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1 hour ago, jgb said:

They sure do have an impact on average air yards per attempt by the QB, though. The knock on Mac is that he's a noodle arm. I caution restraint on that take.

Not to mention the key point is his WR1 and WR2 were UDFAs. That would buy a Jets QB several years of excuses for bad play due to "terrible supporting cast."

FQBs rise above.  FQBs don't need excuses. If you are making them, the very likely odds are that he is not a FQB.

I mean, Jones doesn’t have a plus arm. Faster receivers won’t change that. And guys who are faster but not as productive won’t help him be a better quarterback. So I don’t get that take.

Yes, they were. But you conveniently ignored the tight ends and the running game.

And I have a post earlier in this thread, but I don’t think ”franchise QB’s rise above” goes for at least half the franchise QB’s in the league right now.

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21 minutes ago, derp said:

I mean, Jones doesn’t have a plus arm. Faster receivers won’t change that. And guys who are faster but not as productive won’t help him be a better quarterback. So I don’t get that take.

Yes, they were. But you conveniently ignored the tight ends and the running game.

And I have a post earlier in this thread, but I don’t think ”franchise QB’s rise above” goes for at least half the franchise QB’s in the league right now.

I didn't ignore anything. I'm addressing the "noodle arm" critique. 

Regarding FQBs rising above, we just disagree. Which is fine.

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1 hour ago, Bowles Movement said:

A few off the top of my head

Kurt Warner

Chad Pennington

Rich Gannon

Tom Brady

Rich Gannon is the only outlier for what we're talking about. Awful first year or two then FQB. But even granting you all four of these, you see how rare such a thing is. 

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2 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

I really don’t think 3600 yards is enough. That’s an average of 211 a week.  TD to int ratio works, but give me another 200 yards 3800 and I feel great about that season.  
Obviously this is without any context of how the season plays out.  Ultimately it’ll be how he plays and not the numbers but for this time of year I would be happy with those numbers. 

Fidelio. Would 3100 passing yards be enough if the Jets rush for 1500 yards or better? 

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13 minutes ago, jgb said:

Rich Gannon is the only outlier for what we're talking about. Awful first year or two then FQB. But even granting you all four of these, you see how rare such a thing is. 

Its rare to find a franchise QB so the denominator is already small.  The numerator has to be a fraction of that number.

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On 6/15/2022 at 4:09 PM, Alka said:

Toon was a great player, and I do realize that he retired way too early because of concussions.  I'm not in any way knocking Al Toon, believe me.  And saying that Toon was a better player than Wesley Walker doesn't bother me either, but saying that Toon was way better than Walker is just not the way I would state it.  By the way, did you know that Wesley Walker was considered "legally blind" in one eye during his playing career?  Walker was great despite his handicap.  Toon was great despite his many concussions.  Imagine if Walker could see out of both eyes, and Toon was concussion free?  Both of these guys deserve all the credit we can give them.

Yep, I was always fascinated by Walkers blindness in one eye. What he was able to accomplish is truly amazing.  As I stated in another post, WW was my FAVORITE all time Jet so you don't have to convince me how good he was.  I am just stating that Toon was better and had he not gotten injured, (ould have had a career on par with Jerry Rice numbers wise, who he was often compared to. 

Bottom line is they were two great Jet receivers and if Moore and Wilson can come any where near their production and impact that we will be in good shape for years to come at WR.    

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7 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

Its rare to find a franchise QB so the denominator is already small.  The numerator has to be a fraction of that number.

Easier to find a FQB than to find a turnaround case. And besides, what's the alternative? Throw up our hands and say any crappy QB can become a FQB so never give up on anyone?

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38 minutes ago, jgb said:

I didn't ignore anything. I'm addressing the "noodle arm" critique. 

Regarding FQBs rising above, we just disagree. Which is fine.

Speed at receiver won’t change a quarterback’s arm.

You're absolutely entitled to your opinion, but when over half of the franchise guys in the league started in good situations and plenty of highly drafted guys have busted it points to situation mattering for quarterback development in a very meaningful way. It’s why I wouldn’t have drafted a guy at 2 in 2021, but guys who have “risen above” their circumstances early in their careers are few and far between.

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1 hour ago, derp said:

Speed at receiver won’t change a quarterback’s arm.

You're absolutely entitled to your opinion, but when over half of the franchise guys in the league started in good situations and plenty of highly drafted guys have busted it points to situation mattering for quarterback development in a very meaningful way. It’s why I wouldn’t have drafted a guy at 2 in 2021, but guys who have “risen above” their circumstances early in their careers are few and far between.

I’m saying with speed I believe he will take those deep shots. Jets fans everywhere called Tom Brady a glorified system QB and dink and dunker and then Randy Moss came into town. Just saying I don’t think Mac’s arm is as bad as we want it to be. He went to pro bowl (ok alternate) with 2 UDFAs as his outside receivers. That’s pretty incredible. With legit NFL talent at those outside positions… yes, I am worried.

And it is totally understandable that we underrate Pats QBs. I get it and I’m not hating.

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12 hours ago, Dcat said:

I thought you knew better. Very disappointing. Darnold's career was destined to tank the moment I bought his rookie jersey.

I talked myself IN to Darnold... i was all about the -- look! Mayfied, Rosen, these guys are winners~ 

*shrugs*

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25 minutes ago, jgb said:

I’m saying with speed I believe he will take those deep shots. Jets fans everywhere called Tom Brady a glorified system QB and dink and dunker and then Randy Moss came into town. Just saying I don’t think Mac’s arm is as bad as we want it to be. He went to pro bowl (ok alternate) with 2 UDFAs as his outside receivers. That’s pretty incredible. With legit NFL talent at those outside positions… yes, I am worried.

And it is totally understandable that we underrate Pats QBs. I get it and I’m not hating.

You don’t need to have a good arm to be an effective downfield passer, but Jones doesn’t have a good arm. Brady’s arm definitively got stronger over the years. We did the WR thing already.

I think Jones will be solid. Your logic just doesn’t track to me.

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10 hours ago, CSNY said:

Fidelio. Would 3100 passing yards be enough if the Jets rush for 1500 yards or better? 

The variable there would be wins and losses.  That's something like 180 yards a week average - even a game manager should be able to surpass that...

Now, if they win 10 games and go to the playoffs.  Sure, no problem with that number - as he's staying within the offense and they're winning games - no reason to push.

 But if they're 7 and 10 and he only throws for 3100 it would be a disappointment.

With all of that said - I can see him throwing for 4000 and the the team rushing for 1500. (average of 323 total yards per game)

Last.y regardless of ZW I would be SHOCKED if this team doesn't rush for 1500 yards this year.

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15 hours ago, Claymation said:

 

Ugh, and ugly wobbler behind the receiver ambulance ball?  You're not doing him favor posting this...unless you're showing of GW's ability to adjust? 

lol

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10 hours ago, derp said:

Speed at receiver won’t change a quarterback’s arm.

 

You can't discount the brain.  The ability to get the ball out quicker to the right guy.  Speed at WR always matters, along with route running and ability to get off the line.  I go back to Kurt Warner with both the Rams and the Cardinals when he's thumb wasn't injured.  Watch the tape.  He's ability to distribute the ball on time to the right guy almost every time was incredible.  There was nothing special about his arm.  The same is true for Montana who had a below average NFL arm.  What was special was their brain.  When they got up to the line they had weapons and options and they knew and got the ball where it needed to go before the D could react.

Great WR may be more important to guys with less than stellar arms than guys with great arms.  Marino and Elway made average to below average NFL WR look great with pure arm talent.    

 

 

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1 minute ago, Biggs said:

You can't discount the brain.  The ability to get the ball out quicker to the right guy.  Speed at WR always matters, along with route running and ability to get off the line.  I go back to Kurt Warner with both the Rams and the Cardinals when he's thumb wasn't injured.  Watch the tape.  He's ability to distribute the ball on time to the right guy almost every time was incredible.  There was nothing special about his arm.  The same is true for Montana who had a below average NFL arm.  What was special was their brain.  When they got up to the line they had weapons and options and they knew and got the ball where it needed to go before the D could react.

Great WR may be more important to guys with less than stellar arms than guys with great arms.  Marino and Elway made average to below average NFL WR look great with pure arm talent.    

 

 

I agree with a lot of what you said but there’s a big difference between “great WRs” and what Mac had last year — 2 UDFAs. Lot of room for improvement there. He also seems to have a good football brain — ability to distribute as you nicely state.

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5 minutes ago, jgb said:

I agree with a lot of what you said but there’s a big difference between “great WRs” and what Mac had last year — 2 UDFAs. Lot of room for improvement there. He also seems to have a good football brain — ability to distribute as you nicely state.

The Pats WR were terrible.  On the other side they did have a good OL, big TE's and could run the ball.   Put some good WR around him and he will be much better.  

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13 hours ago, maury77 said:

A mid first rounder, 6th rounder and 2 street FAs, all from a different era when stats were not as inflated as in the current game. 

A different era didnt prevent a Warner from making a final roster with two different teams and turn him into a grocery clerk.  

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14 hours ago, PorP said:

Well you all can stop arguing about wilson. 

I heard from a very trusted source today that Llamar's not signing a new contract is purely to see how Wilson does in year 2.

So 2023 will be good either way!!!

Where did you hear this, most are saying the Ravens will get it done before the start of the season, some time in camp.  

The parameters have been set by Mahomes, Watson etc.  He doesnt need Wilsons deal to set his asking price

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16 minutes ago, Biggs said:

You can't discount the brain.  The ability to get the ball out quicker to the right guy.  Speed at WR always matters, along with route running and ability to get off the line.  I go back to Kurt Warner with both the Rams and the Cardinals when he's thumb wasn't injured.  Watch the tape.  He's ability to distribute the ball on time to the right guy almost every time was incredible.  There was nothing special about his arm.  The same is true for Montana who had a below average NFL arm.  What was special was their brain.  When they got up to the line they had weapons and options and they knew and got the ball where it needed to go before the D could react.

Great WR may be more important to guys with less than stellar arms than guys with great arms.  Marino and Elway made average to below average NFL WR look great with pure arm talent.    

 

 

Think you’re reading way way too far into my post. I’m not discounting anyone’s brain. I simply said speed at receiver won’t change a guy’s arm. Even said you can be a good deep passer without having a good arm though it may not have been in the post you quoted.

Within your post, you acknowledged that Warner and Montana didn’t have good arms - so that supports my very simple point that the way arm strength is perceived won’t change based on having fast receivers.

If the original post had said they’re adding speed at receiver so now we’ll see if folks criticize Jones as a deep passer it’d be a different conversation…I would’ve said I don’t think Jones is criticized as a deep passer and he gets credit for good timing and placement and a willingness to take shots despite his arm.

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14 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Absolutely preposterous.  Franchise QB's don't go 2-4 in postseason games, with a 77.3 career postseason QB rating, 6.6 YPA, 8 INTs, and 4 fumbles.

They also don't go 3-9 against the Patriots, 5-5 against the Bills, 0-2 against the Ravens and 1-2 against the Steelers.

QB Purgatory.  

@Bleedin Green @CTM

I’m curious.  Was Matt Stafford a franchise QB for Detroit?

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48 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

I’m curious.  Was Matt Stafford a franchise QB for Detroit?

Rhetorical question?

He averaged 3845 yards, 25 TDs/12 INTs there for 12 years. Damn right that’s a FQB.
 

 

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2 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Ugh, and ugly wobbler behind the receiver ambulance ball?  You're not doing him favor posting this...unless you're showing of GW's ability to adjust? 

lol

It's called leading the WR to where he should go in the soft spot of the idk, whatever it looks nice, shut up.

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2 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Ugh, and ugly wobbler behind the receiver ambulance ball?  You're not doing him favor posting this...unless you're showing of GW's ability to adjust? 

lol

ambulance balls are 15 yards for the offense now

200.gif

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13 hours ago, derp said:

I mean, Jones doesn’t have a plus arm. Faster receivers won’t change that. And guys who are faster but not as productive won’t help him be a better quarterback. So I don’t get that take.

Yes, they were. But you conveniently ignored the tight ends and the running game.

And I have a post earlier in this thread, but I don’t think ”franchise QB’s rise above” goes for at least half the franchise QB’s in the league right now.

This is my problem with the whole term.  To me "franchise QB" is THE FRANCHISE.  I think we basically throw that term around for every starting level QB.  For me a franchise QB is one that you would be happy to trade 3 #1 picks to have on your side.  Maybe you can argue about guys like Ryan and Stafford reach that level, but not if they are starters.  Meanwhile people want to bash a guy like Cousins. 

For me there are three levels, can't win with them, can win with them and win because of them.  Everybody is looking for guys in the third group, but if you have one in the second, live with it and stack your team. Things get a little murkier with guys that can win games, but can't go against good teams - like Pennington, or maybe a guy that can drag a lesser team up, but not with the big one,  like Tarkenton or early Elway.

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12 hours ago, derp said:

Speed at receiver won’t change a quarterback’s arm.

You're absolutely entitled to your opinion, but when over half of the franchise guys in the league started in good situations and plenty of highly drafted guys have busted it points to situation mattering for quarterback development in a very meaningful way. It’s why I wouldn’t have drafted a guy at 2 in 2021, but guys who have “risen above” their circumstances early in their careers are few and far between.

Mac Jones was the most NFL ready prospect, and he walked into the best situation of all the rookie QBs last year. It should be no surprise that he had the best rookie season. Lawrence stepped into the worst situation and Zach’s wasn’t much better. Their struggles were both their own and reflective of their organizations. 
 
This year, of all the second year guys, you could argue that Zach is in the best situation with the Pats losing McDaniels. JD flat out copied Belichick by adding a pair of FA TEs to provide big, short and medium range targets, as well as blockers for the run and passing game. Zach has the same coaches, same QBs, and what looks to be a much improved roster around him - albeit with a lot of dependence on a couple rookies. The idea that FQBs are born and are automatically good is silly. You still need a good environment and solid talent to work with to produce. Mac Jones probably would’ve had a better rookie year on the Jets, too, but I honestly don’t see him ever being a big time QB. I’d put his ceiling in the Aikman range, which is very good, but still essentially a glorified game manager. I’m pretty excited to see what Zach does in his second year in the system with this talent and depth around him. His ceiling is much higher. 

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32 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

This is my problem with the whole term.  To me "franchise QB" is THE FRANCHISE.  I think we basically throw that term around for every starting level QB.  For me a franchise QB is one that you would be happy to trade 3 #1 picks to have on your side.  Maybe you can argue about guys like Ryan and Stafford reach that level, but not if they are starters.  Meanwhile people want to bash a guy like Cousins. 

For me there are three levels, can't win with them, can win with them and win because of them.  Everybody is looking for guys in the third group, but if you have one in the second, live with it and stack your team. Things get a little murkier with guys that can win games, but can't go against good teams - like Pennington, or maybe a guy that can drag a lesser team up, but not with the big one,  like Tarkenton or early Elway.

I generally agree and I’d add that contracts haven’t caught up to those tiers really. The NFL hasn’t figured out how to pay the “can win with them” tier yet. I think it’ll be good for the sport when they do. Cousins shouldn’t make top of the market money but there’s got to be a figure where he gets paid but the franchise still has cap space to build around him.

The other thing is that it’s hard to distinguish between the second and third groups when guys are on their rookie deals because it’s so much easier to build around them at that time.

I do think playing QB in the NFL is really really hard and guys don’t often succeed when they have absolutely nothing around them early. And they tend to succeed when they can build gradually in stable situations. Sometimes guys who can transcend situations come around but I think they’re closer to once a decade than once a draft.

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16 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

I really don’t think 3600 yards is enough. That’s an average of 211 a week.  TD to int ratio works, but give me another 200 yards 3800 and I feel great about that season.  
Obviously this is without any context of how the season plays out.  Ultimately it’ll be how he plays and not the numbers but for this time of year I would be happy with those numbers. 

I hope we have a lot of leads late and can run the ball in the 4th quarter, keeping his yradage down.  At least that is the best I can hope for, lol.

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2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Where did you hear this, most are saying the Ravens will get it done before the start of the season, some time in camp.  

The parameters have been set by Mahomes, Watson etc.  He doesnt need Wilsons deal to set his asking price

Edit: I was implying Llama was waiting to see if he could become a Jet

 

Sorry man,  I thought it was such a extreme comment everyone would have seen it as a joke. I was just being silly and trying to kill the Zack arguing with humor

Guess I failed lol

I'm no insider or have anything that resembles sources

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5 hours ago, FidelioJet said:

The variable there would be wins and losses.  That's something like 180 yards a week average - even a game manager should be able to surpass that...

Now, if they win 10 games and go to the playoffs.  Sure, no problem with that number - as he's staying within the offense and they're winning games - no reason to push.

 But if they're 7 and 10 and he only throws for 3100 it would be a disappointment.

With all of that said - I can see him throwing for 4000 and the the team rushing for 1500. (average of 323 total yards per game)

Last.y regardless of ZW I would be SHOCKED if this team doesn't rush for 1500 yards this year.

The way I see it is this way. Hypothetically speaking even if they do go 7-10 and Zach passes for 3100 yards and team rushes for somewhere in the neighborhood of 1500 yards to me that’s pretty good offensive production wouldn’t you agree? In this scenario the problem lies not with the offensive side but the defense. To me putting up arbitrary figures on Zachs production solely based on W/L record really wouldn’t be a true indication of his progress even if record is 7-10. Of course everyone here would love to see him pass for over 4000 yards let’s just see how it all plays out when season starts in earnest then we will see if all the slings, arrows and negative comments will be justified I am cautiously optimistic about the upcoming season as there has been Quite a talent upgrade from when JD first took over 

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19 minutes ago, thebuzzardman said:

Just stopping by for the latest Mac Jones analysis

I consider it a crime against humanity that I can't find a meme of that walk set to Stayin' Alive.

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17 hours ago, CSNY said:

Fidelio. Would 3100 passing yards be enough if the Jets rush for 1500 yards or better? 

I think this point is huge. If the Oline improves, with Hall and MC I don't think there is any doubt that they want this to be a run focused team. Give me top half in the league in total rushing, with Zach being able to utilize the PA and the presence of actual NFL caliber TE's and I think this offense improves dramatically. I don't need/want Zach to HAVE to carry this O. He doesn't need to hit 3800+ yards for me to see him bring successful this season, but that's just me...

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3 hours ago, slats said:

Mac Jones was the most NFL ready prospect, and he walked into the best situation of all the rookie QBs last year. It should be no surprise that he had the best rookie season. Lawrence stepped into the worst situation and Zach’s wasn’t much better. Their struggles were both their own and reflective of their organizations. 
 
This year, of all the second year guys, you could argue that Zach is in the best situation with the Pats losing McDaniels. JD flat out copied Belichick by adding a pair of FA TEs to provide big, short and medium range targets, as well as blockers for the run and passing game. Zach has the same coaches, same QBs, and what looks to be a much improved roster around him - albeit with a lot of dependence on a couple rookies. The idea that FQBs are born and are automatically good is silly. You still need a good environment and solid talent to work with to produce. Mac Jones probably would’ve had a better rookie year on the Jets, too, but I honestly don’t see him ever being a big time QB. I’d put his ceiling in the Aikman range, which is very good, but still essentially a glorified game manager. I’m pretty excited to see what Zach does in his second year in the system with this talent and depth around him. His ceiling is much higher. 

This is a great post.  TE is arguably the most important position for a rookie QB and we had nothing. We probably had the worst TE corps in the NFL. That was a huge mistake. Now it is one of out more solid groups. And then LaFleur up until the White gamer amazingly stubbornly forced 12 personnel and run, run pass which put Zach into the worst situation possible.

The weapons that Zach has to throw to because of the TE upgrade and drafting Wilson and late season blooming of Berrios is completely night and day.

On Jones if anyone was paying attention he was clearly getting figured out by the NFL towards the end of next season and he is so limited that we may have already seen his ceiling.

 

 

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On 6/14/2022 at 2:58 PM, maury77 said:

This is very modestly concerning given what was an otherwise excellent day by Wilson. Wilson struggled vs. man coverage last year compared to how he did vs. zone. Hopefully it just a trivial end of practice thing. 

I think that was because the Jets receivers could not get any separation in man coverage.  

Hopefully this year they can.  

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