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What are your expectations for Zach Wilson in Year 2?


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50 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:


 

I don’t think a PFF Fantasy Football analyst advocating taking Zach Wilson in Round 13 is a flex like you think it is

You know I’ve been tough on Zach Wilson, but even I would have drafted him in the 13th round. 

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1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

You know I’ve been tough on Zach Wilson, but even I would have definitely drafted him in the 13th round. 

But is he your PREFERRED 13th round choice?  Over the likes of Jared Goff, Drew Lock and Sam Darnold?

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I think it’s important to say Josh Allen was the exception not the rule. In the last few years you tend to know by year 2 whether the QB is going to be the guy or not. Our expectations should be high, there is plenty of pieces around him, 2nd year in the offense, it’s time to show he can play. I don’t want to put hard numbers into it because I think we will know just by watching whether or not he can be the guy we have been waiting for. 

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3 minutes ago, DepressedJetsFan23 said:

I think it’s important to say Josh Allen was the exception not the rule. In the last few years you tend to know by year 2 whether the QB is going to be the guy or not. Our expectations should be high, there is plenty of pieces around him, 2nd year in the offense, it’s time to show he can play. I don’t want to put hard numbers into it because I think we will know just by watching whether or not he can be the guy we have been waiting for. 

Mitch Trubisky had a good 2nd year 

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

I don’t think a PFF Fantasy Football analyst advocating taking Zach Wilson in Round 13 is a flex like you think it is

Except for a non running QB it actually is

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I believe he will have more time to throw, he'll have receivers who get open and CATCH the ball.  He'll have a pair of pass-catching RB's and TE's to dump off to.  And the defense should give him more time on the field.  He just has to take the next step and be better, not great.  My money is on a successful season.  Not the pro-bowl.  Not failure.

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My expectations are very little. I don’t think the kid can play. He was objectively awful last year.
 

Fans need to stop buying into this “year 2 or 3 jump”. Could it happen? Sure, but the chances are very small that Wilson makes it. 

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Take a big step forward from last year. Cut down on turnovers, make some plays, meaning show us why they call you Mormon Mahomes and be the driving contributor to the Jets winning a significant number of games. Zach was the second overall pick, year 2 is time for him to act like it.

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Hoping for a Jets QB to take a leap has been exhausting of late - Sanchez, Darnold, and now Zach.

Usually the hope is driven by performance in a very small sample of the total season (usually a promising late season stretch)  Think Sanchez in the playoffs, or last few games of Darnold's rookie season, or the last few games of Zach's rookie season

I choose to be optimistic… even though all the data suggests the probability of Zach being a franchise QB is much lower after his first year, than when he was drafted.  He is in bad company statistically (with many of those QBs facing similar obstacles on bad teams).  There were promising signs in the last few games but after rewatching and viewing the various analyses on Youtube, it still feels a little over-hyped.

Having said that, Zach has to prove something this year, with the talent assembled. Can’t be “hoping” Zach takes the leap again next year. 

Zach has to be top 20 (which is still below average) in every relevant QB metric (that are relevant regardless of games played - ie YPG, TD/INT, QB Rating, Time to Throw, Completion Percentage, Y/A, TD percentage, Int Rate, PFF Rating)

Even though most don't think Zach is on the hot seat this season, bottom 10 QB play in 2022 will raise questions about his long term future.  In fact, there is more pressure on him than Becton, Mims, or Corey (popular make or break candidates) since the bar for QBs is higher and its the most critical position for team success - especially with a rebuilt roster.

In his second year in a stable QB friendly offense, can Zach's production come close to the rookie seasons of Herbert, Murray, Burrow, Prescott, or even the illustrious Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield, or Gardner Minshew.

IMHO - You can miss me with the Josh Allen comparisons as he is one the biggest outliers in NFL history - and arguably a more talented athlete - size, arm etc;

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5 minutes ago, jNYC1 said:

Hoping for a Jets QB to take a leap has been exhausting of late - Sanchez, Darnold, and now Zach.

Usually the hope is driven by performance in a very small sample of the total season (usually a promising late season stretch)  Think Sanchez in the playoffs, or last few games of Darnold's rookie season, or the last few games of Zach's rookie season

I choose to be optimistic… even though all the data suggests the probability of Zach being a franchise QB is much lower after his first year, than when he was drafted.  He is in bad company statistically (with many of those QBs facing similar obstacles on bad teams).  There were promising signs in the last few games but after rewatching and viewing the various analyses on Youtube, it still feels a little over-hyped.

Having said that, Zach has to prove something this year, with the talent assembled. Can’t be “hoping” Zach takes the leap again next year. 

Zach has to be top 20 (which is still below average) in every relevant QB metric (that are relevant regardless of games played - ie YPG, TD/INT, QB Rating, Time to Throw, Completion Percentage, Y/A, TD percentage, Int Rate, PFF Rating)

Even though most don't think Zach is on the hot seat this season, bottom 10 QB play in 2022 will raise questions about his long term future.  In fact, there is more pressure on him than Becton, Mims, or Corey (popular make or break candidates) since the bar for QBs is higher and its the most critical position for team success - especially with a rebuilt roster.

In his second year in a stable QB friendly offense, can Zach's production come close to the rookie seasons of Herbert, Murray, Burrow, Prescott, or even the illustrious Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield, or Gardner Minshew.

IMHO - You can miss me with the Josh Allen comparisons as he is one the biggest outliers in NFL history - and arguably a more talented athlete - size, arm etc;

Time to throw is not really a great metric. There's a lot of nuance there. For example, in 2021..

1. Some really bad QBs have a fast time to throw (Ben Roethlisberger, Tua Taovailoa, Andy Dalton, Davis Mills)

2. Some great QBs have a low time to throw (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Joe Burrow).

3. Some middle of the pack guys have a low time to throw (Jimmy Garrapolo, Ryan Tannehill, Kick Cousins)

4. Some really bad QBs have a long time to throw (Jameis Winston, Justin Fields, Teddy Bridgewater)

5. Some great QBs have a long time to throw (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen)

6. Some middle of the pack guys have a long time to throw (Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Derek Carr)

 

Now, I'd agree that Zach's time to throw needs to be improved because it's not him buying time or waiting for a play to develop. I just think it would be acceptable if improved it by learning make time / avoid pressure, got the ball out quicker or some combination of both. 

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16 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

Time to throw is not really a great metric. There's a lot of nuance there. For example, in 2021..

1. Some really bad QBs have a fast time to throw (Ben Roethlisberger, Tua Taovailoa, Andy Dalton, Davis Mills)

2. Some great QBs have a low time to throw (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Joe Burrow).

3. Some middle of the pack guys have a low time to throw (Jimmy Garrapolo, Ryan Tannehill, Kick Cousins)

4. Some really bad QBs have a long time to throw (Jameis Winston, Justin Fields, Teddy Bridgewater)

5. Some great QBs have a long time to throw (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen)

6. Some middle of the pack guys have a long time to throw (Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Derek Carr)

 

Now, I'd agree that Zach's time to throw needs to be improved because it's not him buying time or waiting for a play to develop. I just think it would be acceptable if improved it by learning make time / avoid pressure, got the ball out quicker or some combination of both. 

I hear you and would acknowledge the point that it perhaps is not the best metric.  The nuance and variance is interesting to see laid out in your post.

In LaFleur's offense it's safe to say that the offense is built in on getting the ball out quickly so Zach should be top 20 (or least not more than 3 seconds.) 

If Zach balls out holding the ball longer (and playing a lil hero ball) I'd be ok if he missed on that metric.  He was definitely terrible in that metric last year and didn't have enough explosive plays to offset holding the ball too long.

I'd argue the great QBs and Middle of Pack QBs that hold the ball a little long tend to reward the offense with explosive plays (although Derek Carr would be the outlier) with that hypothesis.  I'd be willing to tradeoff longer time to throw if it was delivering explosive plays at a rate that offset the potential sacks/qb hits.

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5 hours ago, jNYC1 said:

I hear you and would acknowledge the point that it perhaps is not the best metric.  The nuance and variance is interesting to see laid out in your post.

In LaFleur's offense it's safe to say that the offense is built in on getting the ball out quickly so Zach should be top 20 (or least not more than 3 seconds.) 

If Zach balls out holding the ball longer (and playing a lil hero ball) I'd be ok if he missed on that metric.  He was definitely terrible in that metric last year and didn't have enough explosive plays to offset holding the ball too long.

I'd argue the great QBs and Middle of Pack QBs that hold the ball a little long tend to reward the offense with explosive plays (although Derek Carr would be the outlier) with that hypothesis.  I'd be willing to tradeoff longer time to throw if it was delivering explosive plays at a rate that offset the potential sacks/qb hits.

Sounds like you're looking at a numerical average (seconds/pass).   MY expectation:  In the instances where they draw up the long ball, and he needs a little extra time, he'll have it.  He didn't have that luxury last season.  Although when he created time for himself (53 yard TD to Davis vs Ten), he threaded the needle 50 yards downfield.  As a Jets fan, I do HOPE Zach breaks out.  As an astute fan of the game, I see it being entirely possible, not impossible.

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15 hours ago, slats said:

I’m not terribly concerned about the TD:int ratio that much (as long as TDs >>> ints!), as long as those top two numbers are somewhat better. Get up around 65% (about league average nowadays), and get that ypa up closer to 8. I want him to be that gunslinger they took #2 overall, and I don’t care if he throws a couple extra picks while he’s being aggressive. He can work on cleaning that up later. For now, let’s push that ball down the field. He’s got weapinz galore this year, he’s gotta put them to use. 

I get the propensity to think this way, given that Zach maximizing his talent would be the best thing for the org overall.

That said, I'm fine with baby steps and as someone who thinks we're going to run the ball really well this year I'm okay with lower YPA and TD totals if he doesn't turn the ball over. I'm not confident (in 2022 that is) Zach trying to do a lot is the best formula for us to succeed -- I'd be very happy with efficient QB play that didn't turn the ball over. Run the ball, get the ball in playmakers hands, take deep shots off play action.

Although I agree, for the scenario I described 60% is probably too low.

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2 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I get the propensity to think this way, given that Zach maximizing his talent would be the best thing for the org overall.

That said, I'm fine with baby steps and as someone who thinks we're going to run the ball really well this year I'm okay with lower YPA and TD totals if he doesn't turn the ball over. I'm not confident (in 2022 that is) Zach trying to do a lot is the best formula for us to succeed -- I'd be very happy with efficient QB play that didn't turn the ball over. Run the ball, get the ball in playmakers hands, take deep shots off play action.

Although I agree, for the scenario I described 60% is probably too low.

I also believe that the Jets intend to run the football a lot, which is why I think anyone hoping/expecting him to throw for 4000 yards or 30 TDs is setting themselves up for disappointment. He’s just not going to have that many attempts. Last year, middle of the pack numbers looked something like 3700 yards, 66% comp, 20-21 TDs, 11-12 ints, and 7.2 ypa. Something like that would have me very pleased. 
 
While I think it’s very important that Zach demonstrates the capability to run the offense efficiently, I want to see some hero ball from him. His escapability and ability to extend plays is a big part of the reason he went #2 overall. I think the running game and massive upgrade at TE will help him with the efficiency. And I think having three or more weapinz on the field who run a sub-4.4 40 should help him get some of those juicy chunk plays. Again, this is counting on at least two rookies contributing right away which makes it difficult to project. MC1 and Moore need to step up as second year players and lead the way. Seeing those flashes is very important to me. I don’t want him to be Alex Smith, I want a gunslinger back there. 

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If Zach Wilson is in fact a "Franchise QB", I would expect him to produce at a similar level to other recent Franchise QB's in their second years.

Talent around Zach is no longer an issue IMO.  This is a talented rebuilt offense supporting him, with high-potential weapons.

So I would expect Zach, if he is what we hope he is, to produce:

  • Start and play a minimum of 15 games, preferably all 17
  • Over 60% Comp. Rate, closer to 65%
  • Somewhere north of 225 Passing YPG, closer to 250 YPG
  • A minimum of a 2:1 TD:INT ratio, and closer to a 3:1 ratio.

This is what Franchise QB's produce for their teams.  Mediocre or non-franchise QB's produce less.

For reference, below you'll find year 2 production numbers for most of if not all of the recently drafted "legit franchisee QB's" and a few fringe guys (like Tua). 

If Zach is a franchise QB, I expect him to produce like these franchise QB's produced.

Recently Drafted "Franchise QB" 2nd Year Passing Production:

Joe Burrow Year 2 - 16 Starts, 70.4% Comp Rate. 288.2 Passing YPG.  34-14 TD-INT.

Tua Tags Year 2 - 12 Starts, 67.8% Comp Rate, 204.1 Passing YPG, 16-10 TD-INT.

Justin Herbert Year 2 - 17 Starts, 65.9% Comp Rate, 294.9 Passing YPG, 38-15 TD-INT.

Kyler Murray Year 2 - 16 Starts, 64.4% Comp Rate, 248.2 Passing YPG, 26-12 TD-INT.

Josh Allen Year 2 - 16 Starts, 58.8% Comp Rate, 193.1 Passing YPG, 20-9 TD-INT.

Lamar Jackson Year 2 - 15 Starts, 66.1% Comp Rate, 208.5 Passing YPG, 36-9 TD-INT.

Patrick Mahomes Year 2 - 16 Starts, 66.0% Comp Rate, 318.6 Passing YPG, 50-12 TD-INT.

Deshaun Watson Year 2 - 16 Starts, 68.3% Comp Rate, 260.3 Passing YPG, 26-9 TD-INT.

Jared Goff Year 2 - 15 Starts, 62.1% Comp Rate, 253.6 Passing YPG, 28-7 TD-INT.

Carson Wentz Year 2 - 13 Starts, 60.2% Comp Rate, 253.5 Passing YPG, 33-7 TD-INT.

NOTE:  What I'm willing to accept (as a fan) and be ok with keeping on with Zach may be less than this level, but until Zach proves he ISN'T a franchise QB, I'm going to expect him to produce like one, being a 2nd overall pick expected to be a Franchise QB.  We can survive with him if he isn't one, if he's "good enough", but I'm not at that "rationalize accepting just good enough" stage with Zach just yet.

 

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30 minutes ago, slats said:

I also believe that the Jets intend to run the football a lot, which is why I think anyone hoping/expecting him to throw for 4000 yards or 30 TDs is setting themselves up for disappointment. He’s just not going to have that many attempts. Last year, middle of the pack numbers looked something like 3700 yards, 66% comp, 20-21 TDs, 11-12 ints, and 7.2 ypa. Something like that would have me very pleased. 
 
While I think it’s very important that Zach demonstrates the capability to run the offense efficiently, I want to see some hero ball from him. His escapability and ability to extend plays is a big part of the reason he went #2 overall. I think the running game and massive upgrade at TE will help him with the efficiency. And I think having three or more weapinz on the field who run a sub-4.4 40 should help him get some of those juicy chunk plays. Again, this is counting on at least two rookies contributing right away which makes it difficult to project. MC1 and Moore need to step up as second year players and lead the way. Seeing those flashes is very important to me. I don’t want him to be Alex Smith, I want a gunslinger back there. 

Yeah, I don't think we're too far apart here. I certainly don't want Alex Smith I just read your comments to be more toward the 30+ TD 4000 yard type stats from a gunslinger who's also throwing 20+ picks.

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10 hours ago, LongTimeJetFan said:

My expectations are very little. I don’t think the kid can play. He was objectively awful last year.
 

Fans need to stop buying into this “year 2 or 3 jump”. Could it happen? Sure, but the chances are very small that Wilson makes it. 

Dude/Dudette - the whole team was awful last year.

hopefully FAs and the draft will help both Zach and the team.

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It will be interesting to me to see how much we tolerate growing pains.  Last year everybody was off their rockers looking to fire everybody after the slow start.  They have improved the team, but they will be playing a new RG, an LT that barely played, 3 new TEs with no real holdover and new #2ish WR.  Hall will be new too, but we have seen young RBs start strong recently and they still have the top options from last season.

Similarly on D they will be adding 2 new CBs, 2 new EDGE (and one that didn't play last season), new safety, plus who knows at LB?  

I think that things will be much better than last season since they seem to have the system in place.  I was going to mention something to that effect in the triumvirate thread.  Maybe I still will.  It is easier to plug new guys into an established system than to have everybody learning at once.  I still don't expect it to be seemless and I think the sum of the improvements will take some time to equal the parts.

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1 hour ago, Dwight Englewood said:

We failed Wilson by not trading 7 first round picks for a #1 WR

I predict many will blame the coaches for not developing him… particularly Saleh.

Even though the team has done everything possible to coach him up… and LaFleur was able to get 300yd + games out of Josh Johnson and Mike White.

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