PFF - "No QB saw a greater % of his attempts fall incomplete due to some kind of receiver error than Zach Wilson"

[Morrissey]

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-relationship-between-dropped-passes-quarterback-performance

"No quarterback saw a greater percentage of his attempts fall incomplete due to some kind of receiver error than Zach Wilson during his rookie season. Almost 10% of his attempts fell into this category, a couple of percentage points higher than any other quarterback. This was part of the reason the Jets were so keen to attack receiver again this offseason and ensure that Wilson’s supporting cast is as strong as it can be.

Rookie Garrett Wilson was added to the mix, and the team added yet more reinforcements to his protection along the offensive line. They will be hoping and expecting that this rate falls for Wilson next year."

[Green Ghost]

[Copernicus]

All factors that lead to more hope for the upcoming season.

[jetstream23]

But.... the narrative?

[PorP]

This is precisely what irks me about the talking heads rating Zack and the haters here talking about completion %.

His completion percentage,  yards and int's should have all been better but suffered at least a little due to some bad receiving. Further a lot were on 3rd downs which turned into 3 & outs.

Even if only 1/2 the drops weren't. We'd be talking over 60% completion,  alot more attempts and yards due, maybe td's to and definitely less int's.

[jgb]

9 minutes ago, PorP said:

This is precisely what irks me about the talking heads rating Zack and the haters here talking about completion %.

His completion percentage,  yards and int's should have all been better but suffered at least a little due to some bad receiving. Further a lot were on 3rd downs which turned into 3 & outs.

Even if only 1/2 the drops weren't. We'd be talking over 60% completion,  alot more attempts and yards due, maybe td's to and definitely less int's.

“Haters,” lol. ? 

[bitonti]

there's also this stat about Zach Wilson had more guys stopped at the 1 yard line than any other QB 

these are true facts and entertaining mind games but it all falls under "the lady doth protest too much" 

don't use semantics to prove that Zach Wilson is going to be awesome.  

just win a damn division game. 

QB rating, completion percentage, blah blah blah

the only stat that anyone should care about is wins. and as the 2 overall pick it's his job to elevate the bums around him, not everyone else's job to be perfect. 

[PorP]

2 minutes ago, jgb said:

“Haters,” lol. ? 

What do you call people who can't say anything but negative....

Realists.... truth tellers....pragmatists....

Bwahahaha... they're haters

[Spoot-Face]

[Spoot-Face]

1 minute ago, PorP said:

What do you call people who can't say anything but negative....

Realists.... truth tellers....pragmatists....

Bwahahaha... they're haters

Okay, Taylor Swift.

[PorP]

5 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

Okay, Taylor Swift.

Haters... engage power rings.....unite

[Spoot-Face]

5 minutes ago, PorP said:

Haters... engage power rings.....unite

I'm not even as down on Zach as these other "haters" you speak of. I just have the capacity to remember that we've done this excuse-making spiel with every failed Jets QB that I can remember. Every last one.

 

[peebag]

Sooooo.....

Zach no have weaponz??

[PorP]

Just now, Spoot-Face said:

I'm not even as down on Zach as these other "haters" you speak of. I just have the capacity to remember that we've done this excuse-making spiel with every failed Jets QB that I can remember. Every last one.

 

If is excuses.... and if was really Zach...

Why the new TE's, WR's, catching back.

You'll never solve any problem by pointing a finger and pretending it doesn't exist

[Spoot-Face]

5 minutes ago, PorP said:

If is excuses.... and if was really Zach...

Why the new TE's, WR's, catching back.

You'll never solve any problem by pointing a finger and pretending it doesn't exist

There can be more than one problem at the same time.

[Warfish]

Ok, if they say so. 

Let's see how he does this year then.

[jgb]

39 minutes ago, PorP said:

What do you call people who can't say anything but negative....

Realists.... truth tellers....pragmatists....

Bwahahaha... they're haters

Everyone is the hero fighting forces of darkness in their own story. Do you.

[jgb]

13 minutes ago, PorP said:

Why the new TE's, WR's, catching back.

If the QB doesn’t perform well, we will hear how the new wesponz looked good on paper but were overrated.

[Bronx]

The spirit  of Justin McDroppit lives!

[PorP]

Just now, Spoot-Face said:

There can be more than one problem at the same time.

We definitely agree. And I do think some of the balls off receivers hands were Zach's fault. 

My thing I guess,  we went from a 3-4 to a 4-3, a west coast offense,  new coaching staff,  2 new primary receivers,  1 new primary RB and still no TE's all in 4 months. 

No way is that on the shoulders of 1 guy,  but QB is the only position on the team that pays for the mistakes of other positions. Do I think Zack was flawless... no he played like a rookie.  Do I think some of Zach's stats came from other position groups learning or being poor... yes. 

[FidelioJet]

Look.  While I'm sure this is true.  He was bad last year.  I think it would be tough to argue otherwise.

Surely, he wasn't getting a whole lot of help and when he finally starting to get it - just about the entire starting offense got hurt.

But still, we always talk about the eye-test and he didn't pass it.  

I think mostly due to serious accuracy issues - particularly on the shorter throws.   he NEEDS to fix that.  If he can start hitting the short throws with much more consistency (hitting guys in stride) I believe we have our FQB - but we really don't know if he's capable of that yet.

 

[Bronx]

26 minutes ago, PorP said:

Haters... engage power rings.....unite

Hi Kelly! 

c

 

[The Crusher]

7 minutes ago, jgb said:

If the QB doesn’t perform well, we will hear how the new wesponz looked good on paper but were overrated.

Stop, that’s not even remotely true. If the QB doesn’t perform well, he’s simply not the guy for the job. Other than Mac Jones none of the QB’s drafted were ready to start. Zach by far least ready to start partly do to lack of competition and an O line in college  made the defensive front look like they were counting to 10 Mississippi before rushing every play. I know most enjoy disrespecting my boy, but mark my words, he’s got another one or two in him. I know this and the front office knows this. Rest assure. He stays healthy we play meaningful games Late.

[PorP]

9 minutes ago, jgb said:

Everyone is the hero fighting forces of darkness is their own story. Do you.

I don't play d&d bro but I'll take your word for it

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, PorP said:

I don't play d&d bro but I'll take your word for it

You even got rejected at the nerd table in the cafeteria huh? Sorry about that

[Spoot-Face]

10 minutes ago, PorP said:

We definitely agree. And I do think some of the balls off receivers hands were Zach's fault. 

My thing I guess,  we went from a 3-4 to a 4-3, a west coast offense,  new coaching staff,  2 new primary receivers,  1 new primary RB and still no TE's all in 4 months. 

No way is that on the shoulders of 1 guy,  but QB is the only position on the team that pays for the mistakes of other positions. Do I think Zack was flawless... no he played like a rookie.  Do I think some of Zach's stats came from other position groups learning or being poor... yes. 

There were definitely many people around Zach who were failing at their job last year, but it's not like he gave us a whole lot to be excited about other than anecdotal tropes like "potential" and "if he does this", or "if he learns how to do that".

It's all meaningless until he can show us when it matters, and anyone who acknowledges that isn't a "hater", just skeptical.

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Spoot-Face said:

There were definitely many people around Zach who were failing at their job last year, but it's not like he gave us a whole lot to be excited about other than anecdotal tropes like "potential" and "if he does this", or "if he learns how to do that".

It's all meaningless until he can show us when it matters, and anyone who acknowledges that isn't a "hater", just skeptical.

No! You must choose your irrevocable path now: Hater Hal or Lover Lou. 

No room for nuance.

Signed,

The Internet, 2022.

[PorP]

9 minutes ago, jgb said:

You even got rejected at the nerd table in the cafeteria huh? Sorry about that

Scarred me for life bro

[Warfish]

Just a quick look at the claim and the numbers:

The claim is 10% were receiver errors:

Zach had 383 attempts in 2021. (Source Pro Football Reference)

So 10% of that is 38.3.  So the claim is 38.3 of Zach's passes were not completed because of receiver error (they actually say 37, because it's not really 10% it's 9.something%, no stress there). 

We know from the oft reposted NBC Sports "Passes Dropped by Team" list that the Jets dropped a total of 25 passes, good for T4th worst in the NFL.  That accounts for a goodly portion of the claimed 37 error passes.

Per the article, they claim "We have six additional receiver fault incompletion types, in addition to dropped passes, each of which can cost the quarterback a completion and the corresponding yardage and potential score." yet they do not, as far as I can can tell, list them, or detail any breakdown or evidence of them for the list.  They just say "37" for Zach, which makes verification of the other "six additional" error types quite difficult if not effectively impossible.

Ultimately, had every one of Zach's drops, and the "six other types" of errors not happened, changing no other variables of course (because we cannot know what would have happened next, it could have been 5 for 5, or 0 for 3 and an INT), his completion percentage would have been 65.3% (213 actual comp + 37 errors)/383 attempts.

For the lols, if we look at another QB with a ton of drops (33) and receiver errors (47 per PFF), Justin Herbert, his actual comp. rate was 65.9%.

His team led the league in drops with 33.  The PFF article raises that with their "six other types" to 47 total.

Herbert was vastly more healthy and prolific than Zach, with a 443-672 attempt/comp number. 

Give him 47 more completions, and he has 490.

490/672 would be 72.9%.

 

 

[jgb]

1 minute ago, PorP said:

Scarred me for life bro

I feel you. I was accepted and it scarred me too!

[PorP]

8 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

There were definitely many people around Zach who were failing at their job last year, but it's not like he gave us a whole lot to be excited about other than anecdotal tropes like "potential" and "if he does this", or "if he learns how to do that".

It's all meaningless until he can show us when it matters, and anyone who acknowledges that isn't a "hater", just skeptical.

Uncertainty does not equal never saying anything positive (edit)

You're debating a point I didn't make

[The Crusher]

Just now, jgb said:

I feel you. I was accepted and it scarred me too!

I wasn’t, spent my high school years in the cafeteria asking  people,” you gonna eat that?” 

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Warfish said:

Just a quick look at the claim and the numbers:

The claim is 10% were receiver errors:

Zach had 383 attempts in 2021. (Source Pro Football Reference)

So 10% of that is 38.3.  So the claim is 38.3 of Zach's passes were not completed because of receiver error. 

We know from the oft reposted NBC Sports "Passes Dropped by Team" list that the Jets dropped a total of 25 passes, good for T4th worst in the NFL.  That accounts for a goodly portion of the claimed 37 error passes.

Per the article, they claim "We have six additional receiver fault incompletion types, in addition to dropped passes, each of which can cost the quarterback a completion and the corresponding yardage and potential score." yet they do not, as far as I can can tell, list them, or detail any breakdown or evidence of them for the list.  They just say "37" for Zach, which makes verification of the other "six additional" error types quite difficult if not effectively impossible.

Ultimately, had every one of Zach's drops, and the "six other types" of errors not happened, changing no other variables of course (because we cannot know what would have happened next, it could have been 5 for 5, or 03 and an INT), his completion percentage would have been 65.3% (213 actual comp + 37 errors)/383 attempts.

For the lols, if we look at another QB with a ton of drops (33) and receiver errors (47 per PFF), Justin Herbert, his actual comp. rate was 65.9%.

His team led the league in drops with 33.  The PFF article raises that with their "six other types" to 47 total.

Herbert was vastly more healthy and prolific than Zach, with a 443-672 attempt/comp number. 

Give him 47 more completions, and he has 490.

490/672 would be 72.9%.

 

 

Many point to drops and say “see the QB’s competition percentage would’ve been respectable!” But if you do the same for all the QBs, back near the bottom lol.

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

I wasn’t, spent my high school years in the cafeteria asking  people,” you gonna eat that?” 

Surprised you asked

[win4ever]

I think there's a lot of factors that played into the bad stats, that have been partially fixed.  

1.  None of the defenses were scared of the tight ends last year, which meant a ton of floating coverages from defenses.  If you have a stud like Kittle, a defender or more is dedicated to him, so that defender has to read the TE before worrying about anything else.  This is why you will sometimes see stud TEs wide open on delayed releases because the dedicated defender assumes the guy is blocking and hurries to a different position.  When you have average guys, it's still the same but not quite as rigid.  When you have absolute losers like we did, the defense doesn't care, they play it the opposite way.  They have defenders is space that make up the ground IF the TE releases.  The delayed release, chip block, or just regular routes are useless because we had guys that could legitimately be covered by defensive ends.  I don't think I've ever seen a group that couldn't catch or run this badly.    

They've fixed it to the point that it's average now, which fits in much better with the offense.  The wide zone running scheme needs good tight ends, that can block and catch because both the passing and running game feeds from it.  If you are playing defense against the run, you better commit to getting around the TE, which works wonders for play action because the TE can chip release behind you, for easy passes.  If you are playing defense for the pass, you can no longer be aggressive on the run blocking either, allowing the TE to set the edge.  

I'm not saying this year is going to solve everything, but there's a reason the Jets went heavy on in-line TEs rather than an Evan Engram or Greg Dulcich because they need the versatility.  I think there's a good chance they carry 4 TEs on the team, especially if Cager/Yeboah step up.  

2.  There's a big infusion of option routes around the league, and I think the Pats were really the first to master it.  Essentially, WRs have the option to choose their routes at the stem based on the defense.  A simple version would be an in-route against man where you continue to run, and an in-route against zone where you sit.   A more complicated one would be deal with revolving safeties, as if one of them blitzed, the WR may have an option to cut into the vacated spot at the stem.  Both of these require timing with the WR plus knowledge of how they read that play.  You watch someone like Gronk with Brady, they are on the same page when it comes to these option routes because they know exactly what the other is going to read, which allows Brady to anticipate, instead of waiting to see the move first.  You would see this often in NE where if they had a miscommunication, Brady would lecture the receiver on the route because it's not the receiver screwing up a 10 yard slant, but not reading the safety and turning that slant into an in route to under-cut the safety over the top.  

I think this is being fixed as well, because of all the throwing camps Wilson has been engaged in.  The other aspect was that, it was a new system for everyone last year.  Corey Davis, Moore, pretty much everyone were new to system along with the QB, so they weren't making the same reads.  

There's an interception by JC Jackson in the first Pats game, where Wilson throws it behind Corey Davis, gets tipped and intercepted.  The problem with the play is that the LB (or safety, can't really tell) blitzes up the middle, and Davis is the first read.  He's supposed to run a 10 or so yard in-route.  However, once the safety blitzed, he needs to cut that yardage short because he no longer needs to run beyond the LB/S zone, the middle of the field is open.  Davis still runs his route without the option, Wilson has a free runner up the middle, and makes a bad throw.  If Davis makes the in route into a 5 yard slant route, he has inside leverage on JC Jackson.  However, Davis runs the route as if setting up the in-cut, which allows Jackson to undercut it.  

I think a second year together with Davis/Moore/Berrios will go a long way.  

3.  Wilson needs to understand the levels of the field, and that you can't just call 4 verticals because you have a strong arm.  This goes back to like Madden days.  I remember playing Madden in like 2005 or so, and you could literally call a Hail Mary on every play, just wait until the WRs run all the way down the field, and then run back towards you to make the easy 40 yard completion.  Over the years, that became impossible.  While not nearly the same level of adjustment, it's similar to throwing constantly down the field at BYU vs the NFL.  Just because you have a strong arm doesn't mean you can out throw the defense consistently.  As we saw with Mike White, you have to take the underneath stuff consistently, so defenses have to pick and choose which areas to defend.  

Wilson didn't realize this early, so he would throw it into tight windows where his guys wouldn't make the play.  Later on in the year, he realized it but had no one to get open, which is why I think he started to rush more often.  I remember this being an issue with Fitzpatrick as well when he was around, especially a game against the Eagles.  They would consistently rush 3 in a wide formation, drop back into coverage, basically daring Fitz to run, and he would just bounce around the pocket.  All Fitz had to do was read the nose tackle and run in the A/B gap around it for open field.  

In the same sense, the Jets didn't have the players to threaten all levels of the field, which is probably why they were in on Hill.  They needed someone to threaten the screen/deep pass game along with Moore.  I think their set up now is much better than last year, albeit not ideal.  Moore/WIlson can threaten screen pass or deep, depending on the depth of the CB.  Davis/CJ/Conklin can threaten the middle of the field.  Carter/Hall out of the backfield.  They can actually force the defense to cover all areas of the field, which allows for mismatches, and misdirection to be effective.  

Wilson still has a bunch of issues to work around, especially his pre-snap reads and pocket integrity.  But I can't remember a time where the Jets actually built the offense to suit their QB.  Possibly Sanchez when they got Edwards/Holmes/Keller but they didn't sustain that one.