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Lith
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6 minutes ago, derp said:

I think we’re generally in agreement aside from some minor quibbles. You don’t like that I used game manager. Perhaps there’s a better term because he did make big plays, but he had extremely low volume early in his career. There’s a big distinction in my mind between the guy who moves the offense and the guy who’s effective passing on low volume on a team with a great run game.

Wilson is an awesome downfield passer who’s never gotten to that elite level in the short to intermediate areas of the field. It was an absolutely perfect situation for him early in his career. I don’t think the numbers would’ve looked nearly as pristine if they weren’t able to lean so heavily on the run game.

It's going to be interesting seeing him play for a different head coach where the expectations for him to carry the team deep into the playoffs is off the charts. 

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3 hours ago, Lith said:

I don't need to see Wilson throw for 4,000+ yards or 35+ TDs in year 2 to feel he is on the right track.  It would be great if he did.  But give me a season with 62% - 65%, 3,500 yards, 25 TDs, 10 picks. 

So would you feel Zach would be on his way ("on the right track") to future Franchise QB if he produces say, 17 starts, 65%, 3,600 passing yards, 22 TD's to 12 INT's this year?

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40 minutes ago, derp said:

I think we’re generally in agreement aside from some minor quibbles. You don’t like that I used game manager. Perhaps there’s a better term because he did make big plays, but he had extremely low volume early in his career. There’s a big distinction in my mind between the guy who moves the offense and the guy who’s effective passing on low volume on a team with a great run game.

Wilson is an awesome downfield passer who’s never gotten to that elite level in the short to intermediate areas of the field. It was an absolutely perfect situation for him early in his career. I don’t think the numbers would’ve looked nearly as pristine if they weren’t able to lean so heavily on the run game.

If you want to talk about weapons Mac’s two outside receivers last season were UDFAs with 40 times in the 22nd and 36th percentiles. Yet he still looked like a competent (I’ll grant unexciting) NFL quarterback. 

The Pats brought in some speed on the outside and Mac is a year matured. We should not be sleeping on Mac Jones.

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48 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

You had me until the bold.  How could it not?  He missed 5 games that season and required offseason surgery.  It's a big reason why the Chargers drafted Eli and then traded him for Rivers.

Right but that was year 5.  I'm showing the year 3-4 jump.

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24 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So would you feel Zach would be on his way ("on the right track") to future Franchise QB if he produces say, 17 starts, 65%, 3,600 passing yards, 22 TD's to 12 INT's this year?

I feel like you are baiting me with a specific player in mind.  Flacco maybe, who was 3,600 21 and 12 his second year in Baltimore.

But if he also leads a couple of 4th quarter comebacks -- shows he can make plays when everyone knows he needs to throw.  Yes, I would feel a lot better about him than I do now.  Although I  would hope for better than a 22:12 TD:Int rate.

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2 minutes ago, Lith said:

I feel like you are baiting me with a specific player in mind.

Of course I am.

2 minutes ago, Lith said:

Flacco maybe, who was 3,600 21 and 12 his second year in Baltimore.

Interesting.  He wasn't on my mind.

2 minutes ago, Lith said:

But if he also leads a couple of 4th quarter comebacks -- shows he can make plays when everyone knows he needs to throw.  Yes, I would feel a lot better about him than I do now.  Although I  would hope for better than a 22:12 TD:Int rate.

Fair enough.

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23 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Got it.  But he still missed 5 games in Year 3.  Was it not an injury that cost him that?

I had to look it up.  He was replaced by Flutie because he was so bad that year.

Laughable when you look back with the hindsight of the next 18 years :)

 

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2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I've never seen a QB with his turnover/accuracy issues for all 4 years of college + his first 2 years in the pros have a turnaround like that in year 3.  

And it was especially amazing to see it in the Ty Law rule era (2005-present), when its been a lot more obvious to see whether QB's have it or not by year 2/3.  The likes of Jim Plunkett, Steve Young, Troy Aikman and Rich Gannon played at a time when CB's could mug WR's.  It was pretty much a different game entirely.

I dont see where we had a QB with turnover accuracy issues in four years of college so havent looked at it.  You could very well be right, our shining example is Darnold.  

 

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2 hours ago, jgb said:

I do believe he is the greatest outlier. Before then I think you have to go back to Stafford 10 years ago to come close. If you’ve got another name I’m genuinely interested.

Similar situation.  A QB who displays arm talent etc and struggles like a rook, made worse by having shlt around him.  

But you could see the talent in him

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

So would you feel Zach would be on his way ("on the right track") to future Franchise QB if he produces say, 17 starts, 65%, 3,600 passing yards, 22 TD's to 12 INT's this year?

That would probably be in the top 10 of QB Seasons in Franchise History...

 

Pardon me..

 

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27 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Similar situation.  A QB who displays arm talent etc and struggles like a rook, made worse by having shlt around him.  

But you could see the talent in him

I'd hope he has some special qualities being the #2 overall pick in a "strong" QB class.

Now whether he can put it together in a way that produces results.

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43 minutes ago, jgb said:

I'd hope he has some special qualities being the #2 overall pick in a "strong" QB class.

Now whether he can put it together in a way that produces results.

Agree.  Hope

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On 6/15/2022 at 2:38 PM, DoubleDown said:

Zach Wilson was definitely handed the starting job last year.  His competition in training camp was Mike White and James Morgan.  Zach Wilson took all the starting reps in practices and preseason games from Day 1.  The fact that the Jets had a QB2 and QB3 on the roster (standard for every NFL team) is not proof of a competition.

In contrast, Cam Newton was the penciled in starter for the Patriots at the start of camp in 2021.  The plan was for Mac Jones to eventually take over, and all indications are that he was able to win the starting job sooner than expected, rendering Cam Newton expendable.

Why would they have wanted a competition . New HC , new coaching staff, new players, new systems. All those arguing that Zach should have sat the bench and watched a washed Vet like Flacco potentially win an extra game or two are crazy. It made 100% sense to start Zach from the start , the experience he gained last season is a great foundation for the years to come.  The Pats were rolling the same offense under Beli/McDaniels and their Vet players were like coaches on the field for Mac , he was put in a much better position to succeed .

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2 hours ago, jgb said:

If you want to talk about weapons Mac’s two outside receivers last season were UDFAs with 40 times in the 22nd and 36th percentiles. Yet he still looked like a competent (I’ll grant unexciting) NFL quarterback. 

The Pats brought in some speed on the outside and Mac is a year matured. We should not be sleeping on Mac Jones.

Who is the Pats OC this year - Joe Judge , yes he did wonders with Danny Dimes.  Like the Jets last year the Pats and all other division teams have unstability in their coaching staffs , let's see if learning new systems and adjusting to new coaches gives them any problems. 

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37 minutes ago, maury77 said:

If Wilson is the real deal, we will know it by the end of his second season and you won't see these debates anymore. 

I got here in 2006 and people were still saying that Brady was a "system QB" and that Drew Brees was so short and his shoulder so questionable that we wanted the Dolphins to get him instead of Daunte Culpepper who won three of his next 20 starts.  You really are underestimating our ability to debate the undebateable. 

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3 hours ago, jgb said:

If you want to talk about weapons Mac’s two outside receivers last season were UDFAs with 40 times in the 22nd and 36th percentiles. Yet he still looked like a competent (I’ll grant unexciting) NFL quarterback. 

The Pats brought in some speed on the outside and Mac is a year matured. We should not be sleeping on Mac Jones.

We’ll see, I think he’ll be good solid because he seems wired that way. I don’t think 40 times have any correlation to pro success for receivers and they did have two very good tight ends, one of whom they didn’t even use, and two former first round wide receivers the UDFA’s beat out for those spots.

They were also very careful about throwing the ball - which they could do with a great run game - and kept him clean when they did. Having that run game and defense is such a huge help IMO.

If the Jets can do a version of that with better outside weapons that’s basically all you could ask.

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3 hours ago, Lith said:

I feel like you are baiting me with a specific player in mind.  Flacco maybe, who was 3,600 21 and 12 his second year in Baltimore.

But if he also leads a couple of 4th quarter comebacks -- shows he can make plays when everyone knows he needs to throw.  Yes, I would feel a lot better about him than I do now.  Although I  would hope for better than a 22:12 TD:Int rate.

I really don’t think 3600 yards is enough. That’s an average of 211 a week.  TD to int ratio works, but give me another 200 yards 3800 and I feel great about that season.  
Obviously this is without any context of how the season plays out.  Ultimately it’ll be how he plays and not the numbers but for this time of year I would be happy with those numbers. 

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Well you all can stop arguing about wilson. 

I heard from a very trusted source today that Llamar's not signing a new contract is purely to see how Wilson does in year 2.

So 2023 will be good either way!!!

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29 minutes ago, PorP said:

Well you all can stop arguing about wilson. 

I heard from a very trusted source today that Llamar's not signing a new contract is purely to see how Wilson does in year 2.

So 2023 will be good either way!!!

:-k

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1 hour ago, Lurker89 said:

The last one we could argue for is Pennington and even then a large portion of our fanbase would argue the mere implication that he was FQB material is preposterous.

Absolutely preposterous.  Franchise QB's don't go 2-4 in postseason games, with a 77.3 career postseason QB rating, 6.6 YPA, 8 INTs, and 4 fumbles.

They also don't go 3-9 against the Patriots, 5-5 against the Bills, 0-2 against the Ravens and 1-2 against the Steelers.

QB Purgatory.  

@Bleedin Green @CTM

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1 hour ago, derp said:

We’ll see, I think he’ll be good solid because he seems wired that way. I don’t think 40 times have any correlation to pro success for receivers and they did have two very good tight ends, one of whom they didn’t even use, and two former first round wide receivers the UDFA’s beat out for those spots.

They were also very careful about throwing the ball - which they could do with a great run game - and kept him clean when they did. Having that run game and defense is such a huge help IMO.

If the Jets can do a version of that with better outside weapons that’s basically all you could ask.

They sure do have an impact on average air yards per attempt by the QB, though. The knock on Mac is that he's a noodle arm. I caution restraint on that take.

Not to mention the key point is his WR1 and WR2 were UDFAs. That would buy a Jets QB several years of excuses for bad play due to "terrible supporting cast."

FQBs rise above.  FQBs don't need excuses. If you are making them, the very likely odds are that he is not a FQB.

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2 hours ago, 56mehl56 said:

Who is the Pats OC this year - Joe Judge , yes he did wonders with Danny Dimes.  Like the Jets last year the Pats and all other division teams have unstability in their coaching staffs , let's see if learning new systems and adjusting to new coaches gives them any problems. 

I tend to believe the QB is more important than the OC -- obviously both are "important" -- but failing with Daniel Jones doesn't mean he will "ruin" Mac. Reasonable minds can disagree on this.

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18 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Absolutely preposterous.  Franchise QB's don't go 2-4 in postseason games, with a 77.3 career postseason QB rating, 6.6 YPA, 8 INTs, and 4 fumbles.

They also don't go 3-9 against the Patriots, 5-5 against the Bills, 0-2 against the Ravens and 1-2 against the Steelers.

QB Purgatory.  

@Bleedin Green @CTM

But come on, what about 2/3 of the 2002 season, right?

Not to say that the 61 TDs / 51 INTs in the 54 games that followed wasn't also truly breathtaking.  1.1 TD and 1 INT per game are what QB dreams are made of.

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6 hours ago, jgb said:

I do believe he is the greatest outlier. Before then I think you have to go back to Stafford 10 years ago to come close. If you’ve got another name I’m genuinely interested.

A few off the top of my head

Kurt Warner

Chad Pennington

Rich Gannon

Tom Brady

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4 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

A few off the top of my head

Kurt Warner

Chad Pennington

Rich Gannon

Tom Brady

A mid first rounder, 6th rounder and 2 street FAs, all from a different era when stats were not as inflated as in the current game. 

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7 minutes ago, Bleedin Green said:

But come on, what about 2/3 of the 2002 season, right?

Not to say that the 61 TDs / 51 INTs in the 54 games that followed wasn't also truly breathtaking.  1.1 TD and 1 INT per game are what QB dreams are made of.


Cmon BG what if his weak, frail body hadn’t betrayed him?  WHAT THEN

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5 minutes ago, maury77 said:

A mid first rounder, 6th rounder and 2 street FAs, all from a different era when stats were not as inflated as in the current game. 

And neither Pennington nor Brady qualify either.  They didn’t “suck” their first few years in the league.  They merely didn’t get the QB1 job right away.  In Brady’s case he was starting by year 2 and obviously didn’t “suck” that year…

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