Pretty fair breakdown of Zach Wilson and second year QBs *WARNING PODCAST LINK*

[slimjasi]

3 hours ago, jNYC1 said:

Most rookie QBs who never succeed, struggle mightily.  Recent history shows those QBs that DON’T struggle mightily as rookies, are more likely to become average or above average QBs in the league.

In the last 10 years, outside of Josh Allen, most Top 15 rookie QBs that struggle as badly as Zach, don’t succeed or reach FQB status.

Perhaps Lamar might be one exception but he wasn’t a Top 15 pick, and his freakish running ability make him another anomaly.

I may be missing something.  There has been an influx of great QB talent in the last ten years.  There are only 2 examples of QBs turning it around that I can think of after struggling mightily in rookie season - Josh Allen and Jared Goff.  (Lamar’s wasn’t great as a rookie 6/3 TD/int, 5 rushing TDs, and a 84.5 passer rating).

No need to obsess over rookie stats, but they don’t get thrown out either.  Zach might be the answer if HE can put it together like we hope.

 

 

 

 

To my knowledge, there is no statistical evidence that an NFL QB’s rookie season is a significant predictor of future longterm success or failure.

the reason is quite interesting - it’s because most of ALL QBs bust or disappoint, at least to some degree, and the rookie year doesn’t sway things very much in the long run. Too many examples of guys who sucked at first but got good AND examples of guys who got off to hot starts but either cooled off or were ruined by injuries. Those examples add up, making the average rookie year somewhat of a statistical wash in the long run. I would expect the same is true at most positions. 

There was a study that was brought up on this board a while back that looked at this

[slimjasi]

2 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Zach Wilson and Justin Fields are already better than Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence hype lacked substance. 

 

Why? What realistically separates them right now? 

All had disappointing rookie seasons on bad teams but have plenty of talent. 

[JohnnyLV]

3 hours ago, jNYC1 said:

Most rookie QBs who never succeed, struggle mightily.  Recent history shows those QBs that DON’T struggle mightily as rookies, are more likely to become average or above average QBs in the league.

In the last 10 years, outside of Josh Allen, most Top 15 rookie QBs that struggle as badly as Zach, don’t succeed or reach FQB status.

Perhaps Lamar might be one exception but he wasn’t a Top 15 pick, and his freakish running ability make him another anomaly.

I may be missing something.  There has been an influx of great QB talent in the last ten years.  There are only 2 examples of QBs turning it around that I can think of after struggling mightily in rookie season - Josh Allen and Jared Goff.  (Lamar’s wasn’t great as a rookie 6/3 TD/int, 5 rushing TDs, and a 84.5 passer rating).

No need to obsess over rookie stats, but they don’t get thrown out either.  Zach might be the answer if HE can put it together like we hope.

 

 

 

 

One of the things you are missing is an unfortunate pattern or cycle that has emerged in the NFL. Here's what happens:

1. Team struggles gets high first round pick QB or trades up for one

2.  QB plays the season, struggles and team winds up with another high pick

3. Team fires HC/OC (usually both) and GM and then brings in new HC/OC that installs all new system

4. Second year QB struggles again because most of what he learned gets tossed away, he has to learn all new playback and by the time he does it is late in the season and he struggles again

5. Team makes "offensive changes" struggles ensue and he becomes a bust.

Many of these situations are also accompanied with teams that draft a QB and then mysteriously focus on defense in draft and free agency.

This cycle happened with Geno and Sam. Just this season Lawrence, Fields and Mills are in this exact situation and even Jones has a new OC. Their careers are seriously in danger. if you go back it happens with a very very significant amount of high QB draft picks Baker and Rosen from Sam's year. It may happen more than 50% of the time.

Now let's look at KC and Buffalo. KC sat Mahomes for a year and let him walk into an offense that was loaded. Would Mahomes have made it on the Jets? Maybe but not 100% sure.

Josh Allen sucked his first year, but Buffalo went out and bought an OL and kept building weapons. He was still mediocre at best even in his second year but he was in same system same OC and got more and more weapons. Then he exploded in year 3.

I have become a huge proponent of the concept that the development environment a QB gets is maybe 50% or more of a factor in his success and teams by not being patient are ruining the QBs they draft.

Luckily for us, we finally do not have that situation with Zach. He has same HC, OC and system in year 2 and the team has gone out of their way to surround him as best as possible with protection and weapons,

People love to say "Zach does not have any more excuses" but I think the right thing to say is "Zach has the right situation to develop"

History would say he has a good chance.

 

 

[JohnnyLV]

27 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Why? What realistically separates them right now? 

All had disappointing rookie seasons on bad teams but have plenty of talent. 

I will say that to my eye Fields looked awful and he has a horrible situation in Chicago, and to be honest I think he will ultimately bust (I know @JiFapono thinks he looked awesome) Lawrence looked pretty mediocre and not a whole lot of wow factor in his game to make you think he will be a generational guy, Jones looked OK but really sort of regressed towards the end of the year and just seems to have a ceiling of noodle arm if that. Mills looked pretty decent to me actually.

But you are correct that how they looked or their statistics are really not correlated with ultimate success at all. I will tell you that Brees failed the eye test as bad as any QB I have ever seen his first 2 seasons. And well he turned out OK

 

[jNYC1]

43 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

To my knowledge, there is no statistical evidence that an NFL QB’s rookie season is a significant predictor of future longterm success or failure.

the reason is quite interesting - it’s because most of ALL QBs bust or disappoint, at least to some degree, and the rookie year doesn’t sway things very much in the long run. Too many examples of guys who sucked at first but got good AND examples of guys who got off to hot starts but either cooled off or were ruined by injuries. Those examples add up, making the average rookie year somewhat of a statistical wash in the long run. I would expect the same is true at most positions. 

There was a study that was brought up on this board a while back that looked at this

In the last 10 years, I would be interested in learning about the "Too many examples of guys who sucked at first but got good." 

My only point is that it is a very short list.  Most of QBs in the last 10 years that have turned out to be good, were competent in their rookie years.

 

[slimjasi]

12 minutes ago, jNYC1 said:

In the last 10 years, I would be interested in learning about the "Too many examples of guys who sucked at first but got good." 

My only point is that it is a very short list.  Most of QBs in the last 10 years that have turned out to be good, were competent in their rookie years.

 

Right - I’m talking overall historical tends, but yes, I would like to see an updated look

 

And yes, recently, there haven’t been many. You are absolutely right.  But I don’t think the last ten years are magical either. This stuff all fluctuates. 
 

My theory with young players is that you identify guys with traits you like and you try to develop them. Give them 2-3 years of the best coaching and resources you possibly can and decide if they are your longterm answer at the position. 
 

wilson will probably not work out here, but I don’t think his rookie season is a death spell and I do think he has legit talent and is surrounded by an interesting young roster. He has a better chance than Darnold did. 
 

 

[jNYC1]

18 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

One of the things you are missing is an unfortunate pattern or cycle that has emerged in the NFL. Here's what happens:

1. Team struggles gets high first round pick QB or trades up for one

2.  QB plays the season, struggles and team winds up with another high pick

3. Team fires HC/OC (usually both) and GM and then brings in new HC/OC that installs all new system

4. Second year QB struggles again because most of what he learned gets tossed away, he has to learn all new playback and by the time he does it is late in the season and he struggles again

5. Team makes "offensive changes" struggles ensue and he becomes a bust.

Many of these situations are also accompanied with teams that draft a QB and then mysteriously focus on defense in draft and free agency.

This cycle happened with Geno and Sam. Just this season Lawrence, Fields and Mills are in this exact situation and even Jones has a new OC. Their careers are seriously in danger. if you go back it happens with a very very significant amount of high QB draft picks Baker and Rosen from Sam's year. It may happen more than 50% of the time.

Now let's look at KC and Buffalo. KC sat Mahomes for a year and let him walk into an offense that was loaded. Would Mahomes have made it on the Jets? Maybe but not 100% sure.

Josh Allen sucked his first year, but Buffalo went out and bought an OL and kept building weapons. He was still mediocre at best even in his second year but he was in same system same OC and got more and more weapons. Then he exploded in year 3.

I have become a huge proponent of the concept that the development environment a QB gets is maybe 50% or more of a factor in his success and teams by not being patient are ruining the QBs they draft.

Luckily for us, we finally do not have that situation with Zach. He has same HC, OC and system in year 2 and the team has gone out of their way to surround him as best as possible with protection and weapons,

People love to say "Zach does not have any more excuses" but I think the right thing to say is "Zach has the right situation to develop"

History would say he has a good chance.

 

 

Agree on continuity being huge, and a good reason to be optimistic about Zach progressing.  The team has done everything "right" to give Zach the opportunity to develop. 

Off the top of my head from last few drafts:

Continuity: Josh Allen, Lamar, Mahomes, Burrow, Dak, Trubisky

Multiple Coordinators: Darnold, Baker, Herbert, Tua, Mariota, Rosen,

I will also say continuity alone is interesting.  A little chicken and egg.  QB doesn't look good in his first or second season, the easy answer is poor coaching, and coaches get fired... further confusing the development of the QB, and the evaluation of the QB.

Personally, I hope we stick with this coaching staff.

[jNYC1]

10 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Right - I’m talking overall historical tends, but yes, I would like to see an updated look

 

And yes, recently, there haven’t been many. You are absolutely right.  But I don’t think the last ten years are magical either. This stuff all fluctuates. 
 

My theory with young players is that you identify guys with traits you like and you try to develop them. Give them 2-3 years of the best coaching and resources you possibly can and decide if they are your longterm answer at the position. 
 

wilson will probably not work out here, but I don’t think his rookie season is a death spell and I do think he has legit talent and is surrounded by an interesting young roster. He has a better chance than Darnold did. 
 

 

The reason I think the last 10 years is particularly relevant, is the changes in rules, schemes, and approach to favor offensive production.  Total QB production/ offense (league totals) is at an all time high.

Agree that Zach has better chance than Darnold.

Agree - 2-3 year development commitment - unless year 2 = bottom 5-10 QB.

Rookie season doesn't determine future.  We can all agree.  Luckily those who are taken highly get a little more time and consideration (the Minshews of the world are easily dismissed because of the lack of elite upside)

[JustInFudge]

5 hours ago, johnnysd said:

I will say that to my eye Fields looked awful and he has a horrible situation in Chicago, and to be honest I think he will ultimately bust (I know @JiFapono thinks he looked awesome) Lawrence looked pretty mediocre and not a whole lot of wow factor in his game to make you think he will be a generational guy, Jones looked OK but really sort of regressed towards the end of the year and just seems to have a ceiling of noodle arm if that. Mills looked pretty decent to me actually.

But you are correct that how they looked or their statistics are really not correlated with ultimate success at all. I will tell you that Brees failed the eye test as bad as any QB I have ever seen his first 2 seasons. And well he turned out OK

 

lmfao - you guys crack me up.  I've never said anything close to that, solid troll job though.

[GreenFish]

6 hours ago, slimjasi said:

To my knowledge, there is no statistical evidence that an NFL QB’s rookie season is a significant predictor of future longterm success or failure.

the reason is quite interesting - it’s because most of ALL QBs bust or disappoint, at least to some degree, and the rookie year doesn’t sway things very much in the long run. Too many examples of guys who sucked at first but got good AND examples of guys who got off to hot starts but either cooled off or were ruined by injuries. Those examples add up, making the average rookie year somewhat of a statistical wash in the long run. I would expect the same is true at most positions. 

There was a study that was brought up on this board a while back that looked at this

Yup. Ive heard this argument a few times from the analytics community. People bring up Josh Allen, but you can also go from the opposite direction. Baker and RG3 started their careers like fire. As Jets fans we should know. Baker smoked us that first game he came off the bench and he looked great his rookie season. Where are they now? Jared Goff was also awful his rookie year and has developed into a descent QB. Matthew Stafford is another. There are all types of examples with little consistency. Nobody can say definitely what Zach will be. Since most QBs bust, he has a higher chance to bust. But that’s just because of the high bust rate of the position to begin with.

[JustInFudge]

4 hours ago, jNYC1 said:

The reason I think the last 10 years is particularly relevant, is the changes in rules, schemes, and approach to favor offensive production.  Total QB production/ offense (league totals) is at an all time high.

Agree that Zach has better chance than Darnold.

Agree - 2-3 year development commitment - unless year 2 = bottom 5-10 QB.

Rookie season doesn't determine future.  We can all agree.  Luckily those who are taken highly get a little more time and consideration (the Minshews of the world are easily dismissed because of the lack of elite upside)

I dont think the list is very long, or all that compelling.  Josh Allen the most extreme outlier, possibly ever.  Ryan Tannehill to a lesser extent.  Jared Goff maybe?  Every other starter showed competency as a rookie or sucked and still sucks.   2 interesting stories will be Trubisky and Mariota, 2 busts with a chance to revitalize their career. 

Darnold IMO showed much much more promise than Wilson as a rookie in a much much worse situation and then doubled down on that terrible situation and made it even worse by hiring Adam Gase.  The offense, the weapons, tragic mishandling of a rookie QB, good or bad, it was criminal.  Zach's offense is loaded and for that reason alone, I think Zach has probably the best chance of any QB in recent memory who was miserable as a rookie but has a serious chance to turn it around in year 2.  Namely because I think Lil Mikey is legit and I do think this offense will have be top 3 in rush attempts and a top 5-10 running team, which will clearly help Zach not feel as pressured to make sh*t happen. 

 

 

[JustInFudge]

6 hours ago, Hal N of Provo said:

The Jags game with 3 long runs that made Tampa decide to go zone?  
 

Multiple runs to avoid the rush against Miami?  (Ridiculous 1st down rush and to avoid a sack on the trick play toss back)

Stepping up into the pocket to get crushed and hit Mims week 1.  
 

There was plenty of @The Crusher‘s  Street ball magic.  If you watch the every pass play videos it’s sick how many time a play starts with Olé as someone comes untouched up the middle.  
 

Also @T0mShane didn’t the podcast talk about Zach’s torque throw allowing him to work from a small phone booth?  

Plenty?  Lol. no, no. 

[Matt39]

12 hours ago, maury77 said:

By what standard was Fields worse?

He took a sack seemingly every other time he dropped back. Basically how he looked against Northwestern was how he looked every game as a pro.

[The Crusher]

7 hours ago, Hal N of Provo said:

The Jags game with 3 long runs that made Tampa decide to go zone?  
 

Multiple runs to avoid the rush against Miami?  (Ridiculous 1st down rush and to avoid a sack on the trick play toss back)

Stepping up into the pocket to get crushed and hit Mims week 1.  
 

There was plenty of @The Crusher‘s  Street ball magic.  If you watch the every pass play videos it’s sick how many time a play starts with Olé as someone comes untouched up the middle.  
 

Also @T0mShane didn’t the podcast talk about Zach’s torque throw allowing him to work from a small phone booth?  

SBM!!!!!

[JustInFudge]

37 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

He took a sack seemingly every other time he dropped back. Basically how he looked against Northwestern was how he looked every game as a pro.

Meh, not really even a remotely accurate statement and completely lack context or portrayal of the situation.  If we're in comparison mode;  Fields played behind easily the worst OL in Football, with by arguably the worst supporting cast in Football and  a lame duck lost HC who was seemingly setting up Fields for failure and just got done ruining another highly drafted QB.  Fields took a sack at basically the exact same rate as Zach Wilson who played behind a top 10 OL with weapons all around him and in offensive scheme that put Mike White's jersey into the Hall of Fame.   You're also not factoring how Fields improved in that dept.  Took 9 sacks in his 2nd game as starter, and drastically reduced that number as the season went on.   Roughly 1 sack per 8 drop backs for both players, the percentage was like 1 point in favor of Wilson.  Wilson however, playing behind a much superior line, took 5 sacks in a game or more, 4 times and 8 sacks in the last game of the season.  Fields took more than 5 sacks, once, and that was his 2nd start as a pro. 

 

 

 

[The Crusher]

12 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Except, we didnt see the street ball magic except 1 throw and 1 very fluky never happen again run.  We saw a game manager check down Charlie who was scared to throw the ball down field and again, that's my point.  What are we getting?  The Mahomes/Rodgers/blah blah blah comparison or Jimmy G lite? 

OMG. Really? Dude came in game one slinging the rock like a damn boss!. His line, coaches and receivers failed him miserably that game. He digressed from their and it was obvious game was too fast for him, the offense was terribly out of sync, line was lost and his receivers couldn’t catch mono let alone a damn football. He went into the toilet after that, but it wasn’t because he didn’t have any street ball magic, it was because he wasn’t ready do it at the NFL level. Pro tip: neither was the Uber athletic, long ball master, clutch dog Justin Fields. No shame in it. 
 

After that the coaches shut him down and made him play Mike White ball. Hey, I’m not saying he’s gonna be good or he’s going to be our QB next year, simply saying he’s a Street ball magic QB. Not his fault the team  that drafted him wasn’t ready for it, he wasn’t ready to do it at the next level and the only consistent receiver he had who could stay on the field was one Braxton Berrios. 

[slats]

16 hours ago, T0mShane said:

They did say that, but in a sort of “she has a nice personality” sort of affect. Did you come away from it thinking they were as high on Zach as they were on Lawrence, Fields, or Jones?

Ugh, it’s comments like this that will make me listen to the stupid thing. No one twists a narrative to fit their worldview quite the way you do. 

14 hours ago, JiFapono said:

He threw for 230 yards and 1 TD at 57% comp.  Smoked?  lmfao  We have different definitions.

 

Braxton Berrios was his #1 receiver that day with 8 catches, 65 yards, and a TD. #2? Ty Johnson with 3 catches, and then Yeboah, Cole, and Brown all tied with 2. Dan Feeney was the starting center and Jeff Smith was on the field for 97% of the offensive snaps and managed to catch a pass. 
 
Give it a little context, and he did a pretty good job that week. 

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

23 hours ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

It’s no surprise he was poor against man when he had no receivers that could get open half the year.  
 

This season will be very telling if it was the line, receivers, Zach, or a combination of all.  
 

I’m a homer to the extreme, but still feel great about Zach. 

Amen.  Say that 1 more time Jimmy!!

[GreenFish]

7 hours ago, jNYC1 said:

In the last 10 years, I would be interested in learning about the "Too many examples of guys who sucked at first but got good." 

My only point is that it is a very short list.  Most of QBs in the last 10 years that have turned out to be good, were competent in their rookie years.

 

The rule changes you are likely referring to occurred throughout the 2000's and concluded in 2009 when they protected defenseless WRs and made it a penalty to hit QBs below the waste.

Since 2009 (1st round QBs) keeping it general with boom (defined as a very promising year) or bust years.

Boom to Boom: Mahomes, Watson, Luck, Cam Newton, Murray, Burrow, Herbert

Bust to Boom: Matt Stafford (awful to great), Ryan Tannehill (awful to very good), Jared Goff (awful to average QB), Josh Allen (awful to great), Carson Wentz (bad to great to slightly above avg)

Avg to Boom: Lamar Jackson. I wouldn't categorize his rookie season as bust level.

Boom to Bust: RG3. He was Lamar Jackson esque that first year and then fell off quickly.

Boom to IDK: Jameis Winston. Would you want him as your QB? He had a very good rookie year.

Boom to IDK: Baker Mayfield. Had an excellent rookie year. We saw that first hand when he torched us and he's probably now an avg QB at best.

 

Lots of guys just bust and there were guys were who excellent out of the gate and continued that way. But there are guys who sucked and became good. And vice versa. Hopefully I didn't miss anyone. Guys that I left off were just straight up bust or journeymen guys like Teddy Bridgewater.

 

For reference, there were 36 QBs drafted in the 1st round over that time. In my estimation:

- 56% showed little promise their rookie year and they proved to be poor starting QBs

- 19% showed great promise their rookie year and they proved to be really good

- 17% showed little promise their rookie year and made significant strides

- 8% showed great promise their rookie year and proved to be poor starting QBs

Some of these guys can still rewrite their careers though.

 

 

[maury77]

1 hour ago, Matt39 said:

He took a sack seemingly every other time he dropped back. Basically how he looked against Northwestern was how he looked every game as a pro.

I respect your opinion. I watched some of the games and I came away with a different opinion. Most of the advanced statistics support my opinion more than yours, but to each his own I suppose. 

[JustInFudge]

29 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

OMG. Really? Dude came in game one slinging the rock like a damn boss!. His line, coaches and receivers failed him miserably that game. He digressed from their and it was obvious game was too fast for him, the offense was terribly out of sync, line was lost and his receivers couldn’t catch mono let alone a damn football. He went into the toilet after that, but it wasn’t because he didn’t have any street ball magic, it was because he wasn’t ready do it at the NFL level. Pro tip: neither was the Uber athletic, long ball master, clutch dog Justin Fields. No shame in it. 
 

After that the coaches shut him down and made him play Mike White ball. Hey, I’m not saying he’s gonna be good or he’s going to be our QB next year, simply saying he’s a Street ball magic QB. Not his fault the team  that drafted him wasn’t ready for it, he wasn’t ready to do it at the next level and the only consistent receiver he had who could stay on the field was one Braxton Berrios. 

I'm just going to have disagree, muffin top.  1 play doesnt define "street ball magic" the dude was a disaster when he had operate off script.  We'll see if it comes out.

[Matt39]

14 minutes ago, maury77 said:

I respect your opinion. I watched some of the games and I came away with a different opinion. Most of the advanced statistics support my opinion more than yours, but to each his own I suppose. 

Which ones? Football Outsiders had him as the worst QB in the league.

[maury77]

8 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Which ones? Football Outsiders had him as the worst QB in the league.

PFF had him as the second highest rated rookie QB. Football Outsiders, according to DYAR, had the rookies as follows:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2021

Mac Jones

Davis Mills

Justin Fields

Trevor Lawrence

Zach Wilson. 

Both PFF and Football Outsiders had Fields above Wilson. Neither of them were good under both sites, but Fields was better. 

[The Crusher]

32 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

I'm just going to have disagree, muffin top.  1 play doesnt define "street ball magic" the dude was a disaster when he had operate off script.  We'll see if it comes out.

Every play before his injury was street ball magic. I agree it only worked one time, but that doesn’t mean the kid doesn’t have it in him or that it’s ever going to work. But your original question was what do we have in him? SBM!!! That’s what. 
 

I would like to add out of Fields, Sunshine and Aunt Berniece he had a ridiculous leap in competition. Must be a bitch the first time you see real pressure it’s at the NFL level while the O line is learning, not executing, but learning the blocking scheme. OMG! How did that not work? 

[UntouchableCrew]

13 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Yeah, at this point, you're like repeating things I've said and then taking it places I didnt go.  lol 

Personally, I think they all showed they could play in the NFL but for different reasons and only one of them is for the reasons you expected.  And once again, that's all I was saying, literally never gave anything more than that. lmfao.  This was fun!

 

Adding "LMAO!" and "LOL!" to the end of your sentences doesn't make your arguments stronger it just exudes insecurity and makes you completely insufferable, FYI.

[section314]

24 minutes ago, maury77 said:

PFF had him as the second highest rated rookie QB. Football Outsiders, according to DYAR, had the rookies as follows:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2021

Mac Jones

Davis Mills

Justin Fields

Trevor Lawrence

Zach Wilson. 

Both PFF and Football Outsiders had Fields above Wilson. Neither of them were good under both sites, but Fields was better. 

Good thing these two raggs weren't around when Aikman and Elway's careers started. They would have been run out of the NFL after their 2nd years.

[slats]

7 hours ago, johnnysd said:

History would say he has a good chance.

Agreed with the whole post right up until here. I don’t think history says he has a good chance. As far as this team is concerned, though, he’s got the best chance of any rookie QB the Jets have brought in since Pennington. 
 
I like the fact that they kept the coaches and QB room exactly the same. No new offense, no new position coach telling him something different. Just continue working on the same things he’s been working on since he was first drafted. Consistency has been lacking with this franchise for a long time. I wanted that veteran presence in the WR room, but there’s no denying that the only big change around Zach has been an influx of talent. The TE overhaul, itself, could be huge. The Jets are giving him every opportunity, and that’s all I can really ask for. 

[Matt39]

1 hour ago, maury77 said:

PFF had him as the second highest rated rookie QB. Football Outsiders, according to DYAR, had the rookies as follows:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2021

Mac Jones

Davis Mills

Justin Fields

Trevor Lawrence

Zach Wilson. 

Both PFF and Football Outsiders had Fields above Wilson. Neither of them were good under both sites, but Fields was better. 

Yeah I dont think I ever went back and checked after Week 17 when Zach didnt look like a pro QB. Either way, both of them were horrendous even for rookies.

[JohnnyLV]

1 hour ago, slats said:

Agreed with the whole post right up until here. I don’t think history says he has a good chance. As far as this team is concerned, though, he’s got the best chance of any rookie QB the Jets have brought in since Pennington. 
 
I like the fact that they kept the coaches and QB room exactly the same. No new offense, no new position coach telling him something different. Just continue working on the same things he’s been working on since he was first drafted. Consistency has been lacking with this franchise for a long time. I wanted that veteran presence in the WR room, but there’s no denying that the only big change around Zach has been an influx of talent. The TE overhaul, itself, could be huge. The Jets are giving him every opportunity, and that’s all I can really ask for. 

Yeah I think the TE room upgrade could be the most important thing JD has done for Zach's success and I think the magnitude of it is being seriously understated. We went from easily having the worst set of TEs in the entire NFL to having a group that is at minimum a Top 15-20 group. Both Uzomah and Conklin are solidly above average TEs. Uzomah brings a ton of leadership and was parr of the Cincy turnaround and then we draft Ruckert who many thought was the best TE in football to develop.

People are assuming we will just run 12 all the time and while I do think we will use that their presence will upgrade all personnel groupings including 11 which we will run more than 50% of the time. From a completion and receiving standpoint having reliable receivers is a massive change for the Jets offense. They are always called a young QBs security blanket and now Zach has it.

I still think Zach is an amazing prospect at QB and I expect him to be night and day compared to what we saw at the beginning of last year.

[Mogglez]

1 hour ago, Matt39 said:

Yeah I dont think I ever went back and checked after Week 17 when Zach didnt look like a pro QB. Either way, both of them were horrendous even for rookies.

If we’re all being honest with ourselves, pretty much every single one of these 1st round kids, outside of Jones, struggled mightily:

Zach had some flashy moments (2nd half gutsy performance against Carolina, Tennessee, most of the Eagles game, Jacksonville run, etc.) but some serious lows (NE, ATL, Denver, mechanics falling apart before the injury, “shovel fumble”, etc.)

Trevor looked anything but generational (didn’t throw a TD for over a month, and only had 1 total TD in 9 weeks coming into week 17), but flashed what made him the first overall pick in London against the Fins & week 18, against the Colts.

Fields showed some athleticism, but was very up and down in the passing game and had some duds of his own (Tampa & Cleveland in particular).  The game against Pittsburgh showed what he is capable of if he can put it together though.

Jordan Love comps are coming from some 49ers fans in regards to Lance because San Francisco is seriously considering starting Jimmy G for another full season.  I think that type of thinking is nonsense, but until Lance gets on the field over Jimmy, I can’t exactly say otherwise with merit.

The truth is the second year will tell you pretty much all you need to know because all of these kids are now in, what appear to be, great situations.  As it pertains to us, If Zach doesn’t show improvement, I’m perfectly fine moving on sooner rather than later.  Douglas has this team in the right position.  They can’t afford to hit a road-block and stall that progress for any single player.

[Hal N of Provo]

1 hour ago, Mogglez said:

If we’re all being honest with ourselves, pretty much every single one of these 1st round kids, outside of Jones, struggled mightily:

Zach had some flashy moments (2nd half gutsy performance against Carolina, Tennessee, most of the Eagles game, Jacksonville run, etc.) but some serious lows (NE, ATL, Denver, mechanics falling apart before the injury, “shovel fumble”, etc.)

Trevor looked anything but generational (didn’t throw a TD for over a month, and only had 1 total TD in 9 weeks coming into week 17), but flashed what made him the first overall pick in London against the Fins & week 18, against the Colts.

Fields showed some athleticism, but was very up and down in the passing game and had some duds of his own (Tampa & Cleveland in particular).  The game against Pittsburgh showed what he is capable of if he can put it together though.

Jordan Love comps are coming from some 49ers fans in regards to Lance because San Francisco is seriously considering starting Jimmy G for another full season.  I think that type of thinking is nonsense, but until Lance gets on the field over Jimmy, I can’t exactly say otherwise with merit.

The truth is the second year will tell you pretty much all you need to know because all of these kids are now in, what appear to be, great situations.  As it pertains to us, If Zach doesn’t show improvement, I’m perfectly fine moving on sooner rather than later.  Douglas has this team in the right position.  They can’t afford to hit a road-block and stall that progress for any single player.

Shovel fumble wasn’t off-script.  I found that play with the shovel on tape vs the Eagles in a preseason camp day.  RB shouldn’t have turned around.  

[maury77]

1 hour ago, Mogglez said:

If we’re all being honest with ourselves, pretty much every single one of these 1st round kids, outside of Jones, struggled mightily:

Zach had some flashy moments (2nd half gutsy performance against Carolina, Tennessee, most of the Eagles game, Jacksonville run, etc.) but some serious lows (NE, ATL, Denver, mechanics falling apart before the injury, “shovel fumble”, etc.)

Trevor looked anything but generational (didn’t throw a TD for over a month, and only had 1 total TD in 9 weeks coming into week 17), but flashed what made him the first overall pick in London against the Fins & week 18, against the Colts.

Fields showed some athleticism, but was very up and down in the passing game and had some duds of his own (Tampa & Cleveland in particular).  The game against Pittsburgh showed what he is capable of if he can put it together though.

Jordan Love comps are coming from some 49ers fans in regards to Lance because San Francisco is seriously considering starting Jimmy G for another full season.  I think that type of thinking is nonsense, but until Lance gets on the field over Jimmy, I can’t exactly say otherwise with merit.

The truth is the second year will tell you pretty much all you need to know because all of these kids are now in, what appear to be, great situations.  As it pertains to us, If Zach doesn’t show improvement, I’m perfectly fine moving on sooner rather than later.  Douglas has this team in the right position.  They can’t afford to hit a road-block and stall that progress for any single player.

This is a reasonable take. 

[Mogglez]

1 hour ago, maury77 said:

This is a reasonable take. 

[Jetsfan80]

6 hours ago, The Crusher said:

I would like to add out of Fields, Sunshine and Aunt Berniece he had a ridiculous leap in competition. Must be a bitch the first time you see real pressure it’s at the NFL level while the O line is learning, not executing, but learning the blocking scheme. OMG! How did that not work? 

This is a reason not to draft a QB like that # 2 overall in the first place....

[The Crusher]

12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

This is a reason not to draft a QB like that # 2 overall in the first place....

Or start him when the OC and head coach are learning  on the job. FU  Joe Douglas FU. Hard to fault the kid for that no?