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Jets have the most popular "over" bet at Caesars


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17 games not 16.  From a pure roster perspective the talent is substantially upgraded the past 2 years.  And most importantly, on paper the jets actually have weapons on offense. It also suggests that bettors understand that wilson is poised to take a step forward in development.  But even just within the division, you compare rb/te/wr on paper and the jets are better than NE and if the draft picks are legit, they could challenge the bills as best offensive weapons in the division.

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17 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

17 games not 16.  From a pure roster perspective the talent is substantially upgraded the past 2 years.  And most importantly, on paper the jets actually have weapons on offense. It also suggests that bettors understand that wilson is poised to take a step forward in development.  But even just within the division, you compare rb/te/wr on paper and the jets are better than NE and if the draft picks are legit, they could challenge the bills as best offensive weapons in the division.

It's a little frightening though that our line is still 5.5.  I realize that that number is only half of the bet.   The other half is the odds (like "bet $150 to win $100") which changes things quite a bit.  But the fact that they're stuck on that number makes me think Vegas believes the Jets actual win total will be around 5-6.

We do have lot of changes on this team (between free agents and draft picks being instant starters) plus a questionable 2nd year QB and an unproven HC.  That plus what looks to be a very tough schedule.  

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12 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

It's a little frightening though that our line is still 5.5.  I realize that that number is only half of the bet.   The other half is the odds (like "bet $150 to win $100") which changes things quite a bit.  But the fact that they're stuck on that number makes me think Vegas believes the Jets actual win total will be around 5-6.

We do have lot of changes on this team (between free agents and draft picks being instant starters) plus a questionable 2nd year QB and an unproven HC.  That plus what looks to be a very tough schedule.  

IMO line hasn’t moved b/c wilson is still a big unknown.  But if the offensive weapons are legit the jets should be scoring, something they haven’t done in many years.  Wilson barely played with a lead.  And if becton actually plays they may be able to have a real powerful running attack too and flip time of possession.  It’s all an unknown.  But 6 wins out of 17 games with a young team and a big influx of talent seems like a reasonable bet.

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2 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Thank you Joe Douglas, thank you. 

That’s not a good thing.

Money pouring into the over means Vegas cashes in if the Jets go under.

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19 minutes ago, Facts said:

Money pouring into the over means Vegas cashes in if the Jets go under.

 

6 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

The over is easy money. I’m not surprised at all there - if I bet on sports I would make that bet 100% of the time right now

I love this country.

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2 hours ago, The Crusher said:

Thank you Joe Douglas, thank you. 

 

2 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

It's a little frightening though that our line is still 5.5.  I realize that that number is only half of the bet.   The other half is the odds (like "bet $150 to win $100") which changes things quite a bit. 

The odds (ouctome:bet ratio) is how Vegas adjusts things while leaving the line unchanged.  In fact, it probably helps them draw more money in than is warranted because some less experienced bettors don't understand that as well, thinking they bet $100 to win $100.  Once the number reaches the level it's at now for the Jets (around -145 on most sites) that indicates the O/U line may be close to moving up to 6.  I'm not sure if the odds reset back to 100 at that point or not.

I'm no expert on this, but the interesting question is, would you rather bet 5.5 at -145 or 6 at 100?  I'm not sure myself but would love some thoughts from anyone on this.

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9 minutes ago, BigRy56 said:

The over is easy money. I’m not surprised at all there - if I bet on sports I would make that bet 100% of the time right now

There's no such thing as easy money 

 

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Meanwhile, Vegas has the Giants up to 7.5 wins.  I would imagine some of that has to do with playing in the NFC but that still a full 2 games (admittedly just a gambling projection) better than us.  But both teams were awful last year (picked 4th and 5th overall) and both teams had great drafts.  The Jets probably had a better offseason overall than the Giants but both teams did make major improvements.  But they Giants are projected 2 games better than us.  Crazy!

Btw, all of these lines have the half point in them so I guess it's a "whole win step" (e.g. our next option from 5.5 wouldn't be 6, but rather 6.5).

 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/win-totals/

New York Giants 7.5 (Last Season - 4)

New York Jets 5.5 (Last Season - 4)

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9 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Meanwhile, Vegas has the Giants up to 7.5 wins.  I would imagine some of that has to do with playing in the NFC but that still a full 2 games (admittedly just a gambling projection) better than us.  But both teams were awful last year (picked 4th and 5th overall) and both teams had great drafts.  The Jets probably had a better offseason overall than the Giants but both teams did make major improvements.  But they Giants are projected 2 games better than us.  Crazy!

Btw, all of these lines have the half point in them so I guess it's a "whole win step" (e.g. our next option from 5.5 wouldn't be 6, but rather 6.5).

 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/win-totals/

New York Giants 7.5 (Last Season - 4)

New York Jets 5.5 (Last Season - 4)

definitely that division.   jets clearly have a better roster.

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20 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Meanwhile, Vegas has the Giants up to 7.5 wins.  I would imagine some of that has to do with playing in the NFC but that still a full 2 games (admittedly just a gambling projection) better than us.  But both teams were awful last year (picked 4th and 5th overall) and both teams had great drafts.  The Jets probably had a better offseason overall than the Giants but both teams did make major improvements.  But they Giants are projected 2 games better than us.  Crazy!

Btw, all of these lines have the half point in them so I guess it's a "whole win step" (e.g. our next option from 5.5 wouldn't be 6, but rather 6.5).

 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/win-totals/

New York Giants 7.5 (Last Season - 4)

New York Jets 5.5 (Last Season - 4)

It’s not crazy at all, the jets are in a much better division and conference and playing a harder schedule 

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As a fan, I’m very excited about the potential this team currently has. As a bettor, I’d need to realize that it’s all still potential at this point. A lot of good vibes around the team, but those good feelings are all about a handful of first and second year players tapping that potential. In reality, that’s probably a pretty tall order. By all means, I love the enthusiasm, but I wouldn’t put the mortgage down on this “easy money” bet just yet. 

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at -150 odds, the Jets over 5.5 is a dumb bet.  I'd be inclined to do it at -110 to even money. But -150?  That means the books think it is fairly likely the Jets hit the over.  If you want to discuss the bet, fine, but the 'value' of the bet all depends on the odds. For -150, I don't even think I'd bet over 4.5, let alone 5.5.   There should be more interesting futures bets with better odds than that somewhere.

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