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Q. Williams: Projecting second contracts for top 2019 NFL draft picks


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Brad Spielberger

Pro Football Focus

 

Quinnen Williams, DT, New York Jets

No. 3 overall pick

Williams didn't get off to the blazing fast start that many anticipated after a remarkable final college season at Alabama, but he has shown plenty of flashes through three seasons. The Jets should remain optimistic that he can become one of the best players at his position in due time, particularly as an interior pass-rusher.

Over the last two seasons, Williams' 73 quarterback pressures are a top-20 mark among interior defenders, and his 77.1 pass-rush grade ranks 15th. Now entering his second season under head coach Robert Saleh with more talent along the defensive line around him -- such as edge defenders Carl Lawson and rookie Jermaine Johnson II -- Williams could have a breakout campaign in his fourth season.

Free-agent addition cornerback D.J. Reed and 2022 fourth overall pick cornerback Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner also figure to keep the ball in opposing quarterbacks' hands longer after the snap, which could help Williams get home more frequently.

All of that said, this deal may not come until after the 2022 season, which gives Williams a great opportunity to boost his value as much as possible before cashing in.

Contract projection: Five years, $102.5 million ($20.5 million per year), $65 million total guaranteed

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2 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

I think they can find a replacement for much less $.  Do we really want to pay 10.5% of our cap this this guy or  guy like this?  

I know it's very premature, but 3 of the top 10 early mock picks are DT's.

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4 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

I guess we’re in for a few months of “no way I’m paying this QW guy” threads.

How do I know? In the eyes of Jet fans, no player is worth a second contract. Comp and draft picks, baby!

@hmhertz

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27 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

I think they can find a replacement for much less $.  Do we really want to pay 10.5% of our cap this this guy or  guy like this?  

Further if we let him walk we might be in line for a nice comp pick later on.  

Very fair question and potential strategy.  The Jets could use the money elsewhere and bag a premium pick.

If he plays like the last 2 years, I think the scenarios are pay him fair market value and if his demands are too high, trade him or let him walk.  Trade him if the Jets aren’t competitive and you can grab significantly better than a comp pick. Let him walk after the 5 years if the Jets are competitive and are significantly better with him on the field (considering how lean they are at DT).

What happens if he takes the next step and is a top 10 interior defensive lineman?  Assuming the Jets consider DT a premium position in their scheme, try to extend him at fair market value and if his demands are too high, use the franchise tag for 2 years. 

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1 hour ago, LIJetsFan said:

I think they can find a replacement for much less $.  Do we really want to pay 10.5% of our cap this this guy or  guy like this?  

Further if we let him walk we might be in line for a nice comp pick later on.  

Your question really does make you think.  Separate from Q (who is not elite .. yet), some teams might even take a strategy to trade an elite player any time the positional cap hit exceeds a certain threshold.  It’s not even a player specific decision but rather a positional one.

I think we might have seen that play out with the WR position this off-season.  Especially teams that have a franchise QB.  

- can a team with a franchise QB competitively afford an elite WR?  Do they even need an elite WR?  Or is the elite QB creating them (eg, Green Bay:  Driver, Jennings, Cobb, Nelson, Adams)?

- cash in the chip while you have bargaining power to ensure sustained success

So much strategy, that’s where the best GMs make their money.

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Good player, not a great player so far.  I would not sign him to big money. If he plays really well would franchise him when the time comes. Otherwise, trade/let him walk and replace with draft pick (probably first rounder)

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2 hours ago, Larz said:

Q and Becton will likely be traded for picks. Players with options usually don’t sign here. 
 

who is the last 1st round pick the jets extended ? Wilkerson?

Who was the last player worth an extension is the better question. Drafting has been terrible  in the past 

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3 hours ago, Larz said:

Q and Becton will likely be traded for picks. Players with options usually don’t sign here. 
 

who is the last 1st round pick the jets extended ? Wilkerson?

It's a good point, but I don't agree.  The Jets sh*tty drafting has been the issue.  That is a the main reason that they haven't signed those guys.  For that reason they haven't had that many guys that deserve a 2nd contract.  Pryor, Millner, Tiny Linebacker, Darnold.  If you can spin those squids off for picks, you do it.  Adams was shooting his way out of town and the haul they got is something you consider for almost anything other than star QB. 

Adams and Leonard Williams were the only dudes that were quality players that they didn't hang on to.  They moved them both for picks because they weren't worth the money they were going to get.  Williams in particular is a non-pass rushing DT and they had already added Quinnen.  Saving that money while getting the picks made sense.

DT and S are not positions you build a team with.  It made sense to get what you could and start fresh.  Now the team should be closer to competing and they should be hanging on to quality players rather than the fire sales that they had moving Bowles and Gase/Williams guys for picks.  I would expect them to hang on to a guy like Quinnen.  If they think he will be too expensive, they still will be at the point where it makes mroe sense to hang on to him and get the value out of him that season and get a comp pick later.  That hasn't been the case lately because we knew that winning an extra game wasn't going to matter.  Better to get the pick and run.  That should not be the case any more.  No more fire sales.

They have had trouble with Becton and Mims, so they might be moved, but I'm not as sure with Q

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Good teams are supposed to be able to draft guys like QW late in the first round when they pick.  They can play for 5 years than walk.  Maybe a FT.  Maybe another FT.  

The FT for a DT is like $17mm.  Its a one year commitment.  To give him 3 years guaranteed, for more than that, is crazy.  Particularly since he has not set the NFL on fire.  

 

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54 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

It's a good point, but I don't agree.  The Jets sh*tty drafting has been the issue.  That is a the main reason that they haven't signed those guys.  For that reason they haven't had that many guys that deserve a 2nd contract.  Pryor, Millner, Tiny Linebacker, Darnold.  If you can spin those squids off for picks, you do it.  Adams was shooting his way out of town and the haul they got is something you consider for almost anything other than star QB. 

Adams and Leonard Williams were the only dudes that were quality players that they didn't hang on to.  They moved them both for picks because they weren't worth the money they were going to get.  Williams in particular is a non-pass rushing DT and they had already added Quinnen.  Saving that money while getting the picks made sense.

DT and S are not positions you build a team with.  It made sense to get what you could and start fresh.  Now the team should be closer to competing and they should be hanging on to quality players rather than the fire sales that they had moving Bowles and Gase/Williams guys for picks.  I would expect them to hang on to a guy like Quinnen.  If they think he will be too expensive, they still will be at the point where it makes mroe sense to hang on to him and get the value out of him that season and get a comp pick later.  That hasn't been the case lately because we knew that winning an extra game wasn't going to matter.  Better to get the pick and run.  That should not be the case any more.  No more fire sales.

They have had trouble with Becton and Mims, so they might be moved, but I'm not as sure with Q

I pretty well agree.

This year is a big one for Q. He's only 24 years old. If he balls out because he is finally part of a solid DLine, say 10 sacks as a DT, that's Fletcher Cox caliber performance. Why would you not pay for that. You draft people hoping to get guys capable of that kind of performance. The Jets would be foolish to let him go. He's just the kind of guy they say they are looking for.

If he underachieves or gets "hurt" again, different story. 

My money's on Q.

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He didn’t take the next step that I expected. At the end of his 2nd season, I really thought we had a monster. Now I think we have a really good player. Let’s see if he improves this year.

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Maybe we can see what he can do with a more complete line?

Is it possible he can live up to the draft selection with 2 competent edge rusher, with support inside to take away double teams?  Who is the only lineman to focus on in previous years.  Q and thats it.  

Will he?  No idea, but let's see what he looks like with some support?

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Seems like a lot. Trying to find a good comp and settled on Grady Jarrett who just go 3 years $50M. $20m per seems high but it’s not ridiculous looking at contracts for DTs. Seems like an overpay for Q though. Cant imagine JD going that high.

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30 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Seems like a lot. Trying to find a good comp and settled on Grady Jarrett who just go 3 years $50M. $20m per seems high but it’s not ridiculous looking at contracts for DTs. Seems like an overpay for Q though. Cant imagine JD going that high.

Idk the cap is supposed to jump a lot in the next few years. We’re not paying anyone now. Pay mosley less and give it to quinnen 

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5 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

I think they can find a replacement for much less $.  Do we really want to pay 10.5% of our cap this this guy or  guy like this?  

Further if we let him walk we might be in line for a nice comp pick later on.  

Really surprised JD and Saleh didn't address this in the draft.   TBH, there's probably a better market for trading Q (similar to Leo) than whatever the comp pick would be for letting him walk

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33 minutes ago, GreenFish said:

Seems like a lot. Trying to find a good comp and settled on Grady Jarrett who just go 3 years $50M. $20m per seems high but it’s not ridiculous looking at contracts for DTs. Seems like an overpay for Q though. Cant imagine JD going that high.

Grady Jarrett was turning 29 when he signed his extension.  Williams won't turn 25 until December 21 (Dominator III's birthday).  As @BurntDice points out, the cap is supposed to be taking a big jump.  Basically, what I am saying is that I feel the same as you, but I can certainly see JD going that high.  I couldn't see paying JFM all that money either, but that is just because I always have sticker shock.

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2 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

Really surprised JD and Saleh didn't address this in the draft.   TBH, there's probably a better market for trading Q (similar to Leo) than whatever the comp pick would be for letting him walk

The difference is that when they traded Leonard Williams the Jets were 1-6 and going nowhere.  Leonard Williams was a lame duck they didn't expect back.  He could not provide even a single win of any value to the franchise.  Q has a year left on his deal and then the 5th year option before they even have to think about it.  You can keep cutting coupons or you can squeeze the ******* oranges and get some ******* juice.  It's time to get rolling.

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5 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

I think they can find a replacement for much less $.  Do we really want to pay 10.5% of our cap this this guy or  guy like this?  

Further if we let him walk we might be in line for a nice comp pick later on.  

Trade him to some team ran by suckers for multiple firsts. As you mentioned his production can be replaced for far less than he'd make on his next contract here.

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13 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

The difference is that when they traded Leonard Williams the Jets were 1-6 and going nowhere.  Leonard Williams was a lame duck they didn't expect back.  He could not provide even a single win of any value to the franchise.  Q has a year left on his deal and then the 5th year option before they even have to think about it.  You can keep cutting coupons or you can squeeze the ******* oranges and get some ******* juice.  It's time to get rolling.

That's sort of my point.  The fact that he has another year and a 5th year option year on his rookie deal makes him pretty valuable in a trade. All goes into the extension math. Comes down to how much JD and Saleh value the guy. I'm not sure he's really a difference maker worth top dollar. 

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Drafting interior tackles and expecting them to be Aaron Donald was a bad strategy for this team for a few decades...Q is a good player but unlikely to be a 10 sack a year guy  so it will be interesting if they overpay him or not.

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6 minutes ago, undertow said:

Drafting interior tackles and expecting them to be Aaron Donald was a bad strategy for this team for a few decades...Q is a good player but unlikely to be a 10 sack a year guy  so it will be interesting if they overpay him or not.

I have a rough time thinking the projection is his real value.  They have to be reading into his draft position too much.  

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6 minutes ago, peekskill68 said:

That's sort of my point.  The fact that he has another year and a 5th year option year on his rookie deal makes him pretty valuable in a trade. All goes into the extension math. Comes down to how much JD and Saleh value the guy. I'm not sure he's really a difference maker worth top dollar. 

RIght.  His value is high, but now they are (presumably) actually trying to win games.  That was not the case during from the mid-point of the 2019 season until now.  All that cleaning house sh*t was during that time frame.  Getting a little better play now is probably more important than getting a 2nd instead of a 3rd round comp.  We are buyers now, not sellers. 

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2 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

RIght.  His value is high, but now they are (presumably) actually trying to win games.  That was not the case during from the mid-point of the 2019 season until now.  All that cleaning house sh*t was during that time frame.  Getting a little better play now is probably more important than getting a 2nd instead of a 3rd round comp.  We are buyers now, not sellers. 

It’s true, but 20 million per season is a lot. He will need to unlock his potential to justify that kind of paycheck.  I think he can.  

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3 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

I have a rough time thinking the projection is his real value.  They have to be reading into his draft position too much.  

Larry Ogunjobi signed for 3/$40M this offseason.  He was a 3rd round pick, coming off a 1-year deal.  He is still a FA because he failed his physical, but I firmly believe that Quinnen Williams will sign for more than Larry Ogunjobi.  Think about how much JFM got. 

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20 million per year?  maybe not too high but q is just one player and the jets could get at least 2 B rated players for that much.  the thing too is players rotate in and out quite a bit these days.  is qwill in on every down?

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23 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

It’s true, but 20 million per season is a lot. He will need to unlock his potential to justify that kind of paycheck.  I think he can.  

Kind of the going rate for very good DT (Top 10).  Remember how much Leonard Williams got paid... 

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