Asman : Expectations for a CB picked in top 5

[Dunnie]

 

... "You should have a lot of expectations for Sauce ... he needs to be a multi time pro bowler ... otherwise its a failed pick ... if your taking a guy in the top 5 at that position ... he needs to be a guy we look back on and say he's one of the best corners in the league, and hes a multiple time pro bowler .... that's the expectation........ thats what your saying when you use the 4th overall pick on a CB."

 

-Jake Asman

 

.... Pretty much exactly how I feel ...

 

[Rhg1084]

13 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

 

... "You should have a lot of expectations for Sauce ... he needs to be a multi time pro bowler ... otherwise its a failed pick ... if your taking a guy in the top 5 at that position ... he needs to be a guy we look back on and say he's one of the best corners in the league, and hes a multiple time pro bowler .... that's the expectation........ thats what your saying when you use the 4th overall pick on a CB."

 

-Jake Asman

 

.... Pretty much exactly how I feel ...

 

I just have a feeling a Sauce is a can’t miss prospect. The kid is a stud 

[rangerous]

the 4 pick has got to be a special player.  here's to hoping gardner doesn't become anoth wilson or millener.

[Larz]

Acquisition cost never impacts player performance. 
 

it only impacts expectations and it’s a shame. 
 

 

[Jimmy 2 Times]

Top four has high expectations, but just remember it was a poor draft talent-wise.

Top four of this draft should be considered top 15 in a normal one.

Hopefully he continues his No touchdown streak for a decade, but so long as he’s a good player I’ll be happy. 

[nycdan]

So which position can you draft in the top-5 that you don't have the same expectations for?  This is such a moronic take by someone looking to paint a narrative he can point to a few years from now and say "I WAS RIGHT".  

The data is out there.  Roughly 55% of players drafted 1-10 make at least one pro bowl.

CBs drafted in round 1 make at least one Pro Bowl about 38% of the time.  This is actually one of the lower hit rates by position.  Safeties are just over 50%.  

So painting a picture of 'multiple Pro Bowls or failure' and applying it specifically to a single position/draft range, without that context is honestly a waste of everyone's time.  Did he make the same prediction about every one of the top-10 picks?  If not, then his true colors are showing clear and you just have to say it out loud.

Here's some actual math instead.  The actual stats suggest that if two of our three 1st round picks make at least one Pro Bowl, we have beaten the draft odds. 

 

[The Crusher]

28 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

 

... "You should have a lot of expectations for Sauce ... he needs to be a multi time pro bowler ... otherwise its a failed pick ... if your taking a guy in the top 5 at that position ... he needs to be a guy we look back on and say he's one of the best corners in the league, and hes a multiple time pro bowler .... that's the expectation........ thats what your saying when you use the 4th overall pick on a CB."

 

-Jake Asman

 

.... Pretty much exactly how I feel ...

 

I’m not even worried about it, this will be known as the draft we “ hit the sauce” in. Rejoice Jet fans, we did it! Thank you Joe Douglas, thank you, 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

A lot of hand-wringing about a player who's likely to be good with the potential to be great.

[the Claw]

I think that specifying the position is a little silly here. This draft lacked top end talent. Gardener was one of them so THAT should be where the expectations come from, not because he’s a cb. 
 

Besides, I tend to ignore input from journalists who still haven’t figured out the your/you’re thing.
 

 

[Hal N of Provo]

14 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

A lot of hand-wringing about a player who's likely to be good with the potential to be great.

@Joe W. Namath will have a diagnosis for this lol 

[Scott Dierking]

[Scott Dierking]

55 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

 

... "You should have a lot of expectations for Sauce ... he needs to be a multi time pro bowler ... otherwise its a failed pick ... if your taking a guy in the top 5 at that position ... he needs to be a guy we look back on and say he's one of the best corners in the league, and hes a multiple time pro bowler .... that's the expectation........ thats what your saying when you use the 4th overall pick on a CB."

 

-Jake Asman

 

.... Pretty much exactly how I feel ...

 

Apparently, he has not revisited expectations for our other top 5 picks in a draft

[Irish Jet]

Immediate expectations should be tempered. I expect a decent first year but some rough moments and some costly penalties. It happens, a tough position to adjust to.

Obviously long term he absolutely has to become one of the league's best. You don't pick a CB that high to become a solid starter. 

[slats]

1 hour ago, Dunnie said:

 

... "You should have a lot of expectations for Sauce ... he needs to be a multi time pro bowler ... otherwise its a failed pick ... if your taking a guy in the top 5 at that position ... he needs to be a guy we look back on and say he's one of the best corners in the league, and hes a multiple time pro bowler .... that's the expectation........ thats what your saying when you use the 4th overall pick on a CB."

 

-Jake Asman

 

.... Pretty much exactly how I feel ...

 

This is dumb. This is a constant problem around here, the lack of context. This was a weak draft up top. The Jets took a CB #4 because they (correctly!) determined that they absolutely did not need an OT there, and they didn’t like the third Edge on the board. It’s that simple. No one was trading up to #4 because the QB class was perceived to be garbage, so they had to take someone. They could’ve taken the WR first but, in retrospect, it looks like they took them in the right order (no way Sauce lasts to #10). 

[Sammybighead]

Why is this in relation to a CB? Any player picked top 5 should be a multi-time probowler/all pro or its a failed pick.  

So an average DT top 5 is acceptable? Lol idiotic 

[mrcoops]

Player picked in top 5 should be very good player - more news at eleven.

[UntouchableCrew]

I mean I think 2022 should have fairly tempered expectations -- CB is not an easy position to make the transition to the NFL level at.

But obviously you are hopeful that any player at any position picked in the top 4 will be a perennial Pro Bowler and one of the best in the league at their position. Not exactly a controversial take.

[GreenFish]

This makes it sound like CB is not a premium position.

Premium positions per Joe Douglas and practically the entire analytics community: QB, WR, CB, Edge, OT

That’s basically the expectation of any Non-QB position.

[AFJF]

2 hours ago, Dunnie said:

 

... "You should have a lot of expectations for Sauce ... he needs to be a multi time pro bowler ... otherwise its a failed pick ... if your taking a guy in the top 5 at that position ... he needs to be a guy we look back on and say he's one of the best corners in the league, and hes a multiple time pro bowler .... that's the expectation........ thats what your saying when you use the 4th overall pick on a CB."

 

-Jake Asman

 

.... Pretty much exactly how I feel ...

 

And if it's a Leo type situation where he falls short of expectations but 29 other guys taken in the first round are trash.  Still a bad pick?  You can only draft who's there.

[Barry McCockinner]

Did Jake Assman take lessons from Manish Mehta or Rich Cimini on how to get clicks? We do expect our high first round pick to be good but F this guy and his click bait headlines.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

2 hours ago, Dunnie said:

 

... "You should have a lot of expectations for Sauce ... he needs to be a multi time pro bowler ... otherwise its a failed pick ... if your taking a guy in the top 5 at that position ... he needs to be a guy we look back on and say he's one of the best corners in the league, and hes a multiple time pro bowler .... that's the expectation........ thats what your saying when you use the 4th overall pick on a CB."

 

-Jake Asman

 

.... Pretty much exactly how I feel ...

 

I mean ok but you could say this about any position when you’re picking top-5

it’s not as if when you draft a QB top 5 and he’s a mid-level starter, you’re happy

and judging player quality / impact based on pro bowl selections is stupid 

obviously anybody you take that high you draft with the expectation he can be a big-time difference maker

[Jet Nut]

2 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

Obviously long term he absolutely has to become one of the league's best. You don't pick a CB that high to become a solid starter. 

So if he becomes the 4th best player in the draft and none of them are one of the leagues best what do you say?

[Dunnie]

So if he becomes the 4th best player in the draft and none of them are one of the leagues best what do you say?

Totally agree with what you are saying...

I'm also saying that its not unreasonable to expect sky high performance from a CB picked at 4.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

Whatever the bar is, I’m confident Sauce can clear it

Lowkey I think the Jets might already have one of the better CB groups in the league 

The (slot CB) MC hype has been a bit hard to take at times though.  In context, he certainly looks like a good pick but the way fans (and the beat writers in front of Saleh) fawn about him, you would think he was like already a perennial 1st team all pro.

your premium picks have to hit obviously, but how you really win the draft is with those day 2 and day 3 picks blowing up

Like the Rams drafting Kupp (on top of getting Donald top-10), Steelers with AB in round 6

[nycdan]

3 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

Whatever the bar is, I’m confident Sauce can clear it

Lowkey I think the Jets might already have one of the better CB groups in the league 

The (slot CB) MC hype has been a bit hard to take at times though.  In context, he certainly looks like a good pick but the way fans (and the beat writers in front of Saleh) fawn about him, you would think he was like already a perennial 1st team all pro.

your premium picks have to hit obviously, but how you really win the draft is with those day 2 and day 3 picks blowing up

Like the Rams drafting Kupp (on top of getting Donald top-10), Steelers with AB in round 6

Donald was actually the 13th pick.  That was a fun draft for us when we took Jace Amaro in the 2nd round ahead of Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, and Jarvis Landry.  But then BUF drafted Sammy Watkins ahead of Mike Evans and OBJ.  The draft is what it is... a crapshoot.

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

45 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Donald was actually the 13th pick.  That was a fun draft for us when we took Jace Amaro in the 2nd round ahead of Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, and Jarvis Landry.  But then BUF drafted Sammy Watkins ahead of Mike Evans and OBJ.  The draft is what it is... a crapshoot.

Cool.  #13 sounds right.  I didn’t remember exactly but thought it was around the 10th pick and didn’t feel like checking.

I know a lot of fans wanted Davante Adams.

Watkins goes to show how deceiving appearances can be when it comes to college WRs.  That guy looked unstoppable in his final appearance (Orange bowl?).

[David Harris]

Sure, but not really.  I expect that as well from Sauce, but considering the number of busts in the top 10 or anywhere, an above average starter for 8 years is acceptable in the grand scheme.  It's not binary, boom or bust.

 

QW is a disappointment for his draft position, even still his next contract may average $18-20 mill.

[undertow]

Hot take our 4th pick must be good!

[Hael]

I don't even remember the last time a CB was 'can't miss'.  Patrick Peterson maybe?

Sauce is a solid pick, but he is definitely not 'can't miss' and he certainly has some issues.  I expect him to struggle a bit early on, but then maybe have some great games against his favorable physical matchups (eg big receivers).  As the year goes on, I expect him to refine his ability to read routes, and then hopefully he can take the next step.

[peebag]

At this point, I just hope he gets a 2nd contract with the Jets.

[Joe W. Namath]

5 hours ago, Scott Dierking said:

Apparently, he has not revisited expectations for our other top 5 picks in a draft

Actually just listened to a podcast w/ a numbers crunching guy who after tallying up all the data, thinks sauce was a major reach.

He thinks he will still be a good player but hes no jalen ramsey, derrelle revis, charles woodson etc.

In short, a top 5 cb with sauces height, weight, measures les, college production etc, has never been a great player.

But back as Assman, what does the data say?  For example, over the last 10 years, how many top 5 picks were multiple pro bowlers?

I bet the percentages arent great.

 

[Morrissey]

this guy needs a stage name like Jon Stewart or Larry King. There will never be a thread with any content from this dude without at least one person referencing ASS MAN

[#27TheDominator]

15 minutes ago, Morrissey said:

this guy needs a stage name like Jon Stewart or Larry King. There will never be a thread with any content from this dude without at least one person referencing ASS MAN

I like to think that if he changed his name JN is informed enough to know and still reference ASS MAN at least once in each thread.

[Joe W. Namath]

You have to have more facts then just a blanket stayement saying a top 5 pick needs to be a multiple pro bowler or its a epic failure.

For example, lets say over the last 10 years, 10% of top 5 picks have been multiple pro bowlers.  Then no, its not an epic fail if saice isnt a multiple pro bowl cause it only happens 10% of the time.

Assman just making blanket statements with to context is silly.

[Lupz27]

7 hours ago, Dunnie said:

 

... "You should have a lot of expectations for Sauce ... he needs to be a multi time pro bowler ... otherwise its a failed pick ... if your taking a guy in the top 5 at that position ... he needs to be a guy we look back on and say he's one of the best corners in the league, and hes a multiple time pro bowler .... that's the expectation........ thats what your saying when you use the 4th overall pick on a CB."

 

-Jake Asman

 

.... Pretty much exactly how I feel ...

 

I literally hope he makes zero pro bowls.