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A Few Observations about JOE DOUGLAS


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26 minutes ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

I know some prefer the 1 sentence he's great or he sucks.  For me personally, his multi-year strategy is coming into focus.  Will it be good enough?  Too early to tell but it is notable that in retrospect there are many seeds of a consistent step by step plan.  At the very least, I applaud him for that.

Your takes?

1. He's a strategist that took the job looking at roughly a 4 year rebuild and is the first modern Jets GM I can think of who acted accordingly.  As context, he was hired in June 2019

2. Meaning he's made decisions that cost the Jets some early tenure wins for the benefit of long term success.  That's part of the reason he's crushed it on trades.  He's looked long term while his peers overpaid focusing short term.  That's also part of the reason he has been methodical on free agency where spend started slow and more recently has ticked up as the foundationary head coach, scheme & draft elements started to fall into place.  A timed sequence of decisions to align the different parts of the organization 

3. A closer look at free agency thus paints a different picture than cursory hits or misses.  Prior to the 2022 draft class, he did a solid job stabilizing the offensive line while injuries slowed progress at WR & Edge.  Everyone else was essentially a 1 year stop gap..  2022 was always intended to be the biggest piece and could not have happened sooner 

    Misses:  1 year deals = Kalil (2019), Desir (2020) Perriman (2020), J Davis (2021), Rankins (2021, 2 year incentive laden w/ low cost exit after 1 year).  Joe D still gets a bad grade here because these low risk additions never materialized into the high upside he was betting on.  However, the beauty of the strategy is that it never put the Jets long term rebuild in jeopardy

    Hits:  3 year deals = McGovern (2020), Fant (2020)

    Meh:  3 year deal = GVR (2020).  By all accounts, a good acquisition when it happened.  At 3 years, $10.5M, the Jets got what they paid for & that is a fringe NFL starter

    TBD 2 year deal = Corey Davis (2021), Carl Lawson (2021), 2022 draft class 

4. His 3 biggest strengths are becoming clear:

     (i) Talent evaluation.  Yes, it's looking like he bombed on the 2020 draft class, but that just highlights the risk when key pieces are picked before the Coach & QB are set.  Frankly, I'm excited about pretty much everything else from JFM, Berrios, & Quincy W as waiver wire pickups to our 2021-2022 drafts & recent free agent acquisitions, even Mike White as a competent back-up who can win some games or un-drafted Bryce Huff turning into what third rounder Jabari Zuniga was supposed to be.  

     (ii) Data Analytics.  Using PFF as a reference point on our recent free agents, C Davis graded at 86.9 (2020); C Lawson 76.3 (2020); Reed 78.6; Whitehead 74.9, Tomlinson 75.9.  All + Uzomah/Conklin are graded as average to above average starters.  Our draft picks typically have both a high PFF grade and high RAS (athletic profile).  Scary when you think the #1 pick in the 2022 draft has high RAS but mediocre actual playing grades (the anti JD selection)

    (iii) Value.  Defined as what you get versus what you paid for.  His contract structuring and strong negotiating stand out.  Even a guy like Rankins can get cut after a subpar first year with little cap ramification.  Also why our dead cap money is NOW the league's lowest.  And why the two recent free agent visitors haven't signed ..  JD isn't budging on his core offer but might offer performance based incentives that protects weaker performance

 

All very refreshing my Jets friends!  Your thoughts?

Very fair assessment. I rate Joe overall slightly above average and the slight is the record but at this point it is understandable.

As it always is in the NFL, it comes down to the QB. If he missed with Zach, that will hurt overall and will be reflected in the record going forward. If Zach is the real deal and that does not mean is his top 5 elite in the league, then the wins will come and JD will be very successful.

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Even prior to this offseason, and even though this team has been horrible, I have supported a large majority of his moves because they have made sense towards the betterment of this team.

We all knew this was going to be the telltale year and it seems to be going very well on paper.  I believe the 3 biggest wildcards, Zach, Saleh and injuries, will determine this season and are all out of JD’s hands.

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I think JD is right on target and when you consider the first and second year were drafting for 2 different coaches with 2 different philosophies and 2 completely different schemes on both offense and defense you really can't fault JD for year one but as @slats said maybe even year one may work out to be good if Mims and Becton prove their worth.

Obviously this all hinges on Zach, we need a big impact from him this year. I think the biggest Impact will be from the combo of Breece Hall and Michael Carter. If those two guys light it up they will transform the entire offense, change the way defenses approach us, and take all the pressure off Zach. IMHO that's the Key.

The Head Coach is another part of the scheme that has to work and while I think he did a good job from the game management perspective the jury is still out on him just as much as it is on Zach.

JD has a lot of people he is relying on just like every GM but when it comes to building a roster I think he knocked it out of the park in both depth and talent.

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30 minutes ago, Dcat said:

4. I'd say his talent evaluation is average to slightly above,  with a whole lot TBD mixed in.   Was Becton evaluated well?  Were his body's inevitable struggles to stay healthy factored in enough?  I'd say no.    Was Zach Wilson evaluated well?   We have yet to learn.  For FA, he's done well and could have been much better but for the injuries.. I am particularly happy about Tomlinson, Uzomah and Conk. I'd say they were well above average choices from this years FA market .

I keep wondering how much influence Gase and the prior coaching staff had on the 2020 draft.  Could just be a rookie GM feeling his way, finding out which scouts he can trust.  Could also be drafting traits valued more highly in the prior regime not fitting as well under Saleh and LaFleur...

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13 minutes ago, munchmemory said:

JitteryFilthyAmericanindianhorse-size_re

Nah, that was a pretty objective original post.  
 

What GM have we had who’s had a multi year plan?  Who’s gotten rid of players not a day too soon?  Been in alignment with the coach?  Gotten anything of value from the waiver wire?  Traded overrated assets to collect high draft picks?  Focused on offense over defense?    Had any competitive strengths?  Drinks a normal amount of caffeine?

Can’t tell if you are just joking but there are some who are understandably upset about his win / loss record to date.  As one examines the moves he’s made, it’s become abundantly clear it was never about early wins.  

Yes, he did strike out on low risk 1 year contracts on players with perceived upside which could have led to some more wins these past 2 years but that was never supposed to be a big part of the puzzle.

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JD has had strong process:

Strategy (focus on positional value when investing resources, building the trenches, skill players)

Financial Discipline (contract structuring/handling dead money)

Operational Diligence  (Leveraging all avenues to improve team - trades, UDFA, waiver wire claims, free agency, etc)

Not everything works out but it's really hard to argue the process... 

There are very few moves that I can look at and say that made no sense... even when I look at the misses in hindsight.  The nice thing is that the misses didn't adversely impact the future of the team, unlike the moves of previous GMs.

 

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To sum it up.. JD is a professional GM that appears to be strong across all of the dimensions of the job.  He's not "just a scout", or "just a cap manager", or "just a personnel guy." 

Has he hit on everything - no.  But no GM does.  The theory, much like analytics, is if you follow good process, you give yourself better odds over time.  I think he is doing that.

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Some good, some bad.

Quincy Williams was a good pick up, his lazy ass brother stinks.

I hope he pulls a J Adams maneuver and fleeces another team

into trading for the bum or lets him go for a comp.

Spending two first on Becton & AVT not good.

Bypassing an All Pro tackle, Wirth and taking soft, fat, underachiever

who doesn't have left tackle feet. As for AVT, traded him to the Vikes

who drafted Darrisaw a higher graded player PFF at a more important

position LT.  Christian Darrisaw is the Dancing bear that Becton should

have been. AVT fine guard, but passing on an Pro Bowl to All Pro

Tackle and adding two threes is a miss.  This last draft is a hit particularly

Breece Hall, who I believe will be Rookie of the Year and even lead the

league in rushing if Ace Carter gets banged up

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3 hours ago, OtherwiseHappyinLife said:

All very refreshing my Jets friends!  Your thoughts?

Great points. A few random thoughts:

- We've seen fast turnarounds. But it seems like you have to give the right person a few years to get the job done. And in some ways the first year or two don't count because Douglas was cleaning up a mess, dealing with a horrible coach, and trying to get to ground zero. He needs some time to build. However, I also get the angst that this team needs to start winning at some point. To your point, he needs time to align and time to be methodical.

- The 2020 draft can in someway be forgiven because of the moves made since. 

- His latest moves might proven most significantly helpful. It's going to take time to see it. 

- The Fant deal might end up being genius in hindsight. If Corey Davis and Carl Lawson perform, those moves will help the trajectory of this team (coupled with the other moves).

- His valuation of players, and his willingness to pay or not overpay, is a real strength of his that is becoming obvious and admirable.

- As you point out, some of the waiver pick ups are really impressive.

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3 hours ago, Badom said:

He's great ! 

 

 

Sorry. I fully agree with you. What I like so much about JD is the fact that he has a plan and keep on following it. Will it work ? Still an open question but I don't believe in any other way to reach success. 

It's as simple as this, this team will get better and better and even much better as this continues so long as many of these players both starter and backups are on the field and not in the medical rooms. It's one thing some injuries here and there, but this team the last few years would have overloaded MASH units where they could not have been able to function.

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The thing I see with JD is that his draft philosophy changed from 2020 to now. And I do not think it was all on Gase's influence.

In 2020 he sort of followed the PFF playbook: trading down a lot and picking high ceiling guys. Riskier picks with better potential but a much higher chance to bust. Becton over Wirfs. 

But in the last 2 drafts he has clearly favored getting the players that they really want and also getting prospects with higher floors and less bust potential and players at need positions. At 4 for example CB is not as premium a position as EDGE. Although Sauce's ceiling is very very high, Thibs was probably even higher at an arguably more important position for this defense. Thibs in 3 years could be a bust or he could be a how was he not picked before 5 sort of guy. But Gardner in 3 years will likely be looked at as either a solid corner to top corner in the league. 2020 JD takes KT, 2022 JD takes Wirfs

 

 

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6 hours ago, jNYC1 said:

JD has had strong process:

Strategy (focus on positional value when investing resources, building the trenches, skill players)

Financial Discipline (contract structuring/handling dead money)

Operational Diligence  (Leveraging all avenues to improve team - trades, UDFA, waiver wire claims, free agency, etc)

Not everything works out but it's really hard to argue the process... 

There are very few moves that I can look at and say that made no sense... even when I look at the misses in hindsight.  The nice thing is that the misses didn't adversely impact the future of the team, unlike the moves of previous GMs.

 

If Zack misses, the whole "strong process" meme is going to take a hit, and the team is going to suffer....

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4 hours ago, peekskill68 said:

If Zack misses, the whole "strong process" meme is going to take a hit, and the team is going to suffer....

Plenty of teams have recovered from a QB bust before.  

And you can have a strong process and still miss on QBs.  It’s the most difficult position to evaluate in all of pro sports.  GMs shouldn’t be harpooned on that alone. 

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6 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Plenty of teams have recovered from a QB bust before.  

And you can have a strong process and still miss on QBs.  It’s the most difficult position to evaluate in all of pro sports.  GMs shouldn’t be harpooned on that alone. 

If we are 4-13 again, Zach craps the bed and JD is entering year 5 of a 6 year deal, I look forward to all this kumbaya about "process"...

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While I like what he has done getting talent on this team, whether it is through the draft or free agency that is only one aspect of his job.

He did hire Robert Saleh and brought on Mike Shanahan type of offense for this team. Are these the right coaches to develop young talent, to get the most out of them. This is his decision to bring this staff in, and if they fail it falls directly on his shoulder. The jury is still out on this one.

The final thing that JD has done is acquiring picks for the draft to infuse talent on the roster by trading away malcontent Jamal Adams and the disappointing Sam Darnold for picks. He has done good job working the draft to get players that fit their style of their system, and is willing to trade late round picks to get difference makers. He understands the importance of premium positions and has used 5 of his 6 1st rounders on them, the sole player being AVT but he does play on the OL. It's not like he's a safety or something. He has done an exceptional job with this. 

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15 hours ago, Bungaman said:

My cat was pleased with the draft. Based on her prediction (post of March 15th - she keeps track):

image.png.86ba18610efeafeb0d400ee2077eb42e.png

So she predicted Sauce, Edge and WR in the first, and was a little early on the TE. 

Her lardship: 2129763835_Fatcat.thumb.jpg.4dd15593e860c86d5fd19154893d1527.jpg

That cat has ninety nine problems but eating mice aint one. 

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