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42 minutes ago, slats said:

Not sure if the WR room is upgraded or not yet. I certainly hope so, but they lost Crowder and Cole and gained a rookie. Don’t get me wrong, I’m pretty psyched about GW, but it remains to be seen if he’s an upgrade this season. 
 

I can see that point. My thought process is

1. Berrios has shown he can contribute as WR and gadget player which we did not really take advantage of till mid season or later

2.  It is the second year for Moore who can make a big jump

3.  Second year in same system (which is among the most complex for WR) for all of them

4. We added Garrett Wilson who is a perfect fit for the offensive scheme

5. Our TEs are actually a threat which means they need to at least account for them which opens up things a bit for the WR group

6. There is a possibility Mims shows to be the guy that had flashes his rookie year. I still believe he had something way more serious than Covid/flu or whatever the cover story is. If Mims can be the guy we thought he was when drafted we would have an elite WR corps. Not counting on this but just from a physical standpoint seeing Mims this offseason he is a completely different player physically.

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23 minutes ago, slats said:

What’s your expectation?

Me?  The guy who didn't want to draft Zach and doesn't really have any faith that he is or will be a Franchise QB?

I hear over and over he's a special, elite Franchise QB that can do things no one else can, so I expect him to produce like a typical Franchise QB.

In truth, I'd be happily surprised if he plays all 17 games, clears 3,500 passing yards, or 60% Comp Rate, or anything close to a 2:1 TD:INT ratio, much less the 3:1 you really want to see from a Franchise QB. 

14 games played, 3,100 yards, 58%, 19 TD:13 INT is about my level of Zach expectations.

And no, I don't think it'll be because "they're trying to focus on the rush more".

23 minutes ago, slats said:

I see you criticizing the dreaded homers

They're not "dreaded" at all.  They're just misguided in my view.

IMO they just are unable to split objective analysis from their "fanaticism", and it leads to alot of cognitive dissonance and mutually exclusive postings in their opinions.

23 minutes ago, slats said:

, but I’m not seeing any predictions from you.

I always give my predictions, usually in the various annual "Predict our Record" threads.

See, I haven't really given it a ton of thought as yet.....because I'm not trying to make excuses in June for anyone.  

If you want to start a "Predict their Record" thread, and list the schedule, I'll be happy to give it some thought.  

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55 minutes ago, slats said:

Not sure if the WR room is upgraded or not yet. I certainly hope so, but they lost Crowder and Cole and gained a rookie. Don’t get me wrong, I’m pretty psyched about GW, but it remains to be seen if he’s an upgrade this season. 

Mims really burned you.

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3 hours ago, DoubleDecker said:

It very well may be possible that the 2022-2023 Jets are a better team, but not be much better record wise than last year.  Looking at the schedule, I can definitely see our team producing a much more watchable/talented product on the field, but falling out of the playoffs within the 7-8 win range.

I think what people need to understand is that the Jets of 2021 were so bad that they were not on the cusp of respectability.  So, getting better doesn't automatically make them a playoff team.  

Now, if the Jets were let's say a 7-10 team last year, and a couple of games could of gone either way, and the Jets could have just as easily been 9-8 or 6-11, then getting better this year would warrant discussions of the playoffs and possibly a 11-5 team or something along those lines.

The Jets will be better this year, but the big question is "How much bette?"

For me, this Jets team could be much, much better if Zach takes a big leap forward, and the guys we drafted last year to be linebackers play up to hopes and expectations, so as to be a respectable run stuffing team.  I have a hard time thinking that Zach will be much, much better, and therefore, I see the Jets winning 7 or 8 games.

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49 minutes ago, Supersonic said:

How did Josh Allen look in his rookie season?  You haven't even seen Garrett Wilson play in the NFL yet.  The Jets didn't have any tight ends last season.  Zach was usually running for his life.

This coming season:  SECOND year QB, THREE viable TE's, TWO very good RB's, THREE dangerous WR's.  A capable OL.  Yeah, I don't see it either.

 

The comparison was to the 2020 -> 2021 Superbowl Bengals. What are you talking about?

I love the Wilson pick but Chase was on a different level as a prospect.

 

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I don't get the premise of the thread?  The Jets will be better, but it won't show in their record, but they are going to win twice as many games?  WTF?  I get the whole they can be competitive without being a playoff team, but they can't win 4 games again.

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4 hours ago, DoubleDecker said:

It very well may be possible that the 2022-2023 Jets are a better team, but not be much better record wise than last year.  Looking at the schedule, I can definitely see our team producing a much more watchable/talented product on the field, but falling out of the playoffs within the 7-8 win range.

They win the AFCE outright at least 12 wins

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6 hours ago, DoubleDecker said:

It very well may be possible that the 2022-2023 Jets are a better team, but not be much better record wise than last year.  Looking at the schedule, I can definitely see our team producing a much more watchable/talented product on the field, but falling out of the playoffs within the 7-8 win range.

but 7-8 wins would be 75% or 100% improvement

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I'm OK with this as long as we see some big strides in point differential.  The Jets were -194 in point differential last season, 2nd worst in the league.  Almost as bad as Jacksonville (-204) and worse than the Texans (-172), Giants (-158) and Lions (-142).

There ought to at least be 7 or so teams worse than us in the point differential category for me to be thinking this team is making real progress.

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6 hours ago, DoubleDecker said:

It very well may be possible that the 2022-2023 Jets are a better team, but not be much better record wise than last year.  Looking at the schedule, I can definitely see our team producing a much more watchable/talented product on the field, but falling out of the playoffs within the 7-8 win range.

That is if Zach plays well. I an getting concerned with all the talk of his bad accuracy.  I read one asst  coach said he can't hit a plate with a fork. 

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

I hear over and over he's a special, elite Franchise QB that can do things no one else can, so I expect him to produce like a typical Franchise QB.

Are you hearing this here? Or in the national media? It’s funny, because when I log in here I brace for the negativity. I’d list maybe @johnnysd and @FidelioJet as probably the two guys who are the most bullish on Zach, most of the rest of those of us not wallowing in the pits of despair seem to be more in the wait and see mode. He’s smart, he’s talented, he’s athletic, and he needs to put it together. What I see here is mostly guys like @Fantasy Island spamming every thread with some version of, “Zach sucks.” Or you, reminding us whenever you feel the need that he was statistically the worst QB in the league last year. I guess it’s all about perspective.

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

14 games played, 3,100 yards, 58%, 19 TD:13 INT is about my level of Zach expectations.

Lol, so yeah, I do think that maybe the “homers” are probably a little more optimistic than this. So there goes that theory that they’re harder on the guy than the pessimists. While I’m not nearly as hung up on numbers as you are, these would be disappointing. Particularly the comp%, which I’m hoping creeps into the low 60s. 

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

Mims really burned you.

Burned? No. I wanted Mims, but I’ve never pretended to be an expert in talent evaluation. The man is a physical specimen, and I’m still holding out hope that he’ll break out. I expect him to make the team and contribute this year. How much? I have no idea. I’m very excited about Garrett Wilson, the first first round WR this team has drafted since Santana Moss but, also, I heard a lot of talk about Elijah Moore being a better prospect. Strength of this particular draft, and so forth. It’s not like Ohio State is a WR powerhouse. Jets took Devin Smith early in the second round, and he did nothing. Their first rounders include the likes of Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Michael Jenkins, Ted Ginn Jr., etc. Santonio Holmes was probably the best of the bunch, and also a nut job. I always hope for the best, my glass remains perpetually half full, but I’ve been following the NFL long enough not to expect a rookie WR to hit the ground running. 

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18 minutes ago, More Cowbell said:

That is if Zach plays well. I an getting concerned with all the talk of his bad accuracy.  I read one asst  coach said he can't hit a plate with a fork. 

Where did you read this?

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I know most of you are too scarred to realize the difference this team will be. It's ok... You will see, this team is going to be a contender... And will win the AFCE. 

You don't have to believe... Time will prove me right. And when it starts happening all the sofa QBs will come out of the woodwork saying how they knew this would happen and how the sports talk radio personalities were wrong... 

Much of you are too beat up over the years waiting for the reason on why this team won't compete so you won't be disappointed... They Are already starting to talk about the talent of afc is too great... Please these are lame excuses... This is a Rex type surprise year... Before you know it they will be in the championship. 

This is the year... If they don't make it far into the playoffs it's a failure... Period... None of this Zach needs time... No...sanchez got them there and he was worse... 

They either are good enough to win or get a new qb. 

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39 minutes ago, slats said:

Are you hearing this here? Or in the national media? It’s funny, because when I log in here I brace for the negativity. I’d list maybe @johnnysd and @FidelioJet as probably the two guys who are the most bullish on Zach, most of the rest of those of us not wallowing in the pits of despair seem to be more in the wait and see mode. He’s smart, he’s talented, he’s athletic, and he needs to put it together. What I see here is mostly guys like @Fantasy Island spamming every thread with some version of, “Zach sucks.” Or you, reminding us whenever you feel the need that he was statistically the worst QB in the league last year. I guess it’s all about perspective.

Lol, so yeah, I do think that maybe the “homers” are probably a little more optimistic than this. So there goes that theory that they’re harder on the guy than the pessimists. While I’m not nearly as hung up on numbers as you are, these would be disappointing. Particularly the comp%, which I’m hoping creeps into the low 60s. 

Burned? No. I wanted Mims, but I’ve never pretended to be an expert in talent evaluation. The man is a physical specimen, and I’m still holding out hope that he’ll break out. I expect him to make the team and contribute this year. How much? I have no idea. I’m very excited about Garrett Wilson, the first first round WR this team has drafted since Santana Moss but, also, I heard a lot of talk about Elijah Moore being a better prospect. Strength of this particular draft, and so forth. It’s not like Ohio State is a WR powerhouse. Jets took Devin Smith early in the second round, and he did nothing. Their first rounders include the likes of Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Michael Jenkins, Ted Ginn Jr., etc. Santonio Holmes was probably the best of the bunch, and also a nut job. I always hope for the best, my glass remains perpetually half full, but I’ve been following the NFL long enough not to expect a rookie WR to hit the ground running. 

I am certainly bullish on Zach - but not blind.  

His accuracy issues were real and worrisome.   I do believe they mostly stemmed from his footwork and timing,  he far too often threw behind his receivers.  That NEEDS to be fixed.  I really do believe that was more a function of timing than "bad throws/accuracy" (although ultimately it's the same thing)

From what I saw toward the end of last year and what I've read and seen from professionals breaking down film - he came a long way in solving that problem.  

I don't expect him to come out and look like an all-pro - but would be shocked if he ended up with less than 3,500 yards.  I would consider that a disappointing season.

 

EDIT:  Adding to my post - I wanted to show this video - which is one I referenced above.  Someone else posted it on this board - but I can't find it (sorry to whoever posted it for not recognizing you)

This guys isn't a ZW homer - and shows, what seems to be his biggest issue - and then shows how it got better late.  It's 10:00 minutes but I think worth the watch.

 

 

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6 hours ago, slimjasi said:

8 wins is a reasonable goal and would constitute a significant step in the right direction (doubling last season's win total, probably "in the hunt" to start December). 

Our schedule is brutal...  any wins over say 6-7 will be due to better play by Zach, coaching and game plan in my view.

I can see 10 wins but I expect 6-8.

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7 hours ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I think your win range is pretty close to what most people are expecting here.

It’s ridiculous that the organization has sunk to such lows that fans are okay with 7 or 8 wins.

Teams around the NFL rebuild in 1 or 2 years.

Not the Jets! We need a whole 5 year friggin plan.

Babies are born, go through their toddler years and then enter kindergarten before our rebuilding plan is expected to show fruit. Think about how crazy that is.

- Bills draft Josh Allen and they’re in the playoffs the next season 

- Bengals draft Burrow and they’re in the playoffs the next season

- Seahawks draft Wilson and they’re in the Super Bowl the next season

Meanwhile the Jets need a whole kindergardner to figure out what they got.

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23 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

Our schedule is brutal...  any wins over say 6-7 will be due to better play by Zach, coaching and game plan in my view.

I can see 10 wins but I expect 6-8.

12 minimum

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58 minutes ago, Facts said:

It’s ridiculous that the organization has sunk to such lows that fans are okay with 7 or 8 wins.

Teams around the NFL rebuild in 1 or 2 years.

Not the Jets! We need a whole 5 year friggin plan.

Babies are born, go through their toddler years and then enter kindergarten before our rebuilding plan is expected to show fruit. Think about how crazy that is.

- Bills draft Josh Allen and they’re in the playoffs the next season 

- Bengals draft Burrow and they’re in the playoffs the next season

- Seahawks draft Wilson and they’re in the Super Bowl the next season

Meanwhile the Jets need a whole kindergardner to figure out what they got.

I totally agree in spirit. So many Jets fans act like 2009-2010 was a SB and they talk about it as if Rex were  a SB coach. They are happy with 10 wins.  Our drafts have literally sucked from 2012 to 2018 and our 2020 draft is a BUST.  So we are devoid of any talent. For that reason, a good 2022 draft alone may not be enough.  Also, all those you mentioned had a top tier QB.

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3 hours ago, slats said:

Are you hearing this here? Or in the national media? It’s funny, because when I log in here I brace for the negativity. I’d list maybe @johnnysd and @FidelioJet as probably the two guys who are the most bullish on Zach, most of the rest of those of us not wallowing in the pits of despair seem to be more in the wait and see mode. He’s smart, he’s talented, he’s athletic, and he needs to put it together. What I see here is mostly guys like @Fantasy Island spamming every thread with some version of, “Zach sucks.” Or you, reminding us whenever you feel the need that he was statistically the worst QB in the league last year. I guess it’s all about perspective.

Yes, that's likely an accurate observation.

3 hours ago, slats said:
Quote

14 games played, 3,100 yards, 58%, 19 TD:13 INT is about my level of Zach expectations.

Lol, so yeah, I do think that maybe the “homers” are probably a little more optimistic than this. So there goes that theory that they’re harder on the guy than the pessimists. While I’m not nearly as hung up on numbers as you are, these would be disappointing. Particularly the comp%, which I’m hoping creeps into the low 60s. 

Make no mistake my friend, I desperately want to be wrong.  I always want to be wrong when I'm pessimistic about a young Jets talent.

No one will be happier than me if he blazes out a 63%, 3,800 yard, 28:12 type season.  The kind of season that gives you real, demonstrable hope he could be the real deal.

3 hours ago, slats said:

Burned? No. I wanted Mims, but I’ve never pretended to be an expert in talent evaluation.

You've just seemed more reserved about prospects that you used to be pre-Mims.  Again, perhaps "all about perspective".

3 hours ago, slats said:

The man is a physical specimen, and I’m still holding out hope that he’ll break out. I expect him to make the team and contribute this year. How much? I have no idea.

Me too.

3 hours ago, slats said:

I’m very excited about Garrett Wilson

Me too.  And Breece Hall too.

3 hours ago, slats said:

I always hope for the best, my glass remains perpetually half full, but I’ve been following the NFL long enough not to expect a rookie WR to hit the ground running. 

Fair.  Still, your glass is regularly more full than mine.

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10 hours ago, DoubleDecker said:

It very well may be possible that the 2022-2023 Jets are a better team, but not be much better record wise than last year.  Looking at the schedule, I can definitely see our team producing a much more watchable/talented product on the field, but falling out of the playoffs within the 7-8 win range.

Over/Under is 5.5 wins. Time to place every cent I've lost on the Jets over the last 2 decades and break even. Taking the over, 15K. 

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10 hours ago, DoubleDecker said:

It very well may be possible that the 2022-2023 Jets are a better team, but not be much better record wise than last year.  Looking at the schedule, I can definitely see our team producing a much more watchable/talented product on the field, but falling out of the playoffs within the 7-8 win range.

I’ll take it. Don’t forget the fries 🍟 

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I agree, there really isn’t that much of a reason why this team can’t win 7-9 games with improved talent and a year of learning for the coaching staff/players. However, I think the eye ball test should play a key role in this one. I think we will know as fans how to evaluate the season when we watch the games. I know you are what your record says you are, but not all 7 win teams are equal IMO. The gase rookie year they won 7 games, but I thought that season was a disaster. This team can win 6 games and if we see really good things from ZW, the younger players, and close games against tough opponents. I will feel better than if they scrape together some ugly wins, ZW looking terrible and the jets claw to 7-10. 

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3 hours ago, Facts said:

It’s ridiculous that the organization has sunk to such lows that fans are okay with 7 or 8 wins.

Teams around the NFL rebuild in 1 or 2 years.

Not the Jets! We need a whole 5 year friggin plan.

Babies are born, go through their toddler years and then enter kindergarten before our rebuilding plan is expected to show fruit. Think about how crazy that is.

- Bills draft Josh Allen and they’re in the playoffs the next season 

- Bengals draft Burrow and they’re in the playoffs the next season

- Seahawks draft Wilson and they’re in the Super Bowl the next season

Meanwhile the Jets need a whole kindergardner to figure out what they got.

5 years is fair. Just goes to show how bad a GM Macc was and the absolute mess he left behind. Never built up the OL, handed the reigns over to (YUK) Geno Smith, overpaid for Fitz, terrible draft picks, etc etc etc. JD is heading in the right direction. He’s totally revamped this team with youthful talent. Made some good FA signings, some outstanding trades and his drafts have steadily improved. Got no problem with developing a young team because in a few years…..they’ll be ready to rock n roll. 

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4 hours ago, southparkcpa said:

Our schedule is brutal...  any wins over say 6-7 will be due to better play by Zach, coaching and game plan in my view.

I can see 10 wins but I expect 6-8.

We play the AFC West next year. Are we going to do the same dance then?

At some point the schedule has to stop being used as an excuse to punt away a season. When you think about it, it’s silly to even consider it. Our schedule is the easiest of the AFC East teams. Below this is what will determine our improvement…

1. Let’s start by winning at least half the games within our division. We’ll never contend if we can’t do that.
2. Our division rivals will be facing the same AFC North teams we are, do as well as they do against them.
3. Finally, the rest of our schedule is that of a 4th place team. That makes it easier than what the Bills, Dolphins and Patriots face. Let’s take advantage of that.

 

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