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Moore Vs Wilson


BurntDice
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So I’ve been trying to think who is a better prospect Garrett Wilson or Elijah Moore? 
 

Wilson is a bit taller, but for me Moore is better. Super crisp route running, can find holes in zone with ease. Wilson may have a higher ceiling. 
 

I like both and hope that they become super stars. Who did you like better coming out and why?

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Moore was analytically a better prospect and I think a far safer bet to be a quality contributor coming out, but guys coming from loaded offenses like Wilson are really hard to evaluate on numbers alone and he was productive with good tools so I get the appeal.

I like that they can both play inside out. Hopefully the Jets have a 1-2 punch for the next decade.

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Wilson can jump and aggressively attacks the ball out of the air.   I think he might be a target for 50/50 balls.  Moore could add that as well but I think his issue when a defender was on him was waiting for the ball just a little.  
 

Wilson had some quick cuts and moves that might be special - need to see him against NFL CBs to know.  Moore seems to run better routes.  
 

Moore is really good.   I see him more as a slot with HR potential on every play. Everyone else in Jets world sees him as outside WR though lol.  

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I think Wilson is the better prospect because he’s more of a complete WR. Wilson is better at yac and can high point the ball. Moore’s character is exceptional though. I think he’s the kind of guy that will make everyone in that WR room better.

Wilson is better but not by much. I do believe Moore would have been drafted in the 1st this year. Maybe even back to back in that Olave slot. 

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21 hours ago, derp said:

Moore was analytically a better prospect and I think a far safer bet to be a quality contributor coming out, but guys coming from loaded offenses like Wilson are really hard to evaluate on numbers alone and he was productive with good tools so I get the appeal.

I like that they can both play inside out. Hopefully the Jets have a 1-2 punch for the next decade.

I agree that Moore at least short term will be a more consistent target. He’s just so good at getting open and has very solid hands. 
 

in 2-3 years? Who knows, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Wilson is better. He has more physical upside, but has to grow a bit in terms of beating press and getting open on a consistent basis. His route running is good, but not on moores level.  
 

Msybe I’m crazy, but I see a young drama free AB in Moore. 
 

Now if only Mims can step up that’ll be a hell of a trio 

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If you are asking strictly what I thought of them as prospects coming out, I had Wilson above Moore.  I thought Moore would be a gadget player and did not realize how good a route runner he is.  He is a more complete receiver than I expected.  I had Wilson as my #1 WR in this draft.  Moore probably was not top 5 for me last year.  He was much better as a rookie than I expected. 

Hard to judge the two right now, since I have not seen Wilson at the pro level.  Happy we have them both though.

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On 5/14/2022 at 10:54 AM, BurntDice said:

I agree that Moore at least short term will be a more consistent target. He’s just so good at getting open and has very solid hands. 
 

in 2-3 years? Who knows, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Wilson is better. He has more physical upside, but has to grow a bit in terms of beating press and getting open on a consistent basis. His route running is good, but not on moores level.  
 

Msybe I’m crazy, but I see a young drama free AB in Moore. 
 

Now if only Mims can step up that’ll be a hell of a trio 

Been continuing to think about this. Wide receiver prospects are complicated.

On a really high level, I think there are two big things that wide receivers can bring to the table - big play ability and the ability to produce on volume. I think to be a good pro you need to bring at least one of those things to the table, and the large majority of the truly special wide receivers in the league can do both of those things. There are a lot of ways you can do each of those things.

Guys can create big plays because they're big and fast enough and elite on the boundary so they're threats for deep passes, because they're fast so they're threats for deep passes, maybe both, because they're elite after the catch due to some combination of strength/speed/vision/change of direction, a mix of being downfield threats and good after the catch, or I'm sure there are thins I'm missing.

Being a volume threat can come via route running/quickness and/or size/contested ability and is usually paired with excellent hands. Volume guys can play out wide but increasingly they work out of the slot area.

 

Coming into the league, I think you either need to be really, really sure that a guy is going to bring one of those things to the table or ideally you hope that he can do both. Boils down to looking at a mix of traits and production.

If we want guys to be able to produce on volume, production is a key component of that. And I think the thing that's translated best is college market share of receiving production - the guy who had 1,000 yards on an offense that passed for 2,000 is more impressive than the guy who had 1,000 yards on an offense that passed for 5,000. If a guy's college didn't think they needed to run the passing offense through him, it's not impossible but difficult to get to the point that he's good enough that a pro offense is going to feel that way. And, if he's never been asked to be the go-to guy, how do we know that he's actually capable of it? Lots of hits, producing through defensive attention, etc.

Ultimately that gets really complicated for guys who have come from schools with elite receiver rooms - like Garrett Wilson. Ohio State was pretty loaded at wide receiver, probably three guys who go top 11 in their respective drafts. Wilson beat out Jameson Williams for a role at OSU and Williams went 12th after an ACL injury sustained at the end of a monster year at Alabama where he leapfrogged a guy who was supposed to be a first round pick for their targets. All that said - we genuinely don't know if Wilson is really capable of being the guy on an offense. Ohio State never asked him to shoulder a heavy load on their offense, and they didn't really need him to.

Not being the guy in college isn't something that disqualifies him from being the guy at the pro level, Justin Jefferson ran behind Ja'Marr Chase and is absolutely elite - but the flip side is I think even Jefferson had a higher proportion of LSU's passing yards than Wilson did OSU's. Maybe DK Metcalf, but he was a completely different level of freak athlete. We know Wilson can create explosive plays and produce as part of a good offense - and maybe that's all he needs to do on an offense that now has a decent amount of skill position talent, be a threat and put up some numbers. But I don't think we really have a good sense of his #1, elite receiver potential.

Moore honestly was a better size adjusted athlete coming out of college, he's just shorter and I don't think can win off the ground or in contested situations the way Wilson can. But Moore was an absolute volume monster his last year at Ole Miss AND created big plays. He came into the pros as a pretty ready made high volume slot weapon with big play upside, and I think he could've been a monster last year if he was on a good offense and stayed healthy. Slot guys with change of direction and good route running are kind of a cheat code for easy passing game yardage, and him being a vertical slot on top of that made him pretty dangerous. Wilson has the size, but in terms of being a productive pro Moore's a cleaner fit. Now the Jets played him inside and out, he was actually more productive outside (which gives him more upside and makes them a really interesting 1-2 punch as two guys with position versatility), and we don't know about him staying healthy.

But it's why I think Moore was a better bet to be a good pro, and probably a better prospect. Really the big knock was size, and he should be elite out of the slot as his floor, and I think is more prepared to be a primary passing game option. Hopefully they push each other. It'd be really fun to have a solid 1-2 punch that complements each other well for a while.

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1 hour ago, derp said:

Been continuing to think about this. Wide receiver prospects are complicated.

On a really high level, I think there are two big things that wide receivers can bring to the table - big play ability and the ability to produce on volume. I think to be a good pro you need to bring at least one of those things to the table, and the large majority of the truly special wide receivers in the league can do both of those things. There are a lot of ways you can do each of those things.

Guys can create big plays because they're big and fast enough and elite on the boundary so they're threats for deep passes, because they're fast so they're threats for deep passes, maybe both, because they're elite after the catch due to some combination of strength/speed/vision/change of direction, a mix of being downfield threats and good after the catch, or I'm sure there are thins I'm missing.

Being a volume threat can come via route running/quickness and/or size/contested ability and is usually paired with excellent hands. Volume guys can play out wide but increasingly they work out of the slot area.

 

Coming into the league, I think you either need to be really, really sure that a guy is going to bring one of those things to the table or ideally you hope that he can do both. Boils down to looking at a mix of traits and production.

If we want guys to be able to produce on volume, production is a key component of that. And I think the thing that's translated best is college market share of receiving production - the guy who had 1,000 yards on an offense that passed for 2,000 is more impressive than the guy who had 1,000 yards on an offense that passed for 5,000. If a guy's college didn't think they needed to run the passing offense through him, it's not impossible but difficult to get to the point that he's good enough that a pro offense is going to feel that way. And, if he's never been asked to be the go-to guy, how do we know that he's actually capable of it? Lots of hits, producing through defensive attention, etc.

Ultimately that gets really complicated for guys who have come from schools with elite receiver rooms - like Garrett Wilson. Ohio State was pretty loaded at wide receiver, probably three guys who go top 11 in their respective drafts. Wilson beat out Jameson Williams for a role at OSU and Williams went 12th after an ACL injury sustained at the end of a monster year at Alabama where he leapfrogged a guy who was supposed to be a first round pick for their targets. All that said - we genuinely don't know if Wilson is really capable of being the guy on an offense. Ohio State never asked him to shoulder a heavy load on their offense, and they didn't really need him to.

Not being the guy in college isn't something that disqualifies him from being the guy at the pro level, Justin Jefferson ran behind Ja'Marr Chase and is absolutely elite - but the flip side is I think even Jefferson had a higher proportion of LSU's passing yards than Wilson did OSU's. Maybe DK Metcalf, but he was a completely different level of freak athlete. We know Wilson can create explosive plays and produce as part of a good offense - and maybe that's all he needs to do on an offense that now has a decent amount of skill position talent, be a threat and put up some numbers. But I don't think we really have a good sense of his #1, elite receiver potential.

Moore honestly was a better size adjusted athlete coming out of college, he's just shorter and I don't think can win off the ground or in contested situations the way Wilson can. But Moore was an absolute volume monster his last year at Ole Miss AND created big plays. He came into the pros as a pretty ready made high volume slot weapon with big play upside, and I think he could've been a monster last year if he was on a good offense and stayed healthy. Slot guys with change of direction and good route running are kind of a cheat code for easy passing game yardage, and him being a vertical slot on top of that made him pretty dangerous. Wilson has the size, but in terms of being a productive pro Moore's a cleaner fit. Now the Jets played him inside and out, he was actually more productive outside (which gives him more upside and makes them a really interesting 1-2 punch as two guys with position versatility), and we don't know about him staying healthy.

But it's why I think Moore was a better bet to be a good pro, and probably a better prospect. Really the big knock was size, and he should be elite out of the slot as his floor, and I think is more prepared to be a primary passing game option. Hopefully they push each other. It'd be really fun to have a solid 1-2 punch that complements each other well for a while.

Great breakdown man. 
 

They definitely should compliment each other very well even though neither have the standard #1 elite wr metrics. 
 

I haven’t really looked into how the % share of college receptions translates to nfl ability. There are so many variables in this area that for me just make it difficult. It’s different from player to player I guess. There are guys like Wilson and to an extent Jameson Williams (who had to transfer out) that were on a star studded cast where the volume wasn’t funneled to one particular guy because there were always so many options available. 
 

There’s also guys like David Bell who had fantastic production with 90+ catches and  1200+ yards last year on a team which didn’t have nearly as much star power on offense. But with someone like him he may not have the speed to translate to be a true breakout performer at the next level. 
 

I can definitely see Moore being the consistent go to guy like you mentioned and Wilson may be feared more deep and can have more explosive plays, but maybe not as much volume. 

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1 hour ago, BurntDice said:

Great breakdown man. 
 

They definitely should compliment each other very well even though neither have the standard #1 elite wr metrics. 
 

I haven’t really looked into how the % share of college receptions translates to nfl ability. There are so many variables in this area that for me just make it difficult. It’s different from player to player I guess. There are guys like Wilson and to an extent Jameson Williams (who had to transfer out) that were on a star studded cast where the volume wasn’t funneled to one particular guy because there were always so many options available. 
 

There’s also guys like David Bell who had fantastic production with 90+ catches and  1200+ yards last year on a team which didn’t have nearly as much star power on offense. But with someone like him he may not have the speed to translate to be a true breakout performer at the next level. 
 

I can definitely see Moore being the consistent go to guy like you mentioned and Wilson may be feared more deep and can have more explosive plays, but maybe not as much volume. 

It’s actually college market share of yards and touchdowns. If you want to read about it the terms to look for would be dominator rating, especially age adjusted dominator rating. Translates pretty well.

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