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Pretty fair breakdown of Zach Wilson and second year QBs *WARNING PODCAST LINK*


T0mShane
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4 hours ago, JiFapono said:

It's quite relevant, considering your favorite team punted on conventional wisdom. 

Further, you clearly have very foggy memory of that draft class.

And there is nothing silly about it.  The kid was one hoping 5 yard swing passes.  The phrase "not belonging" never applied so well. 

I recently rewatched most of the condensed games on Gamepass.

To be fair, the swing pass skipping didn't last very long.  He didn't have it the first few weeks to start the season and didn't have it the last few weeks.  It was a short window of a few games where this happened.

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12 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Hard to argue that, right?  Cool.  So my point is, you know more about what you have going into next year with Fields, good or bad, than you do both TL and Wilson because they were so drastically different then what you expected. 

I don't know what your larger point here is because I'm not reading the thread but this part is literally the definition of confirmation bias.

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16 minutes ago, Waka Flocka Flacco said:

I don't know what your larger point here is because I'm not reading the thread but this part is literally the definition of confirmation bias.

Ummm, pretty sure you're looking for confirmation when you draft a player but yeah, sure.

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32 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Hard to argue that, right?  Cool.  So my point is, you know more about what you have going into next year with Fields, good or bad, than you do both TL and Wilson because they were so drastically different then what you expected.

 

I have no idea what you’re talking about here. 

Outside of Chris Simms and a handful of Jets homers nobody on the planet thought anyone but Lawrence was QB1 and plenty of people myself included viewed Fields as a better option than Wilson — it wasn’t really until after the season that Wilson really started shooting up mocks as it became clear he was seen as the number two prospect. Fields has literally been the 1B to Lawrence’s 1A since they were in high school.

So no, I don’t agree at all that Wilson was seen as a slam dunk generational prospect in the vein of Lawrence. I really don’t think that was a common narrative anywhere.

I’m just taking exception to your assertion that Fields showed himself to be as advertised while Wilson did not — I have zero idea what I have in Fields if I’m the Bears. Like, he’s a big physical athlete with a strong arm, so yeah, I know I have that… But I have zero idea if he can play QB at this level. He couldn’t in 2021.

Lawrence, Fields and Wilson all looked like huge busts as rookies and the 2021 QB class looks like a massive whiff so far. Lance can’t get on the field and noodle armed Mac was easily the best of the bunch with future journeyman Mills in 2nd. No other assessment of the situation is in touch with reality, IMO.

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6 hours ago, JiFapono said:

ewwww, now I might listen.  lol

Unlike Zach, I think Fields at least verified, for the most part, what you knew about him going in.  Big play QB who has incredible downfield accuracy but might struggle with pressure because of Ohio St. offense and probably need a year to learn but you'll take with Fields because he is so smart and such a freak and you've seen him deliver big stage clutch performances that you expect that piece to be fixed somewhat easily but I just dont know if the Bears did enough to help him.  

Unfortunately, we have no clue what Zach is and every Jets fans is just praying the predaft hype comes true but fortunately, JD has loaded up this offense and I think the Jets will be a top 5-10 running team this year so hopefully, the emphasis on Wilson making the year 2 jump isnt as necessary to overall team success as maybe it is for Fields and the Bears and even Lawrence and the Jags for that matter. 

 

 

I'm trying to give Douglas a pass for this decision, but I feel like a wife who is trying to be ok with catching her husband cheating "just one time". 

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7 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Fiends was actually the guy I wanted to take at 2, but all things considered, I’d rather be Wilson right now than Fields 

That's probably true, but that has more to do with the surrounding team than anything else. 

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7 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Not sure how most of this  is relevant to my point - which is that the conventional wisdom regarding college QB prospects is largely unreliable.

further, I doubt very many jets fans would have actually drafted Wilson over Lawrence, despite some claims to the contrary. Lawrence was always the golden boy and he had as disappointing a rookie season as anybody. 
 

Also, “worst starting QB I’ve ever seen type trajectory” is pretty silly after a handful of games (5 complete games pre-injury?), even for a Wilson skeptic. 

Zach was terrible… I don’t think that is an overstatement… and even with a “good” end of the year he was still only barely above Josh Rosen level.   His current trajectory is most closely aligned with colossal bust - even after looking competent with a weak cast at the end of the season.

Zach was arguably the worse QB in the league last year, even after taking into account the situation and his positive tape in the last few games.

What he actually did last year puts him in terrible company when you look at the history of the league.  (And the rules and schemes are way more QB friendly now, perhaps making it more concerning when looking back)

Most fans are hopeful he will be better, myself included.  Stating the facts doesn’t make someone a Zach hater… the facts however do make skepticism understandable.

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27 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Right on, MykePM.  I dont think honestly is cynical but different strokes for different folks.  

Let me ask you this:

What type of player is Zach Wilson?  What do you expect from him next season?  What do you think his strength is as a player?  And what did you notice from his draft analysis that carried over into the NFL season that you're excited about for his development? 

 

I’m not pretending to know what type of player Zach is or how he’s going to perform this year.  After getting burned by Darnold, I’ve given up on hopeful projections based on flashes of potential.  Maybe we can find common ground there.

I think where I (and possibly others) have been challenging you is with your hyperbolic statements like “worst QB ever trajectory” and that Zach has shown us literally nothing of the traits he was supposed to have.  It’s tough to debate those points, because they are opinion-based and you seem pretty entrenched with them.  However, I feel pretty confident in saying that I’ve seen Zach display a strong downfield arm on some plays, off-script playmaking ability at times, and also accuracy (he made one throw at the end of one of the Pats games that even impressed Belichick).  If you want to deny that those things happened, there’s not much left to discuss, because your view of reality is too different from mine.  If you’re invalidating the moments when he showed those traits, because he didn’t show them consistently enough, I’ve already conceded that.

I think Zach can be a great QB if he can learn when to try to make big plays (which he’s shown he has the physical talent to do successfully) vs. playing hero ball, and balance staying on-script and taking what’s given to him with going off-script and creating when the designed play breaks down.  I don’t know if he can make that transition (Darnold couldn’t), so if that’s your point - I guess we can just agree about the uncertainty, wait to see what happens and hope for the best.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MykePM said:

I’m not pretending to know what type of player Zach is or how he’s going to perform this year.  After getting burned by Darnold, I’ve given up on hopeful projections based on flashes of potential.  Maybe we can find common ground there.

I think where I (and possibly others) have been challenging you is with your hyperbolic statements like “worst QB ever trajectory” and that Zach has shown us literally nothing of the traits he was supposed to have.  It’s tough to debate those points, because they are opinion-based and you seem pretty entrenched with them.  However, I feel pretty confident in saying that I’ve seen Zach display a strong downfield arm on some plays, off-script playmaking ability at times, and also accuracy (he made one throw at the end of one of the Pats games that even impressed Belichick).  If you want to deny that those things happened, there’s not much left to discuss, because your view of reality is too different from mine.  If you’re invalidating the moments when he showed those traits, because he didn’t show them consistently enough, I’ve already conceded that.

I think Zach can be a great QB if he can learn when to try to make big plays (which he’s shown he has the physical talent to do successfully) vs. playing hero ball, and balance staying on-script and taking what’s given to him with going off-script and creating when the designed play breaks down.  I don’t know if he can make that transition (Darnold couldn’t), so if that’s your point - I guess we can just agree about the uncertainty, wait to see what happens and hope for the best.

 

 

“Worst qb ever trajectory” is only mildly hyperbolic.  Definitely accurate if modified slightly to say Zach’s trajectory is consistent with being one of the worse QBs in the last 10 years.

(And yes, Josh Allen is the outlier of all outliers)

 

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1 hour ago, JiFapono said:

Right on, MykePM.  I dont think honestly is cynical but different strokes for different folks.  

Let me ask you this:

What type of player is Zach Wilson?  What do you expect from him next season?  What do you think his strength is as a player?  And what did you notice from his draft analysis that carried over into the NFL season that you're excited about for his development? 

 

Zach Wilson is a “ street ball magic” type of player. 
 

I expect him to look more comfortable and try to maintain some of the ball control stuff they neutered him to get a handle on. Then BOOM bitch! Gonna just street ball certain plays and launch some deep stuff. Not sure our guy, the other guy or the guy standing on the sidelines will catch it but I expect to be hot son! 
 

His strength as a player is he’s way tougher than he looks and so far has no quit in him,  even though he had a couple teary times. Real mean cry! He’s also got  that street ball off platform magic, say he don’t, I freaking dare you! 
 

He certainly has the arm talent the was touted to have but also way slower processing the game as advertised. So they had to reel him in some. Kid can certainly make all the throws when he’s not running straight backwards. I’m excited to see him combine the ball control stuff they taught him that he played with down the stretch with his STREETBALL MAGIC! Jab, jab, jab POWERSHOT. TD!!!!!! Do you think you could even take his  power shot? Haha, no. 
 

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25 minutes ago, jNYC1 said:

Zach was arguably the worse QB in the league last year, even after taking into account the situation and his positive tape in the last few games.

Possible, but debatable and not necessarily indicative of a QB's future trajectory. Most rookie QBs struggle and many struggle mightily. Wilson showed flashes of brilliance. If he can become more consistent, he can be a good player. If he can't, he won't. Obsessing over his rookie statistics really isn't particularly helpful. 

 

Also, with respect to the situation, the Jets were playing with 4th string WRs and backup OLs by the end of the season. Wilson played several games without Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Jameson Crowder. Braxton Berrios was his best WR in his best game of the season. 

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27 minutes ago, jNYC1 said:

“Worst qb ever trajectory” is only mildly hyperbolic.

 

Nonsense. For the simple reason that Zach Wilson has only played 12 complete games as an NFL QB. Rookie years should be taken with some amount of salt. Christian Hackenberg, who couldn't even get on the field as a second round draft pick, was on the "worst QB ever trajectory."

If he looks like he did at start of year 1 in year 2, then we can talk. 

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10 hours ago, T0mShane said:

The Athletic Football Show podcast with Robert Mays and Nate Tice did a pretty comprehensive breakdown of the 2021 rookies, which I found pretty interesting, and you might, too! 
 

Highlights:

1. They loved Zach’s arm talent and compact, quick delivery (which they compared to Aaron Rodgers).

2. They were excited about his play against the Bucs zone defense.

3. Zach’s numbers against man to man and the blitz were, by far, the worst in the league, which they attribute to lack of familiarity with receivers and also the fact that his line at BYU was comically good.

3. Tice said that Zach is, and always was, a project who probably wasn’t ready to play. Had no plan on any particular play and was only good on plays where he had his first read.

4. They loved LaFleur’s scheme and raved about the talent he has around him this upcoming year.

Starts around the 20 minute mark.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-athletic-football-show-a-show-about-the-nfl/id1528622068?i=1000562761323

 

#3 is my concern. Translating what he has in his head to the field. Can he get through his reads clearly and accurately?

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3 hours ago, HawkeyeJet said:

The things they say Wilson struggles with the most are largely things he simply never dealt with before.  Maybe he never will be able to deal with those thing.  It’s possible those things never develop but it does give me a glimmer of hope that his strengths from college are still translating and hopefully he can learn the rest the more he sees it.

The thing I kept getting stuck on pre-draft was the fact that Zach was sacked only 11 times in 12 games, and it was crazy how consistently clean his pocket was in college. Obviously, he was never going to see that again, especially for a player who holds the ball as long as he does. How a young QB operates in the face of a pass rush is, obviously one of a small handful of factors that can make or break a career. To date, Zach has been a Bugs Bunny cartoon when pressured, and I think that’s the one issue that could be the death knell if he doesn’t magically improve in that aspect. He’s a smaller guy, to boot, so it’s hard to ever see him as a guy who will ever be able to operate from a pocket with any success.

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1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I have no idea what you’re talking about here. 

Outside of Chris Simms and a handful of Jets homers nobody on the planet thought anyone but Lawrence was QB1 and plenty of people myself included viewed Fields as a better option than Wilson — it wasn’t really until after the season that Wilson really started shooting up mocks as it became clear he was seen as the number two prospect. Fields has literally been the 1B to Lawrence’s 1A since they were in high school.

So no, I don’t agree at all that Wilson was seen as a slam dunk generational prospect in the vein of Lawrence. I really don’t think that was a common narrative anywhere.

I’m just taking exception to your assertion that Fields showed himself to be as advertised while Wilson did not — I have zero idea what I have in Fields if I’m the Bears. Like, he’s a big physical athlete with a strong arm, so yeah, I know I have that… But I have zero idea if he can play QB at this level. He couldn’t in 2021.

Lawrence, Fields and Wilson all looked like huge busts as rookies and the 2021 QB class looks like a massive whiff so far. Lance can’t get on the field and noodle armed Mac was easily the best of the bunch with future journeyman Mills in 2nd. No other assessment of the situation is in touch with reality, IMO.

Yeah, at this point, you're like repeating things I've said and then taking it places I didnt go.  lol 

Personally, I think they all showed they could play in the NFL but for different reasons and only one of them is for the reasons you expected.  And once again, that's all I was saying, literally never gave anything more than that. lmfao.  This was fun!

 

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9 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The thing I kept getting stuck on pre-draft was the fact that Zach was sacked only 11 times in 12 games, and it was crazy how consistently clean his pocket was in college. Obviously, he was never going to see that again, especially for a player who holds the ball as long as he does. How a young QB operates in the face of a pass rush is, obviously one of a small handful of factors that can make or break a career. To date, Zach has been a Bugs Bunny cartoon when pressured, and I think that’s the one issue that could be the death knell if he doesn’t magically improve in that aspect. He’s a smaller guy, to boot, so it’s hard to ever see him as a guy who will ever be able to operate from a pocket with any success.

That and the accuracy are my biggest concern and I think the former is something you have to be born with. 

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1 hour ago, MykePM said:

I’m not pretending to know what type of player Zach is or how he’s going to perform this year.  After getting burned by Darnold, I’ve given up on hopeful projections based on flashes of potential.  Maybe we can find common ground there.

I think where I (and possibly others) have been challenging you is with your hyperbolic statements like “worst QB ever trajectory” and that Zach has shown us literally nothing of the traits he was supposed to have.  It’s tough to debate those points, because they are opinion-based and you seem pretty entrenched with them.  However, I feel pretty confident in saying that I’ve seen Zach display a strong downfield arm on some plays, off-script playmaking ability at times, and also accuracy (he made one throw at the end of one of the Pats games that even impressed Belichick).  If you want to deny that those things happened, there’s not much left to discuss, because your view of reality is too different from mine.  If you’re invalidating the moments when he showed those traits, because he didn’t show them consistently enough, I’ve already conceded that.

I think Zach can be a great QB if he can learn when to try to make big plays (which he’s shown he has the physical talent to do successfully) vs. playing hero ball, and balance staying on-script and taking what’s given to him with going off-script and creating when the designed play breaks down.  I don’t know if he can make that transition (Darnold couldn’t), so if that’s your point - I guess we can just agree about the uncertainty, wait to see what happens and hope for the best.

 

 

The bold is really all my point has been this entire time and it's ok, maybe I didnt explain it well.  Clearly I confused my main man Untouchable. 

Besides that, sure it's opinion but he was awful dude.  He was playing like the worst starting QB I've ever seen preinjury.  You disagree cool but it was that ugly IMO and I'm not in the business of glimpses anymore.  We've been there done that besides, I didnt go there, you did.  I simply said he's not what was billed.  That's all.  Very simple, IMO accurate statement.  

 

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50 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Zach Wilson is a “ street ball magic” type of player. 
 

I expect him to look more comfortable and try to maintain some of the ball control stuff they neutered him to get a handle on. Then BOOM bitch! Gonna just street ball certain plays and launch some deep stuff. Not sure our guy, the other guy or the guy standing on the sidelines will catch it but I expect to be hot son! 
 

His strength as a player is he’s way tougher than he looks and so far has no quit in him,  even though he had a couple teary times. Real mean cry! He’s also got  that street ball off platform magic, say he don’t, I freaking dare you! 
 

He certainly has the arm talent the was touted to have but also way slower processing the game as advertised. So they had to reel him in some. Kid can certainly make all the throws when he’s not running straight backwards. I’m excited to see him combine the ball control stuff they taught him that he played with down the stretch with his STREETBALL MAGIC! Jab, jab, jab POWERSHOT. TD!!!!!! Do you think you could even take his  power shot? Haha, no. 
 

Except, we didnt see the street ball magic except 1 throw and 1 very fluky never happen again run.  We saw a game manager check down Charlie who was scared to throw the ball down field and again, that's my point.  What are we getting?  The Mahomes/Rodgers/blah blah blah comparison or Jimmy G lite? 

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11 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The thing I kept getting stuck on pre-draft was the fact that Zach was sacked only 11 times in 12 games, and it was crazy how consistently clean his pocket was in college. Obviously, he was never going to see that again, especially for a player who holds the ball as long as he does. How a young QB operates in the face of a pass rush is, obviously one of a small handful of factors that can make or break a career. To date, Zach has been a Bugs Bunny cartoon when pressured, and I think that’s the one issue that could be the death knell if he doesn’t magically improve in that aspect. He’s a smaller guy, to boot, so it’s hard to ever see him as a guy who will ever be able to operate from a pocket with any success.

It’s all about making quicker decisions. He struggled with that quite a bit, especially earlier in the year. 
 

His height is fine. He’s the same height as Aaron Rodgers. The biggest issue with his frame is getting hurt, but he’s clearly bulked up, so we’ll see how that works for him. 

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17 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The thing I kept getting stuck on pre-draft was the fact that Zach was sacked only 11 times in 12 games, and it was crazy how consistently clean his pocket was in college. Obviously, he was never going to see that again, especially for a player who holds the ball as long as he does. How a young QB operates in the face of a pass rush is, obviously one of a small handful of factors that can make or break a career. To date, Zach has been a Bugs Bunny cartoon when pressured, and I think that’s the one issue that could be the death knell if he doesn’t magically improve in that aspect. He’s a smaller guy, to boot, so it’s hard to ever see him as a guy who will ever be able to operate from a pocket with any success.

Yeah, except, I felt like the times he did look the best is when he did just operate quickly from the pocket.  When he was getting it out fast to his first option or a check down, he was efficient and able to move the chains.  It's when the play broke down, all the "street ball magic" that Dr. Crushlove called it, wasnt there.  He looked lost.  Footwork a mess, with no plan and lost his accuracy, etc.  The best play I saw from him this season were from the pocket.  Everyone freaks about the Davis play, its the ball to Cole on the sideline on the deep cross that was his best play of that game/and arguably the season.

 

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We all know that Wilson has all the tools including an elite arm to be a great QB BUT to me the very good great QBs are capable of two things: 

1. When they look at the coverage they are  75% certain which read will be getting the ball. In other words he may see  #1 read has little chance of getting open based on the defense coverage and read #3 based on the coverage will most likely be open. Therefore read #1 and #2 become a quick check down to get to #3

2. On the other side of the coin they  have the mental quickness to move to other reads when their anticipated read is not open. It’s not about rushing blindly through your reads - it’s quality looks. 

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Zach Wilson is the only player I've ever seen have takes about him range from "special, Mahomes/Rodgers Top five ability" to "worst QB I've ever seen play with my own two eyes." 

It's really something. I've never seen someone simultaneously boom and bust 

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2 hours ago, slimjasi said:

Possible, but debatable and not necessarily indicative of a QB's future trajectory. Most rookie QBs struggle and many struggle mightily. Wilson showed flashes of brilliance. If he can become more consistent, he can be a good player. If he can't, he won't. Obsessing over his rookie statistics really isn't particularly helpful. 

 

Also, with respect to the situation, the Jets were playing with 4th string WRs and backup OLs by the end of the season. Wilson played several games without Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Jameson Crowder. Braxton Berrios was his best WR in his best game of the season. 

Most rookie QBs who never succeed, struggle mightily.  Recent history shows those QBs that DON’T struggle mightily as rookies, are more likely to become average or above average QBs in the league.

In the last 10 years, outside of Josh Allen, most Top 15 rookie QBs that struggle as badly as Zach, don’t succeed or reach FQB status.

Perhaps Lamar might be one exception but he wasn’t a Top 15 pick, and his freakish running ability make him another anomaly.

I may be missing something.  There has been an influx of great QB talent in the last ten years.  There are only 2 examples of QBs turning it around that I can think of after struggling mightily in rookie season - Josh Allen and Jared Goff.  (Lamar’s wasn’t great as a rookie 6/3 TD/int, 5 rushing TDs, and a 84.5 passer rating).

No need to obsess over rookie stats, but they don’t get thrown out either.  Zach might be the answer if HE can put it together like we hope.

 

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Cyberjet said:

We all know that Wilson has all the tools including an elite arm to be a great QB BUT to me the very good great QBs are capable of two things: 

1. When they look at the coverage they are  75% certain which read will be getting the ball. In other words he may see  #1 read has little chance of getting open based on the defense coverage and read #3 based on the coverage will most likely be open. Therefore read #1 and #2 become a quick check down to get to #3

2. On the other side of the coin they  have the mental quickness to move to other reads when their anticipated read is not open. It’s not about rushing blindly through your reads - it’s quality looks. 

Good list.  The ability to do 1 & 2 consistently can be more important than an elite arm.

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16 minutes ago, jNYC1 said:

Most rookie QBs who never succeed, struggle mightily.  Recent history shows those that don’t struggle mightily as rookies, are more likely to become average or above average QBs in the league.

In the last 10 years, outside of Josh Allen, most Top 15 rookie QBs that struggle as badly as Zach, don’t succeed or reach FQB status.

Perhaps Lamar might be one exception but he wasn’t a Top 15 pick, and his freakish running ability make him another anomaly.

I may be missing something.  There has been an influx of great QB talent in the last ten years.  There are only 2 examples of QBs turning it around that I can think of after struggling mightily in rookie season - Josh Allen and Jared Goff.  (Lamar’s wasn’t great as a rookie 6/3 TD/int, 5 rushing TDs, and a 84.5 passer rating)

 

 

 

I'm not a NFL historian, all I can like speak of is what I've seen. I've seen Sanchez, Hackenberg, Darnold, and Geno bust. In my most homeristic moments when/if they played well, I thought, "Ok maybe he could be a decent QB." I don't recall ever a moment of feeling "damn maybe he could be special."

That makes a big difference to me. Of course, that may mean nothing in the long run. But at least I know I'm not seeing things as the guys mentioned in the podcast this very thread is about have seen it too. 

(P.S I'm not saying there are no negatives.)

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7 minutes ago, yvj said:

I'm not a NFL historian, all I can like speak of is what I've seen. I've seen Sanchez, Hackenberg, Darnold, and Geno bust. In my most homeristic moments when/if they played well, I thought, "Ok maybe he could be a decent QB." I don't recall ever a moment of feeling "damn maybe he could be special."

That makes a big difference to me. Of course, that may mean nothing in the long run. But at least I know I'm not seeing things as the guys mentioned in the podcast this very thread is about have seen it too. 

(P.S I'm not saying there are no negatives.)

Haha - I hear you.  I do think Darnold passed the eye test for “special” in a couple of games.  I still remember Geno posting a perfect passer rating against the Fins and thinking it passed the eye test.

In my old age, flashes and eye tests are now about consistency.  Does the guy look like a competent QB 95% of the time…

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5 hours ago, maury77 said:

By what standard was Fields worse?

By most.  He was ranked below Zach.  Think only ESPN and their QBR ranked Fields barely better.  He also had more around him.  Personally I don't see where anyone can claim Fields was what we thought he was and ZW wasn't.  That's pretty funny actually.  All that extra OSU experience should have given Fields a head start and it's not evident anywhere.  

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4 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Except, we didnt see the street ball magic except 1 throw and 1 very fluky never happen again run.  We saw a game manager check down Charlie who was scared to throw the ball down field and again, that's my point.  What are we getting?  The Mahomes/Rodgers/blah blah blah comparison or Jimmy G lite? 

The Jags game with 3 long runs that made Tampa decide to go zone?  
 

Multiple runs to avoid the rush against Miami?  (Ridiculous 1st down rush and to avoid a sack on the trick play toss back)

Stepping up into the pocket to get crushed and hit Mims week 1.  
 

There was plenty of @The Crusher‘s  Street ball magic.  If you watch the every pass play videos it’s sick how many time a play starts with Olé as someone comes untouched up the middle.  
 

Also @T0mShane didn’t the podcast talk about Zach’s torque throw allowing him to work from a small phone booth?  

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