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Lith
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14 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Are they?  Josh Allen could have busted or turned the corner like he did.  Nothing was proven in year 2.  Actually seemed like the Bills worked his game management skills.  He was under 3100 yards.  His 2-1 TD ratio was nice but nothing said elite.  He’s not the only example, there is a long list of QBs that says you can still become elite after year 2 struggles

Yes we have established clearly that Josh Allen was a historical outlier. Hoping for that outcome is hope against the odds, which is fine. I just suggest we call it what it is, which means not blasting people as secretly wanting the QB or the team to fail when they point this out. 

That’s all.

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15 minutes ago, jgb said:

Yes we have established clearly that Josh Allen was a historical outlier. Hoping for that outcome is hope against the odds, which is fine. I just suggest we call it what it is, which means not blasting people as secretly wanting the QB or the team to fail when they point this out. 

That’s all.

It’s not just Allen and isn’t all that debatable.  Some QBs have taken more than 2 seasons to prove they’re  elite.  

 

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11 minutes ago, Lith said:

I don't need to see Wilson throw for 4,000+ yards or 35+ TDs in year 2 to feel he is on the right track.  It would be great if he did.  But give me a season with 62% - 65%, 3,500 yards, 25 TDs, 10 picks.  Beyond the stats, let him take some shots when he has favorable matchups - 3rd and 2, loaded box, man coverage on Davis/Wilson, no safety over the top, take your shot.  Lead the team back in the 4th quarter a couple times when the defense knows you need to throw.  If he does that, I will be happy.

In other words, let him have a Russell Wilson type year 2: 63%, 3,350 yards, 26 TDs, 9 picks.  Full disclosure, the other guy in recent history to put up similar numbers in year 2 was Marcus Mariota who had an almost identical statistical season 2 to Wilson,  So there are not guarantees, but at minimum, that is the type of season I am looking for.

Russell Wilson had an amazing second year.  Granted they had an amazing run game but Wilson had a QBR over 100, top 5, he was top 5 in yards per attempt, top 3 in TD%,  In his second year his completion percent was 12th in the league.  Last year it would have been 25th.  

Fun fact.  Wilson's rookie year was just as good.  

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17 hours ago, Biggs said:

Did you see Toon and Walker play in their prime or are you making a stat based argument?  I freely admit I'm making an eye test argument.  I just looked at the stats and when you look at best years it hurts your argument.  

I watched every game of both players.  My family had season tickets during the Wesley Walker years, and I saw him a lot while in the stadium.  I'm sure you are aware that Walker played his entire career being legally blind in 1 eye, right?  I mean, Toon wasn't the only one playing with a handicap.

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28 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Russell Wilson had an amazing second year.  Granted they had an amazing run game but Wilson had a QBR over 100, top 5, he was top 5 in yards per attempt, top 3 in TD%,  In his second year his completion percent was 12th in the league.  Last year it would have been 25th.  

Fun fact.  Wilson's rookie year was just as good.  

OK, so maybe R Wilson is a high bar.  He was also playing with a lead a lot on a really good teams and didn't need to take risks.   I doubt Zach will have that luxury, so yeah, he may not quite make it to RW's numbers.

My point was more that we can have a strong running game, not need a game plan that calls on Zach to throw 40 times per game.  He can be efficient in year 2 and still be very good quarterback.  He does not need to put up Mahomes/Burrow/Herbert numbers this season.  I would love it if he does.  But if we lean on the run game, be efficient, take shots when it makes sense, lead the team back in a couple of games, that is a huge leap from last year.

Fun fact.  The 5th and 6th highest yardage ever thrown by a year 2 QB (Mahomes, Marino, Herbert and Burrow are top 4) was Drew Bledsoe and Blake Bortles, so there are no guarantees.

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How many legitimate, established franchise QB’s are there in the NFL right now? It’s a pretty small list. Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Mahomes, Wilson, Herbert, Prescott, Rodgers, Brady, Stafford, Murray. Then there’s the Ryan, Tannehill, Carr, Cousins tier.

The sample size is too small to throw out a few exceptions and say guys are elite early.

-Allen took a bit to get rolling, adds as a runner, and took a leap when they added Diggs 

-Burrow elevated a bad team but had skill position talent around him

-Jackson is unique as a runner, plays for an elite franchise, and sat half his rookie year

-Mahomes sat a year and had skill position talent around him 

-Wilson started as a game manager on a good team and grew 

-Herbert elevated a bad team but had skill position talent around him 

-Prescott was good on a loaded team

-Rodgers sat three years and the Packers were tremendous at drafting receivers 

-Brady was a game manager on a loaded team and developed, started putting up huge numbers when they brought Moss in

-Stafford took a bit to get rolling and had Megatron

-Murray adds as a runner, took a leap when the Cardinals brought in Hopkins, and I don’t think we definitively know where his career is going


Ultimately I don’t think we see a lot of guys elevate bad teams. More than half of that group came in on good teams, the rest all had good skill position talent and were either part of rebuilds that got rolling when they brought in skill talent or took a bit to get rolling despite skill talent and didn’t win until getting traded. Ultimately that’s why I thought taking someone #2 in a loaded 2021 class for a bad team was questionable and I thought they should sit if they were drafted, but the team took a different approach. Those guys had different enough paths that I don’t think there’s really a one size fits all approach though.

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35 minutes ago, Biggs said:

Russell Wilson had an amazing second year.  Granted they had an amazing run game but Wilson had a QBR over 100, top 5, he was top 5 in yards per attempt, top 3 in TD%,  In his second year his completion percent was 12th in the league.  Last year it would have been 25th.  

Fun fact.  Wilson's rookie year was just as good.  

Wilson was an excellent game manager on a team that didn’t need to throw the ball a lot - 16th in passing yards that year.

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22 hours ago, sec143dmf said:

Even the biggest Becton supporters have to be concerned at this point.  He wouldn't say he was in good shape at all. 

I have been a Becton proponent, but he had to be at least 60 pounds or more over what the Jets expected to see. And what happened to all the "training" he was allegedly doing while away?  Total bullsht, and the Jets PR that he was doing fine was a big lie.   The dude is ruining his own career with that weight.  

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11 hours ago, Paradis said:

lol damn you -- don't even put that thought in my head...

🤔

*reflects on the timing of when he bought Sam, Geno, Revis, Edwards etc Jersey...*

Fck.

I thought you knew better. Very disappointing. Darnold's career was destined to tank the moment I bought his rookie jersey.

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26 minutes ago, derp said:

Wilson was an excellent game manager on a team that didn’t need to throw the ball a lot - 16th in passing yards that year.

He was far from a game manager.  He was a playmaker.  He was throwing down the field.  He wasn't taking what was given to him.  He's one of the best playmaking QB's in the league.   Low attempts, run first team with a great D.  Down field on the attempts with a great completion percentage.   Holds the ball forever and keeps plays alive to make the most of every attempt. 

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1 hour ago, Lith said:

I don't need to see Wilson throw for 4,000+ yards or 35+ TDs in year 2 to feel he is on the right track.  It would be great if he did.  But give me a season with 62% - 65%, 3,500 yards, 25 TDs, 10 picks.  Beyond the stats, let him take some shots when he has favorable matchups - 3rd and 2, loaded box, man coverage on Davis/Wilson, no safety over the top, take your shot.  Lead the team back in the 4th quarter a couple times when the defense knows you need to throw.  If he does that, I will be happy.

In other words, let him have a Russell Wilson type year 2: 63%, 3,350 yards, 26 TDs, 9 picks.  Full disclosure, the other guy in recent history to put up similar numbers in year 2 was Marcus Mariota who had an almost identical statistical season 2 to Wilson,  So there are not guarantees, but at minimum, that is the type of season I am looking for.

This is really the key here.  Dont lose games by throwing picks and fumbling, and step up in a few games when its needed.  It doesnt need to be perfect, but hopefully after a few games we can sit back and say "Zach balled out in the 4th and won that game".  The Titans game was close to that if he ices it before OT and hits the wide open guy for a TD in OT, but for that feeling was entirely missing last year.

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2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

It’s not just Allen and isn’t all that debatable.  Some QBs have taken more than 2 seasons to prove they’re  elite.  

 

“Some” is the operative word. For every one that has, there are dozens — possibly 100 — that suck early and always suck. @Jetsfan80 has painstakingly put a list together. 
 

That’s the funny thing about odds—when you play them, yes you might miss the odd Josh Allen but you also save yourself years waiting on dozens of scrubs to show they are not the rare Josh Allen. This is why I prefer taking multiple parallel shots at QB. Draft one early, draft one late, and bring in a young vet with theoretical upside. Increase your odds. All eggs in one basket makes no sense at the most important position in sport.

Deciding based on outlier would cause powerball tickets to replace 401(k)s.

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8 minutes ago, jgb said:

“Some” is the operative word. For every one that has, there are dozens — possibly 100 — that suck early and always suck. @Jetsfan80 has painstakingly put a list together. 

Some new additions in bold:  

 

Tim Couch (Pick 1.1, 1999)

David Carr (Pick 1.1, 2002)

JaMarcus Russell (Pick 1.1, 2007)

Sam Bradford (Pick 1.1, 2010)

Rick Mirer (Pick 1.2, 1993)

Ryan Leaf (Pick 1.2, 1998)

Robert Griffin III (Pick 1.2, 2012)

Marcus Mariota (Pick 1.2, 2015)

Jack Thompson (Pick 1.3, 1979)

Heath Shuler (Pick 1.3, 1994)

Akili Smith (Pick 1.3, 1999)

Joey Harrington (Pick 1.3, 2002)

Vince Young (Pick 1.3, 2006)

Blake Bortles (Pick 1.3, 2014)

Sam Darnold (Pick 1.3, 2018)

Art Schlichter (Pick 1.4, 1982)

Mark Sanchez (Pick 1.5, 2009)

Rich Campbell (Pick 1.6, 1981)

Kelly Stouffer (Pick 1.6, 1987)

David Klingler (Pick 1.6, 1992)

Todd Blackledge (Pick 1.7, 1983)

Andre Ware (Pick 1.7, 1990)

Byron Leftwich (Pick 1.7, 2003)

Jake Locker (Pick 1.8, 2011)

Matt Leinart (Pick 1.10, 2006)

Blaine Gabbert (Pick 1.10, 2011)

Josh Rosen (Pick 1.10, 2018)

Jerry Tagge (Pick 1.11, 1972)

Chuck Long (Pick 1.12, 1986)

Cade McNown (Pick 1.12, 1999)

Christian Ponder (Pick 1.12, 2011)

John Reaves (Pick 1.14, 1972)

Dwayne Haskins (Pick 1.15, 2019)

Dan McGwire (Pick 1.16, 1991)

EJ Manuel (Pick 1.16, 2013)

Josh Freeman (Pick 1.17, 2009)

Steve Pisarkiewicz (Pick 1.19, 1977)

Kyle Boller (Pick 1.19, 2003)

Rex Grossman (Pick 1.22, 2003)

J.P. Losman (Pick 1.22, 2004)

Brady Quinn (Pick 1.22, 2007)

Brandon Weeden (Pick 1.22, 2012)

Johnny Manziel (Pick 1.22, 2014)

Steve Fuller (Pick 1.23, 1979)

Todd Marinovich (Pick 1.24, 1991)

Jason Campbell (Pick 1.25, 2005)

Tim Tebow (Pick 1.25, 2010)

Jim Druckenmiller (Pick 1.26, 1997)

Paxton Lynch (Pick 1.26, 2016)

Mark Malone (Pick 1.28, 1980)

Patrick Ramsey (Pick 1.32, 2002)

Teddy Bridgewater (Pick 1.32, 2014)

Dennis Shaw (Pick 2.30, 1970)

Mike Elkins (Pick 2.32, 1989)

Gary Huff (Pick 2.33, 1973)

Browning Nagle (Pick 2.34, 1991)

Kevin Kolb (Pick 2.36, 2007)

Gene Bradley (Pick 2.37, 1980)

Geno Smith (Pick 2.39, 2013)

Pat Sullivan (Pick 2.40, 1972)

Matt Blundin (Pick 2.40, 1992)

John Beck (Pick 2.40, 2007)

Oliver Luck (Pick 2.44, 1982)

Pat White (Pick 2.44, 2009)

Gary Kiethley (Pick 2.45, 1973)

Todd Collins (Pick 2.45, 1995)

Tony Sacca (Pick 2.46, 1992)

Mike Kruczek (Pick 2.47, 1976)

Matt Kofler (Pick 2.48, 1982)

Jimmy Clausen (Pick 2.48, 2010)

Jeb Blount (Pick 2.50, 1976)

Matt Cavanaugh (Pick 2.50, 1978)

Shaun King (Pick 2.50, 1999)

Bill Cappleman (Pick 2.51, 1970)

Guy Benjamin (Pick 2.51, 1978)

Billy Joe Tolliver (Pick 2.51, 1989)

Christian Hackenberg (Pick 2.51, 2016)

DeShone Kizer (Pick 2.52, 2017)

Glenn Carano (Pick 2.54, 1977)

Brock Osweiler (Pick 2.57, 2012)

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Tim Couch (Pick 1.1, 1999)

David Carr (Pick 1.1, 2002)

JaMarcus Russell (Pick 1.1, 2007)

Sam Bradford (Pick 1.1, 2010)

Rick Mirer (Pick 1.2, 1993)

Ryan Leaf (Pick 1.2, 1998)

Robert Griffin III (Pick 1.2, 2012)

Marcus Mariota (Pick 1.2, 2015)

Jack Thompson (Pick 1.3, 1979)

Heath Shuler (Pick 1.3, 1994)

Akili Smith (Pick 1.3, 1999)

Joey Harrington (Pick 1.3, 2002)

Vince Young (Pick 1.3, 2006)

Blake Bortles (Pick 1.3, 2014)

Art Schlichter (Pick 1.4, 1982)

Mark Sanchez (Pick 1.5, 2009)

Rich Campbell (Pick 1.6, 1981)

Kelly Stouffer (Pick 1.6, 1987)

David Klingler (Pick 1.6, 1992)

Todd Blackledge (Pick 1.7, 1983)

Andre Ware (Pick 1.7, 1990)

Byron Leftwich (Pick 1.7, 2003)

Jake Locker (Pick 1.8, 2011)

Matt Leinart (Pick 1.10, 2006)

Blaine Gabbert (Pick 1.10, 2011)

Jerry Tagge (Pick 1.11, 1972)

Chuck Long (Pick 1.12, 1986)

Cade McNown (Pick 1.12, 1999)

Christian Ponder (Pick 1.12, 2011)

John Reaves (Pick 1.14, 1972)

Dan McGwire (Pick 1.16, 1991)

EJ Manuel (Pick 1.16, 2013)

Josh Freeman (Pick 1.17, 2009)

Steve Pisarkiewicz (Pick 1.19, 1977)

Kyle Boller (Pick 1.19, 2003)

Rex Grossman (Pick 1.22, 2003)

J.P. Losman (Pick 1.22, 2004)

Brady Quinn (Pick 1.22, 2007)

Brandon Weeden (Pick 1.22, 2012)

Johnny Manziel (Pick 1.22, 2014)

Steve Fuller (Pick 1.23, 1979)

Todd Marinovich (Pick 1.24, 1991)

Jason Campbell (Pick 1.25, 2005)

Tim Tebow (Pick 1.25, 2010)

Jim Druckenmiller (Pick 1.26, 1997)

Paxton Lynch (Pick 1.26, 2016)

Mark Malone (Pick 1.28, 1980)

Patrick Ramsey (Pick 1.32, 2002)

Teddy Bridgewater (Pick 1.32, 2014)

Dennis Shaw (Pick 2.30, 1970)

Mike Elkins (Pick 2.32, 1989)

Gary Huff (Pick 2.33, 1973)

Browning Nagle (Pick 2.34, 1991)

Kevin Kolb (Pick 2.36, 2007)

Gene Bradley (Pick 2.37, 1980)

Geno Smith (Pick 2.39, 2013)

Pat Sullivan (Pick 2.40, 1972)

Matt Blundin (Pick 2.40, 1992)

John Beck (Pick 2.40, 2007)

Oliver Luck (Pick 2.44, 1982)

Pat White (Pick 2.44, 2009)

Gary Kiethley (Pick 2.45, 1973)

Todd Collins (Pick 2.45, 1995)

Tony Sacca (Pick 2.46, 1992)

Mike Kruczek (Pick 2.47, 1976)

Matt Kofler (Pick 2.48, 1982)

Jimmy Clausen (Pick 2.48, 2010)

Jeb Blount (Pick 2.50, 1976)

Matt Cavanaugh (Pick 2.50, 1978)

Shaun King (Pick 2.50, 1999)

Bill Cappleman (Pick 2.51, 1970)

Guy Benjamin (Pick 2.51, 1978)

Billy Joe Tolliver (Pick 2.51, 1989)

Christian Hackenberg (Pick 2.51, 2016)

DeShone Kizer (Pick 2.52, 2017)

Glenn Carano (Pick 2.54, 1977)

Brock Osweiler (Pick 2.57, 2012)

Lousy troll

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2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Are they?  Josh Allen could have busted or turned the corner like he did.  Nothing was proven in year 2.  Actually seemed like the Bills worked his game management skills.  He was under 3100 yards.  His 2-1 TD ratio was nice but nothing said elite.  He’s not the only example, there is a long list of QBs that says you can still become elite after year 2 struggles

Again if you want the greatest outlier at the QB position in decades to inform the Jets choices, I have to disagree. Bets should’ve been hedged. Flacco is not a hedge. JD better hope lightening strikes twice in the same division within 3 years.

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1 minute ago, GangGreened said:

Now can we get a list of the guys that turned “elite” in their 3rd season?

That list is much, much shorter, I assure you.  And typically required some extraordinary circumstances to happen.  

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I'm adding some new additions to the list above in bold

That list will grow 20x as fast as the “like Josh Allen” list in perpetuity.

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3 minutes ago, GangGreened said:

Now can we get a list of the guys that turned “elite” in their 3rd season?

Let’s let someone arguing that position to make their own case 

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1 hour ago, Lith said:

OK, so maybe R Wilson is a high bar.  He was also playing with a lead a lot on a really good teams and didn't need to take risks.   I doubt Zach will have that luxury, so yeah, he may not quite make it to RW's numbers.

My point was more that we can have a strong running game, not need a game plan that calls on Zach to throw 40 times per game.  He can be efficient in year 2 and still be very good quarterback.  He does not need to put up Mahomes/Burrow/Herbert numbers this season.  I would love it if he does.  But if we lean on the run game, be efficient, take shots when it makes sense, lead the team back in a couple of games, that is a huge leap from last year.

Fun fact.  The 5th and 6th highest yardage ever thrown by a year 2 QB (Mahomes, Marino, Herbert and Burrow are top 4) was Drew Bledsoe and Blake Bortles, so there are no guarantees.

Nope. But there are odds. And odds should guide the decisions of professionals (as opposed to fans).

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12 minutes ago, jgb said:

“Some” is the operative word. For every one that has, there are dozens — possibly 100 — that suck early and always suck. @Jetsfan80 has painstakingly put a list together. 
 

That’s the funny thing about odds—when you play them, yes you might miss the odd Josh Allen but you also save yourself years waiting on dozens of scrubs to show they are not the rare Josh Allen. This is why I prefer taking multiple parallel shots at QB. Draft one early, draft one late, and bring in a young vet with theoretical upside. Increase your odds. All eggs in one basket makes no sense at the most important position in sport.

Deciding based on outlier would cause powerball tickets to replace 401(k)s.

Not disagreeing.  Just saying it’s not impossible.  Somehow I don’t think Lawrence, Wilson, Lance & Fields will all bust.  They all pretty much finished their rookie seasons in the same boat 

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8 minutes ago, jgb said:

Again if you want the greatest outlier at the QB position in decades to inform the Jets choices, I have to disagree. Bets should’ve been hedged. Flacco is not a hedge. JD better hope lightening strikes twice in the same division within 3 years.

He’s not close to being the greatest outlier in all the years I’ve watched football. 

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3 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Not disagreeing.  Just saying it’s not impossible.  Somehow I don’t think Lawrence, Wilson, Lance & Fields will all bust.  They all pretty much finished their rookie seasons in the same boat 

Yes nothing is impossible. Too often people seem to equate skepticism of the QB with the belief that it’s impossible that becomes a FQB. It’s strawmanning at its finest.

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3 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

He’s not close to being the greatest outlier in all the years I’ve watched football. 

I've never seen a QB with his turnover/accuracy issues for all 4 years of college + his first 2 years in the pros have a turnaround like that in year 3.  

And it was especially amazing to see it in the Ty Law rule era (2005-present), when its been a lot more obvious to see whether QB's have it or not by year 2/3.  The likes of Jim Plunkett, Steve Young, Troy Aikman and Rich Gannon played at a time when CB's could mug WR's.  It was pretty much a different game entirely.

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2 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

He’s not close to being the greatest outlier in all the years I’ve watched football. 

This is a topic that’s been discussed ad naseum if you have a new viewpoint to bring to the table I’d be very interested to hear it. All sincerity.

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10 minutes ago, jgb said:

That list will grow 20x as fast as the “like Josh Allen” list in perpetuity.

Josh Allen took the Bills to the playoffs in year 2.  He had 5 game winning drives and 4 4th Quarter comebacks.  While he didn't have great accuracy he was not a game manager.  He balled and accounted for a lot of big plays.

Josh Allen is a physical freak who came out with very little experience from a nothing program.   He was always a project.  If Josh Allen is asked to game manage in year 2 and make a lot of short passes that they give you the Bills don't sniff the playoffs.  

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17 minutes ago, GangGreened said:

Now can we get a list of the guys that turned “elite” in their 3rd season?

I posted 4 elite QBs who didn't turn it on until season 3 or later, including Brees and Favre who played badly, Rodgers who didn't play at all for 3 years, and Ben, who was good his rookie year, but bad in years 2 and 3 before turning it back on. 

The response from some was along the lines of "oh, they didn't start their careers in the last 6.429 years and they didn't have a right-handed 3rd grade teacher".  There's only so much data to work with.

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Just now, Biggs said:

Josh Allen took the Bills to the playoffs in year 2.  He had 5 game winning drives and 4 4th Quarter comebacks.  While he didn't have great accuracy he was not a game manager.  He balled and accounted for a lot of big plays.

Josh Allen is a physical freak who came out with very little experience from a nothing program.   He was always a project.  If Josh Allen is asked to game manage in year 2 and make a lot of short passes that they give you the Bills don't sniff the playoffs.  

It’s actually easier to find the next Deshaun Watson or Matt Stafford than the next Josh Allen. Studs are much more common than secret-studs-in-hiding.

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On 6/14/2022 at 11:14 AM, Spoot-Face said:

 

 

Even as a noted Becton-hopeful, I have to note the stark contrast between the comments on Becton and the comments on Mims.

The comments on Mims are to 31 other teams not the Jets fan base....IMO

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25 minutes ago, jgb said:

“Some” is the operative word. For every one that has, there are dozens — possibly 100 — that suck early and always suck. @Jetsfan80 has painstakingly put a list together. 
 

That’s the funny thing about odds—when you play them, yes you might miss the odd Josh Allen but you also save yourself years waiting on dozens of scrubs to show they are not the rare Josh Allen. This is why I prefer taking multiple parallel shots at QB. Draft one early, draft one late, and bring in a young vet with theoretical upside. Increase your odds. All eggs in one basket makes no sense at the most important position in sport.

Deciding based on outlier would cause powerball tickets to replace 401(k)s.

I understand this but this was obviously not the year to take another QB. Next year very well may be, but once Joe Flacco takes over we won’t be drafting in the top 10. Same old Jets. 

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