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Thank you Joe Douglas! Thank you!


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4 hours ago, jgb said:

The problem with this approach is it never leads to any conclusions. Good QB? Maybe it’s his surroundings. Bad QB? Same thing. GMs don’t have a way to evaluate players under laboratory conditions with all variables controlled and nor do we.

My simple evaluation model has been pretty durn accurate — good football players play good football. Yes, it missed the Josh Allen turnaround but screamed “move on” for dozens of failed QBs over the years. If you judge any model by it’s failings, they all fail. I’ll stick with it until someone demonstrates a more accurate one.

No problem; Moholmes is a great QB. It doesn't necessarily mean that he would have been great or even good. Of course we don't know and we can only go by what happened. Personally, I can't understand people thinking that no matter where a QB lands, he is going to turn out the same.

Agree to disagree.

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1 hour ago, bostonmajet said:

No problem; Moholmes is a great QB. It doesn't necessarily mean that he would have been great or even good. Of course we don't know and we can only go by what happened. Personally, I can't understand people thinking that no matter where a QB lands, he is going to turn out the same.

Agree to disagree.

One of the more blatant reductio ad absurdi I've seen in quite some time.

 

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2 hours ago, bostonmajet said:

No problem; Moholmes is a great QB. It doesn't necessarily mean that he would have been great or even good. Of course we don't know and we can only go by what happened. Personally, I can't understand people thinking that no matter where a QB lands, he is going to turn out the same.

Agree to disagree.

No, because you're objectively and quantifiably wrong on this one.

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3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Are you attempting to pin Mosley on Douglas now?

Lawson missed his only season here with a fluke injury. Not productive, of course, but it's not the same as someone who plays but plays badly and further cost the team multiple 1st rounders for the privilege.

Davis also with the injuries, but it could've been worse, e.g. Golladay, whose cap # is just north of $21MM this year (and again next year), who put up about the same yards, and no TDs, in 5 more starts / 50% more snaps. 

JFM is fine; not an extension I'd have handed out, let alone at his peak value following a couple really good weeks. Weeks/months earlier or later would've been far less. He did the same thing with Ryan Griffin in '19, and waited too long on Berrios as well, which probably doubled his contract extension cost.

Given enough time, GMs all make signings they liked and signings they regretted, but Adams was an all-time great trade.

 

Yes to all of this.  And I'll never fault a GM for spending a little extra to try to find a WR1 or EDGE guy.  None of those were massive over-spends at the time. 

That was not the case for an ILB like Mosley.  EVERYONE recognized that as a massive over-spend, even the people who loved the player.

And Lawson will work out in the end, too.

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10 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No, because you're objectively and quantifiably wrong on this one.

LOL - so, no point drafting or building a team; no point surrounding a QB with talent; no point finding a good coach/qb coach. If you are good you are good and if you are not you are not - LOL.

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On 6/20/2022 at 8:30 AM, jgb said:

Shows the rarity of bad QBs suddenly turning it around. Why pony up 3 firsts (plus) for a FQB when you can just wait a year or two for any stiff to become Josh Allen v2.0?

And the Browns were around middle of the pack in terms of QB play and they still ponied in spite of the off the field stuff. Such is the importance and difficulty of finding a FQB.

If our current QB fails Jets need to try a multi-prong approach. No more drafting a “QB of the future” every three years and then “protect his confidence” by surrounding him with trash as “competition.” I want a drafted rookie and a vet FA with upside while also trying to swing for fences on a Matt Stafford/Russ Wilson. All of these can — and should — be pursued in parallel.

Any stiff doesn’t become Josh allen

And I don’t thing the Browns make this deal if it’s left to the football people.  I think Haslam made or pushed for this deal.  Because he’s Haslam.  

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9 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Any stiff doesn’t become Josh allen

The trick of course is knowing who the stiffs are and who the Josh Allen is before you see which becomes the Josh Allen (which happens about once a decade). This is now the 4th dude in a row I’ve heard the same line of reasoning: “How do WE KNOW you can’t become X, Y, or Z?” Well we can’t know, but we can approximate the likelihood and it ain’t good.

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3 minutes ago, jgb said:

The tricks of course is knowing who the stiffs are and who the Josh Allen is until you see which becomes the Josh Allen (which happens about once a decade). This is now the 4th dude in a row I’ve heard the same line of reasoning: “How do WE KNOW you can’t become X, Y, or Z?” Well we can’t know, but we can approximate the likelihood and it ain’t good.

Josh Allen is really surprising. I thought he looked bad. You knew he had the arm strength and size. It was clear he was athletic and he could run. But damn his accuracy was terrible. Seems like the hardest thing to fix and they made it look easy.

Maybe it was his offensive coordinator and now that he is gone it will all revert back to Josh Allen 1.0 and he will be bad. One can dream!

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2 minutes ago, Maxman said:

Josh Allen is really surprising. I thought he looked bad. You knew he had the arm strength and size. It was clear he was athletic and he could run. But damn his accuracy was terrible. Seems like the hardest thing to fix and they made it look easy.

Maybe it was his offensive coordinator and now that he is gone it will all revert back to Josh Allen 1.0 and he will be bad. One can dream!

I would’ve been saying the same things about Allen as I am now about our QB if I was a Bills fan — need a backup plan, odds of him becoming a FQB are very remote, etc.

Allen beat the long odds. I hope to hell our QB can also.

If Daboll fixes Daniel Jones he will be the highest paid NFL HC within 3 years.

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3 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Holy hell Id like to find a classic like that refurbish it to keep my cereal in. 

Lacks the flexibility of the feedbag you use now 

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2 minutes ago, jgb said:

I would’ve been saying the same things about Allen as I am now about our QB if I was a Bills fan — need a backup plan, odds of him becoming a FQB are very remote, etc.

Allen beat the long odds. I hope to hell our QB can also.

I appreciate the sentiment but Allen is literally in the cyborg range of human physicality. His mere physical presence prevents defenses from treating him like any other QB. This bought him the time to work on his accuracy and acclimate to the NFL passing game. Oh yeah, Stephon Diggs too. Zach? Really nice kid, can be fun too watch at times but as much as I’d like to I just can’t understand what exactly it is about him that will allow him to make that leap. Except of course really really really wanting him to. I know people think I’m being sarcastic, but I really do think Flacco can make a run with this offense. At least I’m pretty sure has the best chance to. 

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9 minutes ago, jgb said:

I would’ve been saying the same things about Allen as I am now about our QB if I was a Bills fan — need a backup plan, odds of him becoming a FQB are very remote, etc.

Allen beat the long odds. I hope to hell our QB can also.

If Daboll fixes Daniel Jones he will be the highest paid NFL HC within 3 years.

Good point on Jones for sure, I am so torn. I want the Bills to step back because of Daboll leaving. I want that success to be his, more than anyone realizes. But if that is true, and he repeats it with the Giants ugh.

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17 hours ago, bostonmajet said:

No problem; Moholmes is a great QB. It doesn't necessarily mean that he would have been great or even good. Of course we don't know and we can only go by what happened. Personally, I can't understand people thinking that no matter where a QB lands, he is going to turn out the same.

Agree to disagree.

Yet Alex Smith was pretty much the same guy with Harbaugh, Reid,  Gruden and Rivera.   Tom Brady does the same stuff with BB and Arians.  Kurt Warner when healthy is pretty much the same guy with Mike Martz as he is with Ken Whisenhunt.  

Brett Favre had one of his greatest all time seasons in MN with Brad Childress as his HC.  

Sam Darnold is the same guy with Gase and Rhule.  

Personally I can't understand why we make excuses for QB's who wash out.

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5 hours ago, bostonmajet said:

LOL - so, no point drafting or building a team; no point surrounding a QB with talent; no point finding a good coach/qb coach. If you are good you are good and if you are not you are not - LOL.

Boy, you sure like making points for people that they're not even close to making.  

Fun characteristic for anyone posting on a message board, that's for sure.

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16 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Yes to all of this.  And I'll never fault a GM for spending a little extra to try to find a WR1 or EDGE guy.  None of those were massive over-spends at the time. 

That was not the case for an ILB like Mosley.  EVERYONE recognized that as a massive over-spend, even the people who loved the player.

And Lawson will work out in the end, too.

iirc Baltimore's last offer for Mosley was in the $11-12MM range before Maccagnan blew it out of the water with $17MM because - as the story went - Gase wanted him so badly. Perhaps not taking no for an answer in signing Mosley was some amount of give-back after adding Bell, whom Gase decidedly didn't want. Would have to ask the parties involved for a concrete answer on that.

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2 hours ago, Maxman said:

Good point on Jones for sure, I am so torn. I want the Bills to step back because of Daboll leaving. I want that success to be his, more than anyone realizes. But if that is true, and he repeats it with the Giants ugh.

I wouldn’t be too concerned. Allen was a very rare outcome and likely a perfect storm combination of player and coach.

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3 hours ago, jgb said:

The tricks of course is knowing who the stiffs are and who the Josh Allen is until you see which becomes the Josh Allen (which happens about once a decade). This is now the 4th dude in a row I’ve heard the same line of reasoning: “How do WE KNOW you can’t become X, Y, or Z?” Well we can’t know, but we can approximate the likelihood and it ain’t good.

I’ve never said this and am not saying it now. 
I’ve said over and over that top of the draft QBs fail to develop and fail 85% of the time.  So yes anyone of these QBs can turn it around, like all in the 1st round of the 2021 draft would have to but it’s also true the odds are against it.  Both statements can be true

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16 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I’ve never said this and am not saying it now. 
I’ve said over and over that top of the draft QBs fail to develop and fail 85% of the time.  So yes anyone of these QBs can turn it around, like all in the 1st round of the 2021 draft would have to but it’s also true the odds are against it.  Both statements can be true

Yeah sounds like we agree but with one quibble—our QB isn’t a first round draft pick anymore in terms of extrapolation. He’s a 2nd year player with a season of NFL data behind him that is much more correlative to future NFL performance than 3 years of college ball. 

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41 minutes ago, jgb said:

Yeah sounds like we agree but with one quibble—our QB isn’t a first round draft pick anymore in terms of extrapolation. He’s a 2nd year player with a season of NFL data behind him that is much more correlative to future NFL performance than 3 years of college ball. 

But on the other hand, Allen had two poor seasons under his belt before turning his career path around.  He wasn’t given a two year and done ultimatum as many want the 2021 class to be subject to.  So I don’t agree necessarily with one season of NFL data being a foolproof indicator of anything more than it’s one year 

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5 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

But on the other hand, Allen had two poor seasons under his belt before turning his career path around.  He wasn’t given a two year and done ultimatum as many want the 2021 class to be subject to.  So I don’t agree necessarily with one season of NFL data being a foolproof indicator of anything more than it’s one year 

Yes that does happen in like 1 of 30 cases and requires you to pay the opportunity cost while you wait.

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42 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

But on the other hand, Allen had two poor seasons under his belt before turning his career path around.  He wasn’t given a two year and done ultimatum as many want the 2021 class to be subject to.  So I don’t agree necessarily with one season of NFL data being a foolproof indicator of anything more than it’s one year 

On the other hand his second poor season got them to the playoffs and wasn't really a poor season if you didn't discount what he did with the ball in his hand.   

While he didn't have a great completion percentage.  He broke down NFL defenses on a regular basis.  He ranked 2nd among all QB's in game winning drives and was tied for first in 4th quarter comebacks.  That was year 2.  

You completely discount the huge jump from year 1 to year 2.   He was not a great QB but he was a winning QB.  He improved dramatically in all statistical catagories and he was already rutinely breaking down defenses.

Josh Allen in year 2 was balling in the NFL.  He helped turn around the program in year 2. 

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7 minutes ago, Biggs said:

On the other hand his second poor season got them to the playoffs and wasn't really a poor season if you didn't discount what he did with the ball in his hand.   

While he didn't have a great completion percentage.  He broke down NFL defenses on a regular basis.  He ranked 2nd among all QB's in game winning drives and was tied for first in 4th quarter comebacks.  That was year 2.  

You completely discount the huge jump from year 1 to year 2.   He was not a great QB but he was a winning QB.  He improved dramatically in all statistical catagories and he was already rutinely breaking down defenses.

Josh Allen in year 2 was balling in the NFL.  He helped turn around the program in year 2. 

None of his numbers in year two, on a playoff caliber team are anywhere close to the numbers everyone is claiming ZW should reach in year two.  Allen’s turnaround year is of a bottom half of the list of NFL QBs.  
 

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3 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

None of his numbers in year two, on a playoff caliber team are anywhere close to the numbers everyone is claiming ZW should reach in year two.  Allen’s turnaround year is of a bottom half of the list of NFL QBs.  
 

Allen, before he became an accurate QB in year 3 was still a playmaking QB who impacted games in year 2.  If you want a good comparison Kaepernick, the year he took the 49ers to the SB had a 62% completion percentage.  That same year Smith had a   70.2 percent completion percentage and never got his job back after he was injured.

Zach has to have a much higher completion percentage a much better TD to INT ratio and a much better QBR than Allen did in year 2 to be any where near as impactful as Allen in year 2.

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5 hours ago, Maxman said:

Good point on Jones for sure, I am so torn. I want the Bills to step back because of Daboll leaving. I want that success to be his, more than anyone realizes. But if that is true, and he repeats it with the Giants ugh.

I think the Giants roster is so far below what the Bills had in 2020 that I wouldn't worry much about it.  Even if they have fixed their OT position, I can't really think of a single pass catcher on that team that worries anyone.

 

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3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Boy, you sure like making points for people that they're not even close to making.  

Fun characteristic for anyone posting on a message board, that's for sure.

So what you're really saying, is that you hate Kittens?

Damn kitten haters.

OIP.63ZYv5tktKeDPAj_9TDwTAHaFv?pid=ImgDe

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

Yes that does happen in like 1 of 30 cases and requires you to pay the opportunity cost while you wait.

Allen and to some degree also Jackson, cannot be looked at as just standard issue QB's.

Their ability to run and score running is a wildcard that changes things meaningfully.

Allen was a poo-to-meh passer his first two years, no doubt.

But he ran for 631 yards an 8 TD's as a rookie.  Then 510 yards and 9 TD's as a 2nd year player.

That kind of game breaking, play-making and scoring from a QB is something the average guy doesn't provide and shouldn't be ignored.

Same goes for Jackson, 700, 1,200, 1,000 yards rushing his first three years, with 7 and 7 rushing TD's in year's 2 and 3.

Again, numbers don't lie, but the can be overlooked or under-appreciated. 

2019 Jackson combined produced 4,300+ yards, 43 TD's to only 6 INT's and 9 fumbles (4 of which he himself recovered, no data at hand on the other 5 if lost or recovered).

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8 hours ago, Biggs said:

Yet Alex Smith was pretty much the same guy with Harbaugh, Reid,  Gruden and Rivera.   Tom Brady does the same stuff with BB and Arians.  Kurt Warner when healthy is pretty much the same guy with Mike Martz as he is with Ken Whisenhunt.  

Brett Favre had one of his greatest all time seasons in MN with Brad Childress as his HC.  

Sam Darnold is the same guy with Gase and Rhule.  

Personally I can't understand why we make excuses for QB's who wash out.

wasn't making an excuse for anyone - in fact the opposite; i was suggesting that a good player could easily have been ruined by an incompetent franchise - i think it is overly simplistic to assume that a great qb would be great regardless on the team, coaching, etc. Some players do better in one scheme than another. How good would Lamar Jackson be if they didn't create an offense around his strength. Tibow played well in Denver but no where else. But, sure, coaching, scheme and players don't mean anything. But whatever.

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6 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Boy, you sure like making points for people that they're not even close to making.  

Fun characteristic for anyone posting on a message board, that's for sure.

Check out the mirror - I was making my point not anyone else's.

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