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PFF - "No QB saw a greater % of his attempts fall incomplete due to some kind of receiver error than Zach Wilson"


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Just now, jgb said:

Many point to drops and say “see the QB’s competition percentage would’ve been respectable!” But if you do the same for all the QBs, back near the bottom lol.

Well, it depends of course. 

A 65% QB with a great WR corp that drops few balls and makes few mistakes (say, Seattle, with only 9 drops, and per PFF only 15 total receiver errors) doesn't really move the needle much.

He was 64.8% actual comp. rate in 2021 (259/400).

Give him back the 15 errors, and he's now 274/400, or 68.5.  Higher, yes, but not that much so.

Of course, this is an extreme example, fewest errors in the league for a guy who already was a high comp. % passer. 

In more general terms, yes, your point is valid. 

The goalposts rightfully shift for the entire data set if we start "giving back" in order to validate one guy, you have to give back to all of them, then remeasure against each other to really get a good picture of QB comp. rate sans claimed receiver errors.

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5 minutes ago, PorP said:

Uncertainty does not equal never saying anything positive (edit)

You're debating a point I didn't make

In your first post you refer to the "haters". Then again in your 2nd post.

Unless you were just being tongue-in-cheek. But, that's a term that gets thrown around a lot around here nowadays.

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2 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

In your first post you refer to the "haters". Then again in your 2nd post.

Unless you were just being tongue-in-cheek. But, that's a term that gets thrown around a lot around here nowadays.

“Kid” used to be my least favorite overused term on here. How I yearn for those days again.

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1 minute ago, Spoot-Face said:

In your first post you refer to the "haters". Then again in your 2nd post.

Unless you were just being tongue-in-cheek. But, that's a term that gets thrown around a lot around here nowadays.

I think if you go back and re-read my 2nd post. I quantify hater as exactly what you just quoted.

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22 minutes ago, PorP said:

I think if you go back and re-read my 2nd post. I quantify hater as exactly what you just quoted.

I think the issue is that many see the use of the term as an unserious and dismissive debate tactic. This is a Jets messageboard. There are no “haters” of the Jets or their players here.

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6 minutes ago, PorP said:

I think if you go back and re-read my 2nd post. I quantify hater as exactly what you just quoted.

 

4 minutes ago, jgb said:

I think the issue is that many see the use of the term as an unserious debate tactic. This is a Jets messageboard. There are no “haters” of the Jets or their players here.

☝️

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3 minutes ago, jgb said:

I think the issue is that many see the use of the term as an unserious debate tactic. This is a Jets messageboard. There are no “haters” of the Jets or their players here.

For the Jets I agree....

Players.... you're in the same threads I'm in and you see the Becton / Wilson posts.  You know that's not true. 

If the word hater is the problem,  I'm happy to use pessimist,  negative Nancy,  d-bag, loser or whatever the preferred term is... 

But don't tell me there is no hate on players

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1 minute ago, PorP said:

For the Jets I agree....

Players.... you're in the same threads I'm in and you see the Becton / Wilson posts.  You know that's not true. 

If the word hater is the problem,  I'm happy to use pessimist,  negative Nancy,  d-bag, loser or whatever the preferred term is... 

But don't tell me there is no hate on players

I am saying there is no hate, actually. Pessimist is fair. 

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13 minutes ago, jgb said:

“Kid” used to be my least favorite overused term on here. How I yearn for those days again.

If a player is younger than both of my children, which most NFL, but not all, NFL players are.  Referring to them as a "kid" seems appropriate to me.  

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5 minutes ago, Lith said:

If a player is younger than both of my children, which most NFL, but not all, NFL players are.  Referring to them as a "kid" seems appropriate to me.  

Yes but it’s never used in a negative sense “the kid is lazy/sucks/etc.” It always proceeds a positive assessment/defense of poor performance. It’s a loaded word thus I don’t like it.

This is just a pet peeve and I recognize it is not rational.

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These two statements are not mutually exclusive:

  1. Zach Wilson had a disappointing rookie year and needs to be better in 2022.
  2. Zach Wilson's receiving corps was disappointing in 2021 and needs to be better in 2022.

Also curious as to why one is branded a hater for saying the Jets QB was bad and needs to be better; yet those who say the receivers were bad and need to be better are the good loyal fans.

I do expect better play from both Wilson and his weapons in 2022.  Whether they will be good enough to significantly change the w-l record.  That remains to be seen.

 

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2 minutes ago, jgb said:

This is just a pet peeve and I recognize it is not rational.

Given how much time we spend on this board, talking about this team all offseason long.  None of us are rational. 

Most rational thing that you may have done recently was stepping away for a few months.

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1 hour ago, bitonti said:

there's also this stat about Zach Wilson had more guys stopped at the 1 yard line than any other QB 

these are true facts and entertaining mind games but it all falls under "the lady doth protest too much" 

don't use semantics to prove that Zach Wilson is going to be awesome.  Indeed...

just win a damn division game

QB rating, completion percentage, blah blah blah

the only stat that anyone should care about is wins. and as the 2 overall pick it's his job to elevate the bums around him, not everyone else's job to be perfect. 

Amen bro... enough of the rebuild marrative, just start winning some games. 

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9 minutes ago, Lith said:

Also curious as to why one is branded a hater for saying the Jets QB was bad and needs to be better; yet those who say the receivers were bad and need to be better are the good loyal fans.

I’ve asked this myself several times and haven’t received a satisfactory response. Why are those who defend one guy Real Jets Fans™ when those that stick up for the coaches/staff/other players/etc. (over 100 people) and opine they are being held back by that one guy are called loser-mindset SOJFs, trolls, haters, etc.

Those that think the team is only one guy away from respectability are actually the more positive ones…

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5 minutes ago, Lith said:

Given how much time we spend on this board, talking about this team all offseason long.  None of us are rational. 

Most rational thing that you may have done recently was stepping away for a few months.

Lol yeah for all involved ;) 

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5 minutes ago, Lith said:

These two statements are not mutually exclusive:

  1. Zach Wilson had a disappointing rookie year and needs to be better in 2022.
  2. Zach Wilson's receiving corps was disappointing in 2021 and needs to be better in 2022.

Also curious as to why one is branded a hater for saying the Jets QB was bad and needs to be better; yet those who say the receivers were bad and need to be better are the good loyal fans.

I do expect better play from both Wilson and his weapons in 2022.  Whether they will be good enough to significantly change the w-l record.  That remains to be seen.

 

Not to be a word smith here but .... "something sucks and needs to be better" is not really negative,  it's a reality followed by the recognition there is potential for improvement. 

That is different than "Becton is a fat, lazy,  P.O.S" or "Zach sucks we should have drafted... blah"

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Where do people come up with this garbage and how has do they have the time?  Its getting out of hand with all these stupid silly made up stats.  Any bozo can come with anything these days and people bite on it.  This isnt real.  This isnt quantifiable.  The idea that there selling this with any shed of accuracy and legitimacy is ridiculous.  lol

I wonder why these terrible disappointing players who kept letting down Wilson were able to turn it on for the other QB's?  Do they have a made up stat for what happened those games? 

My favorite part was, "that why the Jets were so keen to attack WR" - oh really?  lmfao.  The Jets added 1 new WR, in the draft.  They added TE's, is that what he meant?  Otherwise, I dont call sitting at your allotted draft spot and taking a WR who was arguably the BAP as "attacking receiver this offseason"  There was no attack, they signed zero veteran WR's.   The resigned Berrios and drafted a WR.

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1 hour ago, jgb said:

No! You must choose your irrevocable path now: Hater Hal or Lover Lou. 

No room for nuance.

Signed,

The Internet, 2022.

Ok.  If I must make a choice now this Hal chooses Zach love. 

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Just a quick look at the claim and the numbers:

The claim is 10% were receiver errors:

Zach had 383 attempts in 2021. (Source Pro Football Reference)

So 10% of that is 38.3.  So the claim is 38.3 of Zach's passes were not completed because of receiver error (they actually say 37, because it's not really 10% it's 9.something%, no stress there). 

We know from the oft reposted NBC Sports "Passes Dropped by Team" list that the Jets dropped a total of 25 passes, good for T4th worst in the NFL.  That accounts for a goodly portion of the claimed 37 error passes.

Per the article, they claim "We have six additional receiver fault incompletion types, in addition to dropped passes, each of which can cost the quarterback a completion and the corresponding yardage and potential score." yet they do not, as far as I can can tell, list them, or detail any breakdown or evidence of them for the list.  They just say "37" for Zach, which makes verification of the other "six additional" error types quite difficult if not effectively impossible.

Ultimately, had every one of Zach's drops, and the "six other types" of errors not happened, changing no other variables of course (because we cannot know what would have happened next, it could have been 5 for 5, or 0 for 3 and an INT), his completion percentage would have been 65.3% (213 actual comp + 37 errors)/383 attempts.

For the lols, if we look at another QB with a ton of drops (33) and receiver errors (47 per PFF), Justin Herbert, his actual comp. rate was 65.9%.

His team led the league in drops with 33.  The PFF article raises that with their "six other types" to 47 total.

Herbert was vastly more healthy and prolific than Zach, with a 443-672 attempt/comp number. 

Give him 47 more completions, and he has 490.

490/672 would be 72.9%.

 

 

The summary of every close looks at PFF data, “PFF sucks at everything but producing worthless clickbait data.”
 

If you don’t like this, they will have another “Zach is the worst” article next week.  

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1 minute ago, Hal N of Provo said:

Ok.  If I must make a choice now this Hal chooses Zach love. 

The summary of every close looks at PFF data, “PFF sucks at everything but producing worthless clickbait data.”
 

If you don’t like this, they will have another “Zach is the worst” article next week.  

I like pff when it supports my narrative... like Max Mitchell ?

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3 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

The summary of every close looks at PFF data, “PFF sucks at everything but producing worthless clickbait data.”

If you don’t like this, they will have another “Zach is the worst” article next week.  

I don't have any like or dislike for the PFF article, it's reporting facts as they see it.  I would have liked more on their "6 other types of received error" and how they stat/document that out beyond being the "PFF eye test", but that aside, the analysis is similar to one I've done several times here at JN.  i.e. the Comparative Effect of Drops analysis.  Nothing wrong with that IMO.  I respect their effort to do a deeper, more Baseball-like analysis of available data.

I generally don't read PFF beyond what gets posted here, so if they do in fact write a "Zach Sucks" article next week, I guess I'll see it after someone reposts it.

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34 minutes ago, PorP said:

Not to be a word smith here but .... "something sucks and needs to be better" is not really negative,  it's a reality followed by the recognition there is potential for improvement. 

That is different than "Becton is a fat, lazy,  P.O.S" or "Zach sucks we should have drafted... blah"

You have never seen that language or tone from me.  At least not that I can recall. 

I do agree with you on Becton.  I don't see the same reaction towards Zach.  Disappointment in his play, yes, but not the same level of vitriol.  Jet fans are rooting for Zach to succeed in 22 regardless of what we think of his 21 season.   I know I am.

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16 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

Where do people come up with this garbage and how has do they have the time?  Its getting out of hand with all these stupid silly made up stats.  Any bozo can come with anything these days and people bite on it.  This isnt real.  This isnt quantifiable.  The idea that there selling this with any shed of accuracy and legitimacy is ridiculous.  lol

I wonder why these terrible disappointing players who kept letting down Wilson were able to turn it on for the other QB's?  Do they have a made up stat for what happened those games? 

My favorite part was, "that why the Jets were so keen to attack WR" - oh really?  lmfao.  The Jets added 1 new WR, in the draft.  They added TE's, is that what he meant?  Otherwise, I dont call sitting at your allotted draft spot and taking a WR who was arguably the BAP as "attacking receiver this offseason"  There was no attack, they signed zero veteran WR's.   The resigned Berrios and drafted a WR.

Well, to be fair, apparently they were going hard after a number of FA WRs, because that's all we heard all spring, but none of them wanted to sign here, lol.

I still expected them to sign someone other than Berrios, but I guess it's still possible once roster cut downs start, depending on the development of Mims and Jeff Smith (lol).

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1 minute ago, Lith said:

You have never seen that language or tone from me.  At least not that I can recall. 

I do agree with you on Becton.  I don't see the same reaction towards Zach.  Disappointment in his play, yes, but not the same level of vitriol.  Jet fans are rooting for Zach to succeed in 22 regardless of what we think of his 21 season.   I know I am.

To this day, though, Zach is giving us more reason to believe in him than Becton, so I can understand the dissent towards Becton. A month ago I would've said the Becton doubt was being overblown, but not so much anymore.

Still (shrugs) both players will show us definitely this season.

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3 hours ago, Morrissey said:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-relationship-between-dropped-passes-quarterback-performance

"No quarterback saw a greater percentage of his attempts fall incomplete due to some kind of receiver error than Zach Wilson during his rookie season. Almost 10% of his attempts fell into this category, a couple of percentage points higher than any other quarterback. This was part of the reason the Jets were so keen to attack receiver again this offseason and ensure that Wilson’s supporting cast is as strong as it can be.

Rookie Garrett Wilson was added to the mix, and the team added yet more reinforcements to his protection along the offensive line. They will be hoping and expecting that this rate falls for Wilson next year."

That's what it felt like watching. He also probably led league in unforced errors first three quarters of season, but if you were to add half of those errors back he'd of been over the 60% bar that seems to always come up with rookie QBs. 

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5 minutes ago, Lith said:

You have never seen that language or tone from me.  At least not that I can recall. 

I do agree with you on Becton.  I don't see the same reaction towards Zach.  Disappointment in his play, yes, but not the same level of vitriol.  Jet fans are rooting for Zach to succeed in 22 regardless of what we think of his 21 season.   I know I am.

Me to on Zach. 

Irony is I didn't accuse any specific user of hatred. Idk if it was self identification or the Pavlov's dog effect but it went sideways in a hurry

 

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12 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

Well, to be fair, apparently they were going hard after a number of FA WRs, because that's all we heard all spring, but none of them wanted to sign here, lol.

I still expected them to sign someone other than Berrios, but I guess it's still possible once roster cut downs start, depending on the development of Mims and Jeff Smith (lol).

I honestly dont remember the Jets interested in a single FA WR.  I remember the trade talks that were never going to happen and I remember being in on Hill but if they were feeling desperate at WR, you'd think they would have at least brought Cole or Crowder back.  Either way, they certainty didnt attack the market, they literally added 1 new face and that was via the draft.

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3 minutes ago, PorP said:

Me to on Zach. 

Irony is I didn't accuse any specific user of hatred. Idk if it was self identification or the Pavlov's dog effect but it went sideways in a hurry

 

All good.

You mean, something you said on Jet Nation was taken out of context and blown out of proportion?  Shocking!!!  I guess you are a full fledged member of JN now.  Welcome

None of my comments were directed at you specifically.  I did not even realize that you had used the term that spurred the conversation. 

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