:

Jets tried to trade back into round 1 to get him! 

Rumors...there was a couple of videos that mentioned this...

Jets offered their 38th pick...and all the rest of their picks...to move up to #28.  But Packers wanted Jets 2023 #2 pick.  And JD said no.  That was their first attempt to get Breece.  If this is true...it just goes to show you how much JD coveted Hall.  Which is about as much as I did.  Breece was my favorite pick...the one I coveted the most.  

Thank you JD! 

See 05;40 mark...

Download video

 

[Doggin94it]

On 5/6/2022 at 7:43 PM, BradSmith16fan said:

The Jets arguably got the best cb, wr, maybe edge, and rb in the whole draft. Not to mention a TE people had highly rated. To trade up to 36 they gave up a 5th rounder. They got 26 and a late 3rd rounder giving up 35, an early 3rd rounder, and a 5th rounder, maybe getting the player they were gonna take early that 3rd round with the late 3rd. They took 7 players in first 4 rounds, better chance of hit rate than 5th rounders. You really couldn't do better than they did, yet people still "roast" them. If I were the coach, I would tell the players to stay off the media social feeds and watching television networks. Plus be respectful in press conferences to minimize engagement. There is no rational way a team should be criticized for the draft the jets had or the "process" they are following, and I would ask Jason politely if the Ravens had the same exact draft the Jets did how would he rate their "process"? 

I mean Jason's a Jets fan so I imagine the same

[Doggin94it]

5 hours ago, GreenReaper said:

Rumors...there was a couple of videos that mentioned this...

Jets offered their 38th pick...and all the rest of their picks...to move up to #28.  But Packers wanted Jets 2023 #2 pick.  And JD said no.  That was their first attempt to get Breece.  If this is true...it just goes to show you how much JD coveted Hall.  Which is about as much as I did.  Breece was my favorite pick...the one I coveted the most.  

Thank you JD! 

See 05;40 mark...

Download video

 

0% chance this is true

[BurnleyJet]

Breece Hall isn’t even 21 until the end of May. On another interesting note he’s the cousin of Roger Craig ex 49er great.