Pretty fair breakdown of Zach Wilson and second year QBs *WARNING PODCAST LINK*

[Mogglez]

31 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Meh, I dont distinctly remember Mogglez take but the conventional wisdom got sh*t all over last year leading up to the draft when Wilson suddenly became really truly, QB1 because something something and Chris Simms.  Very convenient to pretend like that wasnt the narrative and that Jets fans didnt sh*t themselves trying so hard to validate their draft opinion because of a few plays during the preseason.

Thanks JiF.  I never hide from my takes so here were my NFL comps and rankings of Lawrence and Wilson, written and archived on my blog, as of April 26th, 2021:

A lot of people were guilty of riding the Chris Simms hype machine, but I firmly believed that Trevor was QB1.  I still do.  That doesn’t mean I don’t have love for the rest of the class, because I loved them all, but I still think he puts it together and becomes what most thought he would be.

[GreenFish]

49 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

 

These two posts being back to back are comedy gold. 

Didnt see that post. Guess i almost took the bait. ?

[HawkeyeJet]

I listen to Tice and Mays often.  I enjoy their show.  I’m writing this specific post as listening.  I just finished the Lawrence segment and will be moving onto Wilson in a minute.

I’ll say this about Lawrence, for the most part they say he stunk, but everything was his surroundings fault and his biggest negative is he tried too much to elevate his crappy team.  To be fair, they did say ALL of the QBs discussed outside of Jones played for very bad teams.

That may be right, that may wrong, but I’ll be surprised if others get that treatment where the biggest blame is their surroundings.  There is a weird protection of Lawrence for whatever reason.  I could be wrong though.  We shall see as I listen to the rest.

[T0mShane]

33 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

"I think that's just going to come with reps. ... he has to improve it and hone it"

"everything gets so much better year 2 ... it takes a while with this offensive system"

"Even if you lose a couple of guys there's still going to be useful guys all over the place"

"I think no matter what he's going to take a step forward"

Right, but these things are all in the vein of what all these analysts are saying about Zach—“Hey, maybe it’ll be better next year.” Relative to what they say about Fields, Mac Jones, and Lawrence—where they highlight their physical traits and/or poise—everything with Zach is “hey, maybe Becton will come back.” 

[nycdan]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

Right, but these things are all in the vein of what all these analysts are saying about Zach—“Hey, maybe it’ll be better next year.” Relative to what they say about Fields, Mac Jones, and Lawrence—where they highlight their physical traits and/or poise—everything with Zach is “hey, maybe Becton will come back.” 

Excuse me?  

yeah, I know you added 'poise' for Mac Jones, but really, most of the praise of him is tied to the system and coaching which was very well suited to help him achieve the success he did.  

Physical traits is all you can talk about with Fields.  Chicago has done him so dirty, it makes what the Jets did to Sam look glowing by comparison.

As for Lawrence, it's also all about potential.  Given the level of competition and success he achieved in college, his rookie season has to be viewed as disappointing, no matter what situation he was dropped into.  So that conversation is still all about potential to improve based on Peterson's system, a new overpaid WR, and if the OL will hold up.  

Honestly, Between Lance, Fields, Lawrence and Wilson, I have no idea who will make the biggest jump this year.  But I do think it's unarguable that Wilson has been given the biggest improvement in talent compared to last year so all else being equal, he should be expected to make the biggest leap.  It also helps that he's starting from the lowest baseline

 

[The Crusher]

4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Right, but these things are all in the vein of what all these analysts are saying about Zach—“Hey, maybe it’ll be better next year.” Relative to what they say about Fields, Mac Jones, and Lawrence—where they highlight their physical traits and/or poise—everything with Zach is “hey, maybe Becton will come back.” 

Mac Jones poise last year was truly impressive, not sure it offsets him being unable to throw a ball when it’s windy out, but in a vacuum it was truly special. Fields like all the Uber athletic QBs before him will have to create that balance in order to be anything more than really good in fantasy. Lawrence? Has a lot of insulation from critics because everyone else because of all the  grinding on the generational talent pole. His college production is reason to believe he will eventually be a very good QB?
 

Zach? Never should have started in the first place, yet, gotta be somewhat impressed he didn’t die last year. His line learned on the go for the beginning of the year and it showed. The line was mince meat for that last game. That’s what people likely remember so the Becton comment makes sense. His arm talent gets pushed to the side because he stunk so badly early and when he came back from injury the coaching staffing shelved it. Hopefully he is able to use it to get some chunk plays this year while playing some ball protection QB like he did to end last season. The good news is the weapinz excuse is officially  dead. If he still stinks it up there are supposedly 100 QBs that will go in round 1 next year. Make it happen Tanny! 

[JohnnyLV]

I have to say I am incredibly tired of all "takes" on Zach good or bad. People see what they want, and cherry pick the stats they want and then do the same with the others. The sad thing is that a handful of people that are Jets fans want to continuously push the Zach sucks narrative and it gets old fast. 

[IndianaJet]

6 hours ago, T0mShane said:

The Athletic Football Show podcast with Robert Mays and Nate Tice did a pretty comprehensive breakdown of the 2021 rookies, which I found pretty interesting, and you might, too! 
 

Highlights:

1. They loved Zach’s arm talent and compact, quick delivery (which they compared to Aaron Rodgers).

2. They were excited about his play against the Bucs zone defense.

3. Zach’s numbers against man to man and the blitz were, by far, the worst in the league, which they attribute to lack of familiarity with receivers and also the fact that his line at BYU was comically good.

3. Tice said that Zach is, and always was, a project who probably wasn’t ready to play. Had no plan on any particular play and was only good on plays where he had his first read.

4. They loved LaFleur’s scheme and raved about the talent he has around him this upcoming year.

Starts around the 20 minute mark.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-athletic-football-show-a-show-about-the-nfl/id1528622068?i=1000562761323

 

See fellas...this is how it's supposed to be done.  Notice how Tom first outlines the points made in the podcast/video in case someone doesn't have the time to listen/watch to the whole thing AND, maybe even more importantly....directs you to the specific time in which the relevant discussion occurs.

[LongTimeJetFan]

Is he a window thrower? 

[Doggin94it]

56 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Right, but these things are all in the vein of what all these analysts are saying about Zach—“Hey, maybe it’ll be better next year.” Relative to what they say about Fields, Mac Jones, and Lawrence—where they highlight their physical traits and/or poise—everything with Zach is “hey, maybe Becton will come back.” 

They spent a good couple of minutes gushing about how insanely elite his arm talent is - they said he had the best arm in the class.

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, slimjasi said:

Not sure how most of this  is relevant to my point - which is that the conventional wisdom regarding college QB prospects is largely unreliable.

further, I doubt very many jets fans would have actually drafted Wilson over Lawrence, despite some claims to the contrary. Lawrence was always the golden boy and he had as disappointing a rookie season as anybody. 
 

Also, “worst starting QB I’ve ever seen type trajectory” is pretty silly after a handful of games (5 complete games pre-injury?), even for a Wilson skeptic. 

It's quite relevant, considering your favorite team punted on conventional wisdom. 

Further, you clearly have very foggy memory of that draft class.

And there is nothing silly about it.  The kid was one hoping 5 yard swing passes.  The phrase "not belonging" never applied so well. 

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, slimjasi said:

LMAO you are such a Fields fanboy 

 

(hint - we have no clue what Fields is, either)

 

funny stuff 

Disagree.  He at least verified what was sold.  Wilson, gave you nothing you were sold. 

[Hal N of Provo]

55 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Right, but these things are all in the vein of what all these analysts are saying about Zach—“Hey, maybe it’ll be better next year.” Relative to what they say about Fields, Mac Jones, and Lawrence—where they highlight their physical traits and/or poise—everything with Zach is “hey, maybe Becton will come back.” 

We listened to this through two different lenses lol.   I don’t think we disagree about Zach, until you get into the interpretation of what it means going forward lol.   
 

At the same time we both say the same thing “A+B+C+D which means” and then I finish with “Zach could be amazing” and you finish with “see, it’s like I said, he’s probably a huge bust.”   Lol.

But I thought they were talking about Zach’s high end potential.  For real it seemed to acknowledge last year was was rough, but things can go lots better because he’s got an arm cannon, he’s mobile, and when he knows what he’s looking at he does good things. 

I’m glad with all the off-season moves we will get a fair look at him this year.  

[Hal N of Provo]

8 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

It's quite relevant, considering your favorite team punted on conventional wisdom. 

Further, you clearly have very foggy memory of that draft class.

And there is nothing silly about it.  The kid was one hoping 5 yard swing passes.  The phrase "not belonging" never applied so well. 

They were obviously talking a little more as fans, but the overall review of Fields seems the same to me, but I’ve gotta go and I’m not sure I’ll come back to it later.  
 

Fields showed flashes and concerns too.  Enough that I bet most people still prefer the QB they started with if they watched enough of both.  And that’s fair.  

[playtowinthegame]

I expect Zach Wilson to break Ryan Fitzpatrick's single season Jets record in touchdowns (31) and eventually Joe Namath's single season Jets record in yards (4007).

Last season 10 quarterbacks passed for over 4,000 yards and 9 quarterbacks passed for over 30 touchdowns.

[JustInFudge]

16 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

They were obviously talking a little more as fans, but the overall review of Fields seems the same to me, but I’ve gotta go and I’m not sure I’ll come back to it later.  
 

Fields showed flashes and concerns too.  Enough that I bet most people still prefer the QB they started with if they watched enough of both.  And that’s fair.  

I didnt say Fields was good or lacked concern, in fact, I gave no predictions for any outcomes for anyone.  I said at least somewhat Fields verified what you knew about him ie; all world athlete, big play maker, not afraid of the big stage, incredible down field accuracy, struggles with pressure, probably not ready so you're still confident that he overcomes the already perceived issues.  Whereas, we dont know what Zach is based on what we were sold; ready day 1, cerebral, mechanically sound, accurate, huge down field arm, off script magic guru, arm angles, etc.  He was literally, none of those things, so it's really hard to know how or what Zach is going to look like next season.  That's all. 

 

[Hex]

3 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Of the guys they covered, Zach Wilson was clearly the guy whom they had the least hope for.

I assume they never talked about Justin Fields then? Because he looks like he’s screwed in Chicago. At least Zach has support

[UntouchableCrew]

4 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

"It's a fun offense to watch ... well designed"

When was the last time you heard that said about the Jets?

I've been saying this since the middle of last season. LaFleuer is the best OC we've had in 20 years.

[UntouchableCrew]

43 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Disagree.  He at least verified what was sold.  Wilson, gave you nothing you were sold. 

Other than his athleticism what did Fields really verify? He too was awful last year.

[slimjasi]

50 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Disagree.  He at least verified what was sold.  Wilson, gave you nothing you were sold. 

Mmmk

 

[bitonti]

1 hour ago, johnnysd said:

I have to say I am incredibly tired of all "takes" on Zach good or bad. People see what they want, and cherry pick the stats they want and then do the same with the others. The sad thing is that a handful of people that are Jets fans want to continuously push the Zach sucks narrative and it gets old fast. 

It's not a narrative. We aren't telling stories. By any measure he was a disappointment in year 1

 

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

They spent a good couple of minutes gushing about how insanely elite his arm talent is - they said he had the best arm in the class.

They did say that, but in a sort of “she has a nice personality” sort of affect. Did you come away from it thinking they were as high on Zach as they were on Lawrence, Fields, or Jones?

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Other than his athleticism what did Fields really verify? He too was awful last year.

Ummm, I said it in the post.  lol

His deep ball accuracy and willingness to push the ball down the field.  And his big stage performance ability.  He had his 2 best games, on the road, on SNF and MNF. 

Justin Fields ranks as the fifth-best deep passer within the dataset, and the best among 2021 rookies. He threw deep the fourth most often (15.9%), with the 19th ranked adjusted completion percentage (44.2%). Moreover, Fields recorded the best big-time throw rate (34.8%) of any passer in the dataset. However, his ranking of 23rd for turnover-worthy play rate (8.7%) is not as sharp.  

[JohnnyLV]

52 minutes ago, bitonti said:

It's not a narrative. We aren't telling stories. By any measure he was a disappointment in year 1

 

But that statement is just not true. He was a rookie QB on a team ravaged by injuries and showed consistent improvement despite an ever dwindling roster.

[Dunnie]

Meh, I dont distinctly remember Mogglez take but the conventional wisdom got sh*t all over last year leading up to the draft when Wilson suddenly became really truly, QB1 because something something and Chris Simms.  Very convenient to pretend like that wasnt the narrative and that Jets fans didnt sh*t themselves trying so hard to validate their draft opinion because of a few plays during the preseason.
Reality was, Wilson was nowhere near ready and the scary part is, we dont really know that anything has changed.  He went from worst starting QB I've ever seen type trajectory, to a barely passable starter.  So while I guess that's encouraging, it also tells you absolutely nothing about what to expect from Wilson this year.
 
 

The guy I saw went from raw unbridled and undisciplined talent to guy that nearly smoked Tampa Bay with just Braxton Berrios.

[Matt39]

9 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

The guy I saw went from raw unbridled and undisciplined talent to guy that nearly smoked Tampa Bay with just Braxton Berrios.

Wilson stunk last season. Fields was worse. Both have a lot to prove.

[MykePM]

1 hour ago, JiFapono said:

Whereas, we dont know what Zach is based on what we were sold; ready day 1, cerebral, mechanically sound, accurate, huge down field arm, off script magic guru, arm angles, etc.  He was literally, none of those things, so it's really hard to know how or what Zach is going to look like next season.  That's all. 

 

That's about as "glass half empty" a perspective as you can get.  About as cynical a view as I can ride with is that you only saw glimpses of those characteristics and no consistency.  And lack of consistency is not unexpected with a raw rookie.

As one example, you can't tell me that the bomb to Corey Davis in the Titans game didn't show both a "huge down field arm" and "off script magic", in a big spot and against a quality opponent, in the 4th game of his NFL career.

[Matt39]

6 hours ago, T0mShane said:

The Athletic Football Show podcast with Robert Mays and Nate Tice did a pretty comprehensive breakdown of the 2021 rookies, which I found pretty interesting, and you might, too! 
 

Highlights:

1. They loved Zach’s arm talent and compact, quick delivery (which they compared to Aaron Rodgers).

2. They were excited about his play against the Bucs zone defense.

3. Zach’s numbers against man to man and the blitz were, by far, the worst in the league, which they attribute to lack of familiarity with receivers and also the fact that his line at BYU was comically good.

3. Tice said that Zach is, and always was, a project who probably wasn’t ready to play. Had no plan on any particular play and was only good on plays where he had his first read.

4. They loved LaFleur’s scheme and raved about the talent he has around him this upcoming year.

Starts around the 20 minute mark.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-athletic-football-show-a-show-about-the-nfl/id1528622068?i=1000562761323

 

Bucs played zone against the Jets? earth to Todd lol

[David Harris]

Excellent listen- thank you.

[HawkeyeJet]

Here is my take on the Wilson segment.

1 . Physical talent is undoubtedly there.

2.  Processing undoubtedly is not, but may have shown progress.

3.  Wilson relied far too much on instinct and didn’t have a plan of attack.  Especially when blitzed.

I think the overarching thing with Wilson is this(in my opinion):

1.  If last June you thought Wilson was the type of QB who was capable of coming in and being an advanced QB as a Rookie(see Mac Jones) this podcast and situation with Wilson should make you very nervous we selected another bust.

2.  If last June you thought he likely shouldn’t play last year, or at least not early, this podcast should give you reason to be optimistic. 

The things they say Wilson struggles with the most are largely things he simply never dealt with before.  Maybe he never will be able to deal with those thing.  It’s possible those things never develop but it does give me a glimmer of hope that his strengths from college are still translating and hopefully he can learn the rest the more he sees it.

[Matt39]

14 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Here is my take on the Wilson segment.

1 . Physical talent is undoubtedly there.

2.  Processing undoubtedly is not, but may have shown progress.

3.  Wilson relied far too much on instinct and didn’t have a plan of attack.  Especially when blitzed.

I think the overarching thing with Wilson is this(in my opinion):

1.  If last June you thought Wilson was the type of QB who was capable of coming in and being an advanced QB as a Rookie(see Mac Jones) this podcast and situation with Wilson should make you very nervous we selected another bust.

2.  If last June you thought he likely shouldn’t play last year, or at least not early, this podcast should give you reason the be optimistic. 

The things they say Wilson struggles with the most are largely things he simply never dealt with before.  Maybe he never will be able to deal with those thing.  That’s possible he doesn’t, but it does give me a glimmer of hope that his strengths from college are still translating and hopefully he can learn the rest the more he sees it.

I think this is extremely accurate.

[UntouchableCrew]

49 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Ummm, I said it in the post.  lol

Not the one I quoted...

49 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

His deep ball accuracy and willingness to push the ball down the field.  And his big stage performance ability.  He had his 2 best games, on the road, on SNF and MNF. 

Justin Fields ranks as the fifth-best deep passer within the dataset, and the best among 2021 rookies. He threw deep the fourth most often (15.9%), with the 19th ranked adjusted completion percentage (44.2%). Moreover, Fields recorded the best big-time throw rate (34.8%) of any passer in the dataset. However, his ranking of 23rd for turnover-worthy play rate (8.7%) is not as sharp.  

I mean, this just seems like subjective cherry picking. Zach Wilson had his two best games against Tom Brady and the defending champion Bucs and the number 1 seed Titans and I'm sure we could dig up some obscure "stats" that suggest he was better than he was. Wilson certainly displayed his arm talent so I guess he proved something there?

Fields was 2-8 passing for 155 yards per game and had 7 TDs to 10 INTs. He's literally the only qualifying QB in the NFL with a worse QBR than Zach Wilson.

This isn't even a pro Zach or anti Fields thing (I wanted Fields at 2) it's just intellectual honesty.

By any measure Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Justin Fields all sucked as rookies. They were keeping Sam Darnold company in the absolute basement of all rankings. Trying to pretend Fields "proved" anything as a rookie that WIlson didn't is kind of a preposterous argument. He was absolutely terrible.

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, Dunnie said:

The guy I saw went from raw unbridled and undisciplined talent to guy that nearly smoked Tampa Bay with just Braxton Berrios.

He threw for 230 yards and 1 TD at 57% comp.  Smoked?  lmfao  We have different definitions.

 

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Not the one I quoted...

I mean, this just seems like subjective cherry picking. Zach Wilson had his two best games against Tom Brady and the defending champion Bucs and the number 1 seed Titans and I'm sure we could dig up some obscure "stats" that suggest he was better than he was. Wilson certainly displayed his arm talent so I guess he proved something there?

Fields was 2-8 passing for 155 yards per game and had 7 TDs to 10 INTs. He's literally the only qualifying QB in the NFL with a worse QBR than Zach Wilson.

This isn't even a pro Zach or anti Fields thing (I wanted Fields at 2) it's just intellectual honesty.

By any measure Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Justin Fields all sucked as rookies. They were keeping Sam Darnold company in the absolute basement of all rankings. Trying to pretend Fields "proved" anything as a rookie that WIlson didn't is kind of a preposterous argument. He was absolutely terrible.

I literally have no idea what you're doing here, so I dont how to respond.  You've taken a very simple comment and, well, I dont know what you're doing but I can only assume you're not grasping my very very simple opinion which is pretty spot on but whatever, I'm not upset if you disagree.

Let me try it this way:

Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson were billed as QB 1a and 1b.  I wont repeat the talking points because we know them but many talking heads and posters on this board believe Zach Wilson to be QB1.  A few posters said he was the best prospect they've ever seen.  Considering those facts and the fact everyone called, Trevor Lawrence "generational", it's safe to assume that Zach Wilson should be right there with him, right? Right.  So what the Jets and Jags were told they were getting, was far far far from what they drafted.  

Justin Fields was billed as a freak athlete, big play downfield passer, big game/stage performer who would struggle with pressure and probably needed a year to learn.  The plan was to do just that and then he was forced into action and the Bears, pretty much got exactly what was billed.

Hard to argue that, right?  Cool.  So my point is, you know more about what you have going into next year with Fields, good or bad, than you do both TL and Wilson because they were so drastically different then what you expected. 

 

 

 

 

[JustInFudge]

2 hours ago, MykePM said:

That's about as "glass half empty" a perspective as you can get.  About as cynical a view as I can ride with is that you only saw glimpses of those characteristics and no consistency.  And lack of consistency is not unexpected with a raw rookie.

As one example, you can't tell me that the bomb to Corey Davis in the Titans game didn't show both a "huge down field arm" and "off script magic", in a big spot and against a quality opponent, in the 4th game of his NFL career.

Right on, MykePM.  I dont think honestly is cynical but different strokes for different folks.  

Let me ask you this:

What type of player is Zach Wilson?  What do you expect from him next season?  What do you think his strength is as a player?  And what did you notice from his draft analysis that carried over into the NFL season that you're excited about for his development?