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Jets have the most popular "over" bet at Caesars


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16 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

Vegas couldn't care less how many games the Jets win. Vegas' only concern is setting the line so there's even money on both sides. They take their cut, then use Peter to pay Paul. Bank.

Exactly.  And the books will juice it to make sure the betting money and payouts produce a profit even if they set the line too low and more people will jump on the over.  I guess people are all over the over 5.5 on this so that's why the line is about -150. ($150 bet gets $250 return, $100 profit).  Whether you're a Jets fan or not that's a very bad bet AFAIC.

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2 hours ago, Jet9 said:

Fade The Public.

This is the way to make money in sportsbook 

It's not going to be comfortable 

It's not going to be popular 

But the house always wins

Anyone who lacks the fortitude to bet against their hometown team shouldn't be betting at all 

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35 minutes ago, FootballLove said:

Vegas couldn't care less how many games the Jets win. Vegas' only concern is setting the line so there's even money on both sides. They take their cut, then use Peter to pay Paul. Bank.

This is true for spread games. 

The season over unders are designed to separate Homers from their money on over bets. They do not get equal action on the unders and that's priced in too 

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They juiced the over immediately following the draft. Indicates Vegas believes we go 6+. I expect the number will jump to 6.5 if we make it out of training camp without major injuries 

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4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

This is the way to make money in sportsbook 

It's not going to be comfortable 

It's not going to be popular 

But the house always wins

Anyone who lacks the fortitude to bet against their hometown team shouldn't be betting at all 

I'm relatively new to it (3 years). I dove in head first but have learned A LOT. This is one of them. Also that the sports you 'know' don't necessarily reflect how well you bet. I'm good at hockey and it's my favorite sport. That said, I love football but I am not very good so I rarely bet it. I'm very good at college basketball and while I like it, I don't like it the way I like the other 2 and baseball. Strange stuff. 

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22 minutes ago, J_Smith said:

They juiced the over immediately following the draft. Indicates Vegas believes we go 6+. I expect the number will jump to 6.5 if we make it out of training camp without major injuries 

Good point 

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6 minutes ago, Jet9 said:

I'm relatively new to it (3 years). I dove in head first but have learned A LOT. This is one of them. Also that the sports you 'know' don't necessarily reflect how well you bet. I'm good at hockey and it's my favorite sport. That said, I love football but I am not very good so I rarely bet it. I'm very good at college basketball and while I like it, I don't like it the way I like the other 2 and baseball. Strange stuff. 

Sports betting is the most peculiar thing.  I try not to let my NY fandom influence the bets, but I'm sure I succumb at times.  Believe it or not, I do best at betting MLB.   I was burned so badly by NFL last season (a bit worse than even for NBA and college hoops). I had a good bankroll from MLB up considerably over the season...   only to see my NFL bets strip it down to a pittance and then have the NBA and college hoops send me into the blackhole.

Thankful MLB is back.  So far doing very well with it.  It's so much easier than all the others.

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17 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Sports betting is the most peculiar thing.  I try not to let my NY fandom influence the bets, but I'm sure I succumb at times.  Believe it or not, I do best at betting MLB.   I was burned so badly by NFL last season (a bit worse than even for NBA and college hoops). I had a good bankroll from MLB up considerably over the season...   only to see my NFL bets strip it down to a pittance and then have the NBA and college hoops send me into the blackhole.

Thankful MLB is back.  So far doing very well with it.  It's so much easier than all the others.

Same. NFL killed me early last year. Did ok on C-USA and Sun Belt but overall still not great in CFB. This is the first year I'm really taking MLB as serious as NHL and CBB and so far so good. Long season though. It's a grind.

 

ETA: I royally suck at golf matchups so I knocked that off too, lol.

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42 minutes ago, bitonti said:

This is the way to make money in sportsbook 

It's not going to be comfortable 

It's not going to be popular 

But the house always wins

Anyone who lacks the fortitude to bet against their hometown team shouldn't be betting at all 

They shouldn't be betting at all because sports is too hard. 

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The house always has an advantage and always wins in the long run.

Forget the odds and just look at the win total. If Becton is out more than half the season and Zach doesn't take a step up combined with the brutal schedule Jets will be fortunate to win 5 games.

On the other hand, if Becton comes back motivated and Zach plays like a top 15 QB eight wins is very possible.

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1 hour ago, Jet9 said:

Same. NFL killed me early last year. Did ok on C-USA and Sun Belt but overall still not great in CFB. This is the first year I'm really taking MLB as serious as NHL and CBB and so far so good. Long season though. It's a grind.

 

ETA: I royally suck at golf matchups so I knocked that off too, lol.

Know your good and sh*tty bullpens.  Starters are paramount, but I'll stick to 'first 5' if the bullpen can't be trusted (like last years' Angels' pen).  This is the one sport, where knowing your stats pays big dividends.  You need to know which teams kick the crap out of lefties... which do poorly byt hem. Same for righties.  It's a stat festival and is not ruined by the umps the way the NFL is by their refs.  It's just far easier to make a smart bet in MLB based on pitching staffs and opposing hitting s those types of ptichers.  

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3 minutes ago, Dcat said:

Know your good and sh*tty bullpens.  Starters are paramount, but I'll stick to 'first 5' if the bullpen can't be trusted (like last years' Angels' pen).  This is the one sport, where knowing your stats pays big dividends.  You need to know which teams kick the crap out of lefties... which do poorly byt hem. Same for righties.  It's a stat festival and is not ruined by the umps the way the NFL is by their refs.  It's just far easier to make a smart bet in MLB based on pitching staffs and opposing hitting s those types of ptichers.  

Yes! I catch myself betting 1st 5 more often than not lately. Also I take the ML over the spread on 1st 5. Push is way better than Loss. 

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1 hour ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Everyone but the majority of jet fans can see what Joe Douglas is building here.  Of course its the most popular over bet.  We have arrived Jet Fans.  Its happening!!!!!!!!!!!

First 9 games 

3-6

Last 8 games

4-4

I see a 7-10 team at worst.

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13 minutes ago, Bronx said:

First 9 games 

3-6

Last 8 games

4-4

I see a 7-10 team at worst.

Ill break it down in quarters:

1st 4: 2-2   Beating the Ravens and Steelers

Next 4: 2-2 Beating Miami and NE

Next 4: 1-3 only beating Chicago

Last 5: 4-1 Beating Lions, Jags, Seahawks and Dolphins

I see us at 9-8 and if the ball bounces our way a few times, a 10 or 11 win season.

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3 hours ago, bitonti said:

Rooting for the Jets is hard, and yet, here we are 

If you're not independently capable of making a living doing math, sports betting is the most -ev way there is to try to monetize a hobby. If you are independently capable of making a living doing math, it is probably somewhat less -ev than prostitution. Rooting for the Jets isn't that hard.

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36 minutes ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

If you're not independently capable of making a living doing math, sports betting is the most -ev way there is to try to monetize a hobby. If you are independently capable of making a living doing math, it is probably somewhat less -ev than prostitution. Rooting for the Jets isn't that hard.

I make a living doing math and if this is a zero joke then yep that's pretty accurate for me. 

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6 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Probably because this is one of those instances where everyone thinks they are outsmarting Vegas but they really aren't because nobody does

 

11 hours ago, ECURB said:

Vegas thinks they will win 4 games?

Maybe, but that’s not usually how lines work.  Bookies doesn’t usually choose sides, they adjust to have action both ways 

If I had to guess, I’d say the under has significant action also

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Meanwhile, Vegas has the Giants up to 7.5 wins.  I would imagine some of that has to do with playing in the NFC but that still a full 2 games (admittedly just a gambling projection) better than us.  But both teams were awful last year (picked 4th and 5th overall) and both teams had great drafts.  The Jets probably had a better offseason overall than the Giants but both teams did make major improvements.  But they Giants are projected 2 games better than us.  Crazy!
Btw, all of these lines have the half point in them so I guess it's a "whole win step" (e.g. our next option from 5.5 wouldn't be 6, but rather 6.5).
 
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/win-totals/
New York Giants 7.5 (Last Season - 4)
New York Jets 5.5 (Last Season - 4)
2022 Strength of Schedule (based on 2021 W-L)
1.) Rams — .567

2.) Cardinals — .543

3.) Bengals — .536

4.) Buccaneers — .535

T-5.) 49ers — .533

T-5.) Chiefs — .533

T-7.) Raiders — .528

T-7.) Saints — .528

9.) Falcons — .524

10.) Chargers — .519

11.) Seahawks — .517

T-12.) Steelers — .512

T-12.) Panthers — .512

T-12) Bills — .512

15.) Broncos —.509

16.) Patriots —.498

T-17.) Jets — .495

T-17.) Browns — .495

19.) Texans — .488

20.) Vikings — .484

21.) Dolphins — .481

22.) Packers —.478

23.) Ravens — .474

T-24.) Bears — .471

T-24.) Titans —.471

T-26.) Jaguars — .469

T-26.) Colts —.469

28.) Lions — .467

29.) Giants — .465

30.) Eagles —.464

T-31.) Commanders — .462

T-31.) Cowboys — .462

Previous year's W-L is not always highly predictive, but it's all we really have
And meanwhile, the AFC East has improved as well, for the most part, so 2021 W-L, so you could argue the AFC West and East are both a likely stronger than their 2021 records suggest.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk


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Oh great...

 

Louie the Bat is going to be visiting out biggest difference maker and doing his best Tonya Harding impersonation...

I have no idea who the difference maker will be on this team, but someone is frigged.

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