Mini Camp Updates

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I posted 4 elite QBs who didn't turn it on until season 3 or later, including Brees and Favre who played badly, Rodgers who didn't play at all for 3 years, and Ben, who was good his rookie year, but bad in years 2 and 3 before turning it back on. 

The response from some was along the lines of "oh, they didn't start their careers in the last 6.429 years and they didn't have a right-handed 3rd grade teacher".  There's only so much data to work with.

So 4 in 25 years. Thanks for proving our point. See: @Jetsfan80’s list.

[Biggs]

Just now, jgb said:

It’s actually easier to find the next Deshaun Watson or Matt Stafford than the next Josh Allen. Studs are much more common than secret-studs-in-hiding.

You might have to scout a lot of message parlors to find the next Watson.

[jgb]

Just now, Biggs said:

You might have to scout a lot of message parlors to find the next Watson.

As soon as I wrote it out I knew it was a mistake ? 

[Jet Nut]

11 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Neither jgb nor I are saying that either.  

And I never said either one of you said it.  

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

I understand this but this was obviously not the year to take another QB. Next year very well may be, but once Joe Flacco takes over we won’t be drafting in the top 10. Same old Jets. 

I am 100% behind Wilson to get his shot. I just would’ve preferred a Trubisky-type to the corpse of Flacco. I’d still want Wilson to start in this scenario BTW.

[Jet Nut]

10 minutes ago, jgb said:

This is a topic that’s been discussed ad naseum if you have a new viewpoint to bring to the table I’d be very interested to hear it. All sincerity.

But for some reason you keep calling him the greatest outlier. 
Table proves nothing we didn’t know.  Showing talents but still having a bad rookie season, aided by horrid talent around you isnt the same as reaching for a Tebow with the 15th.  

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

And I never said either one of you said it.  

Well you downvote a lot of posts pointing out the odds are not on the QB’s side…

[jgb]

Just now, Jet Nut said:

But for some reason you keep calling him the greatest outlier. 
Table proves nothing we didn’t know.  Showing talents but still having a bad rookie season, aided by horrid talent around you isnt the same as reaching for a Tebow with the 15th.  

I do believe he is the greatest outlier. Before then I think you have to go back to Stafford 10 years ago to come close. If you’ve got another name I’m genuinely interested.

[The Crusher]

6 minutes ago, jgb said:

I am 100% behind Wilson to get his shot. I just would’ve preferred a Trubisky-type to the corpse of Flacco. I’d still want Wilson to start in this scenario BTW.

The Joe Flacco hate on this board is beyond tolerable. 

[FootballLove]

6 hours ago, slats said:

 

The word last year was that they gave Zach the entire playbook, that they held back nothing. It was discussed as one of his strengths, as well as a potential problem. I doubt they scale that back this season. In fact, I expect some playbook evolution with the overhaul of the TE position. Much more 12/21 formations than last year, with them getting involved more as featured targets in the passing game from the line or H-back spots. 

I don't think this can possibly be true. If so, then there's nothing left for ZW to learn in years 2,3,4 etc. I get that LeFleur was a first time OC and his PlayBook was probably in flux while even he had to learn what worked and what didn't work. I'll bet his 2022 PB looks very little like the PB Zack handed at the start of the 2021 season.

Second, we just didn't have the players last year to run the entire playbook. Gaining 3 new TEs and Bryce Hall will open up a few chapters ZW never knew was in there! (because they weren't written yet!)

I believe it was Saleh (maybe LeFleur) who said ZW has a much better grasp of the plays this year, where people are supposed to be, etc. Which tells me ZW struggled with that aspect last season (learning the PB front to back).

I could easily be wrong, but I think most OCs have like 20 or so standard 'formations' and then add 'wrinkles' to each formation as time goes on. Same 'look' to the defense, then completely different outcome once the ball is snapped, depending on which wrinkle is in play.

[nycdan]

4 minutes ago, jgb said:

I do believe he is the greatest outlier. Before then I think you have to go back to Stafford 10 years ago to come close. If you’ve got another name I’m genuinely interested.

Tannehill (2012) is far from elite, but he was bad his rookie year and definitely a decent starter starting in his second year, averaging over 4k yards in seasons 2 through 4.  

Cousins (2012) wasn't really any good until his 4th season, and started in years 2-3.

 

 

[Jetsfan80]

15 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I posted 4 elite QBs who didn't turn it on until season 3 or later, including Brees and Favre who played badly, Rodgers who didn't play at all for 3 years, and Ben, who was good his rookie year, but bad in years 2 and 3 before turning it back on. 

The response from some was along the lines of "oh, they didn't start their careers in the last 6.429 years and they didn't have a right-handed 3rd grade teacher".  There's only so much data to work with.

 

My list of 1st-2nd round QB's who sucked early and continued to suck is up to 80.  

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Tannehill (2012) is far from elite, but he was bad his rookie year and definitely a decent starter starting in his second year, averaging over 4k yards in seasons 2 through 4.  

Cousins (2012) wasn't really any good until his 4th season, and started in years 2-3.

Cousins only started a total of 9 games his first 3 seasons in the league.

This is why the list we're looking at is restricted to 1st/2nd round picks.  We want to specifically look at QB's who had high expectations and who teams were clearly "building around".  Zach Wilson isn't a mid-round backup/project.

[The Crusher]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

My list of 1st-2nd round QB's who sucked early and continued to suck is up to 80.  

You know who didn’t suck? Joe Flacco! 

[Spoot-Face]

18 minutes ago, hawk said:

The comments on Mims are to 31 other teams not the Jets fan base....IMO

That's an interesting thought.

[nycdan]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

My list of 1st-2nd round QB's who sucked early and continued to suck is up to 80.  

No question about that.  Sucking -> Great is very rare compared to just sucking.  But to me, guys like Russ Wilson and Justin Herbert who shine right out of the gate are the real unicorns.  How many QBs were great from week 1 in their rookie season?  We might see one every few years?

Not that we should toss out year 1 results, but it seems that most of the great QBs either didn't play in their rookie season, or didn't play well.  There is an argument for reserving career judgment until year 2 is under way.  If, after this season, Zach still hasn't lifted up his game, then I suspect we can all agree that's a problem.  I just don't see the current situation as doomed the way some do.  Nothing wrong with disagreeing about that.  

[JoJoTownsell1]

5 minutes ago, jgb said:

I am 100% behind Wilson to get his shot. I just would’ve preferred a Trubisky-type to the corpse of Flacco. I’d still want Wilson to start in this scenario BTW.

The corpse of Flacco is arguably better than the likes of Trubisky or Mariota. Those guys just seem like better options because they are younger and there is this perception that the right OC or HC could fix these guys. Much in the same way teams signed Geno and Sanchez after they left the Jets and a team actually traded away picks for Darnold.   

We could hope that Jimmy goes unsigned while he recovers from his surgery and if Wilson goes down he would actually be a perfect fit for this offense. But he would be too expensive to bring in as a Backup.

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, nycdan said:

No question about that.  Sucking -> Great is very rare compared to just sucking.  But to me, guys like Russ Wilson and Justin Herbert who shine right out of the gate are the real unicorns.  How many QBs were great from week 1 in their rookie season?  We might see one every few years?

Not that we should toss out year 1 results, but it seems that most of the great QBs either didn't play in their rookie season, or didn't play well.  There is an argument for reserving career judgment until year 2 is under way.  If, after this season, Zach still hasn't lifted up his game, then I suspect we can all agree that's a problem.  I just don't see the current situation as doomed the way some do.  Nothing wrong with disagreeing about that.  

 

We both agree here that year 2 is the key year.  It's the guys who suck their first 2 seasons and then become elite/upper tier in year 3 that are the big rarity.  

Even Josh Allen's numbers, when giving them a second glance, weren't THAT bad in year 2.  His accuracy sucked (59 %) and he fumbled a lot (14), but he did post a 20 TD / 9 INT ratio and had a QB rating north of 80.  His leap in year 3 was so extraordinary it just made those numbers look very pedestrian.  His completion % went from 59 to 69.  His TD:INT ratio went from 20/9 to 37/10  I mean....who could have seen that kind of leap coming in the 2005-present era of football?

[slats]

1 hour ago, Biggs said:

He was far from a game manager.  He was a playmaker.  He was throwing down the field.  He wasn't taking what was given to him.  He's one of the best playmaking QB's in the league.   Low attempts, run first team with a great D.  Down field on the attempts with a great completion percentage.   Holds the ball forever and keeps plays alive to make the most of every attempt. 

Russell Wilson joined an established program. Pete Carroll was in his third year there when they drafted their Wilson and the team was already well on the upswing. Comparing that to what Zach walked into is an apples & dog poo debate. 
 
I do, however, believe that that scenario is exactly the one they’re trying to build here. An offense geared towards the running game and high percentage passes and a defense capable of getting off the field every now and then. RW walked into a situation similar to Sanchez (new HC, but the OC was the same), only Russ was a lot better, lol. Jets are trying to build that comfort zone around Zach. Nice to see some weapons around here finally. 
 
Your last line is interesting. When Zach does that, he’s criticized for playing hero ball. While I’m sure they want Zach going thru his reads and running the offense as designed, they also don’t want to remove that hero ball aspect. The game manager prognostications are pretty funny in a thread describing 30 & 50 yard TD throws in practice. Saleh’s been very open about the need for chunk plays and how difficult it is to sustain 12 play drives in today’s NFL. They want to set those up with a better grasp of the basics. 

[nycdan]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

 

We both agree here that year 2 is the key year.  It's the guys who suck their first 2 seasons and then become elite/upper tier in year 3 that are the big rarity.  

Even Josh Allen's numbers, when giving them a second glance, weren't THAT bad in year 2.  His accuracy sucked (59 %) and he fumbled a lot (14), but he did post a 20 TD / 9 INT ratio and had a QB rating north of 80.  

I would posit that Drew Brees is the better poster child for suck -> great than Allen.

He didn't play much his rookie year, but was really pretty awful in years 2-3.  

Year 4 he turned into a HoF QB literally overnight and never looked back.

[slats]

49 minutes ago, jgb said:

“Some” is the operative word. For every one that has, there are dozens — possibly 100 — that suck early and always suck. @Jetsfan80 has painstakingly put a list together. 

 

32 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Neither jgb nor I are saying that either.  

You guys are so adorable. 

[jgb]

7 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Tannehill (2012) is far from elite, but he was bad his rookie year and definitely a decent starter starting in his second year, averaging over 4k yards in seasons 2 through 4.  

Cousins (2012) wasn't really any good until his 4th season, and started in years 2-3.

 

 

Would you be cool if the QB becomes Cousins or Tannehill? I’d like to think we are hoping for greater upside than that. I will point out that I had no support when I called for the Jets to trade for Tannehill and the nigh-universal opinion is we dodged a bullet when Macc failed to land Cousins.

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

My list of 1st-2nd round QB's who sucked early and continued to suck is up to 80.  

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, nycdan said:

I would posit that Drew Brees is the better poster child for suck -> great than Allen.

He didn't play much his rookie year, but was really pretty awful in years 2-3.  

Year 4 he turned into a HoF QB literally overnight and never looked back.

Brees played in an era when CB's could still mug WR's.  That's the key difference there.  Plus you have to factor in the torn labrum he suffered his last year in SD. 

I'm not saying Brees doesn't qualify for the "career turnaround list", but I am saying Allen's year 2 to 3 leap was more impressive and it isn't very close.  His completion % went from 59 to 69.  His TD:INT ratio went from 20/9 to 37/10.  I mean....who could have seen that kind of leap coming in the 2005-present era of football?

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, slats said:

You guys are so adorable. 

Jealousy.  Emotion.  Wasted.

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, slats said:

 

You guys are so adorable. 

Here comes the monthly hit and run side shot. You know I will never take your bait again. Enjoy the beach.

[nycdan]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Brees played in an era when CB's could still mug WR's.  That's the key difference there.  Plus you have to factor in the torn labrum he suffered his last year in SD. 

I'm not saying Brees doesn't qualify for the "career turnaround list", but I am saying Allen's year 2 to 3 leap was more impressive and it isn't very close.  His completion % went from 59 to 69.  His TD:INT ratio went from 20/9 to 37/10.  I mean....who could have seen that kind of leap coming in the 2005-present era of football?

So this is a good and fun debate worth having for a minute.

 

Allen (year 2->3):  Cmp% - 58.8 - 69.2 | TD:INT - 20/9 -> 37/10 | Rating - 85.3 - 107.2

Brees (year 3->4): Cmp% - 57.6 - 65.5 | TD:INT - 11/15 - 27/7 | Rating - 67.5 - 104.8

All I'm saying here is I think it's very close and 2 of the biggest jumps I can think of year-over year after year 2.  Brees' torn labrum didn't affect these numbers.

[slats]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Jealousy.  Emotion.  Wasted.

Me? I’m just concerned about what T0m will do without you holding onto his pocket. 

5 minutes ago, jgb said:

Here comes the monthly hit and run side shot. You know I will never take your bait again. Enjoy the beach.

Take my bait? Lol, that’s a good one. Honestly, I’ve been getting a huge kick out of the martyred crybaby routine of late. 

[Jetsfan80]

8 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

The corpse of Flacco is arguably better than the likes of Trubisky or Mariota. Those guys just seem like better options because they are younger and there is this perception that the right OC or HC could fix these guys. Much in the same way teams signed Geno and Sanchez after they left the Jets and a team actually traded away picks for Darnold.   

Does Trubisky really need "fixing"?  My perception is that he's been criminally underrated all because he was drafted ahead of Mahomes and Watson.  Without that being attributed to him, when you compare him across QB classes in say, the 2015-2020 range, he's probably been the 10th or 11th best QB in that span.  Better than the likes of Baker Mayfield, Tua, Daniel Jones, and Darnold and perhaps better than Carson Wentz.  Mariota is in similar company, though I like Trubisky a little more. 

Trubisky and Mariota are certainly a notch below guys you "build around", but as far as journeymen/# 2 go, they're better options than a guy like Flacco, who openly appears to prefer to be retired out there.

[Biggs]

7 minutes ago, slats said:

Russell Wilson joined an established program. Pete Carroll was in his third year there when they drafted their Wilson and the team was already well on the upswing. Comparing that to what Zach walked into is an apples & dog poo debate. 
 
I do, however, believe that that scenario is exactly the one they’re trying to build here. An offense geared towards the running game and high percentage passes and a defense capable of getting off the field every now and then. RW walked into a situation similar to Sanchez (new HC, but the OC was the same), only Russ was a lot better, lol. Jets are trying to build that comfort zone around Zach. Nice to see some weapons around here finally. 
 
Your last line is interesting. When Zach does that, he’s criticized for playing hero ball. While I’m sure they want Zach going thru his reads and running the offense as designed, they also don’t want to remove that hero ball aspect. The game manager prognostications are pretty funny in a thread describing 30 & 50 yard TD throws in practice. Saleh’s been very open about the need for chunk plays and how difficult it is to sustain 12 play drives in today’s NFL. They want to set those up with a better grasp of the basics. 

I think if you really watch Russell Wilson he creates high percentage down field throws by holding the ball a long time and avoiding the rush.  He's not the classic run it down their throats and when the d pulls everyone up he takes a quick deep strike that the d gave him.  He creates choas for defenses by holding the ball for a very long time.  Guys end up wide open down field.  He throws a nice easy to track and catch deep ball. 

Agree the Jets want to run the ball.  I also agree they loved Zach because of his ability to strike down the field off platform.   The reason I loved the pick is I love playmaking QB's.   You can win a lot of games against bad teams through management but you don't win against good teams and playoff teams by managing the game unless your the 85 Bears.  The QB ultimately has to make plays to win those games.

There's no doubt they put some fire power around him.   I think this staff wants to go down the field in the passing game.  I hope so.  We have a tough schedule and were not managing our way to wins without a lot of chunk plays from Zach.  

 

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, nycdan said:

So this is a good and fun debate worth having for a minute.

 

Allen (year 2->3):  Cmp% - 58.8 - 69.2 | TD:INT - 20/9 -> 37/10 | Rating - 85.3 - 107.2

Brees (year 3->4): Cmp% - 57.6 - 65.5 | TD:INT - 11/15 - 27/7 | Rating - 67.5 - 104.8

All I'm saying here is I think it's very close and 2 of the biggest jumps I can think of year-over year after year 2.  Brees' torn labrum didn't affect these numbers.

You had me until the bold.  How could it not?  He missed 5 games that season and required offseason surgery.  It's a big reason why the Chargers drafted Eli and then traded him for Rivers.

[derp]

1 hour ago, Biggs said:

He was far from a game manager.  He was a playmaker.  He was throwing down the field.  He wasn't taking what was given to him.  He's one of the best playmaking QB's in the league.   Low attempts, run first team with a great D.  Down field on the attempts with a great completion percentage.   Holds the ball forever and keeps plays alive to make the most of every attempt. 

I think we’re generally in agreement aside from some minor quibbles. You don’t like that I used game manager. Perhaps there’s a better term because he did make big plays, but he had extremely low volume early in his career. There’s a big distinction in my mind between the guy who moves the offense and the guy who’s effective passing on low volume on a team with a great run game.

Wilson is an awesome downfield passer who’s never gotten to that elite level in the short to intermediate areas of the field. It was an absolutely perfect situation for him early in his career. I don’t think the numbers would’ve looked nearly as pristine if they weren’t able to lean so heavily on the run game.

[Jetsfan80]

9 minutes ago, slats said:

Me? I’m just concerned about what T0m will do without you holding onto his pocket. 

Sounds like your life is lacking major concerns these days then.  Happy for you.

[jgb]

11 minutes ago, slats said:

Me? I’m just concerned about what T0m will do without you holding onto his pocket. 

Take my bait? Lol, that’s a good one. Honestly, I’ve been getting a huge kick out of the martyred crybaby routine of late. 

I’m not the one whining about trolls constantly. Hey Geno may start this year. You can revisit that.

[Hal N of Provo]

21 hours ago, Spoot-Face said:

I think Zach sucks, guys.

 

19 hours ago, jgb said:

Dude. You really want to debate whether my point included the implicit condition that NFL QBs show something within 2 years OF ACTUALLY PLAYING NFL FOOTBALL, rather than riding the pine?

Well I sure don’t. If you think that’s a “win,” you can have it. Ya need it more than me apparently!

Yeah.  It’s a win.  
 

Do you want to watch Aaron Rodgers suck worse than Zach in his first two preseasons again?  QBs can develop on the bench, it’s just not as fast, but conventional wisdom is year 3 you see what you’ve got. 

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

 

Yeah.  It’s a win.  
 

Do you want to watch Aaron Rodgers suck worse than Zach in his first two preseasons again?  QBs can develop on the bench, it’s just not as fast, but conventional wisdom is year 3 you see what you’ve got. 

You better have been born in February considering how much water you carry.