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WILD @$$ Guess at 2022 Jets Reception Distribution


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Last year, the Jets completed 357 passes.  Adding 5% for 2022, and that is 375 pass receptions this year.

Last year RBs caught 23.5% of passes, TEs caught 14.3% of passes, and WRs caught 62.2% of passes

Using the same percentages for 2022 with 375 receptions, that would be

  • RB - 88 receptions
  • TE - 54 receptions
  • WR - 233 receptions

Assuming our TE play is significantly better in 2022, I am going to use these numbers to get to 375:

  • RB - 80 receptions
  • TE - 70 receptions
  • WR - 225 receptions

How might that breakdown into player receptions for 2022?  Here's a wild guess:


image.png.1504385fa6e50b999c87e8a78d966b28.png  

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16 minutes ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Last year, the Jets completed 357 passes.  Adding 5% for 2022, and that is 375 pass receptions this year.

Last year RBs caught 23.5% of passes, TEs caught 14.3% of passes, and WRs caught 62.2% of passes

Using the same percentages for 2022 with 375 receptions, that would be

  • RB - 88 receptions
  • TE - 54 receptions
  • WR - 233 receptions

Assuming our TE play is significantly better in 2022, I am going to use these numbers to get to 375:

  • RB - 80 receptions
  • TE - 70 receptions
  • WR - 225 receptions

How might that breakdown into player receptions for 2022?  Here's a wild guess:


image.png.1504385fa6e50b999c87e8a78d966b28.png  

To mock this up looking at the 375ish number is very likely this year and your inclination of good TE play should increase their usage in game plan - I agree but I think even though they see our two TE as separate positions with in the TE world - 1 being more of a pass catcher, i think it is very reasonable to assume that we are shooting for 4-6 TE receptions a game but our offense really is going to use them both as a safety valves.

TE - 

I think Zach will not be able to make either CJ or Conk into Kittle - who pulled in 71 receptions in 14 games or about 5 a game. Nor will he make CJ get the 50 or so he got last year from burrow. But any given game I think the two of them can combine for 5 or more. The offense is built around this TE and it is very important to get it going for Zach. This balanced attack and two TE sets we want to run means that TE will be a big part of the game plan.  TE might be the 1st or 2nd read by design. OVER THE MIDDLE BABY!!!  So TE go ahead and put me down for 85 receptions. About 5 a game. 

RB -

Rising tide lifts all boats - I think that is appropriate but for RB it is much more of switching personnel not adding or subtracting the RB receptions. We threw to the RB a ton and ty j. just sucked. The RB should be much more efficient with the receptions this year. Cater will get his 30-35 receptions again and now Hall will take the rest pretty much. So overall reception numbers will be a wash from last year. get Hall for 45. 80 total!

WR -

Now we get to the fun WR group. This is tricky because it is so hard to glean anything from last years roster - injuries to Zach, the mike white games huge scoring, Corey being hurt, not have TE, etc. etc. I think you almost have to just ignore it. Its not indicative to this this years projections. 

I expect Davis to show up this year and be back to his inconsistent self and healthy, Moore to progress and then our new rook to contribute some as well. Moore and Corey had about 70 receptions put together hurt half the season then Cole/crowder had like 50 each to keep the lights on. It was abysmal. I mean it was really really bad looking at the numbers. That all changes this year.

I think we are going to see a lot of receptions but we cant expect digs, Beasley sanders type of numbers ala 100, 80 and 40 receptions in Buffalo. So I am going to just double Corey and Moore's reception to hope for healthy season from both so put them at about 60 and 80 respectively, that leaves me with our rook and back ups who will get on the field. Lets say 70 or receptions or so, maybe 40 -50 for the rook?

That is 210 reception total from our top three WR's and a few for back ups (cant forget the great Berrios after all @Jetsfan80

That's 375 total. Somewhere in the middle of teams as far as receptions go. I want to say we will do better than that because teams like Detroit hit almost 400 receptions last year, but it think we will have some growing pains and i think our run game will be strong. So this is my prediction and I think it is going to be pretty accurate. GO JETS!!

375 TOTAL RECEPTIONS

80 RB

210 WR

85 TE

 

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