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PFF - "No QB saw a greater % of his attempts fall incomplete due to some kind of receiver error than Zach Wilson"


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7 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

I honestly dont remember the Jets interested in a single FA WR.  I remember the trade talks that were never going to happen and I remember being in on Hill but if they were feeling desperate at WR, you'd think they would have at least brought Cole or Crowder back.  Either way, they certainty didnt attack the market, they literally added 1 new face and that was via the draft.

Ah, you may be right. I may be conflating the trade talks with FA talks. I can't even recall who the FA WRs were. Still, they supposedly were active in trade talks, just nothing materialized.

I really don't think they're loosing much in either Cole or Crowder. Cole, IIRC, wasn't spectacular, and Crowder (while I liked him in the past for us) is kinda redundant with both the emergence of Berrios and Moore.

Honestly, unless we're dumping Davis (which I don't think is feasible) then there was really only one spot available in the top 4 after resigning Berrios, and that went to Garret Wilson. Any other acquisition is going to be fighting with Mims and Jeff Smith for the final two spots, and isn't going to have any meaningful impact anyway. We could still see them add a vet when roster cuts start.

Plus, I think the revamped TE room will have waaay more of an impact than the bottom 3 or 4 WRs will.

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15 minutes ago, Lith said:

All good.

You mean, something you said on Jet Nation was taken out of context and blown out of proportion?  Shocking!!!  I guess you are a full fledged member of JN now.  Welcome

None of my comments were directed at you specifically.  I did not even realize that you had used the term that spurred the conversation. 

Personally, I just wanted to call him Taylor Swift and have a laugh.

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1 hour ago, PorP said:

For the Jets I agree....

Players.... you're in the same threads I'm in and you see the Becton / Wilson posts.  You know that's not true. 

If the word hater is the problem,  I'm happy to use pessimist,  negative Nancy,  d-bag, loser or whatever the preferred term is... 

But don't tell me there is no hate on players

ESP is a gift.  Gifted is the correct term. 

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Shows how poor Zach’s supporting cast was last year. Assuming guys stay healthy, he now has at least an average supporting cast. All else equal, his completion percentage should be around 59-60% just by having a middle of the pack supporting cast.

This is one reason why expectations need to be high. If he complete’s 60% of his passes this year with a healthy supporting cast, that likely means he did not improve much.

While it’s cool to show that there was plenty of blame to go around, this tells me the bar for Zach needs to be north of 60%. Something like 62-65%. 

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2 hours ago, Warfish said:

Just a quick look at the claim and the numbers:

The claim is 10% were receiver errors:

Zach had 383 attempts in 2021. (Source Pro Football Reference)

So 10% of that is 38.3.  So the claim is 38.3 of Zach's passes were not completed because of receiver error (they actually say 37, because it's not really 10% it's 9.something%, no stress there). 

We know from the oft reposted NBC Sports "Passes Dropped by Team" list that the Jets dropped a total of 25 passes, good for T4th worst in the NFL.  That accounts for a goodly portion of the claimed 37 error passes.

Per the article, they claim "We have six additional receiver fault incompletion types, in addition to dropped passes, each of which can cost the quarterback a completion and the corresponding yardage and potential score." yet they do not, as far as I can can tell, list them, or detail any breakdown or evidence of them for the list.  They just say "37" for Zach, which makes verification of the other "six additional" error types quite difficult if not effectively impossible.

Ultimately, had every one of Zach's drops, and the "six other types" of errors not happened, changing no other variables of course (because we cannot know what would have happened next, it could have been 5 for 5, or 0 for 3 and an INT), his completion percentage would have been 65.3% (213 actual comp + 37 errors)/383 attempts.

For the lols, if we look at another QB with a ton of drops (33) and receiver errors (47 per PFF), Justin Herbert, his actual comp. rate was 65.9%.

His team led the league in drops with 33.  The PFF article raises that with their "six other types" to 47 total.

Herbert was vastly more healthy and prolific than Zach, with a 443-672 attempt/comp number. 

Give him 47 more completions, and he has 490.

490/672 would be 72.9%.

 

 

calculating the hangover GIF

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13 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

Ah, you may be right. I may be conflating the trade talks with FA talks. I can't even recall who the FA WRs were. Still, they supposedly were active in trade talks, just nothing materialized.

I really don't think they're loosing much in either Cole or Crowder. Cole, IIRC, wasn't spectacular, and Crowder (while I liked him in the past for us) is kinda redundant with both the emergence of Berrios and Moore.

Honestly, unless we're dumping Davis (which I don't think is feasible) then there was really only one spot available in the top 4 after resigning Berrios, and that went to Garret Wilson. Any other acquisition is going to be fighting with Mims and Jeff Smith for the final two spots, and isn't going to have any meaningful impact anyway. We could still see them add a vet when roster cuts start.

Plus, I think the revamped TE room will have waaay more of an impact than the bottom 3 or 4 WRs will.

I think we're getting off course here, lol, I was just saying is we didnt "attack" the WR position by adding 1 new face this offseason. That's all.

But yes, I agree with everything else you unnecessarily typed here and I'll add, I think they are top 5 in rush attempts w/ the addition of Hall and the versatile TE's.

 

 

 

 

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33 minutes ago, Lith said:

All good.

You mean, something you said on Jet Nation was taken out of context and blown out of proportion?  Shocking!!!  I guess you are a full fledged member of JN now.  Welcome

None of my comments were directed at you specifically.  I did not even realize that you had used the term that spurred the conversation. 

I didn't think you were directing at me and I wasn't at you either. 

Thanks all for the warm welcome..

 

Signed

Taylor Swift

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21 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

I think we're getting off course here, lol, I was just saying is we didnt "attack" the WR position by adding 1 new face this offseason. That's all.

But yes, I agree with everything else you unnecessarily typed here and I'll add, I think they are top 5 in rush attempts w/ the addition of Hall and the versatile TE's.

 

 

 

 

I would be surprised if these stats are specific to just WRs. When they say receiver, good chance they are including the TEs.

This was a point of debate when Football Outsiders listed their ranking of top receiving units. They had to clarify that their rankings include TEs. 

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1 hour ago, Biggs said:

This is like a re-run of the Sam Darnold show.  I'm starting to be concerned that the Zach haters are on to something.  

It is exactly the same as the Sam show.

If you necro those threads and change the names, you wouldn’t be able to tell them apart. The only difference I can tell is we didn’t add Jordan Palmer to the CS midway through Sam’s rookie season.

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13 minutes ago, Green Ghost said:

It is exactly the same as the Sam show.

If you necro those threads and change the names, you wouldn’t be able to tell them apart. The only difference I can tell is we didn’t add Jordan Palmer to the CS midway through Sam’s rookie season.

Only that it is not anything like the Sam situation. 

I am not a Wilson defender or hater. I was more on the Justin Fields wagon. However, Sam Darnold did not have the same coach or system in his 2nd year. Darnold did not have upgrades at receivers, WRs and TEs, or running backs. Darnold did not have continuity even at GM. 

It is possible that Wilson is not the guy, but since he is in the team. Let´s give the guy a little support. What do you say?

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41 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

I think we're getting off course here, lol, I was just saying is we didnt "attack" the WR position by adding 1 new face this offseason. That's all.

But yes, I agree with everything else you unnecessarily typed here and I'll add, I think they are top 5 in rush attempts w/ the addition of Hall and the versatile TE's.

Yeah, I kinda forgot what my initial point there was, for a second, lol.

I'll just say: no, they didn't attack the WR group, specifically, only bringing in one new face, but that doesn't take into account what they did at the TE position.

❤️ u always

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4 hours ago, JiFapono said:

Where do people come up with this garbage and how has do they have the time?  Its getting out of hand with all these stupid silly made up stats.  Any bozo can come with anything these days and people bite on it.  This isnt real.  This isnt quantifiable.  The idea that there selling this with any shed of accuracy and legitimacy is ridiculous.  lol

I wonder why these terrible disappointing players who kept letting down Wilson were able to turn it on for the other QB's?  Do they have a made up stat for what happened those games? 

My favorite part was, "that why the Jets were so keen to attack WR" - oh really?  lmfao.  The Jets added 1 new WR, in the draft.  They added TE's, is that what he meant?  Otherwise, I dont call sitting at your allotted draft spot and taking a WR who was arguably the BAP as "attacking receiver this offseason"  There was no attack, they signed zero veteran WR's.   The resigned Berrios and drafted a WR.

Don't forget that they apparently acquired Mims this offseason too. 

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5 hours ago, Hal N of Provo said:

As a Jets fan rooting for Zach’s success I’m sure you hope some excuses are valid. 

Rather than hope the excuses are valid I prefer to hope he can correct the issues.

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2 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

The Mighty Jets are playing coy, ready to unleash all their power on the mighty Ravens week 1.

Attack Falling GIF

Zach is ready to pounce!

panther fest pounce GIF by UW-Milwaukee

 

So basically they’re saving the good plays for Week 1.

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On 6/17/2022 at 8:52 PM, Biggs said:

This is like a re-run of the Sam Darnold show.  I'm starting to be concerned that the Zach haters are on to something.  

Last 3 failed Jets “QBs of the future” all failed for the same reason: slow football brain disease. Wasn’t the arm strength, the physical capability, etc. All three — Sanchez/Geno/Darnold — were also hailed as “film junkies” and 2 of them enjoyed long backup careers after busting (with Sam on the way) so it wasn’t work ethic, either. Let’s hope the game slows down for the current QB. If we don’t see signs of that this year it is officially over.

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On 6/17/2022 at 12:06 PM, PorP said:

This is precisely what irks me about the talking heads rating Zack and the haters here talking about completion %.

His completion percentage,  yards and int's should have all been better but suffered at least a little due to some bad receiving. Further a lot were on 3rd downs which turned into 3 & outs.

Even if only 1/2 the drops weren't. We'd be talking over 60% completion,  alot more attempts and yards due, maybe td's to and definitely less int's.

I said it before, I’ll say it again. Zach should have NEVER seen the field in 2021. Period. Mahomes sat a year. Rodgers sat like 10 years 😂.  It wasn’t so much that he wasn’t ready, which was clearly evident, but he was playing under extremely difficult conditions, namely bad  OL, rookie HC/OC. The chemistry between himself and the WR’s was at times non-existant. WR injuries, terrible OL protection, getting used to NFL game speed, learning a whole new system, getting injured - it was all to much to put on Zach and was dumb to rush him. 

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On 6/17/2022 at 2:58 PM, JiFapono said:

I honestly dont remember the Jets interested in a single FA WR.  I remember the trade talks that were never going to happen and I remember being in on Hill but if they were feeling desperate at WR, you'd think they would have at least brought Cole or Crowder back.  Either way, they certainty didnt attack the market, they literally added 1 new face and that was via the draft.

I think they legitimately wanted to make the big splash trade at WR which also would’ve only brought one new WR onto the team (while losing two in Crowder and Cole). When those opportunities evaporated, they turned their focus to the draft. The WR market gave Kirk $18M/year, Robinson $15M, Valdes-Scantling and Gage $10M. I’m not sure any of those guys move the needle in a way that justifies their price tags. Not the way Tyreek Hill (happy to miss), Ridley, Brown, or Adams would’ve. Joe Douglas places a value on a player that he sticks to, and he’s willing to be outbid. This is different than the Tanny & Mac regimes, and I’m happy for it. 
 
I also think there was a conscious shift to the TE position this year. Last year the Jets were dead last in the league in attempts to TEs (77), with less than half the targets the top five-ish teams had (Miami was #1 with 174). That’s going to change in a big way this season. 

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1 hour ago, slats said:

I think they legitimately wanted to make the big splash trade at WR which also would’ve only brought one new WR onto the team (while losing two in Crowder and Cole). When those opportunities evaporated, they turned their focus to the draft. The WR market gave Kirk $18M/year, Robinson $15M, Valdes-Scantling and Gage $10M. I’m not sure any of those guys move the needle in a way that justifies their price tags. Not the way Tyreek Hill (happy to miss), Ridley, Brown, or Adams would’ve. Joe Douglas places a value on a player that he sticks to, and he’s willing to be outbid. This is different than the Tanny & Mac regimes, and I’m happy for it. 
 
I also think there was a conscious shift to the TE position this year. Last year the Jets were dead last in the league in attempts to TEs (77), with less than half the targets the top five-ish teams had (Miami was #1 with 174). That’s going to change in a big way this season. 

They certainly were tied to every major WR trade talk but who truly knows how serious those rumors were and if true, at what level of interest they actually had.  A phone call or two, or a weak offer with feet dug in the sand vs. truly working hard to get a deal done, IMO, are two very different behaviors and again, not "attacking" the WR market.  Which I should preface, I'm just critiquing the article, not JD who I think has done a great job of surrounding Wilson.

JD paid Davis, if I'm not mistaken, top 20 for the position at the time w/ the first 2 years fully guaranteed. Corey Davis, IMO, is not a top 20 WR, so I think he gets the WR FA market is bonkers and you have to overpay so would prefer to draft. My guess, in addition to bolstering the TE position, he's hoping all of his draft picks mature into the players he drafted them to be and Berrios becomes a Crowder type option in the slot.  That said, I think will monitor that situation and keep an eye on trades/maybe a veteran shakes loose or is added before the season.  More so than anything though, I truly believe they're going to be a top 5 team in rush attempts.

  

 

 

 

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On 6/20/2022 at 10:25 AM, JiFapono said:

More so than anything though, I truly believe they're going to be a top 5 team in rush attempts.

My guess is also that the Jets plan to be very run-heavy this year.  And if Zach breaks out, they'll be more than happy to adjust that plan.

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On 6/17/2022 at 12:21 PM, bitonti said:

there's also this stat about Zach Wilson had more guys stopped at the 1 yard line than any other QB 

these are true facts and entertaining mind games but it all falls under "the lady doth protest too much" 

don't use semantics to prove that Zach Wilson is going to be awesome.  

just win a damn division game. 

QB rating, completion percentage, blah blah blah

the only stat that anyone should care about is wins. and as the 2 overall pick it's his job to elevate the bums around him, not everyone else's job to be perfect. 

i actually find it stupid to pin wins or losses on the qb. 

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On 6/17/2022 at 2:03 PM, PorP said:

Not to be a word smith here but .... "something sucks and needs to be better" is not really negative,  it's a reality followed by the recognition there is potential for improvement. 

That is different than "Becton is a fat, lazy,  P.O.S" or "Zach sucks we should have drafted... blah"

Disagree with your basic interpretation.

Zach sucking really means super talented, hard working but might have no real football IQ at this level.  Real doubt about him being an NFL starting QB despite talent and work ethic.

Becton is a fat, lazy P.O.S. really means super talented NFL quality LT and could help turn this team around if he had any work ethic.

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