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PFF: Highest % of passes dropped by his receivers


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47 minutes ago, Warfish said:

https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

Dropped Passes by Team.

Jets were tied for 4th worst, with 25 total.

Max was 33 (Chargers).  Fewest was 9 (Seahawks).

Avg. for all NFL teams was 19.6 drops.

The variance for the Jets QB's (Zach, White and Flacco) was 5.4 more drops than League Average over the 17 game season.

To give a frame of reference, the Jets attempted 603 passes in 2021.

We completed 357.  For a team Comp. % of 59.2%.

Had the Jets had the average # of drops for 2021, our Comp. % would have been 60.0%.

 

 

Context!!

Of course many will argue that those drops prevented the offense from continuing possessions… which if continued, would have allowed the QB to complete more passes with a higher completion percentage than they did in the rest of a season’s worth of sample size (ie total passes completed).

We had “way” more drops than average but it’s hard to imagine Zach’s completion percentage or expected completion percentage being dramatically different.

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1 hour ago, jNYC1 said:

Context!!

Of course many will argue that those drops prevented the offense from continuing possessions… which if continued, would have allowed the QB to complete more passes with a higher completion percentage than they did in the rest of a season’s worth of sample size (ie total passes completed).

We had “way” more drops than average but it’s hard to imagine Zach’s completion percentage or expected completion percentage being dramatically different.

To give a frame of reference, the Jets attempted 603 passes in 2021.

We completed 357.  For a team Comp. % of 59.2%.

Had the Jets had the average # of drops for 2021, our comp. % would have been 60.0%.

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2 hours ago, Larz said:

To give a frame of reference, the Jets attempted 603 passes in 2021.

We completed 357.  For a team Comp. % of 59.2%.

Had the Jets had the average # of drops for 2021, our comp. % would have been 60.0%.

Completely agree.  IMHO - The drops narrative is over blown… to provide some with comfort that Zach actually played better than he actually did in 2021, and his teammates let him down.

More often, Zach let his skill positions down.  The Elijah stats are a great example…. Even when adjusting for drops, Zach completion percentage was putrid.

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Just checked PFF adjusted completion percentage metric. 

  • Zach ranked 35th out of 39 QBs (of QBs that had at least 20% of dropbacks)
  • Zach ranked 30th out of 30 QBs (of QBs that had at least 50% of dropbacks)

For reference:

Adjusted completion percentage takes into account factors outside of the quarterback's control in terms of completing passes. It accounts for dropped passes, passes thrown away, spiked balls, passes batted at the line of scrimmage and those passes in which a quarterback was hit as he threw

After accounting for drops (and other factors), Zach was still near the bottom in adjusted completion percentage.

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I’ll add that I believe Zach will be much more accurate in 2022.

Drops do not explain Zach’s poor completion percentage and poor performance in 2021.  

Obviously drops didn’t help, but when drops are accounted for, Zach still had one of lowest completion percentages in the league.

Drops narrative is overblown but will be great if we return to average or better in this category.

 

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It doesn't help when you watch the season drop tape compilation and realize that a good chunk of that came from ZW rifling balls at 60 mph to wide open receivers 6 feet away.  I remember that Favre used to have this issue with a lot of his receivers, and he was definitely guilty of some of the same things.

To be fair, its not all on ZW.  Corey Davis in particular had a bad case of not coming down with the ball and there were a number of bad game altering drops last season that they simply have to get better on.

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6 hours ago, Warfish said:

https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

Dropped Passes by Team.

Jets were tied for 4th worst, with 25 total.

Max was 33 (Chargers).  Fewest was 9 (Seahawks).

Avg. for all NFL teams was 19.6 drops.

The variance for the Jets QB's (Zach, White and Flacco) was 5.4 more drops than League Average over the 17 game season.

To give a frame of reference, the Jets attempted 603 passes in 2021.

We completed 357.  For a team Comp. % of 59.2%.

Had the Jets had the average # of drops for 2021, our Comp. % would have been 60.0%.

 

 

I think the PFF post is referring to QB’s  alone and not team drops.  
either way, your points are valid.  
 

 

Semper Fi 

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1 hour ago, thebuzzardman said:

Damn. This Zach guy played like a rookie!

He definitely played like a rookie.  Unfortunately, he played like a bad rookie...

I think it will get better but he played poorly as rookie QB (several of the touted rookie QBs had abysmal seasons so he's not alone...)

Reminds me of Darnold, Rosen, Baker.  Baker played the best but Darnold and Rosen played poorly as Top 15 picks. 

The tough thing is that in the last 10 years, most rookie QB starters who turned out to be FQBs or Average QBs, actually played better as rookies than Darnold or Zach... Josh Allen is the one exception... (and potentially Goff).  Prescott, Watson, Herbert, Burrow (terrible line, no Chase), Murray (terrible AZ team), Newton, Luck...

 

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Forget all the analytics and the rest of the statistics I just go by what my eyes tell me and anyone should be able to see that Zach was abysmal save for a few plays here and there in his starts prior to injury. When he came back he showed improvement even with less than stellar receivers. With more talent on the offensive side all we can do is hope that Zach continues improving which I think he will 

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I seen some of the drops PFF were attributing to us last year. That wild miss in the end zone against Philly were Zach needlessly threw it 2 yards behind Moore was classified as a drop because he managed to get a hand to it.

He leads this stat for a reason. 

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3 hours ago, CSNY said:

Forget all the analytics and the rest of the statistics I just go by what my eyes tell me and anyone should be able to see that Zach was abysmal save for a few plays here and there in his starts prior to injury. When he came back he showed improvement even with less than stellar receivers. With more talent on the offensive side all we can do is hope that Zach continues improving which I think he will 

It was brutal at times, but there definitely improvement.  I loved that he cut the picks

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5 hours ago, jNYC1 said:

He definitely played like a rookie.  Unfortunately, he played like a bad rookie...

I think it will get better but he played poorly as rookie QB (several of the touted rookie QBs had abysmal seasons so he's not alone...)

Reminds me of Darnold, Rosen, Baker.  Baker played the best but Darnold and Rosen played poorly as Top 15 picks. 

The tough thing is that in the last 10 years, most rookie QB starters who turned out to be FQBs or Average QBs, actually played better as rookies than Darnold or Zach... Josh Allen is the one exception... (and potentially Goff).  Prescott, Watson, Herbert, Burrow (terrible line, no Chase), Murray (terrible AZ team), Newton, Luck...

 

Yup. He sucks. Never will improve, not one bit. Worst pick ever.  Jets need to tank the season for a franchise QB. Shame they drafted a few decent guys who will hurt draft position. Hopefully Zach will save them and lead them to all the losses. 

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13 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

I seen some of the drops PFF were attributing to us last year. That wild miss in the end zone against Philly were Zach needlessly threw it 2 yards behind Moore was classified as a drop because he managed to get a hand to it.

He leads this stat for a reason. 

They also did not count some that I think were drops a good receiver should make.  I watched lots of Playoff games and guys were making all sorts of plays and catches  we did not see all year.  

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