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The reason why it's so hard to predict how the Jets will do this year.


Alka
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The reason why it's so hard to predict how the Jets will do this year has nothing to do with talent, because in my view, there is a lot of it on this team.  It has nothing to do with my confidence in Zach, because with the players around him on offense, I am confident that they will succeed.  I have confidence in the coaching, and I have confidence that most of the other teams on our schedule are beatable by this Jets team.

So, why is it so hard to predict how the Jets will do this year?  

It has everything to do with injuries, because it seems that every year, the Jets suffer devastating injuries in key positions on this team which handicap their ability to compete.  When I see the over/under for the Jets at 5.5 wins, I say that this team will blow that total away.  But with key injuries, it all of a sudden becomes likely that the Jets will end up winning 3, 4 or 5 games.

So, which key players might get injured?  I have no idea.  But, just like clockwork, it's been happening ever single year, and the injuries just pile on, and the expectations of the team slide into the abyss.  

We all can't wait for the preseason to start, and the season to get under way.  I guess I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop.  My mind keeps telling me that the injuries are going to happen, and there is nothing I can do about it.  Maybe this is the year that key injuries won't happen, and I'm just being a Debbie downer.  

I really hope so.  It would be so nice to go into the season with a fairly healthy group of players that we know will make a difference.  I wonder if the odds makers are counting on the Jets injuries, or if they just believe that the players the Jets have aren't good enough.  If the latter is the case, then the odds makers are in for a rude awakening.  With a healthy roster, this team will take off like a rocket ship.  We will see.

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We have depth this year so injuries wont affect us as much. Every team goes through injuries.  Its not a "Jets" thing.  We now have the depth to overcome that thanks to Joe Douglas.

Lets stop focusing on all the "bad" things that good happen and lets get ready for the great season we are about to have.

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15 minutes ago, Alka said:

The reason why it's so hard to predict how the Jets will do this year has nothing to do with talent, because in my view, there is a lot of it on this team.  It has nothing to do with my confidence in Zach, because with the players around him on offense, I am confident that they will succeed.  I have confidence in the coaching, and I have confidence that most of the other teams on our schedule are beatable by this Jets team.

So, why is it so hard to predict how the Jets will do this year?  

It has everything to do with injuries, because it seems that every year, the Jets suffer devastating injuries in key positions on this team which handicap their ability to compete.  When I see the over/under for the Jets at 5.5 wins, I say that this team will blow that total away.  But with key injuries, it all of a sudden becomes likely that the Jets will end up winning 3, 4 or 5 games.

So, which key players might get injured?  I have no idea.  But, just like clockwork, it's been happening ever single year, and the injuries just pile on, and the expectations of the team slide into the abyss.  

We all can't wait for the preseason to start, and the season to get under way.  I guess I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop.  My mind keeps telling me that the injuries are going to happen, and there is nothing I can do about it.  Maybe this is the year that key injuries won't happen, and I'm just being a Debbie downer.  

I really hope so.  It would be so nice to go into the season with a fairly healthy group of players that we know will make a difference.  I wonder if the odds makers are counting on the Jets injuries, or if they just believe that the players the Jets have aren't good enough.  If the latter is the case, then the odds makers are in for a rude awakening.  With a healthy roster, this team will take off like a rocket ship.  We will see.

I was expecting a picture of Zach Wilson, I have disappoint, 

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6 minutes ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

How many of these "lost" games would the player suited up if we were winning? 

These injuries stack up on losing teams because the players don't want to play in pain for a meaningless game. 

Certainly something to that for sure. 

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25 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Jets had the fourth most man-games-missed by starters due to injury last season.  There is definitely correlation between that metric and success.

"At the bottom of the injury list was Detroit, which lost 134 games by starters.  Second worst was Baltimore (125), followed by the New York Giants (115), the New York Jets (113) and the Washington Football Team (111)."

113 games missed by starters equates to an average of 6.65 starters out per game.  BUF, by comparison had a number of 36, which is just over 2 starters out per game.  That's a problem.

I think we're pretty consistently towards the top of this list since ... well, Sal Alosi left.

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5 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I think we're pretty consistently towards the top of this list since ... well, Sal Alosi left.

Worst in 2019.  4th Worst in 2020.  5th Worst in 2021.  We're getting there slowly :(

 

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54 minutes ago, Alka said:

The reason why it's so hard to predict how the Jets will do this year has nothing to do with talent, because in my view, there is a lot of it on this team.  It has nothing to do with my confidence in Zach, because with the players around him on offense, I am confident that they will succeed.  I have confidence in the coaching, and I have confidence that most of the other teams on our schedule are beatable by this Jets team.

So, why is it so hard to predict how the Jets will do this year?  

It has everything to do with injuries, because it seems that every year, the Jets suffer devastating injuries in key positions on this team which handicap their ability to compete.  When I see the over/under for the Jets at 5.5 wins, I say that this team will blow that total away.  But with key injuries, it all of a sudden becomes likely that the Jets will end up winning 3, 4 or 5 games.

So, which key players might get injured?  I have no idea.  But, just like clockwork, it's been happening ever single year, and the injuries just pile on, and the expectations of the team slide into the abyss.  

We all can't wait for the preseason to start, and the season to get under way.  I guess I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop.  My mind keeps telling me that the injuries are going to happen, and there is nothing I can do about it.  Maybe this is the year that key injuries won't happen, and I'm just being a Debbie downer.  

I really hope so.  It would be so nice to go into the season with a fairly healthy group of players that we know will make a difference.  I wonder if the odds makers are counting on the Jets injuries, or if they just believe that the players the Jets have aren't good enough.  If the latter is the case, then the odds makers are in for a rude awakening.  With a healthy roster, this team will take off like a rocket ship.  We will see.

Saleh said it sort of quickly but he has made a number of changes to keep people healthier. First there will be less full out 1 on 1s especially for the pass rushers as they think that can lead to bodies breaking down. Second they will do more 7 on 7. Saleh does not like 7 on 7 but says they will be creative. Both changes are designed to reduce wear and tear. I am sure they are doing a lot of other adjustments.

I still maintain they should move the stadium to grass.

We have been ridiculously unhealthy for a while. We do have more depth this year so hopefully that will help as well.

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3 minutes ago, kevinc855 said:

Hate to do it to the kid, but its on Zach.

Basically, will he be good or not?

Agreed. The ugly truth is that despite JD building what looks like a wonderful team around him, if he flunks out we are screwed. Teams like the Broncos are proof of this, because they have sucked without an FQB despite building a really good team.

You can give examples of exceptions like the Ravens with Flacco and the Bears with McMahon, but those are very rare and unlikely to be the case here.

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5 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Both changes are designed to reduce wear and tear. I am sure they are doing a lot of other adjustments.

I always wondered if this really helps.....Either way Week 1 you are getting smashed around 

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We’re all excited, largely because of the last two drafts. That’s what I think is the biggest variable. How well do Elijah and MC1 perform in their second years? How good will Sauce, GW, JJ, and Breece be right out of the gate? What’s the learning curve gonna look like on the youngest team in the league for the second year in a row? And, of course, do Zack and Saleh take a giant step forward? It could all go either way, but I suspect it’ll be somewhere in between. Not all of these guys are gonna hit these ceilings we have in our imaginations right off the bat. There’s gonna be some growing pains, still. 

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1 hour ago, Alka said:

The reason why it's so hard to predict how the Jets will do this year has nothing to do with talent, because in my view, there is a lot of it on this team.  It has nothing to do with my confidence in Zach, because with the players around him on offense, I am confident that they will succeed.  I have confidence in the coaching, and I have confidence that most of the other teams on our schedule are beatable by this Jets team.

So, why is it so hard to predict how the Jets will do this year?  

It has everything to do with injuries, because it seems that every year, the Jets suffer devastating injuries in key positions on this team which handicap their ability to compete.  When I see the over/under for the Jets at 5.5 wins, I say that this team will blow that total away.  But with key injuries, it all of a sudden becomes likely that the Jets will end up winning 3, 4 or 5 games.

So, which key players might get injured?  I have no idea.  But, just like clockwork, it's been happening ever single year, and the injuries just pile on, and the expectations of the team slide into the abyss.  

We all can't wait for the preseason to start, and the season to get under way.  I guess I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop.  My mind keeps telling me that the injuries are going to happen, and there is nothing I can do about it.  Maybe this is the year that key injuries won't happen, and I'm just being a Debbie downer.  

I really hope so.  It would be so nice to go into the season with a fairly healthy group of players that we know will make a difference.  I wonder if the odds makers are counting on the Jets injuries, or if they just believe that the players the Jets have aren't good enough.  If the latter is the case, then the odds makers are in for a rude awakening.  With a healthy roster, this team will take off like a rocket ship.  We will see.

You are right about the injury concerns, but with a very young roster that is also bring down the projected win total.

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58 minutes ago, slats said:

We’re all excited, largely because of the last two drafts. That’s what I think is the biggest variable. How well do Elijah and MC1 perform in their second years? How good will Sauce, GW, JJ, and Breece be right out of the gate? What’s the learning curve gonna look like on the youngest team in the league for the second year in a row? And, of course, do Zack and Saleh take a giant step forward? It could all go either way, but I suspect it’ll be somewhere in between. Not all of these guys are gonna hit these ceilings we have in our imaginations right off the bat. There’s gonna be some growing pains, still. 

 

45 minutes ago, Darnold's Forehead said:

Becton, Moore, Lawson...  Really hoping these 3 can have a 17 game season.

+1

Slats list is pretty good, but Becton will be a huge question mark.  Both for injury and performance.  He has the ability to be very good, but we aren't hedging with a guy like Morgan Moses (yet?) this year.  The offensive line seemed like a problem early in the year.  By the end it was a strength.  A right side of Tomlinson and Becton could really carve some rushing lanes, but if Becton falls on his face things might get ugly.

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1 hour ago, nycdan said:

Worst in 2019.  4th Worst in 2020.  5th Worst in 2021.  We're getting there slowly :(

 

What are the odds to be in the top 5…(most injured)…for 3 straight years?  How bout we just wish to be “middle of the pack?” ..in 22
 

Id settle for that.   Would be a refreshing surprise.

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The Titans had the most injuries in the NFL and won the AFC last year.   Historical injuries are not why the Jets are hard to predict.  The Jets are hard to predict because their team is largely built off 2nd year players and rookies, namely, the most important piece to his puzzle, Zach Wilson.  Unfortunately, that's other reason why this is hard to predict because nobody has a clue who Zach Wilson is/going to be.  He's nothing at all like advertised, so we're all just in limbo to see who he truly is when he actually reveals himself and because he was so bad last year, it's impossible to know how he's grown without seeing it in action

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Its about 70% on Zach - 15% on Saleh/coaching staff - 15% tied between some new major acquisitions who haven't proved themselves yet (Becton, rookies, Lawson, etc.) 

Jets have been plagued w/ injuries but I still tend to believe outside of guys like Lawson and Becton those are more random and the Jets have simply gotten unlucky. If you took injuries off how many wins do you project? If Lawson, Becton, ZW, Elijah, JFM, QW, Sauce all get injured - no sh*t we won't win as many games.... but look what happened to the Ravens last year - they got decimated by injuries as well - they had a down year - it happens. 

Ultimately JD has done enough to keep this ship afloat. Yes that is assuming the rookies step in day 1 and maybe some younger guys like Elijah, QW, Becton grow as well. However, there is enough talent and depth to say Zach (and to a lesser degree the coaching staff) how far can you take us... ultimately he is the variable that will dictate what this team record will be. 

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19 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

The Titans had the most injuries in the NFL and won the AFC last year.   Historical injuries are not why the Jets are hard to predict.  The Jets are hard to predict because their team is largely built off 2nd year players and rookies, namely, the most important piece to his puzzle, Zach Wilson.  Unfortunately, that's other reason why this is hard to predict because nobody has a clue who Zach Wilson is/going to be.  He's nothing at all like advertised, so we're all just in limbo to see who he truly is when he actually reveals himself and because he was so bad last year, it's impossible to know how he's grown without seeing it in action

I saw some videos that say he was awesome.  You mean they aren't true? 

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Good to get Ravens week one. They are tough out anytime. Good to get Clev. likely w/o Watson. I'd say we got as good as we could have hoped for. Playoff contenders in December. Let's GOOOOO!

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It's become lazy to say it "all falls on Zach", but it really does.  If he's the goods, this team has the look of one with a really high ceiling.  The range of outcomes is pretty wide.

But if he's not, I still think the team can be somewhat competitive and be a place where an above average QB (or perhaps even better) might like to be if the given the chance.  Since I don't believe in Zach, that's the exciting part to me for the time being.  

In other words, I believe we're a "QB away", which is a much, much better place to be than we were in 2020.   

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4 hours ago, Hex said:

Agreed. The ugly truth is that despite JD building what looks like a wonderful team around him, if he flunks out we are screwed. Teams like the Broncos are proof of this, because they have sucked without an FQB despite building a really good team.

You can give examples of exceptions like the Ravens with Flacco and the Bears with McMahon, but those are very rare and unlikely to be the case here.

true enough that wilson needs to show more but it's way too easy to lay it all on him.  lots of sub par qb's have made it to the superbowl. remember there are losers too like grossman, collins, morton, eason, boomer, chandler, delhomme, goff.  right now the jets should be fielding the best team we've seen in a long while.  and if wilson somehow fizzles, mike white and flacco are both good enough to manage games.  keep these guys clean and with a good run game and there's not much to worry about.

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